Coronavirus

[spartansaver]

Two new pieces of information that are more concerning - definitely cash flows of any company related to China are going to be affected in the next 3 -6 months. If they don't control it yes, and if they do control it then as a lingering risk which rears its head up every few months when cases happen.

 

A new paper out of China:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf+html

this puts R0 at 4.08 (each infected person spreading to 4 more) and fatality rate at 6.5%. Also, the model fits best with a date of start of outbreak prior to Dec 15th 2019. Either that's true and very concerning, or the model will end up being revised.

 

Chinese cases update from yesterday - an interesting thing to note is the significant number of cases outside Wuhan and Hubei Province. This makes me expect transmission within China will be very very difficult to contain. Outside China, all it takes is a few people traveling while infected and a healthcare system that doesn't pick up early enough on the exposure history/ link to China (or someone doesn't reveal that for fear of discrimination or rejection)

 

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/who-experts-again-weigh-ncov-emergency-status-more-nations-affected

Chinese cases pass 6,000

"Early today China's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 1,459 new cases spanning 31 of its 33 provinces and administrating regions, boosting the overall total to 5,974. It also reported 26 more deaths, lifting the fatality count to 132. A situation update from the WHO said today that 1,239 illnesses are severe.

 

A Chinese medical site that flagged new reports from China's provinces and cities put the total this afternoon at 6,095 cases, 133 of them fatal. Hubei province, home to Wuhan, where the outbreak was first reported, accounts for roughly half of the cases, with four provinces now reporting more than 200 cases: Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan, and Henan.

 

Apart from affected parts of Hubei province, cities reporting the highest numbers of cases are Chongqing, Beijing, and Shanghai."

 

The inputs for that research paper seem to be rather useless. Taking the public figures (which are likely very inaccurate), and then putting those into a formula is "garbage in, garbage out." The more I've read about it, the more I think that most the info we have at this point is useless. The only thing I can say with reasonable confidence, is that it is more contagious than SARS (and I could be wrong about that). My reasoning - it has likely infected in a short amount of time more than SARS ever did (SARS info was likely also very understated).

 

[Pondside47]

I don’t understand why people waste time reading things that are neither peer nor editorially reviewed medical papers...

[DocSnowball]

You're right about the input and output being far from accurate due to use of publicly reported figures. Also, until we know how many are symptomatic vs asymptomatic, there is no clear denominator to make accurate predictions. That will become clearer with time and following a cohort closely in another city with robust diagnostic testing and follow up capability.

 

This one is peer-reviewed and puts the R0 at approximately 2.2 (limiting the R0 estimate to prior to January 4th 2020). It still calls for the aggressive control measures that are being put in place over the last week.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_home

 

[LC]

WHO declares global emergency:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51318246

 

The death toll now stands at 170 people in China.

 

The WHO said there had been 98 cases in 18 countries outside of the country, but no deaths.

 

Most cases have emerged in people who have travelled from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.

 

However, there have been eight cases of human-to-human infection - in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States.

 

Remember this is a disease which emerged only last month and yet there are already 7,736 confirmed cases in China and 12,167 suspected ones.

 

[muscleman]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

[Pondside47]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

 

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

 

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia. 

[hyten1]

please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

[mcliu]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

 

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

 

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.

Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

[hillfronter83]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

 

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

 

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.

Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

 

If you look at numbers out of Wuhan and abroad, the death rate is indeed not that high. Similar to normal flu.

[ERICOPOLY]

Hypothetically, if you have 100 infected and the number of infected grows by 30% per day, you'll have 4,000 cases in 14 days. 

 

And none of the new cases will tally as deaths (yet) if the incubation period is 14 days.

 

The reports that I've seen haven't broken down the number of asymptomatic cases included in their reporting.

[Pondside47]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

 

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

 

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.

Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

 

Absolutely, but the death number would have to be 10x higher for the virus to be more deadly than what the official numbers tell us today, if the 100k infection number is correct as of today.

[Pondside47]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

 

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

 

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.

Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

 

If you look at numbers out of Wuhan and abroad, the death rate is indeed not that high. Similar to normal flu.

 

You also have to consider Wuhan is one of the least developed major city in China. The medical response in cities like Shenzhen will be much better. Shenzhen allegedly had 0 death during SARS and it’s located in the middle of guangdong which was one of the most affected provinces

[BG2008]

please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

 

Hyten,

 

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 

Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. 

 

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit. 

[hillfronter83]

please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

 

Hyten,

 

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 

Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. 

 

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

 

I don't disagree that both patient and death numbers are probably much higher in Wuhan/Hubei area. China has under invested in healthcare infrastructure over the years. So resources are already stretched under normal condition. Now imagine there are suddenly 10 times more patients waiting in line to be checked out. That said, there is no incentive for areas outside Wuhan/Hubei to under report numbers.

