Coronavirus

[alwaysdrawing]

Here is a thread about the current situation in Seattle.  So it begins.  This was foreseeable a week ago.

 

Please take more action now to help prevent this from happening all over the US and the world.

 

https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562?s=20

 

REMOVED AS THE POSTER REMOVED.  POSSIBLY FAKE/MISINFORMATION

 

 

[Kaegi2011]

 

Well it looks like data is presenting with flu symptoms. Does not mention deaths. I would hope to god if people died they were tested for covid19. Dead people get just as much of a right to a test as living plus in this day and age a requirement I would imagine. I would imagine the data is due to.

 

1. Covid19 of course, it has flu like symptoms

2. Worries individuals/paranoid.

 

Otherwise how do you fake flu symptoms?

 

 

 

 

"Katie S

@scoville_katie

Replying to

@chrislhayes

I noticed about a month ago that we were treating a lot of patients for the flu that had negative flu tests. My mind goes back to that and I just wonder if we missed the bus even before we thought we did."

 

Maybe I work where Katie works LOL! jk. Worth a read of her thread!

 

But this is where I'm trying to reconcile.  You're saying that you're not seeing it.  But evidence suggest that flue like cases are increasing significantly, but we don't know due to what.  So I'm wondering if this is just a precursor of things to come, and you might not have seen it first hand. 

 

And I can't imagine that we are testing dead people for the virus - I would definitely save the testing capacity for those alive and potentially contained at this moment... 

 

So if that's the case, then are we undercounting BOTH deaths and people infected??

[orthopa]

@orthopa, what is your assessment of what went wrong in Italy? Why the high # of deaths and probability that occurs in the US?

 

I posted this earlier in the thread. I do not claim to be an expert on this. Just brainstorming like you guys.

 

 

 

Thats a good question, and I think this is alot of the reason for concern that it will spiral out of control in US. To be honest I don't know why Italy when to shit so fast. I have never worked there, don't know their facilities, protocols, patient populations, medications available,  etc.

 

Stuff that I would throw at a wall to see if it sticks?

 

1. Older population or population centers where disease has hit, we know it affects older people more, like nursing home in Washington.

2. More smokers? Covid 19 would be murder on someone with COPD, severe asthma, smoker etc.

3. Lower admission threshold? I dont know their protocols but medicine and treatment is not universal town to town, state to state, and certainly not country to country

 

I would argue it has nothing to do with testing vs Korea though why?

 

Latest updates are Italy 12462 positive, 827 deaths, Korea 7869 positive 66 deaths. How do you explain the difference?

 

Again there is no cure for Covid 19 so its not like Korea is curing people and Italy isnt. Again whether you are tested or not if you are to the point that you need a respirator (think dying) you will go in and be treated. Even if you test positive on day 1 you can do down hill quick if your old and immuno compromised so drive through testing would be great but your ass would still be in the ICU if you body couldn't handle the disease. Is it the case that S. Koreans are healthier? Maybe. Less lung disease? Maybe

 

So to summarize testing is not a cure, its a diagnosis, a label. Treatment for those positive is fluids, rest, tylenol for fever, steriods/breathing treatments for breathing issues. If you go down hill, its happening regardless of your test results as there is nothing to decrease the viral load.  My assumption is S. Koreas actually hands on treatment isnt much better in this day and age then Italy's so that leaves the pts.

 

I have read some believe S. Korea have been giving super super high doses of vitamin C IV with success. Maybe they are having success and never picked up the phone to call Lombardy. Idk.

 

Many people have cited Italy as a concern which is very valid. I think a good thought to ponder is why is Italy the rule and not the exception?  This has hit 180? countries by now. How is medicine and access to healthcare in the third world?What the hell is going on there?

 

The first patients in South Korea were young.

 

The first patients in Italy were older.

 

South Korea and Italy have nearly identical death rates by age bucket.

 

It's ok to just say I don't know.

 

Didn't I just say I didn't know? I didn't ask the question.

 

Your right. The age rates are identical per bucket! So how do you explain other then the patient make up? Why do you think Italy had more deaths? It shouldnt matter who was first. The virus doesn't care who it spreads to right?

 

Or your saying Old Koreans don't get the virus as easily as Old Italians?

