Coronavirus

[ERICOPOLY]

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

 

If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC.

 

You have to take into account time it takes for the virus to run its course, though. Daily exponential growth means the vast majority of infections are early stage and haven’t had time to create complications.

 

Do we also upwardly adjust the 180,000 number to add back the number of people who were once infected but no longer are?

 

Really we need to look at this data at a cohort level, which as far as I know does not exist publicly.  Without it we need to look at places like China where it's mostly run its course - otherwise we'll be comparing apples and oranges.

 

The Chinese data tells us that 3.4% of the cases they identified died.  But it doesn't tell us the % of infected that were identified.

 

The Diamond Princess is the best population that I've heard of yet.  1% of infected died -- relatively old people go on cruises.

 

So if we were to take the number of people who died in NYC yesterday, and if we can estimate when they contracted it, then perhaps we could estimate the number of infected people in NYC at that time.  If we then estimate the rate of spread, we can take a stab at how many are infected in NYC today.

[Guest longinvestor]

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/A-coronavirus-AMA

 

Q&A at Reddit

 

[Kaegi2011]

Mount Sinai in NYC - 150 positive and admitted, 20 in ICU beds.  Expect dramatic uptick in the next seven days.  Med school is now closed so healthcare workers can live in the dorms.  New beds with tents set up in all the open areas.  Total capacity right now of 1200 beds and 100 ventilators.  They expect another 500 ventilators from canada soon and will turn 1/2 of the hospital to ICU. 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Mount Sinai in NYC - 150 positive and admitted, 20 in ICU beds.  Expect dramatic uptick in the next seven days.  Med school is now closed so healthcare workers can live in the dorms.  New beds with tents set up in all the open areas.  Total capacity right now of 1200 beds and 100 ventilators.  They expect another 500 ventilators from canada soon and will turn 1/2 of the hospital to ICU.

 

This ain't "just like the Flu season", folks.

[samwise]

Agree with posters who say that a death is a death, regardless of cause. Instead of measuring deaths from COVID19, the relevant statistic is excess deaths. That is how mortality from 1918 influenza is commonly measured, since there were no tests for influenza at that time.

 

Given how sporadic COVID testing has been implemented globally, this will probably be the measure-of-choice in 2020 as well, now almost 100 years later. Look how far we've come...  :-\

 

Yes, unfortunately.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

 

[Kaegi2011]

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

 

If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC.

 

You have to take into account time it takes for the virus to run its course, though. Daily exponential growth means the vast majority of infections are early stage and haven’t had time to create complications.

 

Do we also upwardly adjust the 180,000 number to add back the number of people who were once infected but no longer are?

 

Really we need to look at this data at a cohort level, which as far as I know does not exist publicly.  Without it we need to look at places like China where it's mostly run its course - otherwise we'll be comparing apples and oranges.

 

The Chinese data tells us that 3.4% of the cases they identified died.  But it doesn't tell us the % of infected that were identified.

 

The Diamond Princess is the best population that I've heard of yet.  1% of infected died -- relatively old people go on cruises.

 

So if we were to take the number of people who died in NYC yesterday, and if we can estimate when they contracted it, then perhaps we could estimate the number of infected people in NYC at that time.  If we then estimate the rate of spread, we can take a stab at how many are infected in NYC today.

 

I haven't looked into Diamond Princess in depth so I just tried to find some info.  While I agree that it may be the best possible data set so far, it also seems potentially incomplete: 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-infections-keep-mounting-after-cruise-ship-fiasco-japan

 

Given the number of people who were infected but did not test so at the time of disembarkment, I'm just not sure how reliable the data is (again, may be the best we have). 

 

Either way, still a high level of imprecision it seems. 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

 

If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC.

 

You have to take into account time it takes for the virus to run its course, though. Daily exponential growth means the vast majority of infections are early stage and haven’t had time to create complications.

 

Do we also upwardly adjust the 180,000 number to add back the number of people who were once infected but no longer are?

 

Really we need to look at this data at a cohort level, which as far as I know does not exist publicly.  Without it we need to look at places like China where it's mostly run its course - otherwise we'll be comparing apples and oranges.

