Coronavirus

[orthopa]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see.  Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media.  8)

[thowed]

I would invite everyone to go back and read my first post in this thread. I dont have time look now, then read the yahoo article gregmal posted.

 

That being said realize in this thread I have been called "ignorant", a "cabbage brain", "blind", and have had very little offer.

 

8)

 

I don't disagree with you that people are overreacting about the overall health position.

 

My problem is that governments & businesses are reacting by shutting everything down and spreading fear, meaning businesses are not operating normally.

 

Until people feel confident in going out and mingling properly, I think there will be a problem.  In Europe movement is going down, and it feels like this will happen much more in the US.

 

I suppose perhaps one question is if Asia will now outperform as they're ahead of the curve, and share prices have suffered comparatively with the US for so long.  But I still suspect that things are too interconnected.

 

 

 

[compoundinglife]

I enjoyed this interesting blog post from early February comparing two different methods of estimating CFR. Key take away for me is that "naive CFR" (cases / deaths) under estimates up front and rises to converge with actual CFR eventually. Where as the "resolved CFR" (deaths / (deaths + recoveries)) tracks the observed CFR with more accuracy than the naive CFR. Author's prediction/estimate is 1.6% CFR when estimating under reported cases.

 

https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/

 

Author is not an expert, take it with a grain of salt. But I learned a few things from reading this.

[alwaysdrawing]

I don't disagree with you that people are overreacting about the overall health position.

 

Italy is triaging patients such that older and sick people cannot access ventilators because their hospitals are overwhelmed. 

 

Do you have to see it in NYC and Seattle to believe it?  The bad news is that we will likely see those hospitals become overwhelmed within weeks...

 

 

 

 

[compoundinglife]

Anecdotal observation about the ranges of concern among the population.

 

Being in the Seattle area my family has been acutely aware of the situation as it has been unfolding. WA nursing homes are finally turning away visitors and Seattle Public Schools shut down after saying for weeks they would not. Friend who is a teacher reported that their principal tested positive and the school turned into a hazmat zone, he thought they were going to leave through a tube (E.T. reference).

 

On the other side of the coin, east coast family (at risk age group) who had been planning to visit someone in an LTC center in Oregon finally acknowledged our message about requesting they do not come up to visit us. But is still planning to fly cross country to the nursing home in Oregon because as of today the home is still allowing visitors.

 

 

[Read the Footnotes]

I would invite everyone to go back and read my first post in this thread. I dont have time look now, then read the yahoo article gregmal posted.

 

That being said realize in this thread I have been called "ignorant", a "cabbage brain", "blind", and have had very little offer.

 

8)

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. I think it is very easily explained that there are multiple sides to this and each side is right. I'll explain in a moment.

 

First a question.

 

Orthopa, what percentage of the beds in your hospital are available on an average day?

What about ventilators?

 

Also, how many total patients have you personally seen that you believe have COVID-19? Were any diagnosed as COVID-19?

 

 

[rb]

Because Donald Trump saying the market will be "just fine"

 

Now I am concerned.  :-\

Reminds me of that Paulson press conference back in 2008 where he was reassuring people about the markets while Dow was falling off a cliff.

[KCLarkin]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see.  Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media.  8)

 

For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US?

[alwaysdrawing]

LOL at the guy using a Damodoran DCF model for the S&P.  Good luck buddy. 

 

Don't you guys see?  Companies are going to revenue comp -20, -50, -80%--how many businesses can survive that?  Airlines, theme parks, cruise ships, restaurants by the 1000s are dead companies walking.

 

Hundreds of thousands of people, and 1000s of businesses are going to close.  Unemployment is going to skyrocket.

 

The gov't doesn't have enough money to bailout the people, to say nothing of the current crazy plans to bailout hotels and cruise lines.  Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO.  The Democrats control the house--they aren't bailing out big business.

 

BUY FOOD FOR A LONG TERM QUARANTINE.  PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. Stay safe folks.  We have a long way to go from here, so strap in.

I welcome the criticism. What I've learned over time is my inability to have any edge in market timing, and have decided to drip in to average over time. It may be flawed but it beats what I would achieve otherwise. If you have better ideas would love to hear - my main goal is to find out where I'm wrong so feel free to let loose.

 

You went wrong when you estimated the cash flows of tomorrow will look like yesterday, or projections based on last year.  There has been a gigantic hit to the economy....a gigantic hit to humanity.

 

DCFs are for normal times, not during the beginning of a global pandemic which will cause companies to fail, employees to be laid off, and massive disruptions to the economy.

[DocSnowball]

LOL at the guy using a Damodoran DCF model for the S&P.  Good luck buddy. 