 

[orthopa]

 

Well it looks like data is presenting with flu symptoms. Does not mention deaths. I would hope to god if people died they were tested for covid19. Dead people get just as much of a right to a test as living plus in this day and age a requirement I would imagine. I would imagine the data is due to.

 

1. Covid19 of course, it has flu like symptoms

2. Worries individuals/paranoid.

 

Otherwise how do you fake flu symptoms?

 

 

 

 

"Katie S

@scoville_katie

Replying to

@chrislhayes

I noticed about a month ago that we were treating a lot of patients for the flu that had negative flu tests. My mind goes back to that and I just wonder if we missed the bus even before we thought we did."

 

Maybe I work where Katie works LOL! jk. Worth a read of her thread!

 

But this is where I'm trying to reconcile.  You're saying that you're not seeing it.  But evidence suggest that flue like cases are increasing significantly, but we don't know due to what.  So I'm wondering if this is just a precursor of things to come, and you might not have seen it first hand. 

 

And I can't imagine that we are testing dead people for the virus - I would definitely save the testing capacity for those alive and potentially contained at this moment... 

 

So if that's the case, then are we undercounting BOTH deaths and people infected??

 

I never said I'm not seeing it. I currently don't have testing avail other then the protocol I just said came over from DOH. How can I diagnose someone without a positive Covid-19 test? I am seeing what you posted in that tweet. High increase in flu like symptoms with negative flu. I have made that clear I think multiple times haven't I?

 

No they are not testing bodies at the morgue. You asked about testing people who come in with flu like symptoms. I don't believe I have heard of any cases of DOA(have you?) covid-19. Today, if you have someone on life support/ventilator anywhere in America I would hope to god its known whether or not they have Covid19.

[Jurgis]

I'd put the chance that Orthopa is right at less than 2%.  But I've been continuing to mull the issue, since it's an interesting thought experiment--how can Orthopa's data point be reconciled with the 100 data points that contradict his claims?

 

One way it could be true is if the area around Orthopa previously had a coronavirus that infected people and gave them some sort of heightened immunity compared to everywhere else.  Or, maybe the COVID-19 came early to his region, but was a mutated version that happens to have a much lower rate of serious consequences.

 

I think it's much higher than 2%. The reality is many people are sick and not dying of pneumonia - I would assume a portion of posters on this very thread are experiencing symptoms as well as the rest of the population, or had experienced symptoms in Jan/Feb and recovered.

 

The first reported US case was January 21. This is an incredibly fast transmitting virus. The odds are, cases existed prior to Jan 21. And further, the odds are that the spread of this virus across the US was much faster than official reports claim. This is due to lack of testing i.e. lack of timely, accurate information.

 

But ultimately, I agree w/ the principle of: better safe than sorry. For the obvious reason, and for the secondary reason as it provides a "trial-run" on a global basis for future pandemics.

 

I am about 20% cash btw. If I didn't suffer from biases like anchoring and all that stuff I would think about 1/3 cash is the ideal amount right now.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

 

Question for you guys as I havent seem to be making any friends swimming against the tide! Above is the NEJM article on first case of corona virus. This is what I don't understand.

 

First US case was January 20st, with 4 days of symptoms and as I have read this is a very fast transmitting virus. Some have said this is very fast, some fast, symptoms take a while to show up, agree.

 

Please reconcile this for me. It has been exactly 2 months since this gentleman returned to the US from wuhan China. Is it out of the way to assume that there was community spread with this gentleman? 4 days of cough, fever, flew on a plane? Lets just work on that premise.

 

Now I have become lost with all of the projections, graphs, charts, etc. Pick whatever model you want. My question is this: Its been 2 months since that virus was officially detected in a known area. I'm not aware of this so please help. Is there overload in the area where this gentleman was? Are there people dying? What does it look like? Are they running out of ICU beds? How is california? They were not far behind and have a HUGE population!

 

I know there can be a delay in symptoms but isnt 2 months long enough for this virus to really get going, especially with lockdown, social distancing just happening now?

 

55 days from Jan 20 to March 15.

Assuming doubling every 4 days, you have a bit less than 2^14 = 16K cases in US right now.

 

But then you told us that you knew how to do math...

