Coronavirus

[Liberty]

Thread on China measures:

[minten]

Thread on China measures:

 

Impressive. But let's be realistic here: we would never ever be able to implement anything remotely like this in our countries.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Im surprised your allowed in the ICU's in NY. I assume you have been to the ones in Kings county and LA too huh? ::)

 

So its the graph that does it huh? Fuck the 1800 a day dying from heart disease? 179 so far from Corona virus. Avg 3.4 per state. You are not concerned about the other because you went your entire life not being aware 24 hours a day of cardiovascular disease. Your numb to it. This is new and exciting. Death does not concern you. You seem to relish in the fear, we all have our thing.  You should make a graph from the start of the year to now, 1800 a day of cardiac deaths and map those out vs corona. That would be fun to watch.

 

Oh, its how these people die, not that they die. Ok. I just think you get off on the fear, cool whatever.

 

Its still coming huh? When will you be wrong? My early assumption already is if/when the deaths fail to take of exponentially you will pivot to the flattening the curve is working.

 

Deaths from COVID are already exponential in USA. A graph of heart disease deaths would be a straight line with no change in slope day to day (i.e. a linear plot, not an exponential). I am concerned about it more than cancer or heart disease.

 

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so”. -MT

[Kaegi2011]

I hope everyone by now has noticed the resemblance between modeling in the finance world (for example structured finance) and the modeling being done by epidemiologists today in our world.  we have epidemiologists with models and assumptions, telling the country what we should be doing in response to a novel virus.  resembles to me a bad trade in the finance world.  cant we fire the epidemiologists like we can some wayward financial analyst?

 

Not sure I understand this. A month ago, no one was dead in Italy. Now 3000+ plus are dead with an additional 400-500 coming in daily despite the fact the entire country has been shut down for 9 days.

 

Similar numbers in the US would be 15,000 dead in 2 weeks time with a full shutdown - but we haven't done that yet. LA just announced it. Nowhere else has and we have over 100k confirmed cases w/o testing.

 

This is already on course to be way worse than the 30k annually from the flu even w/ the shutdown which hasn't been implemented yet. I'm not trying to fear monger - just extrapolating the data that's available

 

What I find mind-boggling is that the first confirmed case in Italy was on Jan 31.

The first confirmed case in the USA (WA state) was on Jan 21.

 

Obviously the two areas are different, but to date there are 74 coronavirus deaths in WA, versus 3,400 in Italy.

 

On the flip side, let's compare Italy vs NYC:

 

Italy first case: Jan 31

NYC first case: March 1

 

NYC has about 4500 cases and about 30 deaths.

 

When Italy had about 4600 cases, deaths were around 175.

 

It's still not clear to me that we've counted the cause of death correctly in the US so far.  Orthopa mentioned previously that we're not wasting tests on folks who have died (rightly so...), so absent that how does one put cause of death as CV19?

[Liberty]

Thread on China measures:

 

Impressive. But let's be realistic here: we would never ever be able to implement anything remotely like this in our countries.

 

I don't know. Depends how bad things get. At some point, people demand it, it's like wartime mobilization (and not a "foreign war" where people feel it's over there, but one where you feel like the third reich and imperial armies have you in a pincer and may come for your hometown next).

 

Not there yet, but a couple weeks ago nobody would've said that all these lockdowns were obviously going to happen in the US, so things move fast.

[Guest cherzeca]

I hope everyone by now has noticed the resemblance between modeling in the finance world (for example structured finance) and the modeling being done by epidemiologists today in our world.  we have epidemiologists with models and assumptions, telling the country what we should be doing in response to a novel virus.  resembles to me a bad trade in the finance world.  cant we fire the epidemiologists like we can some wayward financial analyst?

 

Not sure I understand this. A month ago, no one was dead in Italy. Now 3000+ plus are dead with an additional 400-500 coming in daily despite the fact the entire country has been shut down for 9 days.

