Coronavirus

[meiroy]

 

I'm getting the feeling that some of the over-analyzing of the Corona numbers and potential impact, at least on Twitter, is a means to justify the complete incompetence of the current administration.  Cialdini was right.

 

 

[EliG]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

 

This has been here for much longer than people think.

 

She just came back from a speaking engagement in London. She started to feel the symptoms after flying back. Odds are she got the virus while in the UK.

[jschembs]

 

I'm getting the feeling that some of the over-analyzing of the Corona numbers and potential impact, at least on Twitter, is a means to justify the complete incompetence of the current administration.  Cialdini was right.

 

Sorry what's the Cialdini connection here?

[stahleyp]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

[StubbleJumper]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

[DooDiligence]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

[stahleyp]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

[meiroy]

 

I'm getting the feeling that some of the over-analyzing of the Corona numbers and potential impact, at least on Twitter, is a means to justify the complete incompetence of the current administration.  Cialdini was right.

 

Sorry what's the Cialdini connection here?

 

Robert Cialdini.  Have you read some of his books?

[jschembs]

 

I'm getting the feeling that some of the over-analyzing of the Corona numbers and potential impact, at least on Twitter, is a means to justify the complete incompetence of the current administration.  Cialdini was right.

 

Sorry what's the Cialdini connection here?

 

Robert Cialdini.  Have you read some of his books?

 

Yes I've read Influence, just didn't get your reference (admittedly it's been years since I read it).

 

[sleepydragon]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

 

This has been here for much longer than people think.

 

 

Why do you say that?

 

This is related:

 

https://apnews.com/f20e530ae6dfe4926f81a11905425e2b

 

Could you imagine what would happen if Trump got it? Though...I'm sure we would never find out unless he got super sick.

 

Shit, this can’t be good for BAC. The ceo was sitting next to Trump when he meet bank ceos.

 

[samwise]

 

So to summarize testing is not a cure, its a diagnosis, a label. Treatment for those positive is fluids, rest, tylenol for fever, steriods/breathing treatments for breathing issues. If you go down hill, its happening regardless of your test results as there is nothing to decrease the viral load. 

 

Agreed. From my first hand experience. That’s exactly what every Canadian doctor has told me when I had a viral fever. Sure beats enemas, tree bark, mercury and bloodletting which respected doctors did during 1918. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-1918-influenza-pandemic-how-far-have-we-come/

 

Medicine has advanced by knowing their enemy and knowing their tools to treat the symptoms, but not found a cure yet. So testing may have limited clinical advantages.

 

I don’t know if it helps limit the spread now. Sounds like Whack-a-mole.

 

Testing does help gather data about your enemy. Data is the basis of all science, medical to cure a single case, or epidemiology to understand the spread of a disease in a population. We need both sciences to advance. We had 5(?) viruses emerge in the last 20 years (SARS, MERS, H1N1, Avian flu, Covid). I don’t think this stops with this battle.

 

Physicians may be the troops, but epidemiologists are our scouts and spies. If we don’t listen to our scouts, we could have issues. We either have bad scouts or bad judgment.

[stahleyp]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

 

This has been here for much longer than people think.

 

 

Why do you say that?

 

This is related:

 

https://apnews.com/f20e530ae6dfe4926f81a11905425e2b

 

Could you imagine what would happen if Trump got it? Though...I'm sure we would never find out unless he got super sick.

 

Shit, this can’t be good for BAC. The ceo was sitting next to Trump when he meet bank ceos.

 

 

Trump is a germophobe so I'm sure he washed his hands! :P

[meiroy]

 

 

What are the chances they will close the markets?

 

I couldn't get myself to buy anything so far, but on the next open, I'm taking a bite.

[james22]

The 10-Year Bull Market Just Died Of Coronavirus (John Hussman & Chris Martenson)

 

Given the extraordinary and historic meltdown underway in the markets, we've just recorded interviews with two of the most prominent financial experts we know to make sense of what's happening, and what's most likely to come next.

 

John Hussman is famous for his accurate predictions of both the 2001 and 2008 stock market crises, on which he made tremendous returns for investors. John makes very few public appearances -- this is his first media interview in years.

 

Steen Jakobsen is the Chief Investment officer of Saxo Bank. His macro market and political outlook are in high demand, making him a regular (though often contrarian) on major media such as CNBC and Bloomberg News.

 

Both have been warning of the structural excesses and instabilities in both the global economy and financial markets that set the stage for the current breakdown we're witnessing.

 

That said, they remain extremely concerned that the carnage that has started is far from over.

 

Here is video #1, of Chris in conversation with John Hussman, offering arguably the best and freshest insight on what's driving this violent market sell-off and what concerned investors should be paying most attention to at this point.

 

[stahleyp]

 

 

What are the chances they will close the markets?

 

I couldn't get myself to buy anything so far, but on the next open, I'm taking a bite.

 

Never say never but I don't think they will. I don't think they closed any special days from 2007-2009.

