Coronavirus

[Guest cherzeca]

Two weeks ago, Trump was still saying that it's okay to go to work sick.  Locked down, LMAO.

 

California's governor has ordered a lockdown, and the first to do so.

 

if we had proper mitigation of the elderly and immunosuppressed, of course it would be okay for all of us to work.

 

look the govt knows where all of the elderly are and can find out where all of the immunosuppressed are in short order.  might as well use all of the govt's big data and surveillance for good rather than evil.  we could have gotten a boon to the economy rather than a shut down if we hired thousands of people to attend specially to the affected population.  we have met the enemy, and the enemy is us.

[ERICOPOLY]

I think Eric's point is that at the end, given how we've handled the situation, the US will not have less people die as a result of the travel "ban."

 

Exactly.  Fewer cases entered the country, but that mattered not at all with Trump "so what" attitude about the cases already in the country that were doubling every four days.

 

He closed the front door of the barn after a few horses left the stable, and he let those horses compound and multiply into a US herd of horses.  And Chinese were still traveling to other countries, and people from those countries were still traveling to the US, and as such he effectively left the side doors and the rear door of the barn wide open.

[LC]

So here's a question - when does it stop?

 

And, when does society emerge from the "shelter in place" policies?

 

Let's say come end of April, May the virus retreats. Do we still sit inside all day? I mean, look at the uncoordinated response and lag-time that government took to enforce the start of quarantines. Will we see the same lag time when removing quarantines?

 

If so it could be July, August before thing return "to normal". Most people simply do not have the resources to last that long without work.

[Spekulatius]

Economic impacts - This moves with breakneck speed:

 

Brother in law got laid of in CA. He worked (in accounting)  in a hotel in SF, which went from full occupancy to almost zero.

 

A friend from my town rents apartments to lower income people in our area. He is already seeing defaults on rent payments. Many work in restaurants etc. He will work with renters and probably needs to forgive a few month of rent (he thinks).

[EliG]

Timeline of Trump's statements about the outbreak. How is this different from the coverup in China?

 

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

Given the response above, that may be a safe assumption, but I would welcome anyone who can prove epidemiologists wrong as well as the most credible participants in this thread by sharing with own complex model and a cost benefit analysis. The person with the best model wins, and so far the entire world's experts on the subject seem to agree that the benefits merit the costs.

 

are the elderly and immunosupressed getting the complete preventitive/mitigation attention they deserve?  of course not, because we are wasting scarce resources on all of us who dont need it...and cratering the economy to boot.

 

the point is not to prove epidemiologists right or wrong for goodness sakes, but to take their input and make a rational response plan.  instead, we have panicked and created unnecessary costs for all of us.  not sure why other than we have lost our collective common sense.

 

Cherzeca -  I think Covid 19 is worse than the flu.  There are still a lot of young people who are ending up in the hospitals (lower percentages likely).  Point well taken that much higher risk for the elderly with comorbidities but don't assume this is just the flu for the young.  Many need to go to the hospital for treatment. 

 

Personally I think none of us want anything to do with this in any way, shape or form.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

 

the only real difference between the "flu" and covid-19 is the novel aspect.  with the flu you can take a vaccine shot, which is predictive of what the next flu epidemic will bring, and you have prior antibodies that may also be protective.  and if that doesnt work, you get sick and very likely will recover.  with covid-19, there is an additional risk that you will get sick as the vaccine shot you just took is not going to help, but based upon my reading, many people, especially young, have antibodies from prior colds etc (coronavirus based) that are effective...hence never get sick.

 

we could go one of two ways:  shut down the economy every flu season because 10,000 to 50,000 die of the flu (pneumonia mostly) and this will save lives, or not shut down the economy and take massive preventive/mitigation measures on a focused basis. 

 

but it looks like we will do neither.  we are idiots, on a collective basis...though some are as well on an individual basis too.  not naming names.

[ERICOPOLY]

Timeline of Trump's statements about the outbreak. How is this different from the coverup in China?

 

 

Two possibilities I see off the bat:

 

1.  I give him 10 pinocchio's for his cover-his-own-ass statement about knowing it all along

2.  He kept the secret to himself and encouraged Americans to go to work sick so that it would rapidly sweep through the country and we'd be out the other side of it before November.

[mcliu]

Timeline of Trump's statements about the outbreak. How is this different from the coverup in China?

 

To be fair, it's not like any other Western country did a better job.

Here in Canada, they've been much slower to act despite having a SARS outbreak 15 years ago.

And Europe.. well just look at the #s.