 

Similar numbers in the US would be 15,000 dead in 2 weeks time with a full shutdown - but we haven't done that yet. LA just announced it. Nowhere else has and we have over 100k confirmed cases w/o testing.

 

This is already on course to be way worse than the 30k annually from the flu even w/ the shutdown which hasn't been implemented yet. I'm not trying to fear monger - just extrapolating the data that's available

 

real simple. if you build a model and it tells you to do something stupid but you do it anyhow because you trust the model and have no common sense, then you do something stupid.

 

 

[Read the Footnotes]

I hope everyone by now has noticed the resemblance between modeling in the finance world (for example structured finance) and the modeling being done by epidemiologists today in our world.  we have epidemiologists with models and assumptions, telling the country what we should be doing in response to a novel virus.  resembles to me a bad trade in the finance world.  cant we fire the epidemiologists like we can some wayward financial analyst?

 

Not sure I understand this. A month ago, no one was dead in Italy. Now 3000+ plus are dead with an additional 400-500 coming in daily despite the fact the entire country has been shut down for 9 days.

 

Similar numbers in the US would be 15,000 dead in 2 weeks time with a full shutdown - but we haven't done that yet. LA just announced it. Nowhere else has and we have over 100k confirmed cases w/o testing.

 

This is already on course to be way worse than the 30k annually from the flu even w/ the shutdown which hasn't been implemented yet. I'm not trying to fear monger - just extrapolating the data that's available

 

real simple. if you build a model and it tells you to do something stupid but you do it anyhow because you trust the model and have no common sense, then you do something stupid.

Please share your model with us.

[Read the Footnotes]

This could be excellent news. Hopefully more good news like this to come.

 

https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/20-20-bioresponse-to-launch-rapid-coronavirus-test-kits-in-u-s-following-green-light-from-fda/

[willie2013]

Mass transit ?

[Guest cherzeca]

I wouldn't use a model that causes the entire US economic system to freeze up.  that creates more costs than benefits. 

 

I would use common sense. 

 

the only part of the population threatened is elderly and immunosuppressed.  the mitigation strictures should have focused on them.  that way everyone needing a mask (that population) and testing could be helped far more efficiently than we are now doing.  preventive measures also for medical providers simply because of their repeated exposure when treating cases.  for the rest of us, this is a flu that may or may not make us sick, but from which the vast majority will recover. 

 

so telling us to stop life and refrain from all economic and social activity is absurd...the kind of absurd that only a statistical epidemiologist would find rational.  and yet we all point to the experts and say let's do what they say because we have all become enamored with the false promise of technological expertise when applied to the ordering of our lives.

[Guest Schwab711]

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

[Read the Footnotes]

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

Given the response above, that may be a safe assumption, but I would welcome anyone who can prove epidemiologists wrong as well as the most credible participants in this thread by sharing with us their own complex model and a cost benefit analysis. The person with the best model wins, and so far the entire world's experts on the subject seem to agree that the benefits merit the costs.

[cobafdek]

I hope everyone by now has noticed the resemblance between modeling in the finance world (for example structured finance) and the modeling being done by epidemiologists today in our world.  we have epidemiologists with models and assumptions, telling the country what we should be doing in response to a novel virus.  resembles to me a bad trade in the finance world.  cant we fire the epidemiologists like we can some wayward financial analyst?

 

Not sure I understand this. A month ago, no one was dead in Italy. Now 3000+ plus are dead with an additional 400-500 coming in daily despite the fact the entire country has been shut down for 9 days.

 

Similar numbers in the US would be 15,000 dead in 2 weeks time with a full shutdown - but we haven't done that yet. LA just announced it. Nowhere else has and we have over 100k confirmed cases w/o testing.

 

This is already on course to be way worse than the 30k annually from the flu even w/ the shutdown which hasn't been implemented yet. I'm not trying to fear monger - just extrapolating the data that's available

 

real simple. if you build a model and it tells you to do something stupid but you do it anyhow because you trust the model and have no common sense, then you do something stupid.