[DooDiligence]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

 

Here’s one. Let me know if you want more.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/donald-trump/trump-wrongly-blames-obama-limits-coronavirus-test/

[tng]

I went into a bubble tea shop yesterday in Massachusetts and all the workers had face masks and eye shields. They removed all the tables and chairs. People were asked to spread out while waiting for their order and leave afterwards because there will be no seating. Asian Americans and Asians (Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc) are just taking this a lot more seriously and they have probably heard about protocols used during SARS and in Wuhan. Most non-Asian Americans would die before they are caught wearing something so unfashionable. Yes, it isn't very effective for COVID-19, but most people don't know that. And it is effective for some other illnesses, especially if everybody wears them. Hopefully this changes going forward and maybe we can reduce flu deaths in the future.

[StubbleJumper]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

 

Here’s one. Let me know if you want more.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/donald-trump/trump-wrongly-blames-obama-limits-coronavirus-test/

 

 

"Blame the previous guy" works really well for your first year, and maybe it even works okay for your second year.  If it is a really long-term and structural issue, maybe you can even stretch it out for a third year.  But at a certain point, if the previous guy has been gone for long enough it gets a little silly.

 

 

SJ

[DooDiligence]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

 

Here’s one. Let me know if you want more.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/donald-trump/trump-wrongly-blames-obama-limits-coronavirus-test/

 

 

"Blame the previous guy" works really well for your first year, and maybe it even works okay for your second year.  If it is a really long-term and structural issue, maybe you can even stretch it out for a third year.  But at a certain point, if the previous guy has been gone for long enough it gets a little silly.

 

 

SJ

 

Inability to take responsibility for literally anything, is a serious character flaw.

 

In Trumps case, his enormous lack of character may be pivotal.

[Read the Footnotes]

What are the chances they will close the markets?

 

I couldn't get myself to buy anything so far, but on the next open, I'm taking a bite.

 

Never say never but I don't think they will. I don't think they closed any special days from 2007-2009.

Most people seem to be thinking about closure in terms of volatility, but there are other risks. In many pandemic simulations that I have read about, markets or the banking system have become dysfunctional at best. So that is certainly a possibility that planners worry about. I think it is a low probability event in this case.

 

In this particular instance, I think the biggest risk is that about 75% of the US population don't believe much of what comes out of Donald Trump's mouth in the best of times. His poor handling of this situation is probably undermining the confidence of many people who trusted him in the good times. If it was just his political opponents who didn't trust him, that would create less risk, but his own supporters know that what comes out of his mouth has little basis in fact. His supporters were willing to overlook that in the good times, but in the bad times they will worry about themselves and that will increase risk to the financial system.

 

Also don't forget that hurricane Sandy and 9/11 both resulted in the markets closing. SARS 2.0 has more in common with those than 2007-2009 in terms an ability to shut the markets from real world disruptions.

 

Weeks ago banks starting moving staff to their back up disaster locations, separating out different functions, creating redundant teams, etc. So they have been preparing. Assumptions are that without interventions, 40% of the workforce could be out at anyone time. Flattening the curve will help ensure essential functions and the function of the markets.

 

Finally, we shouldn't ignore the risk of disinformation, cyber attacks, etc. Frequently cooperation increases in times like these and countries tend to focus on their own problems too. I have seen some troubling behavior among foreign leader in the past couple of weeks with MBS being among the first to come to mind, but hopefully those risks are low.

[stahleyp]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

 

Here’s one. Let me know if you want more.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/donald-trump/trump-wrongly-blames-obama-limits-coronavirus-test/

 

haha fair enough!

[DooDiligence]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

 

Here’s one. Let me know if you want more.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/donald-trump/trump-wrongly-blames-obama-limits-coronavirus-test/

 

haha fair enough!

 

Sorry if I came off as a bit testy with that.

 

;)

[stahleyp]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/conspiracy-theory-that-coronavirus-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

 

Looks like China is trying to say the US started this. Should add a bit more intrigue to future trade talks.

 

 

Yeah, sure thing.  No doubt it was an American who was French-kissing a meerkat or a rattlesnake, or whatever other species this jumped from.  The Chinese government is a joke.

 

 

SJ

 

They’re just following the same playbook used by Trump.

Blame others for your own failures.

 

I don't recall Trump blaming someone else for something that he did? I know he calls everything a hoax and lies like no other but I don't recall a situation like that.

 

Here’s one. Let me know if you want more.

 

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/donald-trump/trump-wrongly-blames-obama-limits-coronavirus-test/

 

haha fair enough!

 

Sorry if I came off as a bit testy with that.

 

;)

 

Haha no worries. I'm not a Trump fan so I don't mind. I just couldn't think of anything like that.

[Dalal.Holdings]

A bit late but progress I’ll take:

 

New Coronavirus Test 10 Times Faster Is FDA Approved

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/roche-gets-clearance-for-coronavirus-test-that-s-10-times-faster

 

Federal government has been a major bottleneck thus far. You can’t absolve this administration of blame when it comes to that.

[Read the Footnotes]

A bit late but progress I’ll take:

 

New Coronavirus Test 10 Times Faster Is FDA Approved

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/roche-gets-clearance-for-coronavirus-test-that-s-10-times-faster

 

Federal government has been a major bottleneck thus far. You can’t absolve this administration of blame when it comes to that.

My belief is way may have the Oversight Committee, specifically a REPUBLICAN member, to thank for this happening. He called them out on this. The fact that the administration could not make this happen over months, and it could be that it was done within hours after a Republican committee member to asked some tough, embarrassing questions, is an absolute embarrassment of the Trump administration's management.