 

The Chinese data tells us that 3.4% of the cases they identified died.  But it doesn't tell us the % of infected that were identified.

 

The Diamond Princess is the best population that I've heard of yet.  1% of infected died -- relatively old people go on cruises.

 

So if we were to take the number of people who died in NYC yesterday, and if we can estimate when they contracted it, then perhaps we could estimate the number of infected people in NYC at that time.  If we then estimate the rate of spread, we can take a stab at how many are infected in NYC today.

 

I haven't looked into Diamond Princess in depth so I just tried to find some info.  While I agree that it may be the best possible data set so far, it also seems potentially incomplete: 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-infections-keep-mounting-after-cruise-ship-fiasco-japan

 

Given the number of people who were infected but did not test so at the time of disembarkment, I'm just not sure how reliable the data is (again, may be the best we have). 

 

Either way, still a high level of imprecision it seems.

 

What's notably missing in this "analysis" is that the Diamond Princess passengers had the benefit of ample hospital, ICU, and ventilator capacity to treat themselves in Japan and elsewhere. There are patients in many places who will not get the same level of care due to healthcare overload.

 

Furthermore, there may be more deaths to come. Of note, a passenger on the Diamond Princess just died TODAY:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200321/p2g/00m/0na/050000c

 

That's now 8 deaths.

[no_free_lunch]

Good read on the situation in Japan.  They had the infection get started back in early February and are only at 900 cases. This without a major policy response.  Japan has an older population and higher smoking rates than say Italy too so it takes out those arguments.  Not to downplay what is happening elsewhere but if does suggest that common sense and basic containment may be enough.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/21/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-still-coronavirus-outlier/#.XnZH06FRUlQ

[Dalal.Holdings]

Good read on the situation in Japan.  They had the infection get started back in early February and are only at 900 cases. This without a major policy response.  Japan has an older population and higher smoking rates than say Italy too so it takes out those arguments.  Not to downplay what is happening elsewhere but if does suggest that common sense and basic containment may be enough.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/21/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-still-coronavirus-outlier/#.XnZH06FRUlQ

 

So much for the "there's nothing that can be done" argument. Oh wait, those people will now use the "but they are Asian! So they are better prepared/used to dealing with this/more compliant with containment/etc, so there is no hope for us non-Asians!". And destroys the "let it spread and achieve herd immunity" nuts too.

 

The “critical” two-to-three week containment period proclaimed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of February has now come to an end and some schools are set to reopen. If you head out to places like Tokyo’s Shinjuku Station or Shibuya Crossing, you’ll see them packed.

 

We’re now enjoying a three-day weekend, and it is the start of hanami (cherry blossoms viewing) season, which is typically marked by large picnics and parties beneath the trees. Already Shinjuku Gyoen, one of the capital’s largest parks, is busy with people taking pictures and swarming close between the nascent blossoms.

 

Sounds like an ounce of prevention was worth pounds and pounds of cure.

[no_free_lunch]

 

So much for the "there's nothing that can be done" argument. Oh wait, those people will now use the "but they are Asian! So they are better prepared/used to dealing with this/more compliant with containment/etc, so there is no hope for us non-Asians!". And destroys the "let it spread and achieve herd immunity" nuts too.

 

The “critical” two-to-three week containment period proclaimed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of February has now come to an end and some schools are set to reopen. If you head out to places like Tokyo’s Shinjuku Station or Shibuya Crossing, you’ll see them packed.

 

We’re now enjoying a three-day weekend, and it is the start of hanami (cherry blossoms viewing) season, which is typically marked by large picnics and parties beneath the trees. Already Shinjuku Gyoen, one of the capital’s largest parks, is busy with people taking pictures and swarming close between the nascent blossoms.

 

Sounds like an ounce of prevention was worth pounds and pounds of cure.

 

Sure but this is an investing board not a political board.  From an investing perspective, I see a disconnect between what the market is expecting from the virus and what will actually happen.  If I am right and we shift to a slew of preventative measures that allow the economy to start up in say 6-8 weeks, the markets will have to rally.  Right now you have indexes that are down 40% (VB, VO) and where you are looking at 60%+ upside.  Isn't this the opportunity of a decade?

