Coronavirus

[Castanza]

Ackman is on CNBC about to breakdown crying. Very passionate about this.

 

He's like that about everything though. But I generally agree with what he was saying.

[Gamecock-YT]

Ackman is on CNBC about to breakdown crying. Very passionate about this.

 

He's like that about everything though. But I generally agree with what he was saying.

 

Me too

[james22]

He's right, of course.

 

At some point though we'll trade elderly lives to save the economy.

[Liberty]

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/viral-social-media-posts-offer-false-coronavirus-tips/

[ERICOPOLY]

And now WWII style manufacturing:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/politics/trump-defense-production-act-coronavirus/index.html

 

 

[minten]

He's right, of course.

 

At some point though we'll trade elderly lives to save the economy.

 

as we always have been, nothing new here.

 

we could have put our economy in lockdown every winter to contain the spread of the flu. only imagine how many lives of the elderly we would have saved. we never did though.

 

car speed limits vs pedestrians

air polution vs the sick

 

and i can go on and on and on.

 

if we would prioritize lives over everything else, nothing would still get done.  and people would still die (because that's what people eventually do). 

[stahleyp]

Looks like we're only about 12% away from when Trump won (not his inauguration) and not including dividends.

[John Hjorth]

Me too

 

Aren't we in need of new hashtags?

 

How about :

 

#metooCOVID-19+

#metooCOVID-19?

#metooCOVID-19-

[ERICOPOLY]

Roche's tests can give a result 3.5 hrs after the sample gets to the lab.  These tests have been FDA approved.  I'm very optimistic that we'll follow the S. Korea model.

 

If you were writing a fictional novel, could you have the US Govt buy Roche and order manufacturers to put these things together?  What timeline would it take (realistically)?  And have the military set up labs?

 

The ONLY reason why we all have to stay home right now is because we don't know who is positive.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

I wonder what the outcome would be like if the "shelter in place" orders only applied to households containing a person who is 65+ yrs of age, or has chronic health conditions.  And focus the bail-out dollars on sustaining them and delivering food/care to them until a vaccine arrives.

 

The rest of the population, after three months, would have developed "herd immunity" and normal life could largely resume.

 

Great idea. I would love for Trump to be “sheltered in place”. The sooner the better :-)

 

Yes, with an orange suit to match his skin color.

[Liberty]

Bill Gates doing an AMA on Reddit right now:

 

https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

[Spekulatius]

Ackman is on CNBC about to breakdown crying. Very passionate about this.

 

Shutting down the US for 30 days - I guess he also means the stock market? Did he get a margin call?

[Gamecock-YT]

Here’s Ackman video. He spoke for much longer so there might be an even longer video out there somewhere.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

[Liberty]

Here’s Ackman video. He spoke for much longer so there might be an even longer video out there somewhere.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

 

Youtube video:

[Guest cherzeca]

He's right, of course.

 

At some point though we'll trade elderly lives to save the economy.

 

as we always have been, nothing new here.

 

we could have put our economy in lockdown every winter to contain the spread of the flu. only imagine how many lives of the elderly we would have saved. we never did though.

 

car speed limits vs pedestrians

air polution vs the sick

 

and i can go on and on and on.

 

if we would prioritize lives over everything else, nothing would still get done.  and people would still die (because that's what people eventually do).

 

it would make more sense to be more proactive generally re elder health, meaning having a registry of everyone over 65, their health status, their family status etc, so as to be in a better position to offer various forms of aid in an emergency like this...then one could focus on the elder population, and not impose constraints just generally which are more costly in terms of economic effect...but privacy laws...

[Dalal.Holdings]

He's right, of course.

 

At some point though we'll trade elderly lives to save the economy.

 

as we always have been, nothing new here.

 

we could have put our economy in lockdown every winter to contain the spread of the flu. only imagine how many lives of the elderly we would have saved. we never did though.

 

car speed limits vs pedestrians

air polution vs the sick

 

and i can go on and on and on.

 

if we would prioritize lives over everything else, nothing would still get done.  and people would still die (because that's what people eventually do).

 

It seems some people seriously lack the ability to comprehend the "flatten the curve" to avoid healthcare overload concept. Seems really simple, but some people still do not get it.

