FUN - Cedar Fair L.P.

[5xEBITDA]

I am waiting for the debt to be 40-50 cents before buying this.

 

That would be a deal. Even if  FUN goes bankrupt, the underlying asset is sound and it will recover, even though it may take time.

 

Yeah, amusement parks are hot assets at the right price.

[bergman104]

I have been doing some thinking about this in regards to FUN and some other companies.

 

This corona virus is quite a bit different than 2008 and the GFC.

 

Are some people/companies with too much leverage going to get hit and take some losses?  No doubt.

 

Are some companies that have WAY too much leverage and is has poorly structured debt going to go BK and restructure?  No doubt, certainly.

 

Are some weak companies going to go under?  For sure.

 

On the other hand in NW Ohio and SE Michigan, Cedar Point is well known, well liked, and almost an institution.

 

I think there is going to be TREMENDOUS pressure on lenders to work with creditors.  Everybody is going to have to pay their bills/due, but I think the government will pressure banks to work with creditors (within reason).

 

If things get to the point where a lot of companies have their shareholders getting wiped out in BK, things are going to get very bad in this country.

 

There are still a LOT of people who have not recovered financially from the GFC.  If we go through something like the GFC, or even worse, there is going to be a LOT of social disruption.  Pension funds will go bust, or have severe stress.  Lots of towns & cities will be in "super duper bankruptcy".  A lot of places have SEVERE pension problems going into this crisis.  If markets go down 50%+ with lots of BK, then they will be done.

 

You will also have problems with legacy pension problems at companies such as GE and others.  You will have problems with banks & insurance companies.

 

Then you've got the real estate problem.  In some areas of Detroit, prices for residential are even higher than it was in 08. 

 

Then you will have unemployment.  If unemployment climbs significantly, what about student loan debt?  and on and on and on. 

 

There are going to be a lot of 2nd and 3rd order effects.

 

I think the government will do EVERYTHING in it's power to provide liquidity and prevent mass BK.

 

Why do you think shareholders will be bailed out?  If the gov't provides loans, will that make them profitable? 

 

Who knows how long this storm will take to weather, and how many businesses will be affected. 

 

I don't think theme parks are high up on the strategically important employer list.

 

I'm wondering how willing a bank will be to work with them as well. They do employ a lot of younger people that are part time. Exactly the type of people who are losing their jobs right now in the service industry. No idea if that will play a part in all of this or not.

 

I also think it is really tough to model, because who knows how many people will go this summer. I can see people being emotional on both ends, either being afraid to gather in groups or excited to finally enjoy these types of things again.

[DTEJD1997]

Hey all:

 

For those who are not from the Midwest, Cedar Point is a big deal.

 

Obviously they aren't TBTF, but they would certainly get more preferential treatment than "Joe's discount plumbing & interweb supplies".

 

Cedar Point also employs THOUSANDS of people and has lots of vendors that work with them.  They advertise on TV & Radio, they buy food & supplies.  They have some pull in the community.

 

Obviously buying the debt, if obtained for a discount, would be safer than the common.  I just think that if a company is viable, a lot of steps will be taken to keep them out of BK.

[Orchard]

Hey all:

 

For those who are not from the Midwest, Cedar Point is a big deal.

 

Obviously they aren't TBTF, but they would certainly get more preferential treatment than "Joe's discount plumbing & interweb supplies".

 

Cedar Point also employs THOUSANDS of people and has lots of vendors that work with them.  They advertise on TV & Radio, they buy food & supplies.  They have some pull in the community.

 

Obviously buying the debt, if obtained for a discount, would be safer than the common.  I just think that if a company is viable, a lot of steps will be taken to keep them out of BK.

 

Oh that's cute. I'm sure the pre-bankruptcy equity owners of Six Flags and Charter agree with you.

[Spekulatius]

Hey all:

 

For those who are not from the Midwest, Cedar Point is a big deal.

 

Obviously they aren't TBTF, but they would certainly get more preferential treatment than "Joe's discount plumbing & interweb supplies".

 

Cedar Point also employs THOUSANDS of people and has lots of vendors that work with them.  They advertise on TV & Radio, they buy food & supplies.  They have some pull in the community.

 

Obviously buying the debt, if obtained for a discount, would be safer than the common.  I just think that if a company is viable, a lot of steps will be taken to keep them out of BK.

 

Bankruptcy or not, the layoffs will happen anyways, with the park being empty.

[alwaysdrawing]

Bankruptcy or not, the layoffs will happen anyways, with the park being empty.

 

Right, so why does anyone think the Dems will bail out theme park shareholders vs. helping the people laid off?

 

It's nonsensical.  We have wayyyyy bigger fish to fry than Cedar Point.

[mbreject]

Whoa. 2020 Knotts season pass holders will get 2021 free.

https://www.knotts.com/park-update

 

And Cedar point members will get "added-value benefits" when they reopen.

https://www.cedarpoint.com/park-update

[Guest roark33]

https://www.wtol.com/article/entertainment/places/cedar-point/cedar-point-2020-season-passes-good-through-2021/95-3b91eb83-d1dc-414b-bc79-8380b8d8d742

 

 

Cedar Point, basically buy this year, get next year free, assuming there is a this year, of course.

 

[Guest roark33]

https://ir.cedarfair.com/news/news-details/2020/Cedar-Fair-Outlines-Measures-Taken-in-Response-to-COVID-19/default.aspx