[Guest Schwab711]

You have no idea what you are talking about, cherzeca

Given the response above, that may be a safe assumption, but I would welcome anyone who can prove epidemiologists wrong as well as the most credible participants in this thread by sharing with own complex model and a cost benefit analysis. The person with the best model wins, and so far the entire world's experts on the subject seem to agree that the benefits merit the costs.

 

are the elderly and immunosupressed getting the complete preventitive/mitigation attention they deserve?  of course not, because we are wasting scarce resources on all of us who dont need it...and cratering the economy to boot.

 

the point is not to prove epidemiologists right or wrong for goodness sakes, but to take their input and make a rational response plan.  instead, we have panicked and created unnecessary costs for all of us.  not sure why other than we have lost our collective common sense.

 

Cherzeca -  I think Covid 19 is worse than the flu.  There are still a lot of young people who are ending up in the hospitals (lower percentages likely).  Point well taken that much higher risk for the elderly with comorbidities but don't assume this is just the flu for the young.  Many need to go to the hospital for treatment. 

 

Personally I think none of us want anything to do with this in any way, shape or form.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

 

the only real difference between the "flu" and covid-19 is the novel aspect.  with the flu you can take a vaccine shot, which is predictive of what the next flu epidemic will bring, and you have prior antibodies that may also be protective.  and if that doesnt work, you get sick and very likely will recover.  with covid-19, there is an additional risk that you will get sick as the vaccine shot you just took is not going to help, but based upon my reading, many people, especially young, have antibodies from prior colds etc (coronavirus based) that are effective...hence never get sick.

 

we could go one of two ways:  shut down the economy every flu season because 10,000 to 50,000 die of the flu (pneumonia mostly) and this will save lives, or not shut down the economy and take massive preventive/mitigation measures on a focused basis. 

 

but it looks like we will do neither.  we are idiots, on a collective basis...though some are as well on an individual basis too.  not naming names.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

 

Again, you have no idea what you are talking about

 

 

Shutting down is a regional/state decision. During 1918, most businesses saw 30%-50% declines as the pandemic hit their region. There were mass bankruptcies. We are a more service-oriented and global economy now. The whole world was shutting down already. A global recession was already guaranteed. That's why I keep saying you have no idea what you are talking about. The shut downs were an easy choice because the economy was already going to decline precipitously, even if kept open. The marginal costs are far lower than you are assuming. This was all very predictable.

 

Great, Trump shut down Chinese air travel. Very much support it. It's a drop in the bucket and his lies (which led to wasting a month because too many were skeptical to the obvious) did far more damage than any single travel ban could offset.

[ERICOPOLY]

I'd love to put Trump in front of Chris Wallace:

 

Wallace:  "Why did you tell Americans to go to work sick, and then the following week tell them that you always knew it was a pandemic?"

 

[SharperDingaan]

So here's a question - when does it stop?

 

And, when does society emerge from the "shelter in place" policies?

 

Let's say come end of April, May the virus retreats. Do we still sit inside all day? I mean, look at the uncoordinated response and lag-time that government took to enforce the start of quarantines. Will we see the same lag time when removing quarantines?

 

If so it could be July, August before thing return "to normal". Most people simply do not have the resources to last that long without work.

 

Wuhan essentially went from early January through to early March. Crash and burn, but done in 2 months.

 

Canada is talking 3-4 months. Essentially early March through to early June. Slower, but more manageable.

Add 2-3 months to hire up and get the N/A-China supply chains flowing again - we're 'done' early September.

You can still get Covid-19, but odds are there will be a ventilator for you. Mortality risk does not go away.

 

Until then, it's swing-trade time. Buy the 1,000 point drop, resell on the bounce, holding periods < 1 week.

It's only 'buy and hold' if you don't get the bounce ... so only buy/sell quality, and the more mania the better.

Keep taking gains off the table, pay off all your debt, or just sit in cash.

 

Heresy, or gambling to many. but so be it. We have no problem with ruthlessly exploiting Mr Markets daily gyrations.

We'd far rather, just give 10% of the growing cash heap to the people who really need it. 

 

Different strokes

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Viking]

Economic impacts - This moves with breakneck speed:

 

Brother in law got laid of in CA. He worked (in accounting)  in a hotel in SF, which went from full occupancy to almost zero.

 

A friend from my town rents apartments to lower income people in our area. He is already seeing defaults on rent payments. Many work in restaurants etc. He will work with renters and probably needs to forgive a few month of rent (he thinks).

 

All the initial economic estimates for China were way too optimistic; virus caused much larger economic contraction than expected. And the re-start has also been slower to materialize.