 

[Spekulatius]

Good read on the situation in Japan.  They had the infection get started back in early February and are only at 900 cases. This without a major policy response.  Japan has an older population and higher smoking rates than say Italy too so it takes out those arguments.  Not to downplay what is happening elsewhere but if does suggest that common sense and basic containment may be enough.

 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/03/21/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-still-coronavirus-outlier/#.XnZH06FRUlQ

 

So much for the "there's nothing that can be done" argument. Oh wait, those people will now use the "but they are Asian! So they are better prepared/used to dealing with this/more compliant with containment/etc, so there is no hope for us non-Asians!". And destroys the "let it spread and achieve herd immunity" nuts too.

 

The “critical” two-to-three week containment period proclaimed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of February has now come to an end and some schools are set to reopen. If you head out to places like Tokyo’s Shinjuku Station or Shibuya Crossing, you’ll see them packed.

 

We’re now enjoying a three-day weekend, and it is the start of hanami (cherry blossoms viewing) season, which is typically marked by large picnics and parties beneath the trees. Already Shinjuku Gyoen, one of the capital’s largest parks, is busy with people taking pictures and swarming close between the nascent blossoms.

 

Sounds like an ounce of prevention was worth pounds and pounds of cure.

 

2 Trillion $ of cure. But $2B cut from the CDC budget in 2019 to do exactly what? Not that the CDC would have prevented this, but still. Some people just like to drive without insurance. 99.9% of the time, nothing bad happens and they are right.

[treasurehunt]

Mount Sinai in NYC - 150 positive and admitted, 20 in ICU beds.  Expect dramatic uptick in the next seven days.  Med school is now closed so healthcare workers can live in the dorms.  New beds with tents set up in all the open areas.  Total capacity right now of 1200 beds and 100 ventilators.  They expect another 500 ventilators from canada soon and will turn 1/2 of the hospital to ICU.

 

Got this text early this morning from a friend of mine. He has an MD in internal medicine and is a hospitalist at Sharp Chula Vista (south San Diego).

 

"Things are beyond stressful.  This is unprecedented.

 

I learned when we started seeing suspected COVID patients mid last week that we have been basically testing no one.  Testing capacity is so incredibly low even this week that everyone showing up with covid symptoms are just sent home without testing and told to self-isolate.  Testing is ONLY being done for those sick enough to be hospitalized - and the labs soon got so overwhelmed that even these tests took many, many days to result.  We were getting results yesterday for tests ordered last weekend for hospitalized patients.

 

The federal government response couldn’t have been worse.  Here we are two months after they were made aware of this threat, and only scrambling to ramp up production of protective equipment and covid testing now.  I really am appalled and saddened.

 

Indeed, we are flying blind with regard to numbers.  The reported numbers in no way reflect how widespread the disease is.... we have been testing hardly no one.  And in the rare instance we do test asymptomatic people (NBA players!) quite a few test positive with no to minimal symptoms.  And unfortunately these asymptomatic are indeed the people who are spreading it around to the unfortunate who will end up clogging the hospitals and dying from the disease.

 

These are unprecedented times!"

[LC]

The federal government response couldn’t have been worse.  Here we are two months after they were made aware of this threat, and only scrambling to ramp up production of protective equipment and covid testing now.  I really am appalled and saddened.

Face mask production I can understand. Take a look into how melt blown and spun plastic fabrics are created to achieve 0.3 micron filtration meshes. Very difficult. These guys produce the machinery:

https://www.reicofil.com/en/pages/products

And lead times are 12 months.

 

Testing is unforgivable. The US has a web of facilities which can be used to testing, there is no excuse except for lack of federal resources to provide national guidance. That's what happens when you slash federal budgets, though. 

[ERICOPOLY]

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

 

If he is right that 50 people have it for every 1 we know about, then 22 people have died out of 180,000 infected in NYC.

 

You have to take into account time it takes for the virus to run its course, though. Daily exponential growth means the vast majority of infections are early stage and haven’t had time to create complications.

 

Do we also upwardly adjust the 180,000 number to add back the number of people who were once infected but no longer are?