[orthopa]

Here is a thread about the current situation in Seattle.  So it begins.  This was foreseeable a week ago.

 

Please take more action now to help prevent this from happening all over the US and the world.

 

https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562?s=20

 

The Seattle situation isn’t quite at Lombardy levels yet… but it’s getting there.

 

First of all regarding the clinicians. None are sleeping more than a couple hrs a night. Everyone is utterly exhausted. My colleague has seen so many people die as to have become totally numb.

 

 

Holy Shit. Maybe New York Times is slow to update the Washington death count? Still says 40. This guy must have seen a lot of deaths since the nursing home ones if he is numb.

 

Looks like 42 still as of Sunday PM per Washington local news. Maybe they will be updated tomorrow.

 

https://www.kuow.org/stories/live-coverage-covid-19-in-seattle-wa-state

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Probability of recession has to be near 100% right now. Severity of it is probably the real question. One area of weakness I'll be watching for is the highly indebted companies that need to refi debt. Maybe this is the shock that starts the unwind of the huge corporate debt buildup that so many have been warning about for several years.

 

Agreed. Pretty certain that in hindsight the start date of the recession will have been before today.

[Guest Schwab711]

@orthopa, what is your assessment of what went wrong in Italy? Why the high # of deaths and probability that occurs in the US?

 

I posted this earlier in the thread. I do not claim to be an expert on this. Just brainstorming like you guys.

 

 

 

Thats a good question, and I think this is alot of the reason for concern that it will spiral out of control in US. To be honest I don't know why Italy when to shit so fast. I have never worked there, don't know their facilities, protocols, patient populations, medications available,  etc.

 

Stuff that I would throw at a wall to see if it sticks?

 

1. Older population or population centers where disease has hit, we know it affects older people more, like nursing home in Washington.

2. More smokers? Covid 19 would be murder on someone with COPD, severe asthma, smoker etc.

3. Lower admission threshold? I dont know their protocols but medicine and treatment is not universal town to town, state to state, and certainly not country to country

 

I would argue it has nothing to do with testing vs Korea though why?

 

Latest updates are Italy 12462 positive, 827 deaths, Korea 7869 positive 66 deaths. How do you explain the difference?

 

Again there is no cure for Covid 19 so its not like Korea is curing people and Italy isnt. Again whether you are tested or not if you are to the point that you need a respirator (think dying) you will go in and be treated. Even if you test positive on day 1 you can do down hill quick if your old and immuno compromised so drive through testing would be great but your ass would still be in the ICU if you body couldn't handle the disease. Is it the case that S. Koreans are healthier? Maybe. Less lung disease? Maybe

 

So to summarize testing is not a cure, its a diagnosis, a label. Treatment for those positive is fluids, rest, tylenol for fever, steriods/breathing treatments for breathing issues. If you go down hill, its happening regardless of your test results as there is nothing to decrease the viral load.  My assumption is S. Koreas actually hands on treatment isnt much better in this day and age then Italy's so that leaves the pts.

 

I have read some believe S. Korea have been giving super super high doses of vitamin C IV with success. Maybe they are having success and never picked up the phone to call Lombardy. Idk.

 

Many people have cited Italy as a concern which is very valid. I think a good thought to ponder is why is Italy the rule and not the exception?  This has hit 180? countries by now. How is medicine and access to healthcare in the third world?What the hell is going on there?

 

The first patients in South Korea were young.

 

The first patients in Italy were older.

 

South Korea and Italy have nearly identical death rates by age bucket.

 

It's ok to just say I don't know.

 

Didn't I just say I didn't know? I didn't ask the question.

 

Your right. The age rates are identical per bucket! So how do you explain other then the patient make up? Why do you think Italy had more deaths? It shouldnt matter who was first. The virus doesn't care who it spreads to right?

 

Or your saying Old Koreans don't get the virus as easily as Old Italians?

 

Patient X in South Korea was younger and had a younger network than Patient X in Italy. They've actually had nearly identical results with the virus (moderate/severe cases % and CFR). The difference is we are looking at sub-segments of total populations. A higher than proportional % of infected in Italy were older. Opposite in South Korea.