 

The challenge in the West is we are taking a very different approach to managing the virus than China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Our approach is the blunt ‘flatten the curve’ (social distancing followed by lock down) but without all the other measures implemented in the asian countries. I am starting to think that our blunt strategy is going to need to be in place for longer (2-3 months).

 

Recession is coming. If this lasts months then likely a severe recession. If it stretches into 12-18 months then what is worse than a severe recession?

[minten]

Recession is coming. If this lasts months then likely a severe recession. If it stretches into 12-18 months then what is worse than a severe recession?

 

But does anyone on this board seriously think any Western society is able to remain in lockdown for more than a month before the entire support base under such measures will quickly fall away? No sports, no entertainment, no parties, nothing to look forward to... and people growing bored and getting immune to the corona news really fast.

I get how in theory it could take many months to kill the virus, and how in theory it's a good exercise to think how disastrous this would be to the economy, but this isn't a theoretical society, but a real one that consists of actual people.

 

With mortality rates that low even before mass testing will take it down much lower, people will revolt. In a month we should have better treatment, much better testing etc,  but even if we don't and the virus is even bigger than it is now, I'm 100% convinced life will resume for the young, as you won't be able to hold them down anymore. And we'll just live with the virus until a vaccine pops up.

[ERICOPOLY]

This source claims that 52% of Italy's populace either still smokes (33%) or stopped smoking (19%).

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/866789/number-of-adult-smokers-in-italy/

 

I saw a headline claiming that men in Italy are dying at twice the rate of women from Covid-19.  What I cannot find is whether they smoke at twice the rate too.  I can't find a breakdown of male-vs-female smokers in Italy.

[Viking]

Recession is coming. If this lasts months then likely a severe recession. If it stretches into 12-18 months then what is worse than a severe recession?

 

But does anyone on this board seriously think any Western society is able to remain in lockdown for more than a month before the entire support base under such measures will quickly fall away? No sports, no entertainment, no parties, nothing to look forward to... and people growing bored and getting immune to the corona news really fast.

I get how in theory it could take many months to kill the virus, and how in theory it's a good exercise to think how disastrous this would be to the economy, but this isn't a theoretical society, but a real one that consists of actual people.

 

With mortality rates that low even before mass testing will take it down much lower, people will revolt. In a month we should have better treatment, much better testing etc,  but even if we don't and the virus is even bigger than it is now, I'm 100% convinced life will resume for the young, as you won't be able to hold them down anymore. And we'll just live with the virus until a vaccine pops up.

 

Our response is to 'flatten the curve'. The result of this blunt approach is it takes longer to get through the crisis. How much longer? No one knows :-) People will do what they have to do.

 

People have consistently been grossly underestimating the virus for 8 weeks. My guess is this is still the case on March 20.

[Castanza]

This source claims that 52% of Italy's populace either still smokes (33%) or stopped smoking (19%).

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/866789/number-of-adult-smokers-in-italy/

 

I saw a headline claiming that men in Italy are dying at twice the rate of women from Covid-19.  What I cannot find is whether they smoke at twice the rate too.  I can't find a breakdown of male-vs-female smokers in Italy.

 

It's worth noting that Japan has one of if not the oldest population yet have seen pretty good numbers without extreme measures.

 

I'd say the odds are high it's somewhat correlated to smoking. Doesn't the Middle East have really high smoking rates as well?

[thefatbaboon]

This source claims that 52% of Italy's populace either still smokes (33%) or stopped smoking (19%).

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/866789/number-of-adult-smokers-in-italy/

 

I saw a headline claiming that men in Italy are dying at twice the rate of women from Covid-19.  What I cannot find is whether they smoke at twice the rate too.  I can't find a breakdown of male-vs-female smokers in Italy.

 

It's worth noting that Japan has one of if not the oldest population yet have seen pretty good numbers without extreme measures.

 

I'd say the odds are high it's somewhat correlated to smoking. Doesn't the Middle East have really high smoking rates as well?

 

Smoking rate is high in Japan, especially men, between 25% and 30% of the male population.

[clutch]

Japenese people in general, even in normal circumstances, practice high standards of hygiene (e.g., wearing masks) and minimize contact between each other. I'd say that's the primary reason why a breakout hasn't happened in Japan.

[EliG]

WHO smoking data, 2016

 

http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.sdg.3-a-data-ctry?lang=en

 

Italy

 

Males: 27.8%

Females: 19.8%

 

Japan

 

Males: 33.7%

Females: 11.2%

 

US

 

Males: 24.6%

Females: 19.1%

 

Canada

 

Males: 16.6%

Females: 12.0%

 

[Castanza]

This source claims that 52% of Italy's populace either still smokes (33%) or stopped smoking (19%).