 

Really we need to look at this data at a cohort level, which as far as I know does not exist publicly.  Without it we need to look at places like China where it's mostly run its course - otherwise we'll be comparing apples and oranges.

 

The Chinese data tells us that 3.4% of the cases they identified died.  But it doesn't tell us the % of infected that were identified.

 

The Diamond Princess is the best population that I've heard of yet.  1% of infected died -- relatively old people go on cruises.

 

So if we were to take the number of people who died in NYC yesterday, and if we can estimate when they contracted it, then perhaps we could estimate the number of infected people in NYC at that time.  If we then estimate the rate of spread, we can take a stab at how many are infected in NYC today.

 

I haven't looked into Diamond Princess in depth so I just tried to find some info.  While I agree that it may be the best possible data set so far, it also seems potentially incomplete: 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/coronavirus-infections-keep-mounting-after-cruise-ship-fiasco-japan

 

Given the number of people who were infected but did not test so at the time of disembarkment, I'm just not sure how reliable the data is (again, may be the best we have). 

 

Either way, still a high level of imprecision it seems.

 

What's notably missing in this "analysis" is that the Diamond Princess passengers had the benefit of ample hospital, ICU, and ventilator capacity to treat themselves in Japan and elsewhere. There are patients in many places who will not get the same level of care due to healthcare overload.

 

Furthermore, there may be more deaths to come. Of note, a passenger on the Diamond Princess just died TODAY:

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200321/p2g/00m/0na/050000c

 

That's now 8 deaths.

 

I can't find the data, but surely somebody knows how many of the ~700 infected were put on ventilators.

[mcliu]

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having domestic manufacturing capacity so we don’t have the whole world trying to source stuff from China.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

So much for the "there's nothing that can be done" argument. Oh wait, those people will now use the "but they are Asian! So they are better prepared/used to dealing with this/more compliant with containment/etc, so there is no hope for us non-Asians!". And destroys the "let it spread and achieve herd immunity" nuts too.

 

The “critical” two-to-three week containment period proclaimed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of February has now come to an end and some schools are set to reopen. If you head out to places like Tokyo’s Shinjuku Station or Shibuya Crossing, you’ll see them packed.

 

We’re now enjoying a three-day weekend, and it is the start of hanami (cherry blossoms viewing) season, which is typically marked by large picnics and parties beneath the trees. Already Shinjuku Gyoen, one of the capital’s largest parks, is busy with people taking pictures and swarming close between the nascent blossoms.

 

Sounds like an ounce of prevention was worth pounds and pounds of cure.

 

Sure but this is an investing board not a political board.  From an investing perspective, I see a disconnect between what the market is expecting from the virus and what will actually happen.  If I am right and we shift to a slew of preventative measures that allow the economy to start up in say 6-8 weeks, the markets will have to rally.  Right now you have indexes that are down 40% (VB, VO) and where you are looking at 60%+ upside.  Isn't this the opportunity of a decade?[\b]

 

No, I don't think it is. If this were being compared to 2015 or 2018 drawdowns, sure. 30% drawdown where everything returns to normal in a few months would be an excellent opportunity to buy.

 

But this isn't 2015 or 2018. Reasons below:

 

1) Unlike 2015, where the oil bust and subsequent tightening of credit resulted in all sorts of coordinated CB action to prevent it from getting worse, CBs were ALREADY easing before this event occurred.

 

2) Why were the CBs easing? Because the global economy was already stalling BEFORE any of this happened. PMIs were generally in contraction most everywhere and inverted yield curves were signaling recession BEFORE covid-19 was even heard of. Default rates on credit cards were already rising and industrial sector was already in a recession for months.

 

3) On top of the short-term economic impacts if massive business closures, unemployment, and death - this doesn't all just magically disappear when restrictions are lifted. People won't flock to be on planes or cruises the very next day. Businesses may realize work from home arrangements are more efficient and shrink they corporate foot print. elevated spreads will prevent companies from rolling debt and there will be bankruptcies with jobs that don't come back. It will take 2+ years for things to get back to normal if this all stops in the next month or two. Which brings me to my next point:

 

4)  Unless if we get a vaccine by next fall, there will likely be a second wave of this in 2020 as we probably won't reach herd-immunity first time around with the prevention measures we've put in place. Hopefully round 2 is slower and less painful though.