 

Don't you guys see?  Companies are going to revenue comp -20, -50, -80%--how many businesses can survive that?  Airlines, theme parks, cruise ships, restaurants by the 1000s are dead companies walking.

 

Hundreds of thousands of people, and 1000s of businesses are going to close.  Unemployment is going to skyrocket.

 

The gov't doesn't have enough money to bailout the people, to say nothing of the current crazy plans to bailout hotels and cruise lines.  Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO.  The Democrats control the house--they aren't bailing out big business.

 

BUY FOOD FOR A LONG TERM QUARANTINE.  PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. Stay safe folks.  We have a long way to go from here, so strap in.

I welcome the criticism. What I've learned over time is my inability to have any edge in market timing, and have decided to drip in to average over time. It may be flawed but it beats what I would achieve otherwise. If you have better ideas would love to hear - my main goal is to find out where I'm wrong so feel free to let loose.

 

You went wrong when you estimated the cash flows of tomorrow will look like yesterday, or projections based on last year.  There has been a gigantic hit to the economy....a gigantic hit to humanity.

 

DCFs are for normal times, not during the beginning of a global pandemic which will cause companies to fail, employees to be laid off, and massive disruptions to the economy.

Companies will fail and disruptions will happen, agree.

 

What key metrics can we track to disprove the thesis that things will be back up in 4-6 months, even with 50% business from this year permanently lost? Case count and mortality graphs over time in China or across all countries with >1000 cases? Any financial metrics we can track?

[orthopa]

I would invite everyone to go back and read my first post in this thread. I dont have time look now, then read the yahoo article gregmal posted.

 

That being said realize in this thread I have been called "ignorant", a "cabbage brain", "blind", and have had very little offer.

 

8)

I have said it before, and I'll say it again. I think it is very easily explained that there are multiple sides to this and each side is right. I'll explain in a moment.

 

First a question.

 

Orthopa, what percentage of the beds in your hospital are available on an average day?

What about ventilators?

 

Also, how many total patients have you personally seen that you believe have COVID-19? Were any diagnosed as COVID-19?

 

I just called the hospital and talked to the charge nurse on each floor. Hospital is ~ 85% full but that is very fluid and changes by the hour as people are admitted and discharged. Ventilator only used in ICU. 80% full. Don't know any of the diagnoses though. Now mind you this is a suburban hospital in town with 9 other hospitals within 20 miles. That could vary in each one.

 

In that data I suggested I saw 165 of those patients. None were tested for corona. All in the group looked at were diagnosed with viral illness.

[alwaysdrawing]

Companies will fail and disruptions will happen, agree.

 

What key metrics can we track to disprove the thesis that things will be back up in 4-6 months, even with 50% business from this year permanently lost? Case count and mortality graphs over time in China or across all countries with >1000 cases? Any financial metrics we can track?

 

This is a metric to track:  How many new coronavirus burial pits can be seen from space

 

WASHINGTON POST

Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space

Iranian authorities began digging a pair of trenches for victims just days after the government disclosed the initial outbreak. Together, their lengths are that of a football field.

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/

 

ARE YOU GUYS AWAKE????? 

[Gregmal]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see.  Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media.  8)

 

For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US?

 

So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy?

 

Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end".

 

I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable?

 

[orthopa]

I would invite everyone to go back and read my first post in this thread. I dont have time look now, then read the yahoo article gregmal posted.

 

That being said realize in this thread I have been called "ignorant", a "cabbage brain", "blind", and have had very little offer.

 

8)

 

I don't disagree with you that people are overreacting about the overall health position.

 

My problem is that governments & businesses are reacting by shutting everything down and spreading fear, meaning businesses are not operating normally.

 

Until people feel confident in going out and mingling properly, I think there will be a problem.  In Europe movement is going down, and it feels like this will happen much more in the US.

 

I suppose perhaps one question is if Asia will now outperform as they're ahead of the curve, and share prices have suffered comparatively with the US for so long.  But I still suspect that things are too interconnected.

 

No question this is becoming a big problem economically.

[Kaegi2011]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see.  Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media.  8)

 

For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US?

 

So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy?

 

Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end".

 

I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable?

 

In speaking with friends in NYC/SF/Sea it seems like cities are mostly shut down.  HOwever, if you look at pretty much any other city, it's as if nothing is happening. I suspect I'll be told to work from home a week from now, but everyone's in the office, and traffic was just as bad today as any other day.  Net of it, I don't think most people are as educated nor have most of middle america gotten the message...

[Gregmal]

I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call  local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory.

 

I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative.  H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu.

 

I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area.

 

What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world?

 

My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html

 

Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see.  Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media.  8)

 

For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US?

 

So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy?

 

Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end".

 

I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable?

