Coronavirus

[Gregmal]

Oh please, can anyone really imagine the level of whining and outrage if the current administration tried anything even remotely similar to China? We already have enough "authoritarian dictator" hyperbole simply because there's a Republican in office. I agree though, China's eventual handling of this was by far the best route. Its just not feasible here, regardless of who is in office because we have a different system. Thats why I actually think its a good idea for governors, like Cuomo, to immediately declare state of emergencies. If nothing else, it allows them freedoms to act as appropriate.

[Viking]

There is enough information out there on this virus for rational people to understand what is going on and where this outbreak is likely to go. Lots of other countries are a few weeks ahead of North America and each have handled it in very different ways (some very good and some very bad) and are seeing very different results for populations and economies. What are the learnings?

 

A different and interesting way to look at this outbreak is is to look at this thread in week snapshots. Go back 7 days and look at what the posting was. That is not very long ago. Go back 7 more days (14 from today) and look at the discussion. Go back 7 more days (21 from today) and so on. What are the learnings?

 

Now think forward. What will the discussion on this site be like in 7 days? And in 14 days? I have learned managing people over the years very few people can actually do this exercise very well.

 

My view is most people in the population in North America (perhaps not on this site) are still in the Disney phase (lots of people living in Kirkland, Washington would be one exception). And that is because reported cases in the US are still very low. As of today (12:33PM PST March 7), the US is at 401 confirmed cases. No big deal. That is what everyone is focussed on. Classic rear view mirror but on steroids (because we know current cases are way underreported in the US due to lack of testing). The President and his leadership group say the virus is ‘not a problem’ and that the problem is ‘contained’; for the average citizen the virus continues to be a big nothingburger. Reported cases also looks to be how the Federal Government is ratcheting up its response; they can’t move quicker because of Trump (their departments response can’t be off message from the President who deals ruthlessly with trouble makers who are off message).

 

What will case count be in 7 more days? People can’t do the math. And when they read estimates from people who can do the match they discount it or do not believe it (trust of science and media reporting is at an all time low). People want preciseness and because that is not possible With future numbers they default to reported numbers to inform their analysis. And just like the case count the news flow will also start to ramp up and get progressively worse.

 

My view is investors are in the slow boil phase right now. Similar to the general population, they are waiting for the economic impact to get announced on the nightly news or by press releases (from companies) before deciding what to do with their portfolio. They are not rationally looking at the current situation and most importantly projecting forward 1 month, 6 month and 1 year. This requires an open, learning, analytical mind, independent decision making and conviction (ability to act). Not able to calculate a precise future number they wait to be informed by what gets announced by governments and companies today.

 

Please note. I am not suggesting people sell their stocks. Buy and hold is a solid strategy and as Buffett says stocks will likely be up lots in the next 10 and 20 years as US GDP grows. He also says long term investors should be prepared for a 30 or 40 or 50% decline. Again, i am not suggesting we will see even a 20% decline. I have no idea. Everyone simply needs to execute an investment strategy that fits their intellect and emotional make up. Lots of people get the intellectual part right and the emotional part wrong and that is unfortunate.

 

What we do know is in 7 days time we WILL know more. And in about 2 or 3 more weeks the pot will be boiling. Good luck :-)

 

PS: the wild card is if a treatment for the virus is discovered. This obviously would change the game.

[John Hjorth]

Allow me to break my vow of silence with another "useless" chart. I know these charts are "useless" and "noise", so please excuse me.

 

A riddle for you supposedly intelligent individuals on here who claim to understand compounding: each dot on this chart represents a day, the last one 3/7 which is not over yet:

 

What is the doubling rate of cases ex China on this "useless" chart?

 

According to this hospital slide, they are estimating 7-10 days doubling time. Does the doubling time look a lot smaller than 7 days to you on this chart? What do you think will happen when the reality is worse than the worst case hospitals are prepping for? And remember, a lot of cases are missed (not on this chart) because places like the U.S. don't have enough test kits...

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.]

 

In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking.

[merkhet]

Allow me to break my vow of silence with another "useless" chart. I know these charts are "useless" and "noise", so please excuse me.

 

A riddle for you supposedly intelligent individuals on here who claim to understand compounding: each dot on this chart represents a day, the last one 3/7 which is not over yet:

 

What is the doubling rate of cases ex China on this "useless" chart?

 

According to this hospital slide, they are estimating 7-10 days doubling time. Does the doubling time look a lot smaller than 7 days to you on this chart? What do you think will happen when the reality is worse than the worst case hospitals are prepping for? And remember, a lot of cases are missed (not on this chart) because places like the U.S. don't have enough test kits...