 

SK vs. Italy:

https://twitter.com/JRWhiteNoise/status/1239095497685643265

 

Death rates:

 

The cruise ship with ~700 patients has had ~1% CFR, though it's still early. That's probably best case scenario.

 

 

I don't mean to jump on you and I appreciate you being open to new info. I'm just frustrated that it took so long to convince folks and that it's going to be an expensive delay. I'm frustrated my office is still open when we could easily WFH, so I won't be able to help my parents for another 2 weeks if they need me. I'm just frustrated. I have good problems relative to others right now.

[orthopa]

I'd put the chance that Orthopa is right at less than 2%.  But I've been continuing to mull the issue, since it's an interesting thought experiment--how can Orthopa's data point be reconciled with the 100 data points that contradict his claims?

 

One way it could be true is if the area around Orthopa previously had a coronavirus that infected people and gave them some sort of heightened immunity compared to everywhere else.  Or, maybe the COVID-19 came early to his region, but was a mutated version that happens to have a much lower rate of serious consequences.

 

I think it's much higher than 2%. The reality is many people are sick and not dying of pneumonia - I would assume a portion of posters on this very thread are experiencing symptoms as well as the rest of the population, or had experienced symptoms in Jan/Feb and recovered.

 

The first reported US case was January 21. This is an incredibly fast transmitting virus. The odds are, cases existed prior to Jan 21. And further, the odds are that the spread of this virus across the US was much faster than official reports claim. This is due to lack of testing i.e. lack of timely, accurate information.

 

But ultimately, I agree w/ the principle of: better safe than sorry. For the obvious reason, and for the secondary reason as it provides a "trial-run" on a global basis for future pandemics.

 

I am about 20% cash btw. If I didn't suffer from biases like anchoring and all that stuff I would think about 1/3 cash is the ideal amount right now.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

 

Question for you guys as I havent seem to be making any friends swimming against the tide! Above is the NEJM article on first case of corona virus. This is what I don't understand.

 

First US case was January 20st, with 4 days of symptoms and as I have read this is a very fast transmitting virus. Some have said this is very fast, some fast, symptoms take a while to show up, agree.

 

Please reconcile this for me. It has been exactly 2 months since this gentleman returned to the US from wuhan China. Is it out of the way to assume that there was community spread with this gentleman? 4 days of cough, fever, flew on a plane? Lets just work on that premise.

 

Now I have become lost with all of the projections, graphs, charts, etc. Pick whatever model you want. My question is this: Its been 2 months since that virus was officially detected in a known area. I'm not aware of this so please help. Is there overload in the area where this gentleman was? Are there people dying? What does it look like? Are they running out of ICU beds? How is california? They were not far behind and have a HUGE population!

 

I know there can be a delay in symptoms but isnt 2 months long enough for this virus to really get going, especially with lockdown, social distancing just happening now?

 

55 days from Jan 20 to March 15.

Assuming doubling every 4 days, you have a bit less than 2^14 = 16K cases in US right now.

 

But then you told us that you knew how to do math...

 

Oh yeah your definitely right. 16,000 cases only in US so far sorry.  ;D So how many in the Washington area by your estimation if 16k in US? 50-60 total?

[Dalal.Holdings]

Here is a thread about the current situation in Seattle.  So it begins.  This was foreseeable a week ago.

 

Please take more action now to help prevent this from happening all over the US and the world.

 

https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562?s=20

 

 

I really hope this is not true...

 

If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout...

 

It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

[alwaysdrawing]

I really hope this is not true...

 

If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout...

 

It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

 

Yes, the experts are right.  This is going to be awful.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I really hope this is not true...

 

If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout...

 

It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

 

Yes, the experts are right.  This is going to be awful.

 

Sounds like he's in touch with an intensive care doc at the hospital dealing with the worst of the worst of this in the United States. I hope this is an extreme case. I don't want it to be true...

[Kaegi2011]

 

Well it looks like data is presenting with flu symptoms. Does not mention deaths. I would hope to god if people died they were tested for covid19. Dead people get just as much of a right to a test as living plus in this day and age a requirement I would imagine. I would imagine the data is due to.

 

1. Covid19 of course, it has flu like symptoms

2. Worries individuals/paranoid.

 

Otherwise how do you fake flu symptoms?