Please share your model with us.

 

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

 

cherzeca is correct:

 

"A contentious exchange during the March 11 House Homeland Security Committee hearing on the coronavirus response revealed this reality. During the hearing, acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli explained he had advised the president to ban travel from China even though “the academic model suggested not to do that.” Cuccinelli further stressed that “the president was well aware” that the existing models recommended against a China travel ban but that Trump nonetheless instituted the ban."

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/neither-biden-nor-sanders-would-have-saved-american-lives-with-travel-bans-like-trump-did/

 

 

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

Given the response above, that may be a safe assumption, but I would welcome anyone who can prove epidemiologists wrong as well as the most credible participants in this thread by sharing with own complex model and a cost benefit analysis. The person with the best model wins, and so far the entire world's experts on the subject seem to agree that the benefits merit the costs.

 

are the elderly and immunosupressed getting the complete preventitive/mitigation attention they deserve?  of course not, because we are wasting scarce resources on all of us who dont need it...and cratering the economy to boot.

 

the point is not to prove epidemiologists right or wrong for goodness sakes, but to take their input and make a rational response plan.  instead, we have panicked and created unnecessary costs for all of us.  not sure why other than we have lost our collective common sense.

[Read the Footnotes]

I started posting in the this thread to help friends prepare their portfolios and their families. The writing is on the wall now for those who care to read. Best of luck to everyone.

 

Read the Footnotes has left the chat.

[ERICOPOLY]

I hope everyone by now has noticed the resemblance between modeling in the finance world (for example structured finance) and the modeling being done by epidemiologists today in our world.  we have epidemiologists with models and assumptions, telling the country what we should be doing in response to a novel virus.  resembles to me a bad trade in the finance world.  cant we fire the epidemiologists like we can some wayward financial analyst?

 

Not sure I understand this. A month ago, no one was dead in Italy. Now 3000+ plus are dead with an additional 400-500 coming in daily despite the fact the entire country has been shut down for 9 days.

 

Similar numbers in the US would be 15,000 dead in 2 weeks time with a full shutdown - but we haven't done that yet. LA just announced it. Nowhere else has and we have over 100k confirmed cases w/o testing.

 

This is already on course to be way worse than the 30k annually from the flu even w/ the shutdown which hasn't been implemented yet. I'm not trying to fear monger - just extrapolating the data that's available

 

real simple. if you build a model and it tells you to do something stupid but you do it anyhow because you trust the model and have no common sense, then you do something stupid.

Please share your model with us.

 

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

 

cherzeca is correct:

 

"A contentious exchange during the March 11 House Homeland Security Committee hearing on the coronavirus response revealed this reality. During the hearing, acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli explained he had advised the president to ban travel from China even though “the academic model suggested not to do that.” Cuccinelli further stressed that “the president was well aware” that the existing models recommended against a China travel ban but that Trump nonetheless instituted the ban."

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/neither-biden-nor-sanders-would-have-saved-american-lives-with-travel-bans-like-trump-did/

 

I don't think the travel ban saved any lives.  Look at where we're at. 

[cubsfan]

 

cherzeca is correct:

 

"A contentious exchange during the March 11 House Homeland Security Committee hearing on the coronavirus response revealed this reality. During the hearing, acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli explained he had advised the president to ban travel from China even though “the academic model suggested not to do that.” Cuccinelli further stressed that “the president was well aware” that the existing models recommended against a China travel ban but that Trump nonetheless instituted the ban."

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/neither-biden-nor-sanders-would-have-saved-american-lives-with-travel-bans-like-trump-did/

 

President Trump was the first world leader to ban flights from China and he was roundly condemned as a xenophobe

and a racist. 

 

[coc]

I don't think the travel ban saved any lives.  Look at where we're at.

 

No. This is absurd. Absence of evidence =/= evidence of absence. Where would we be at if dozens or hundreds of more cases were seeded elsewhere? This complacency AIDS the spread of the virus. China-style lockdown stopped it in its tracks.