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.]

 

In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking.

 

Allow me to bring a slightly different view here.

 

Dalal, we’ve actually corresponded on this before, but it seems like most of your posts here include some form of ridicule or attempt to dig on the intelligence of other people on this forum. I’ll ask you the same thing as I did last time.

 

Do you think this helps your goal of informing/persuading others? Or do you believe it hurts it? Are you being effective in your goal?

 

The last time we spoke about this, you seemed to indicate that you thought you may have over-imitated Munger in your posts here, so I would ask you to invert. How would you make it so that people are significantly less likely to listen to you?

 

And this isn’t necessarily limited to Dalal.Holdings, btw. He just happens to be the latest person to do it on this thread.

[Viking]

Oh please, can anyone really imagine the level of whining and outrage if the current administration tried anything even remotely similar to China? We already have enough "authoritarian dictator" hyperbole simply because there's a Republican in office. I agree though, China's eventual handling of this was by far the best route. Its just not feasible here, regardless of who is in office because we have a different system. Thats why I actually think its a good idea for governors, like Cuomo, to immediately declare state of emergencies. If nothing else, it allows them freedoms to act as appropriate.

 

Politicians will do what they have to do. As the pot gets closer to boiling the unthinkable will likely quickly become what is being done. I am sure no one in the Chinese government was thinking they would lock down Wuhan even a week before the decision was made. Look at what Washington State is already doing and they are at the end of week 1 of actually dealing with this issue.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Allow me to break my vow of silence with another "useless" chart. I know these charts are "useless" and "noise", so please excuse me.

 

A riddle for you supposedly intelligent individuals on here who claim to understand compounding: each dot on this chart represents a day, the last one 3/7 which is not over yet:

 

What is the doubling rate of cases ex China on this "useless" chart?

 

According to this hospital slide, they are estimating 7-10 days doubling time. Does the doubling time look a lot smaller than 7 days to you on this chart? What do you think will happen when the reality is worse than the worst case hospitals are prepping for? And remember, a lot of cases are missed (not on this chart) because places like the U.S. don't have enough test kits...

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.]

 

In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking.

 

Glad to hear it and thank you. For answers to my riddle, the doubling time for this is 3-4 days which means that 7 days is not the doubling time but the quadrupling time.

[stahleyp]

I can't help but link this to 2008 (for better or worse). Subprime contained, virus contained. How bad could this small part of the mortgage market affect the broader economy? How would something like the flu wreck the economy?

 

I'm simply looking at it like this. There seems to be a lot of excess in debt markets (loose terms) a lot of corporate buybacks (usually a bad sign), money losing companies for years and years now. This could get quite ugly. Like I said previously, I'm mostly invested but have cash.

 

Not sure how frequently Sequoia warns but this is noticeable, I think:

 

https://www.axios.com/sequoia-capital-calls-coronavirus-the-black-swan-of-2020-1b908823-989d-4f55-b526-aac846cbcd65.html

Modify message

 

This is certainly valid, but I think the broader financial system being knee capped and liquidity constrained is significantly different from the current environment and its potential fallout. Mainly because the two areas most directly effected, IMO, retail and energy, have already been decimated and gone through rugged bear markets. So it isn't as though we are swinging peak to trough like financials did in 07. Additionally, largely because we have a president quite concerned with the stock market, we will likely see stimulus pumped out, probably even at a faster rate than necessary. There will be casualties, but this isn't a system wide issue. Economically its pretty contained. Maybe you see a bit of stress in the CRE markets, but again, we've already got a bunch of this baked in over the years. How far do they go? 10% cap rates with a .7% 10 year?

 

Granted, I acknowledge how short sighted and petty Wall Street can be. But you've got so much cheap money still sloshing around in the system and an accommodative Fed that its hard to see everyone just all of a sudden decide they won't touch assets at any price. Which again, completely ignores the fact that China is steadily ramping back up and the current retail environment according to several recent surveys, is still quite robust.

 

That's all fair. All I know is that things that we never thought could happen do happen sometimes. I don't think we'll have a 2008 scenario but I didn't think we would have a 2008 scenario back in 2007 either.  :P

 

Personally, I think the system is broken. We need a good reckoning to get it back to normal. I think the economy is probably much weaker than we think. The US survived 15% rates back in the early 80s without a depression. We would most certainly have Great Depression-type event if we got back to 15% rates a few years from now (and possibly worse). Those guys managed it and, I think, with the current situation we could not.