 

In speaking with friends in NYC/SF/Sea it seems like cities are mostly shut down.  HOwever, if you look at pretty much any other city, it's as if nothing is happening. I suspect I'll be told to work from home a week from now, but everyone's in the office, and traffic was just as bad today as any other day.  Net of it, I don't think most people are as educated nor have most of middle america gotten the message...

 

Eh its hard to tell. I live in suburbia, not too far from rural, manly man, big beard, F250, blue jeans and timberland boots towns. Theres sanitizers at every store and even those guys are making a concerted effort to be hygienic. Hopefully all folks are. Given where things, market wise have escalated, I just cant see how the current reality correlates unless things severely accelerate, which of course is always a possibility.

 

To me, the current numbers, context, and things mentioned by folks like orthopa kind of seem to indicate this is further along than everyone realizes, and a lot less severe. Even the big case in NJ about the "perfectly healthy 32 year of physical assistant" having "severe" problems? Oh, yea, its just came out he was a chronic vaper... I've taken off all my hedges.

[Castanza]

My wife's hospital just announced first confirmed covid-19 case. As a result my work told me I'm no longer red team blue team and instead I have to stay home indefinitely (makes sense).

[KCLarkin]

So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy?

 

...

 

But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable?

 

This is really two different conversations. Orthopa is saying this virus has been circulating for months and has already infected millions of people. If this is the case, then Corona is really just like the flu. It might be a bad "flu" because there is no community immunity, but it is unlikely to tax our healthcare system. The argument I am having with Orhtopa is purely on R0 and CFR. This is unknowable in US because there is essentially no testing.

 

--

 

In terms of response, I think the response is much worse than Italy. It is hard to imagine how you could approach a pandemic worse. The "for profit" medical system makes it hard to contain the virus. It can cost several thousand dollars to get screened for the virus! The lack of adequate sick leave and other social security, means that sick poor people need to go to work and use public transit. The pandemic SWAT team was disbanded. The CDC messed up the test kits and didn't respond aggressively. The administration doesn't trust experts. The president is treating this like a PR crisis.

 

The local governments and businesses have stepped in to help slow the spread, but the public health and leadership missed the opportunity to contain this.

 

--

In terms of financial impact and investing impact, I am pretty optimistic. Only 10% of the valuation of a company is based on the next three years of earnings so I don't think this outbreak is material to most companies. So the immediate impact is pretty limited. The problem is that we are starting from very high valuations. The crisis in 2008 was bigger, but started with reasonable valuations. Given recent trends in financial markets, credit is likely to tighten and this could spread from a modest recession to a financial panic.

 

 

[stahleyp]

The crisis in 2008 was bigger, but started with reasonable valuations. Given recent trends in financial markets, credit is likely to tighten and this could spread from a modest recession to a financial panic.

 

This is the way I look at it. Good to have a fair amount of cash.

[Gregmal]

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way.

 

Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps.

 

Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

[Viking]

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way.

 

Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps.

 

Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

 

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic.

 

45% of the people in the US think he is some kind of god...  When he spreads his misinformation people listen to him and this hurts local efforts. FYI, do you think Trump calling the Governor of Washington State a snake was helpful? Did that help Republicans in Washington State get behind the Governors requests? No.

 

PS: yes, i am seeing lots of good things... but i am confident Trump will continue to impede what really needs to be done.

[LC]

Trump literally has nothing to do with this.

 

Cmon. The guy defunded CDC and a few years later CDC is behind the curve on testing. To say he has nothing to do with it, is going too far in one direction.

[Gregmal]

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way.

 

Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps.

 

Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

 

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic.

 

45% of the people in the US think he is a god...

 

At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing.

 

Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating).

[compoundinglife]

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way.

 

Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps.

 

Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

 

Action or inaction at the local level is impacted the Federal government as we have seen already. It has taken things to get to pressure cooker levels for local governments to ignore the feds.

 

Conflicting messages between federal and local officials has caused chaos and IMO slowed down reaction. Seattle's pro-active reaction to this was instigated by independent thinkers who had enough will and concern to ignore the CDC. Not every local government has the luxury of teams of scientist in their back yards studying this situation in depth. Additionally I think WA/Seattle would have done much more much sooner if they had more co-operation from the CDC on data collection.

 

I think your point is accurate, the battle will won or loss on the micro not macro level. But the battle in the hard hit areas would be farther along IMO if the administration had acted differently.

[Viking]

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way.

 

Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps.

 

Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

 

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic.

 

45% of the people in the US think he is a god...

 

At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing.

 

Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating).

 

Here is one of 100 examples from just the past week: When he spreads his misinformation people listen to him and this hurts local efforts. FYI, do you think Trump calling the Governor of Washington State a snake was helpful? Did that help Republicans in Washington State get behind the Governors requests? No. That matters.