 

In other news,

“The president ordered a Navy hospital ship with 1,000 beds to head to New York Harbor.”

 

NYC just had a handful of cases 1-2 weeks ago. Now ICU/vent overload is a very real threat. If you think that the response to flatten the curve is overblown (esp after witnessing Italy), time should not be wasted arguing with you.

[stahleyp]

Here’s Ackman video. He spoke for much longer so there might be an even longer video out there somewhere.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

 

Youtube video:

 

Well...he's close to capitulating. Though. he said he was buying so I guess not yet.

[minten]

Seems they are already widely using these drugs in Italy and elsewhere, so unlikely to be a game changer.

 

Do you have a source on this being used on anyone but the very sick (in hospital)?  The presumption seems to be you give this to people far before they are at this stage as they recover quicker and are contagious for a much shorter period of time. The subjects in the study were volunteers and not critical.

[KCLarkin]

No source. Or rather I have a source but don’t recall where it is. Believe it was Belgian medical guidelines. Basically, standard of care across most countries was to give these meds to critical patients or high risk patients. The adverse events are concerning enough to avoid using in mild cases and should only be given when patient is hospitalized. Also, concern that these are immune suppressants so will actually make things worse. Remdesivir is most promising but not approved and very limited supply.

 

I think the evidence is that these drugs work, but since they are already being used I wouldn’t expect any dramatic improvement in treatment effectiveness in North America.

 

Edit:

 

Here is the source. See Annex 2. Of course, just because these are the clinical guidelines doesn't mean they are being followed.

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/COVID-19_InterimGuidelines_Treatment_ENG.pdf

 

[Viking]

Here’s Ackman video. He spoke for much longer so there might be an even longer video out there somewhere.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

 

Youtube video:

 

Understanding where we are today in the crisis is pretty straight forward. Where the economy is going in the next week or two is coming in to focus. What the economy looks like in 3-6 months is very unclear.

 

Ackman sees two paths available:

1.) continue down the current road of soft lock down will put the US in a depression. The reason is pretty simple: current measures will essentially put all hospitality companies in bankruptcy (airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise etc). As layoffs happen, the next wave will take out another band of companies. This will continue in successive waves until most companies are insolvent (Great Depression).

2.) or the US and the globe does a coordinated 30 day full lock down (Wuhan style). This will give governments time to establish a South Korea type testing system. After 30 days you slowly get back to new normal. New normal will not fully happen until a vaccine is developed in 12-18 months.

 

He is buying stocks today because he thinks Trump will pick 2. The second part of this statement is not being communicated by news organizations who are saying ‘but he is buying stocks’.

 

Holy shit....

 

PS: CNBC had Bill Miller on directly afterwards and he advised buying US banks... crazy cheap at current prices :-)

[stahleyp]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

[KCLarkin]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

Absolutely. However, there is some question about who will benefit. The creditors or the shareholders? In most cases, it will be shareholders but there will be a shakeout.

[rranjan]

Bill Gates doing an AMA on Reddit right now:

 

https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

 

Thanks for posting. I didn't learn too much new here, but it was nice to hear directly from Bill.

[Viking]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C); the companies survived but shareholders had their head handed to themselves.

 

Shadow banking system might be the next shoe to fall... overleveraged companies.

 

Oil and gas industry...

 

Looks to me like their might be a real bifurcation in the market. A stock pickers market. 30% of companies weather the storm and 70% get shit kicked. Not great for ETF holders.

 

 

[stahleyp]

10 years from now, do you think the economy will look more like it did a month ago or as it looks today? Depending on how you answer that, determines how you should invest.

 

It looks to me like airlines, hotels, restaurants, cruise industry, travel industry, Boeing are all essentially bankrupt as of today. Most will not survive with no revenue if we do a soft lockdown that next 2-3 months. We know the government is going to try and bail some out. That is a tough thing for an investor to figure out (who the winners and losers are going to be). Didn’t work great for bank investors in 2008 (BAC and C).

 

That's why you have to understand your circle of competence. People get slaughtered because they think they know more than they do. By the way, are you still like 90%+ cash, Viking?