 

We also have a media that hates the president. They will push this hard to try to get Biden elected (obviously they wouldn't do it for Bernie). I've learned to never understate the emotions of people.

[Read the Footnotes]

PS: the wild card is if a treatment for the virus is discovered. This obviously would change the game.

 

I agree with everything you have said, except I would like to add that I believe there are many wild cards.

 

[Viking]

PS: the wild card is if a treatment for the virus is discovered. This obviously would change the game.

 

I agree with everything you have said, except I would like to add that I believe there are many wild cards.

 

Agreed :-) in the current situation it is much easier to identify the possible negative outcomes than the possible positive. This is what makes investing (and life) so difficult to predict.

[John Hjorth]

Allow me to break my vow of silence with another "useless" chart. I know these charts are "useless" and "noise", so please excuse me.

 

A riddle for you supposedly intelligent individuals on here who claim to understand compounding: each dot on this chart represents a day, the last one 3/7 which is not over yet:

 

What is the doubling rate of cases ex China on this "useless" chart?

 

According to this hospital slide, they are estimating 7-10 days doubling time. Does the doubling time look a lot smaller than 7 days to you on this chart? What do you think will happen when the reality is worse than the worst case hospitals are prepping for? And remember, a lot of cases are missed (not on this chart) because places like the U.S. don't have enough test kits...

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.]

 

In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking.

 

Allow me to bring a slightly different view here.

 

Dalal, we’ve actually corresponded on this before, but it seems like most of your posts here include some form of ridicule or attempt to dig on the intelligence of other people on this forum. I’ll ask you the same thing as I did last time.

 

Do you think this helps your goal of informing/persuading others? Or do you believe it hurts it? Are you being effective in your goal?

 

The last time we spoke about this, you seemed to indicate that you thought you may have over-imitated Munger in your posts here, so I would ask you to invert. How would you make it so that people are significantly less likely to listen to you?

 

And this isn’t necessarily limited to Dalal.Holdings, btw. He just happens to be the latest person to do it on this thread.

 

merkhet,

 

And by which line of communication - here on CoBF - have you been having this line of communication with Dalal.Holdings?

[Viking]

It is very hard to understand this specific virus as it has not been seen before. But because it started in China in late December and spread from there to Asia and Europe we are very somewhat fortunate here in North America because we can see how this virus progresses with a couple of weeks lag. The extra couple of weeks are critical to slow it down. Now that it has hit Kirkland, Washington we have more information. Here is a link to the website of one of the local Seattle TV stations (Komo). The article is from today and if you read through it you will be able to learn about and better understand the complexity of the issues that communities will be facing (especially if it goes undetected). Washington State is about 10 days into its response; things are moving very quickly.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/washington-reports-16-deaths-from-covid-19-as-officials-scramble-to-contain

[Guest cherzeca]

It is very hard to understand this specific virus as it has not been seen before. But because it started in China in late December and spread from there to Asia and Europe we are very somewhat fortunate here in North America because we can see how this virus progresses with a couple of weeks lag. The extra couple of weeks are critical to slow it down. Now that it has hit Kirkland, Washington we have more information. Here is a link to the website of one of the local Seattle TV stations (Komo). The article is from today and if you read through it you will be able to learn about and better understand the complexity of the issues that communities will be facing (especially if it goes undetected). Washington State is about 10 days into its response; things are moving very quickly.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/washington-reports-16-deaths-from-covid-19-as-officials-scramble-to-contain

 

so every flu is a new virus.  vaccines only are predictive, which is why one can get a shot and then also get the flu.

 

North America did not get a few weeks lag.  once this virus proliferated in china, given travel in 2020, North America had cases of covid19 at the same time anywhere else outside of china.  what we didn't have is panic...until now

[Gregmal]

It is very hard to understand this specific virus as it has not been seen before. But because it started in China in late December and spread from there to Asia and Europe we are very somewhat fortunate here in North America because we can see how this virus progresses with a couple of weeks lag. The extra couple of weeks are critical to slow it down. Now that it has hit Kirkland, Washington we have more information. Here is a link to the website of one of the local Seattle TV stations (Komo). The article is from today and if you read through it you will be able to learn about and better understand the complexity of the issues that communities will be facing (especially if it goes undetected). Washington State is about 10 days into its response; things are moving very quickly.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/washington-reports-16-deaths-from-covid-19-as-officials-scramble-to-contain

 

Exactly. We are sorely lacking reliable info and we are about to get tons of it. Wall Street tends to shit first and ask questions later. At -12% for the broader index, it’ll be interesting to see what’s priced in.