 

5) Also, we're not just dealing with the viral uncertainty, but also an oil bust and a reduction of credit in the system. After the last oil bust, less than half the high paying shale jobs came back. After this one, it will be even fewer even if COVID-19 was never heard of.

 

6) currently estimates out of Bridewater are for 4 trillion in corporate losses. Current stimulus is expected at 2 trillion. That's a massive gap between the two and also assumes the stimulus is targeted effectively. What does a 20 trillion economy look like when you blow a 2+ trillion hole in it all at once? The impacts are way more than $2 trillion. Just look at 2008 - IIRC, losses were estimated to be ~$1.8 trillion when all was said and done.

 

7) on top of all of this, we were at the god awful heights of 21x trailing earnings at the start of this thing. A 30% drawdown just takes you back to average assuming earnings aren't sustainably impacted - and my friends, were going below average with a sustainable impact to earnings for a global pandemic, global oil bust, and global recession all at the same time. 

 

8) what has been shocking for most people, myself included, is the speed in which the market has reacted. We had a draw-down in 1/3 of the time as most other drawdowns of similar size. What if that's not signaling opportunity, but rather signaling we're only 1/3 of the way through this?  Maybe the most reasonable comparison isn't 2015/2018, but 1929 and 2008 with 50-60% decline being base case because we weren't @ 21x earnings in 2008.

 

I've been nibbling because I'd previously set 2300 as my spot to begin accumulating again to get back to a 65/35 mix from 50/50 and I want to remain loyal to a systematic approach. That being said, I'm cheating some by slowing it WAY down and accumulating HY bond allocation first before moving any serious money into equities. Goal is to still be 100% equities by the end of this, but I don't wanna blow the load before it's over. I want some certainty before putting the last 25% or so to work.

 

I still have a large hedge on the equity side and fully expect us to see lows of 1700-2000 before this is over. Maybe even lower if policy makers bungle the response or I am STILL underestimating this thing.

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having domestic manufacturing capacity so we don’t have the whole world trying to source stuff from China.

 

The WH was warned last year that the country isn't ready for a pandemic. 

 

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having the right leadership in place.

[mcliu]

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having domestic manufacturing capacity so we don’t have the whole world trying to source stuff from China.

 

The WH was warned last year that the country isn't ready for a pandemic. 

 

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having the right leadership in place.

 

So true. At least DT moved pretty quick with the travel bans. The Liberal government here in Canada was too woke to even travel ban. Even a few weeks ago Trudeau was eating at Chinese restaurants in Scarborough for photo op and to encourage people to eat out.

 

Sad because we’ve experienced the SARS epidemic 15 year ago and still so ill-prepared. Hospitals here are asking for n95 mask donations now.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having domestic manufacturing capacity so we don’t have the whole world trying to source stuff from China.

 

The WH was warned last year that the country isn't ready for a pandemic. 

 

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having the right leadership in place.

 

The average person is not wired to understand these multiplicative, systemic risks for the simple fact that evolutionarily we never faced them. Humans were never interconnected enough before for such things to cause devastation. We understand basic threats well (another person coming after you with a rock).

 

It's the same issue with warnings about climate change--few take them as serious threats (we never impacted the climate or our environment on such a scale before). We are certainly lacking in leaders who employ preventative thinking and can do more than brute force tactics (travel bans, tariffs, tax cuts, tweets, etc).

 

The travel ban worked, but because everything else was botched, the end result was that it only DELAYED covid outbreak in USA. In the end, the lack of other measures means the travel ban was pointless--we would have been hit sooner vs later. What would have been smart was using the time bought by the travel ban to prep testing, isolate cases and regions as soon as they crop up, ramp up mask/PPE production, etc etc. Playing well in the first quarter of a football game and then committing unforced errors and losing in the other 3 quarters doesn't count for anything.

 

And of course, some Senators understood the threat in late January intelligence briefing and acted accordingly with their investments. They just didn't speak up because the guy in the White House would get upset.