 

Yes, people all over China are staying at home and not going to public space. And local governments everywhere are announcing extreme measures, such as mandatory face mask wearing in public places and canceling events, to counter the outbreak. But outside Wuhan/Hubei, I haven't seen concrete evidences contradicting opinions of medical experts in the west that the virus break is similar to flu in terms of contagiousness and death threat.

[no_free_lunch]

Here is another data point from Japan.  This is just one data point and a relatively small sample but it would indicate the infection is WAY bigger than you are told.

 

Three Japanese who returned from Wuhan on a government-chartered flight have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the health ministry said Thursday as more Japanese evacuees from the Chinese city arrived in Tokyo.

 

The three — one in stable condition and two without symptoms — were among 206 people brought back Wednesday from Wuhan amid a deadly outbreak started by the pneumonia-causing virus.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/30/national/three-japanese-wuhan-coronavirus/#.XjRujCNMFhE

 

So they pulled back 206 people and 3 of them (or 1.5%) have CoronaVirus.  Think about the implications.  If there are 50 million people in the infection zone and they had similar infection rates (and why wouldn't they) that would be 750k infections. 

 

Conversely, if there are really only 5k infections on a population of 50m, then that is 1 in 10k.  You would NOT expect to see 3 / 206 (1/67) infected on the Japanese plane.

 

I am not saying that is the actual rate, again small sample size, but I do think it is very plausible that it is significantly higher than we are told.

[BG2008]

please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

 

Hyten,

 

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 

Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. 

 

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

 

I don't disagree that both patient and death numbers are probably much higher in Wuhan/Hubei area. China has under invested in healthcare infrastructure over the years. So resources are already stretched under normal condition. Now imagine there are suddenly 10 times more patients waiting in line to be checked out. That said, there is no incentive for areas outside Wuhan/Hubei to under report numbers.

 

Yes, people all over China are staying at home and not going to public space. And local governments everywhere are announcing extreme measures, such as mandatory face mask wearing in public places and canceling events, to counter the outbreak. But outside Wuhan/Hubei, I haven't seen concrete evidences contradicting opinions of medical experts in the west that the virus break is similar to flu in terms of contagiousness and death threat.

 

Maybe wait 2 weeks?  The FACTs can wait till we get more clarity.  No need to be a hero on both sides.  I am avoiding subways in NYC for now.

[rb]

Maybe wait 2 weeks?  The FACTs can wait till we get more clarity.  No need to be a hero on both sides.  I am avoiding subways in NYC for now.

When I'm there in the summer I pretty much avoid them all the time, virus or no virus  8)

[hyten1]

BG2008,

 

i agree, but why create fear and throw out numbers when the numbers are pure speculation. sure you can tell anecdotal situations.

 

lets not put words in my mouth, or insinuate whatever you want to insinuate on what i said.

 

death rate can be a lot higher so can infection rate, its the ratio that really determine the severity of this virus. since we have no idea what these numbers are creating fear and panic doesn't do anyone any good. I am not saying walking around like nothing happens or only do something until the "facts" are in.

 

 

You are not the only who reads, I am aware of all these things you stated. Inversion is not a concept that so difficult that escape my thought process.

 

 

 

please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

 

Hyten,

 

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 

Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. 

 

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

[BG2008]

BG2008,

 

i agree, but why create fear and throw out numbers when the numbers are pure speculation. sure you can tell anecdotal situations.

 

lets not put words in my mouth, or insinuate whatever you want to insinuate on what i said.

 

death rate can be a lot higher so can infection rate, its the ratio that really determine the severity of this virus. since we have no idea what these numbers are creating fear and panic doesn't do anyone any good. I am not saying walking around like nothing happens or only do something until the "facts" are in.

 

 

 

 

 

please provide facts, not speculation and fear mongering.  If there are 1 million infections (hypothetical to illustrate a point) without additional deaths that is actually a good thing, that means this virus is not as deadly as we thought it could be

 

Hyten,

 

I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012.  I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground.  Shanghai is a pretty much a  ghost town now.  No one goes downstairs from their apartment.  You can call that heresay.  But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town.    The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left.  That's a fact.  I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan.  It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD.  Most of the population can't afford that.  There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. 

 

Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." 

Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. 

 

Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? 

 

Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs.  Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures.  Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. 

 

Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine?  If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this?  To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. 

 

Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

 

Hyten,

 

Perhaps my reaction to you is due to knowing this HF analyst at a large fund.  He tends to moderate the conversation and he would literally pound the table and ask for facts.  So, I might've had an image of him when I typed that.  I promise you I am a pretty civil person. 