[merkhet]

Allow me to break my vow of silence with another "useless" chart. I know these charts are "useless" and "noise", so please excuse me.

 

A riddle for you supposedly intelligent individuals on here who claim to understand compounding: each dot on this chart represents a day, the last one 3/7 which is not over yet:

 

What is the doubling rate of cases ex China on this "useless" chart?

 

According to this hospital slide, they are estimating 7-10 days doubling time. Does the doubling time look a lot smaller than 7 days to you on this chart? What do you think will happen when the reality is worse than the worst case hospitals are prepping for? And remember, a lot of cases are missed (not on this chart) because places like the U.S. don't have enough test kits...

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.]

 

In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking.

 

Allow me to bring a slightly different view here.

 

Dalal, we’ve actually corresponded on this before, but it seems like most of your posts here include some form of ridicule or attempt to dig on the intelligence of other people on this forum. I’ll ask you the same thing as I did last time.

 

Do you think this helps your goal of informing/persuading others? Or do you believe it hurts it? Are you being effective in your goal?

 

The last time we spoke about this, you seemed to indicate that you thought you may have over-imitated Munger in your posts here, so I would ask you to invert. How would you make it so that people are significantly less likely to listen to you?

 

And this isn’t necessarily limited to Dalal.Holdings, btw. He just happens to be the latest person to do it on this thread.

 

merkhet,

 

And by which line of communication - here on CoBF - have you been having this line of communication with Dalal.Holdings?

 

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/nintendo-ntdoy/msg303468/#msg303468

[John Hjorth]

It is very hard to understand this specific virus as it has not been seen before. But because it started in China in late December and spread from there to Asia and Europe we are very somewhat fortunate here in North America because we can see how this virus progresses with a couple of weeks lag. The extra couple of weeks are critical to slow it down. Now that it has hit Kirkland, Washington we have more information. Here is a link to the website of one of the local Seattle TV stations (Komo). The article is from today and if you read through it you will be able to learn about and better understand the complexity of the issues that communities will be facing (especially if it goes undetected). Washington State is about 10 days into its response; things are moving very quickly.

 

- https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/washington-reports-16-deaths-from-covid-19-as-officials-scramble-to-contain

 

Exactly. We are sorely lacking reliable info and we are about to get tons of it. Wall Street tends to shit first and ask questions later. At -12% for the broader index, it’ll be interesting to see what’s priced in.

 

Please read Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [16-24 February 2020].

 

If you don't relate to what's in that report [p. 11], you are at best on your own.

[Guest cherzeca]

this is getting personal, if not instructive.  shall we post a poll to see which one of you two is an *sshole?

[Viking]

What can we learn from other parts of the world where a serious outbreak hit (like what we are seeing in Washington State)? Wuhan, China is one example. Another, example is northern Italy. Please note, their outbreak is 2 weeks old.

 

Here is a question. If the US had to resort to the measures below would it affect the current valuation of the stock market? Perhaps the virus that is in the US is different. Or perhaps the US will manage the outbreak better than other regions of the world and not have to resort to such drastic measures. Or perhaps not.

 

So far i think we can all agree what is going on in Washington State is not what one would call best practice (testing is usually a core part of what would be considered a good response). Please note, i am not trying to be critical of the health care providers etc. They are in a gun fight and they have been handed a plastic knife by leadership.

 

Here is an update from Italy:

 

Italy is considering drastic new steps to lock down northern area at center of outbreak

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/07/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-B6OGGHNBUNDVPGZ3TACWB7AXW4

 

ROME — The draft of a new government decree, reviewed by several Italian media outlets, suggests Italy is on the verge of dramatically expanding its no-entry zone to include a broad northern area that includes all of the Lombardy region.

 

The changes, which could be adopted as early as Saturday night, according to the newspapers, would mark the most serious step taken anywhere outside of China to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

 

The measures would at least temporarily transform the nation, locking off much of the northern part of the country, with people allowed to exit or enter Lombardy and 11 northern provinces only for emergency reasons, according to the decree. Such changes would cut off the daily high-speed rail connections between Milan and Rome; bring an absolute halt to tourism in Venice; and essentially bring Italy’s economic heartland to a standstill.

