Coronavirus

[samwise]

Eli, it shows that the concepts trump is pushing are not so far fetched. I agree it will take longer than he says, he's trying to soothe investors to some extent.  I think Canada risks being too conservative and damaging the economy. Remember that there is a true cost in lives when you don't have the funds to pay for your health care.

Isn’t that healthcare risk unique to the USA among most developed nations. Most OECD have socialized healthcare. So yes the USA may have to calculate its costs differently than other countries.

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?mod=hp_opin_pos_2

 

"In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate."

 

"The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism."

 

"This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible."

 

"If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns."

 

 

[UK]

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

 

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

 

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said."

 

[Liberty]

Ackman; https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p-releases-letter-to-investors/

[Dalal.Holdings]

Ackman; https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p-releases-letter-to-investors/

 

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical?

[Uccmal]

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

 

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

 

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said."

 

This is the obvious course of action.  With H1N1 my parents who were late 60s didn't need the vaccine, while my family did, except the baby (at the time).  I think they came to this conclusion via deduction (no one over 60 was getting the symptoms).  This time there is no such protected group, that are obviously standing out.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/white-house-senators-strike-deal-on-massive-stimulus-package

 

Any company receiving a government loan would be subject to a ban on stock buybacks through the term of the loan plus one additional year. They also would have to limit executive bonuses and take steps to protect workers. The Treasury Department would have to disclose the terms of loans or other aid to companies and a new Treasury inspector general would oversee the lending program.

 

Notably, Democrats won language that would bar any business owned by Trump or his family from getting loans from Treasury. Businesses owned by members of Congress, heads of executive departments and Vice President Mike Pence also would be blocked.

 

Sounds like to me that it was well worth it for the "opposition party" to have pushed back and revised this.

[ukvalueinvestment]

While I hate Donald Trump with all my heart and want nothing else than for him to be destitute, is this fair?  Surely Trump should be treated the same way as any other hotel owner. 

 

I know that he and his dishonest family would have found a way to game the bail out to their advantage so maybe this is the only way?

[Dalal.Holdings]

While I hate Donald Trump with all my heart and want nothing else than for him to be destitute, is this fair?  Surely Trump should be treated the same way as any other hotel owner. 

 

I know that he and his dishonest family would have found a way to game the bail out to their advantage so maybe this is the only way?

 

As far as I can tell, hotels are not included in the measure. Airlines, yes. I do not see anything for Hotels. Even if they were, Trump is POTUS and better to err on the side of protecting against corruption. He refused to put assets away in a blind trust even.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study

 

Hydroxychloroquine, a medicine for malaria that President Donald Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus, was no more effective than conventional care, a small study found.

 

The study involved just 30 patients. Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus.

 

The results of the study weren’t statistically significant.

 

FYI.

[Orchard]

While I hate Donald Trump with all my heart and want nothing else than for him to be destitute, is this fair?  Surely Trump should be treated the same way as any other hotel owner. 

 

I know that he and his dishonest family would have found a way to game the bail out to their advantage so maybe this is the only way?

This is why any president should be barred from owning private businesses. Who will ever know that his initial ignoring of the virus wasn't because he had an incentive to keep travel going?

 

Imagine he had reacted faster if he didn't own hotels?

[Liberty]

Leadership in time of historical crisis: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242777450662244352?s=20

[minten]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study

 

Hydroxychloroquine, a medicine for malaria that President Donald Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus, was no more effective than conventional care, a small study found.

 

The study involved just 30 patients. Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus.

 

The results of the study weren’t statistically significant.

 

FYI.

 

Hydroxycholoroquine did not (statistically significant) outperform the no treatment group in the aforementioned French study either, only in combination with Azithromycin (which the Chinese study didn't investigate).

[Liberty]

Taleb: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw

 

letting a segment of the population die for the sake of the economy is a false dichotomy – aside from the moral repugnance of the idea.

 

As we said, when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.

 

The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative threat.

[SharperDingaan]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/white-house-senators-strike-deal-on-massive-stimulus-package

 

Any company receiving a government loan would be subject to a ban on stock buybacks through the term of the loan plus one additional year. They also would have to limit executive bonuses and take steps to protect workers. The Treasury Department would have to disclose the terms of loans or other aid to companies and a new Treasury inspector general would oversee the lending program.