 

Leadership capable of more nuanced tactics and precautionary thinking would be great, but whether the average voter understands the benefit of that remains to be seen in November.

[EliG]

Leadership capable of more nuanced tactics and precautionary thinking would be great, but whether the average voter understands the benefit of that remains to be seen in November.

 

I am sorry to disappoint you...

 

 

ABC/Ipsos: "In the new poll, 55% of Americans approve of the president's management of the crisis, compared to 43% who disapprove."

 

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Leadership capable of more nuanced tactics and precautionary thinking would be great, but whether the average voter understands the benefit of that remains to be seen in November.

 

I am sorry to disappoint you...

 

 

ABC/Ipsos: "In the new poll, 55% of Americans approve of the president's management of the crisis, compared to 43% who disapprove."

 

Yep, that's why I said it remains to be seen. Right now, for people outside of WA/NY, this whole virus thing seems overblown. It is likely that that may not be the case for long...

[Jurgis]

It is (hardly) surprising how myopic even intelligent and trained investors are when considering complex systems with multiple levels of effects.

 

1. Let's move manufacturing to US! - And let's pay increased prices for products. Let's NOT move manufacturing to lowest cost countries, cause consumers will be just fine with higher prices and will never reward cheaper sourcing of goods. And shareholders will cheer companies manufacturing in higher cost locations and having lower margins. NOT.

 

2. Let's prepare for next pandemic and have ... 10x ICUs ... 10x ventilators ... cause nobody cares about the healthcare costs. The extra capacity costs will be gladly absorbed by taxpayers or shareholders. NOT?

 

3. Let's not source drugs from China ... cause shareholders and taxpayers would revolt on using substandard source with no quality control ... they would gladly absorb the costs of manufacturing in high quality facility in US. Yeah! Great! All pharma shareholders let's unite and vote for that!

 

 

[cubsfan]

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having domestic manufacturing capacity so we don’t have the whole world trying to source stuff from China.

 

Yup, the USA is #1 producer of energy and food in the world. Totally self-sufficient.

 

Should be the same for drugs, medical & tech. President has been correct about China all along, no doubt.

 

The open borders and free trade crowd will never admit it. Nor will all the fools in the media that have marveled

at China's economic miracle at the expense of political suppression, organ harvesting, and interment camps.

 

No problem trusting China for our critical antibiotics, heart medicines and cancer drugs - once this is over right?

 

Fortunately, if the US economy gets destroyed we will have plenty of cheap energy and food, since we don't depend on China for this too.

I mean, why ruin China's reputation at the expense of saying DT has been correct all along?

[Spekulatius]

Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having domestic manufacturing capacity so we don’t have the whole world trying to source stuff from China.

 

Yup, the USA is #1 producer of energy and food in the world. Totally self-sufficient.

 

Should be the same for drugs, medical & tech. President has been correct about China all along, no doubt.

 

The open borders and free trade crowd will never admit it. Nor will all the fools in the media that have marveled

at China's economic miracle at the expense of political suppression, organ harvesting, and interment camps.

 

No problem trusting China for our critical antibiotics, heart medicines and cancer drugs - once this is over right?

 

Fortunately, if the US economy gets destroyed we will have plenty of cheap energy and food, since we don't depend on China for this too.

I mean, why ruin China's reputation at the expense of saying DT has been correct all along?

 

Forest Trump started the trade war with a salvo Canada targeting  Canadian steel imports  for national security reasons. Canada is a country that supported the US in every war for the last 29” years starting with WW1. It is a time tested tactic in any war to shoot at the allies first.

[KCLarkin]

Maybe the most reasonable comparison isn't 2015/2018, but 1929 and 2008 with 50-60% decline being base case because we weren't @ 21x earnings in 2008.

 

Just remember that the March 2009 bottom was very brief. The "buyable" bottom was -45%. If you were a couple weeks early or a couple weeks late, you'd be buying at 40-45% discount. Everybody counts the rally from March 9, but almost nobody bought then. I was buying in April 2009 at much higher prices.

 

This seems most like 1929, but remember the FDIC, employment insurance, monetary policy, stimulus make this scenario unlikely.