 

 

 

 

"Katie S

@scoville_katie

Replying to

@chrislhayes

I noticed about a month ago that we were treating a lot of patients for the flu that had negative flu tests. My mind goes back to that and I just wonder if we missed the bus even before we thought we did."

 

Maybe I work where Katie works LOL! jk. Worth a read of her thread!

 

But this is where I'm trying to reconcile.  You're saying that you're not seeing it.  But evidence suggest that flue like cases are increasing significantly, but we don't know due to what.  So I'm wondering if this is just a precursor of things to come, and you might not have seen it first hand. 

 

And I can't imagine that we are testing dead people for the virus - I would definitely save the testing capacity for those alive and potentially contained at this moment... 

 

So if that's the case, then are we undercounting BOTH deaths and people infected??

 

I never said I'm not seeing it. I currently don't have testing avail other then the protocol I just said came over from DOH. How can I diagnose someone without a positive Covid-19 test? I am seeing what you posted in that tweet. High increase in flu like symptoms with negative flu. I have made that clear I think multiple times haven't I?

 

No they are not testing bodies at the morgue. You asked about testing people who come in with flu like symptoms. I don't believe I have heard of any cases of DOA(have you?) covid-19. Today, if you have someone on life support/ventilator anywhere in America I would hope to god its known whether or not they have Covid19.

 

I don't mean to put words into your mouth, but I think you have said that a lot of people are infected and we're not seeing the deaths, so the conclusion is that CFR is lower than what's out there.  So I'm asking - is the disconnect with what other countries are seeing that both infected and deaths are undercounted (vs. just denominator being undercounted)? 

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html

 

Also, debunking of the ibuprofen thing that circulated: https://www.thejournal.ie/ibuprofen-cuh-coronavirus-whatsapp-5047311-Mar2020/

[Read the Footnotes]

I really hope this is not true...

 

If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout...

 

It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

 

I now know multiple CoB&F board members who have it and/or their families have it. These are fantastic contributors to the board. I won't reveal who, but you would want to help them. The list will grow.

 

It won't happen to all of us at the same time and some of us will live in areas that get lucky. A lot of us are going to be at home for months.

 

While we are cooped up, let's use our skills to benefit each other and society. Here are some of the skills represented on this board:

• quantitative analysis,
  
• contrarian thinking,
  
• communicating complicated ideas simply,
  
• soothing scared clients and helping them make choices under conditions of uncertainty
  
• forecasting and modeling
  
• finding unique opportunities or under-recognized opportunities
  
• research methods
  
• compiling data and reference materials
  

It's time to apply these skills like we are executing a full out war mobilization against this virus. Please identify your unique skills and find a way to contribute by starting a thread or contribute to helping in this fight. I'm convinced we can have an impact.

 

Can we start new threads to help each other out? We are good at analyzing and collecting data.

 

I would suggest:

 

1) Some forecasts of how much further behind we are relative to Italy. Rank ordering of Seattle, Boston, NYC, LA, etc and the days separations between when the curves will go vertical, the risks for each area of hospitals becoming overwhelmed, etc.

 

2) It would be great to see some polls created to use the wisdom of crowds to forecast the unknowable

 

3) New threads that focus on links to the best information on how to take care of yourself in expectation of getting sick and how to treat once sick. It would be great if someone could curate this the way Norm curates the CoB&F Fairfax Lollapalooza thread

 

4) A thread specifically for analyzing the bellwether town(s), I assume Seattle, but maybe another will emerge.

 

5) How long lock downs are likely to last

 

6) When and how long hospitals are likely to be at their maximum capacity, above their capacity or failing

 

7) What percentage of medical personnel and others will be impacted and at what point will it impact delivery of services

 

8 ) Brainstorm other, potentially better ways to organize and contribute

 

Finally, if you're convinced this is going to be bad, please contact friends, especially healthcare professionals and essential service providers, you would be surprised how many are still not taking this seriously or they take it seriously but they are not getting leadership from above and they need to be encouraged to speak up for everyone's benefit. If these first responders, medical professionals etc are still in denial in some areas of the country, then it won't go well for people there.