 

In the two weeks since the coronavirus crisis erupted in Italy, 11 small towns have been so far put under lockdown — restrictions that have stopped the movement of 50,000 people. If the government approves the new decree, those restrictions would apply to roughly 15 million people.

 

Italy’s government has been racing to combat the crisis as it has accelerated in recent days. The number of active cases in the country has soared beyond 5,000, with 1,000 new cases confirmed on Saturday alone. Of those cases, more than 2,700 are in the Lombardy region, which includes Milan. According to the Corriere della Sera newspaper, the restrictions would remain in place until at least April 3. Schools would remain closed during that time, and public events would be halted.

[Guest cherzeca]

@viking

 

why on earth would you feel compelled to post instruction from Italy on any matter other than fashion or pasta?

[John Hjorth]

this is getting personal, if not instructive.  shall we post a poll to see which one of you two is an *sshole?

 

If this is adresseed towards me, please say so, instead of wrapping it in calling me a "*sshole*.

[StubbleJumper]

 

 

Here is an update from Italy:

 

Italy is considering drastic new steps to lock down northern area at center of outbreak

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/07/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-B6OGGHNBUNDVPGZ3TACWB7AXW4

 

 

 

 

This will be fascinating to watch.  It's relatively easy for a despotic country like China to impose travel limitations and quarantines.  Italy seems to be on the cusp of announcing a large scale quarantine.  But what about the culture?  Is it even possible to control 10 or 15 million Italians?  Heavens, go to an airport, subway or any other place where order is required and watch the behaviour of southern Europeans.  While Canadians and Americans will politely queue up in an airport or virtually anywhere else, southern Europe is a different world!  They seem to hold the view that rules are made to be broken!

 

Even in Canada or the US, I am unconvinced that a large scale quarantine could even be enforced.  At least in Canada there's the advantage of distance and limited transportation routes between some communities.  But, I could quite well imagine people telling the government F-U, and just driving around any road blocks (it's hard to seal off every road).

 

I guess time will tell how well this will work in a modern liberal democracy....

 

 

SJ

[SnarkyPuppy]

@viking

 

why on earth would you feel compelled to post instruction from Italy on any matter other than fashion or pasta?

 

Why are you so adamantly against conservative and constructive measures in the face of something that is growing at a fast rate w/ no obvious mechanism in place to cut off the growth?

 

Why is your base case that what is seemingly happening across the world is not going to occur here? 

 

Can you entertain a scenario where you would change your mind - and if so what specifically would cause you to change your mind?  In this scenario, is it possible risk prevention and mitigation would be orders of magnitude more difficult than in previous weeks?

[SnarkyPuppy]

To quote Nassim Taleb today-

 

"If the word "panic" means "exaggerated" reaction, could be so at the individual level but NOT at the collective one.  We MUST reduce connectivity for 20 d to avert a serious problem.  We have survived for zillion years thanks to "irrational" "panics".

 

When you put your seat belt you aren't "forecasting" a crash. When you lock your house you aren't forecasting theft..."

[Viking]

 

 

Here is an update from Italy:

 

Italy is considering drastic new steps to lock down northern area at center of outbreak

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/07/coronavirus-live-updates/#link-B6OGGHNBUNDVPGZ3TACWB7AXW4

 

 

 

 

This will be fascinating to watch.  It's relatively easy for a despotic country like China to impose travel limitations and quarantines.  Italy seems to be on the cusp of announcing a large scale quarantine.  But what about the culture?  Is it even possible to control 10 or 15 million Italians?  Heavens, go to an airport, subway or any other place where order is required and watch the behaviour of southern Europeans.  While Canadians and Americans will politely queue up in an airport or virtually anywhere else, southern Europe is a different world!  They seem to hold the view that rules are made to be broken!

 

Even in Canada or the US, I am unconvinced that a large scale quarantine could even be enforced.  At least in Canada there's the advantage of distance and limited transportation routes between some communities.  But, I could quite well imagine people telling the government F-U, and just driving around any road blocks (it's hard to seal off every road).

 

I guess time will tell how well this will work in a modern liberal democracy....

 

 

SJ

 

My wife is Italian heritage; parents are from northern Italy. She Has been in touch with family there and has been told it is an ‘overreaction’ on the part of the government (this was a couple of days ago). :-)

[orthopa]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

[SnarkyPuppy]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

 

With all due respect... no shit?  It is very obviously everywhere.  I'm not sure why you are trying to quote reported #'s when the reported numbers are clearly irrelevant given undertesting.

 

Italy had 20 cases 2 weeks ago.  Look at Italy today.