[cubsfan]

 

I don't think the travel ban saved any lives.  Look at where we're at.

 

Given the Communist party covered up the issue and did not declare an emergency until a couple of days before.

Thank China for letting 10,000 /day or whatever fly into the USA during the coverup, before the Trump ban.

 

 

[cubsfan]

I started posting in the this thread to help friends prepare their portfolios and their families. The writing is on the wall now for those who care to read. Best of luck to everyone.

 

Read the Footnotes has left the chat.

 

And I applaud you for this - this has been an extremely worthwhile thread with some great minds.

Demonstrates the difficulty of solving this issue.

[ERICOPOLY]

I don't think the travel ban saved any lives.  Look at where we're at.

 

No. This is absurd. Absence of evidence =/= evidence of absence. Where would we be at if dozens or hundreds of more cases were seeded elsewhere? This complacency AIDS the spread of the virus. China-style lockdown stopped it in its tracks.

 

It has so NOT been stopped in its tracks.  The President required an intervention to bang it into his numbskull brain that this isn't a conspiracy of left wing media to undermine his presidency.

[ERICOPOLY]

Two weeks ago, Trump was still saying that it's okay to go to work sick.  Locked down, LMAO.

 

California's governor has ordered a lockdown, and the first to do so.

[ERICOPOLY]

Here is some China-style leadership from Trump:

 

Trump Administration Asks States to Keep Quiet About Jobless Figures

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-ask-states-to-keep-quiet-about-jobless-figures-11584676698?mod=hp_lead_pos3&mod=article_inline

 

[Kaegi2011]

 

I don't think the travel ban saved any lives.  Look at where we're at.

 

Given the Communist party covered up the issue and did not declare an emergency until a couple of days before.

Thank China for letting 10,000 /day or whatever fly into the USA during the coverup, before the Trump ban.

 

All three are facts:

 

1) China delayed the recognition of the new virus and tried to play it down.  This lead to virus spreading very quickly.

 

2) Trumps travel "ban" from China likely slowed the spread, but remember the "ban" did not extend to Americans, and many flights still entered the US originating from China. 

 

3) Trump did not take the virus seriously, leading to where we are now.  Many people, including those on this very thread, have laid out the case for why the delayed reaction has been catastrophic. 

 

The above really isn't in dispute, so you can take two positions:

 

1) Eric's statement is wrong.  The travel "ban" slowed down the spread of the virus from China and saved lives perhaps earlier, but that the administration also had more time to react, but did not, and we are where we are, or

2) Eric's statement is right.  The "ban" slowed down the spread of the virus from China, which perhaps gave the administration some confidence that it could be contained, only to realize and pivot too late to stop the ultimate spread. 

 

I think Eric's point is that at the end, given how we've handled the situation, the US will not have less people die as a result of the travel "ban."

[LongHaul]

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

Given the response above, that may be a safe assumption, but I would welcome anyone who can prove epidemiologists wrong as well as the most credible participants in this thread by sharing with own complex model and a cost benefit analysis. The person with the best model wins, and so far the entire world's experts on the subject seem to agree that the benefits merit the costs.

 

are the elderly and immunosupressed getting the complete preventitive/mitigation attention they deserve?  of course not, because we are wasting scarce resources on all of us who dont need it...and cratering the economy to boot.

 

the point is not to prove epidemiologists right or wrong for goodness sakes, but to take their input and make a rational response plan.  instead, we have panicked and created unnecessary costs for all of us.  not sure why other than we have lost our collective common sense.

 

Cherzeca -  I think Covid 19 is worse than the flu.  There are still a lot of young people who are ending up in the hospitals (lower percentages likely).  Point well taken that much higher risk for the elderly with comorbidities but don't assume this is just the flu for the young.  Many need to go to the hospital for treatment. 

 

Personally I think none of us want anything to do with this in any way, shape or form.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/