[orthopa]

 

Well it looks like data is presenting with flu symptoms. Does not mention deaths. I would hope to god if people died they were tested for covid19. Dead people get just as much of a right to a test as living plus in this day and age a requirement I would imagine. I would imagine the data is due to.

 

1. Covid19 of course, it has flu like symptoms

2. Worries individuals/paranoid.

 

Otherwise how do you fake flu symptoms?

 

 

 

 

"Katie S

@scoville_katie

Replying to

@chrislhayes

I noticed about a month ago that we were treating a lot of patients for the flu that had negative flu tests. My mind goes back to that and I just wonder if we missed the bus even before we thought we did."

 

Maybe I work where Katie works LOL! jk. Worth a read of her thread!

 

But this is where I'm trying to reconcile.  You're saying that you're not seeing it.  But evidence suggest that flue like cases are increasing significantly, but we don't know due to what.  So I'm wondering if this is just a precursor of things to come, and you might not have seen it first hand. 

 

And I can't imagine that we are testing dead people for the virus - I would definitely save the testing capacity for those alive and potentially contained at this moment... 

 

So if that's the case, then are we undercounting BOTH deaths and people infected??

 

I never said I'm not seeing it. I currently don't have testing avail other then the protocol I just said came over from DOH. How can I diagnose someone without a positive Covid-19 test? I am seeing what you posted in that tweet. High increase in flu like symptoms with negative flu. I have made that clear I think multiple times haven't I?

 

No they are not testing bodies at the morgue. You asked about testing people who come in with flu like symptoms. I don't believe I have heard of any cases of DOA(have you?) covid-19. Today, if you have someone on life support/ventilator anywhere in America I would hope to god its known whether or not they have Covid19.

 

I don't mean to put words into your mouth, but I think you have said that a lot of people are infected and we're not seeing the deaths, so the conclusion is that CFR is lower than what's out there.  So I'm asking - is the disconnect with what other countries are seeing that both infected and deaths are undercounted (vs. just denominator being undercounted)?

 

 

Ok yes I believe that is the case and I think that matches the data in the tweet you posted. How else do you explain the sudden increase in flu symptoms as of March 1st? Like I said they aren't faking it. What we would need to know is what the flu test results are. I would say you should have a very high suspicion that it is Covid19 during a declared epidemic, flu like symptoms, and negative flu.

 

Huge increase in flu like symptoms coming into ER, and then likely being told to self quarantine according to DOH guidelines if symptoms are mild.

[mcliu]

@orthopa, thanks for the colour.

 

@readthefootnotes, that’s actually a really good idea.. maybe we can figure out the facts and get an edge on the market, especially if we figure out when the virus is getting contained. Then you might get a few days/weeks headstart to buy..

[Kaegi2011]

I really hope this is not true...

 

If we expect that infections in the United States are recent (ie. orthopa's theory about millions having this for months is false), then sudden increase in ICU patients/mortality will be seen 2-3 weeks from when people caught the infection. That means it will first happen in Washington State, then NY northern suburbs/parts of CA....then other places throughout...

 

It's only Mar 15th and most infections in U.S. likely are new...

 

I now know multiple CoB&F board members who have it and/or their families have it. These are fantastic contributors to the board. I won't reveal who, but you would want to help them. The list will grow.

 

It won't happen to all of us at the same time and some of us will live in areas that get lucky. A lot of us are going to be at home for months.

 

While we are cooped up, let's use our skills to benefit each other and society. Here are some of the skills represented on this board:

• quantitative analysis,
  
• contrarian thinking,
  
• communicating complicated ideas simply,
  
• soothing scared clients and helping them make choices under conditions of uncertainty
  
• forecasting and modeling
  
• finding unique opportunities or under-recognized opportunities
  
• research methods
  
• compiling data and reference materials
  

It's time to apply these skills like we are executing a full out war mobilization against this virus. Please identify your unique skills and find a way to contribute by starting a thread or contribute to helping in this fight. I'm convinced we can have an impact.

 

Can we start new threads to help each other out? We are good at analyzing and collecting data.

 

I would suggest:

 

1) Some forecasts of how much further behind we are relative to Italy. Rank ordering of Seattle, Boston, NYC, LA, etc and the days separations between when the curves will go vertical, the risks for each area of hospitals becoming overwhelmed, etc.