 

The right way to react is probably somewhere in between.    Actually, thanks for Muscleman's information, I actually started buying some puts in CAT, Prologis (sector hedge), Royal Carribean (Does anyone want to cruise now?  There is a ship with 6,000 people stranded on it), etc.  My wife was very cagey about not letting me travel because of chatter on WeChat about Corona Virus.  I hedged out my risk in DD with some $47.50 puts (more for macor than earnings reason).  I did all of this on Monday.  Today, I bought some SPY put spreads that pay out 8.3x if the SPY goes down 15% from here.  Probably over reaction on my part.  But I like to hedge my portfolio and have dry powder ready.   

 

In a way, Muscleman's anecdotes actually created a ton of information edge.  I wish my daughter didn't need a pediatrician visit yesterday.  I probably would've sat down to buy more puts.  In a unforeseen twist of fate, being Chinese and being able to read Chinese and watch Chinese video became an edge.  But I would've never caught onto this if this thread did not exist. 

 

Thank you everyone for the conversation.  I actually think that Boeing is probably a good short here.  Still has issues with the MAX and now US airlines won't fly to China.  Seems richly valued at 18x FCF or whatever. 

[BG2008]

BTW, the Chinese government forbids discussion of Corona Virus on WeChat.  I have noticed a lot of information flow has died down. 

[rb]

Interesting article on Marketwatch:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-is-less-deadly-than-sars-but-that-may-explain-why-its-so-contagious-2020-01-30?mod=home-page

 

“There are likely to be many times more cases in Wuhan than officially confirmed,” Neil Ferguson, a disease modeler at Imperial College London, told The Wall Street Journal. The paper also said some families have voiced their concern and frustration that their relatives’ cause of death was marked as “severe pneumonia” or “viral pneumonia” on their death certificates.

 

“Clearly, the hospitals are overwhelmed,” Ferguson said.

 

This is basically congruent with what BG has been saying. Another bit:

 

Yaxue Cao, founder and editor of the political pressure group ChinaChange.org, said a Wuhan doctor said in a WeChat group in late December that there were “7 cases of SARS connected to the seafood market.” He was then scolded by the party disciplinary office, and forced to retract that, Cao said.

 

“From the same report, we learned that Wuhan health authorities were having overnight meetings about the new ‘SARS’ at end of December,” Cao posted on Twitter Jan. 27. “Earlier today the Wuhan mayor said he was not ‘authorized’ to publicize the epidemic until Jan. 20.”

 

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said 5 million people had left the city before travel restrictions were imposed ahead of the Chinese New Year. Ma Xiaowei, the director of China’s National Health Commission, said that the virus had an incubation period of 10 to 14 days.

 

If this stuff is true then the people handling this on the Chinese side must be some of the biggest idiots that God ever let through the door!

[Pondside47]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

They decided to put the fatality rate on a log scale... this looks like it's half as fatal as Ebola... journalists are in the same league as investment bankers now

[hyten1]

i hear what you are saying, I am also chinese. I just think being calm, take in all the facts, (anecdotal is fact as long as you don't extrapolate it to the extreme) is the right way to do it.

 

you said it gives you an edge, perhaps, but it can also create undue fear and make you do things that you might not have done out of fear. obviously i have no idea how this will turn of, every trade you have done could all be winners due to your chinese edge, then again it could not be, it might of cause you to overreact. Yes I understand better safe then sorry etc. etc.

 

 

 

 

[Pondside47]

BTW, the Chinese government forbids discussion of Corona Virus on WeChat.  I have noticed a lot of information flow has died down.

 

I don't think the government forbids discussion since I'm still discussing it with my relatives in Wuhan. But I understand a lot of the chat groups throwing rumors around have been banned temporarily. How is that different than some of the comments that have been blocked by Boston Globe? It makes me really want to see those comments!

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/01/31/metro/fears-coronavirus-fuel-anti-chinese-racism/?_sp=390b3cb1-9518-485e-b77b-58421f43c53a.1580497975164&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending&_sp=390b3cb1-9518-485e-b77b-58421f43c53a.1580497975164&s_campaign=bdc:globewell:trending

[muscleman]

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

 

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today?

 

On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia.

Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections?

 

I think that's true. If you look at SARS death rate, it is only 11% in China vs 20% in Hong Kong. Either the Chinese medical system is way better than Hong Kong or you know......

 

Let me give you some details as I have classmates actually working in the CDC in Wuhan. Earlier this month, they only give out 200 PCR test kits per day and only acknowledge infections tested positive by the kit. There were tons of people who could not get tested. It is recently increased to 2000 kits per day, which is why you see the steady increase in infection numbers recently.

When there are not enough kits to be used on people still alive, how would you expect them to test on people who died? No way to waste a kit for that. Those people who died will never show up in the number.

 

The test kit's sensitivity is also adjusted to a low level. I heard a case today that a patient was considered cured as his test kit shows negativity after two tests in 3 days, and was discharged to his home, and then infected his family. His family has been staying at home for the whole time.