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/866789/number-of-adult-smokers-in-italy/

 

I saw a headline claiming that men in Italy are dying at twice the rate of women from Covid-19.  What I cannot find is whether they smoke at twice the rate too.  I can't find a breakdown of male-vs-female smokers in Italy.

 

It's worth noting that Japan has one of if not the oldest population yet have seen pretty good numbers without extreme measures.

 

I'd say the odds are high it's somewhat correlated to smoking. Doesn't the Middle East have really high smoking rates as well?

 

Smoking rate is high in Japan, especially men, between 25% and 30% of the male population.

 

Weird...the more you know, the less you know.

[cubsfan]

Say what you like boys - but this China virus raises important issues about the merits of globalization in general

and the wisdom about outsourcing key industries like drugs, medical equipment, tech, etc, etc. to a dangerous and dishonest nation like China. 

Remember, Russia has always been the enemy Not Trump's fixation on China?  Wrong boys.

 

We don't need to bring back those jobs and focus to the US, like the President as fought for against his detractors.

No reason - maybe now?

 

Trump has been absolutely ridiculed and skewered for taking on China for 3 years - remember?

Let's ignore China's behavior as a serial trade cheater, stealer of technology, patent violator and currency distortion.

Remember how dangerous Trump has been with tariffs and trade wars and reckless negotiations to get China back in line?

 

And what a fool he has been to voice the opinion that it's NOT China's destiny to surpass the USA in GDP - that our

country and citizens were worth fighting for against a Chinese juggernaut.

 

Trump exposed China once and for all - imprisonment of Muslims, organ harvesting of political prisoners, spying on citizens, violent suppression of Hong Kong, etc.   

BUT YEA, let's outsource all our key industries to them because we can trust them!

 

If there is ONE THING this virus episode demonstrates - we can't trust China for the good of our future.

Let's outsource our dependence to a nation that would NOT tell us or the world the truth for 3 months about a disaster in the making.

 

Trump has been right all along - nitpick at his handling of this all you want gentlemen - and think of how Joe Biden would have handled this disaster.

I'm sure he would have found a lot of ways for his son to profit from "our friends" the Chinese Communist government.

 

The economic toll from this event is going to be immense - and Trump will be proven right, even though this may cost him re-election.

 

The President's job is to lead us through this, give us confidence we will survive this and rebuild, and assure us he is doing everything that can be done to get us through this crisis.

 

His naysayers will continue to try use this event to destroy him - and play armchair quarterback with the rear view mirror -

in spite of the fact he's right about American self-sufficiency and a re-calibration of our relationship with China.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

This source claims that 52% of Italy's populace either still smokes (33%) or stopped smoking (19%).

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/866789/number-of-adult-smokers-in-italy/

 

I saw a headline claiming that men in Italy are dying at twice the rate of women from Covid-19.  What I cannot find is whether they smoke at twice the rate too.  I can't find a breakdown of male-vs-female smokers in Italy.

 

It's worth noting that Japan has one of if not the oldest population yet have seen pretty good numbers without extreme measures.

 

I'd say the odds are high it's somewhat correlated to smoking. Doesn't the Middle East have really high smoking rates as well?

 

I think the odds are related to testing frequency. There is suspicion that virus was undetected in Italy for weeks , so the number of undetected cases is high increasing the mortality rate because mortality rate is number of  death/detected cases.

Germany’s morbidity rate is low right now 0.3%, but is sure to rise. Germany did way more testing than Italy at the same stage of progression, but is also behind the curve so the time lag between infection and the morbidity is almost guaranteeing that the mortality rates will go up.

[ERICOPOLY]

The Diamond Princess remains the population where everyone was tested.  We can confirm that it was disproportionately elderly, and 1% died.

[no_free_lunch]

The Diamond Princess remains the population where everyone was tested.  We can confirm that it was disproportionately elderly, and 1% died.

 

1% of infected died.  I believe only around 0.25% of the passengers died as only 1 in 4 was infected.

[mcliu]

There’s no way China style lockdown can or should happen here. If you look at archived Chinese social media, they were literally locking people inside their houses. Doors to entire apartments were welded shut. Infected people rounded up and forced into quarantine hotels. Public apology/denunciation for not wearing face masks.

 

Japan, Korea have shown that there’s ways to contain virus without taking away all your rights. You don’t need to lock everyone up, people just need to pay attention and avoid close contact. Face mask and glove wearing should be encouraged.

 

Also, in many ways, we are dealt a better hand in the Canada/US, many of us live in houses in much lower density areas. We also drive our own cars instead of mass transit. There’s also good delivery and internet infrastructure and many can work from home.