 

2) It would be great to see some polls created to use the wisdom of crowds to forecast the unknowable

 

3) New threads that focus on links to the best information on how to take care of yourself in expectation of getting sick and how to treat once sick. It would be great if someone could curate this the way Norm curates the CoB&F Fairfax Lollapalooza thread

 

4) A thread specifically for analyzing the bellwether town(s), I assume Seattle, but maybe another will emerge.

 

5) How long lock downs are likely to last

 

6) When and how long hospitals are likely to be at their maximum capacity, above their capacity or failing

 

7) What percentage of medical personnel and others will be impacted and at what point will it impact delivery of services

 

8 ) Brainstorm other, potentially better ways to organize and contribute

 

Finally, if you're convinced this is going to be bad, please contact friends, especially healthcare professionals and essential service providers, you would be surprised how many are still not taking this seriously or they take it seriously but they are not getting leadership from above and they need to be encouraged to speak up for everyone's benefit. If these first responders, medical professionals etc are still in denial in some areas of the country, then it won't go well for people there.

 

Great idea.  For one, I would say that anyone who's not on Twitter should use it as a means of research.  Not everything you read will be true, so you'll have to put on your BS hat and figure it out, but I have faith for people on this board.  I've found it to be an incredible educational tool. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

I now know multiple CoB&F board members who have it and/or their families have it. These are fantastic contributors to the board. I won't reveal who, but you would want to help them. The list will grow.

 

It won't happen to all of us at the same time and some of us will live in areas that get lucky. A lot of us are going to be at home for months.

 

While we are cooped up, let's use our skills to benefit each other and society.

 

Strongly agree.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Here is a thread about the current situation in Seattle.  So it begins.  This was foreseeable a week ago.

 

Please take more action now to help prevent this from happening all over the US and the world.

 

https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562?s=20

 

Tweet taken down. Crossed my fingers it was all untrue.

[Read the Footnotes]

Here is a thread about the current situation in Seattle.  So it begins.  This was foreseeable a week ago.

 

Please take more action now to help prevent this from happening all over the US and the world.

 

https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562?s=20

 

Tweet taken down. Crossed my fingers it was all untrue.

 

This is a reminder to be scrupulous with our sourcing during this time. If disinformation is an issue during the good times, this would be a fantastic opportunity for disinformation.

 

Yet another reason that members of this board, a lot of whom have known each other for years could contribute to analyzing the situation for the common good. It's pretty amazing how close my estimates came to what has happened. Many people I know through this board also were very accurate in their forecasts. Let's get on the same side of the table and work together.

[alwaysdrawing]

Here is a thread about the current situation in Seattle.  So it begins.  This was foreseeable a week ago.

 

Please take more action now to help prevent this from happening all over the US and the world.

 

https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562?s=20

 

Tweet taken down. Crossed my fingers it was all untrue.

 

This is a reminder to be scrupulous with our sourcing during this time. If disinformation is an issue during the good times, this would be a fantastic opportunity for disinformation.

 

Yet another reason that members of this board, a lot of whom have known each other for years could contribute to analyzing the situation for the common good. It's pretty amazing how close my estimates came to what has happened. Many people I know through this board also were very accurate in their forecasts. Let's get on the same side of the table and work together.

 

Removed the text from my post, and I apologize for posting a rumor.  Looked to be credible from an MD, but clearly not.

[Guest cherzeca]

 

I now know multiple CoB&F board members who have it and/or their families have it. These are fantastic contributors to the board. I won't reveal who, but you would want to help them. The list will grow.

 

It won't happen to all of us at the same time and some of us will live in areas that get lucky. A lot of us are going to be at home for months.

 

While we are cooped up, let's use our skills to benefit each other and society.

 

Strongly agree.

 

20,000-60,000 die in the US every flu season.  61 deaths so far from covid-19 (25 from a single life care facility in wash). and we are shutting down the nation.

 

ignorance is bliss. 

[Jurgis]

"It's just a better version of flu" people are still alive... praise the lord!

[hardincap]

@cherzeca check out where Italy was a few weeks back. The fear is we’ll have the same exploding growth, though I am cautiously optimistic that measures taken last few days will help us avoid the Italy nightmare scenario