 

Notably, Democrats won language that would bar any business owned by Trump or his family from getting loans from Treasury. Businesses owned by members of Congress, heads of executive departments and Vice President Mike Pence also would be blocked.

 

Sounds like to me that it was well worth it for the "opposition party" to have pushed back and revised this.

 

The money is just funded through a 3rd party, that relends to the Trump organization. Smart language would have required that the loans be convertible into majority ownership of the underlying credit, against covenant based triggers. Miss a payment, the assets go to the state, and the remaining loans re-rate enough to permit a repo  State owns both the assets and the debt. Elegant.

 

SD

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/hydroxychloroquine-no-better-than-regular-covid-19-care-in-study

 

Hydroxychloroquine, a medicine for malaria that President Donald Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus, was no more effective than conventional care, a small study found.

 

The study involved just 30 patients. Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus.

 

The results of the study weren’t statistically significant.

 

FYI.

 

Hydroxycholoroquine did not (statistically significant) outperform the no treatment group in the aforementioned French study either, only in combination with Azithromycin (which the Chinese study didn't investigate).

 

I've already adjusted my priors down on whether these drugs will work (from already pretty low values). This might help break it down for u:

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/24/coronavirus-drugs-study-gupta-pkg-ac360-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus/

[ERICOPOLY]

Leadership in time of historical crisis: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242777450662244352?s=20

 

He sarcastically said "Gee, that's too bad" when he was first told that Romney was being tested and may have the virus.

 

Romney's wife has MS and would almost certainly have been killed by it.

[ERICOPOLY]

While I hate Donald Trump with all my heart and want nothing else than for him to be destitute, is this fair?  Surely Trump should be treated the same way as any other hotel owner. 

 

I know that he and his dishonest family would have found a way to game the bail out to their advantage so maybe this is the only way?

This is why any president should be barred from owning private businesses. Who will ever know that his initial ignoring of the virus wasn't because he had an incentive to keep travel going?

 

Imagine he had reacted faster if he didn't own hotels?

 

Hard to say for sure.

 

He wouldn't let a cruise ship dock here solely because he was afraid it would increase the count of Americans sick and this is an election year.  Obviously he tried to sweep things under the rug.  His mere reelection prospects have been an incentive against him doing much more than "there is nothing to see here, please disperse".  Roll the tape of him arguing that we only have 5 cases.

[ERICOPOLY]

 

I dont recall anyone questioning the Chinese travel ban.  Anyone. 

 

You're kidding right - did you watch the democratic presidential debates? - Joe Biden AND Bernie Sanders said those bans

to China and Europe were xenophobic, if not racist - and they WOULD not have imposed them. Go back and listen.

 

https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/03/14/biden-insists-on-opposing-coronavirus-travel-ban-despite-the-advice-of-experts/

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/neither-biden-nor-sanders-would-have-saved-american-lives-with-travel-bans-like-trump-did/

 

https://nationalfile.com/flashback-biden-opposed-trumps-chinese-coronavirus-travel-ban-as-xenophobia/

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/criticisms-of-trumps-coronavirus-response-are-sickening-devine/

 

2 points on this:

 

1.  None of the articles you included have Biden or Sanders criticizing the travel ban.  The very, very politicized articles twist words to imply that is the case.  They called Trump xenophobic but didn't say anything about the travel ban being wrong or inappropriate.

 

2.  Just the publications you have used to try and prove the point....well kinda proves all the points being made here.  You are so caught up in Trump-fever and reinforcing views that you have lost all capability to think logically for yourself. At least the people here can admit fault in democrats and hold independent views of their own.  Not the case on your end.

 

Yeah sure - tell me about it - and go listen to the debates - it's all on tape. In the end, believe what you want to.

 

Republicans have frequently pointed to former vice president Joe Biden’s comments on the day the restrictions were announced, in which he referenced Trump’s “record of hysteria and xenophobia.” But Biden wasn’t directly talking about the China restrictions, as FactCheck.org has reported.

 

And in fact, Biden was speaking around the same time that Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar first announced the restrictions. When Biden’s event in Iowa began just after 4 p.m. Eastern time, Azar made the announcement at a briefing that started at 3:42 p.m. It’s not even clear Biden knew it had been announced.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/02/trumps-airing-grievances-coronavirus-is-overcooked/

 

 

The timeline of that day is also important when it comes to Trump’s claim that this was a bold step. The travel restrictions actually came after the three major carriers who have service to China — American Airlines, Delta and United — had already announced earlier in the day that they would halt that service. As USA Today noted at the time, the move by the airlines “all but rendered White House action moot.” The White House had floated potential travel restrictions earlier in the week, but this was something the airlines jumped on first.

 

Uh, Biden is right here on tape discussing the ban...in the video - January 31st,

 

Then crap like this..

 

On Thursday, idiot Biden tweeted:

 

“A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it. This disease could impact every nation and any person on the planet — and we need a plan to combat it.”

 

Biden was absolutely spot on to blow the whistle on Trump's complacency.  Trump was 100% incorrect to believe that his travel ban would protect us (it hasn't) and he did not have the plan that Biden was demanding.

[mcliu]

Just wanted to focus back on the virus and investing.

Any thoughts on worst case, base case, best case?

Thoughts on market levels that you would buy at and why?

[Liberty]

Is there reason to be concerned about a second wave of infections in China?

 

Absolutely, and China is concerned. As we traveled around China, one of the most striking things that I found, especially in contrast to the West, as I spoke to governors, mayors, and their cases were plummeting—in some of the places they were down to single digit cases already—as I spoke to them and I said, “So what are you doing now?” They said, “We’re building beds, we’re buying ventilators, we’re preparing.” They said, “We do not expect this virus to disappear, but we do expect to be able to run our society, run our economy, run our health system. We cannot end up in this situation again.”

 

https://time.com/5805368/will-coronavirus-go-away-world-health-organization/

[Spekulatius]

 

I dont recall anyone questioning the Chinese travel ban.  Anyone. 

 

You're kidding right - did you watch the democratic presidential debates? - Joe Biden AND Bernie Sanders said those bans

to China and Europe were xenophobic, if not racist - and they WOULD not have imposed them. Go back and listen.

 

https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/03/14/biden-insists-on-opposing-coronavirus-travel-ban-despite-the-advice-of-experts/

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/neither-biden-nor-sanders-would-have-saved-american-lives-with-travel-bans-like-trump-did/

 

https://nationalfile.com/flashback-biden-opposed-trumps-chinese-coronavirus-travel-ban-as-xenophobia/

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/criticisms-of-trumps-coronavirus-response-are-sickening-devine/

 

2 points on this:

 

1.  None of the articles you included have Biden or Sanders criticizing the travel ban.  The very, very politicized articles twist words to imply that is the case.  They called Trump xenophobic but didn't say anything about the travel ban being wrong or inappropriate.

 

2.  Just the publications you have used to try and prove the point....well kinda proves all the points being made here.  You are so caught up in Trump-fever and reinforcing views that you have lost all capability to think logically for yourself. At least the people here can admit fault in democrats and hold independent views of their own.  Not the case on your end.

 

Yeah sure - tell me about it - and go listen to the debates - it's all on tape. In the end, believe what you want to.

 

I recall this debate too. It is correct that the travel ban was criticized by several democratic candidates at that time. The travel ban was a correct decision and bought us about 1 week and perhaps 2 weeks of time in term of epidemic progression. Unfortunately this valuable time was not used, but the value is that the epidemic exploded in Italy first, which really forced the hand to actually do something because we would see the same thing.

 

Credit where credit is due.

[Spekulatius]

Ackman; https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p-releases-letter-to-investors/

 

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical?

 

He brought talking his book to a new level.

[cubsfan]

 

I recall this debate too. It is correct that the travel ban was criticized by several democratic candidates at that time. The travel ban was a correct decision and bought us about 1 week and perhaps 2 weeks of time in term of epidemic progression. Unfortunately this valuable time was not used, but the value is that the epidemic exploded in Italy first, which really forced the hand to actually do something because we would see the same thing.

 

Credit where credit is due.

 

 

Spek - thank you for your intellectual honesty. Nice to see.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Ackman; https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-capital-management-l-p-releases-letter-to-investors/

 

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical?

 

He brought talking his book to a new level.

 

Lol...makes you respect people like WEB and Munger that much more because they don't engage in such despicable antics and still outperform these scumbags.