bizaro86 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Have you looked at the Chinese and Italian stock markets to see how much of a dive they have taken since November when nobody had heard of COVAD-19? Italy's market is down 25% over the past month which covers their history, and China's is down by far less since early December. Unless I am getting it very wrong due to exchange rates or something. While that is a good point, as presumably the go forward economic effects are similar, I think the starting valuation matters as well. The US markets were considerably more euphoric than the Italian ones, so a larger fall doesn't necessarily seem disproportionate. I thought of that, but then which economy is more tolerant of shocks? I thought the US had a stronger economy and that should count for something. Probably the US economy, but that doesn't mean it should have a smaller percentage fall. Say Italy was discounting 9% returns and earnings falls 10% and the discount rate goes to 10%. That's a 19% decline. If the US earnings stay flat (outperform by 10%) and discount rate goes from 2.5% to 3.5% (so the same earnings yield compression due to risk fears on better earnings) the loss would be 29%. Those numbers are all guesses, but the general trend would hold. Probably earnings will actually drop, at least in the short term. If US discount rates stay very low future earnings matter more than they do elsewhere, which would be an offsetting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 US economy is better, but SP500 valuation is stretched. In 2016, earnings fell from $110 to $90 share as oil prices collapsed. Discount rate was around 5%. Today, earnings are $140 per share, assume it falls to $120, even at a 4% discount (adjusting for 2% decline in risk-free rate), you're only at 3,000 points. If earnings fall a bit further to $110, and discount rate increases to 5%, it's 2,200 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The risk free rate is not 5 or 4 percent. It's under 1 percent. How does this affect the calculation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcliu Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The risk free rate is not 5 or 4 percent. It's under 1 percent. How does this affect the calculation? Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 I'm surprised people aren't panicking more. I have a small investment in a mutual fund and received this today. "We have been impressed with the confidence that our fellow shareholders have had in us, as demonstrated by very limited redemptions. We share your confidence and have recently invested more of the firm’s balance sheet into the funds." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The risk free rate is not 5 or 4 percent. It's under 1 percent. How does this affect the calculation? Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. The same way negative interest rates in Europe and Japan affect equity valuation. Zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The risk free rate is not 5 or 4 percent. It's under 1 percent. How does this affect the calculation? Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. The same way negative interest rates in Europe and Japan affect equity valuation. Zilch. Gundlach seems to think that if the US goes negative, this will turn very, very ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 The risk free rate is not 5 or 4 percent. It's under 1 percent. How does this affect the calculation? Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. The same way negative interest rates in Europe and Japan affect equity valuation. Zilch. If rates go negative and valuations do not move, private equity will have a bonanza in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 The risk free rate is not 5 or 4 percent. It's under 1 percent. How does this affect the calculation? Risk-free + risk premium. In 2016, it was around 5% at a 2% risk-free rate. Maybe it's dropped to 4% or 3% as risk-free has gone down. Or maybe higher as risk premium goes up. You can run a sensitivity. The same way negative interest rates in Europe and Japan affect equity valuation. Zilch. If rates go negative and valuations do not move, private equity will have a bonanza in the US. I think they will be licking their wounds for years, after we get a downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Futures down 4.X% to about 2600. Personally thinking of selling call spreads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 TLDR: The USA is NOT Japan. Decades ago when Japan had its crisis, it had a chance to adjust and deal with the situation, but they didn't. They chose to hide it under the rug and that's where they are now. Even if the USA goes to 0% it would be different, it can actually get out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Another Ramsey "not worried." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzS34qsE0VU New investor, not panicking. "Market artificially down based on panic." Airlines, cruise lines, hotels are "undervalued." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Another Ramsey "not worried." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzS34qsE0VU New investor, not panicking. "Market artificially down based on panic." Airlines, cruise lines, hotels are "undervalued." Why would he be worried? Isn't he worth 9 figures :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Another Ramsey "not worried." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzS34qsE0VU New investor, not panicking. "Market artificially down based on panic." Airlines, cruise lines, hotels are "undervalued." Why would he be worried? Isn't he worth 9 figures :) haha true...but that was in reference to the caller. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 We are still only around 15% down. More downside to go. At least another 10%. S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 We are still only around 15% down. More downside to go. At least another 10%. S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. The problem with all the cash guys is they sit around dancing and proclaiming how right they've been for sitting on a pile on 1.2% yielding USD for the past decade but remain too negative to know an opportunity when they see one. Yes, congrats you're 80% in cash when the market falls 25%. As you have been since 2012. And now the market gets back to 2016 levels, and you're still thinking it needs to get back to 2010 in order to invest again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Let's hope Buffett is not in the wait pile when market tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
widenthemoat Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 We are still only around 15% down. More downside to go. At least another 10%. S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. The problem with all the cash guys is they sit around dancing and proclaiming how right they've been for sitting on a pile on 1.2% yielding USD for the past decade but remain too negative to know an opportunity when they see one. Yes, congrats you're 80% in cash when the market falls 25%. As you have been since 2012. And now the market gets back to 2016 levels, and you're still thinking it needs to get back to 2010 in order to invest again... I think there is some validity to your statement, but I've personally been in cash for a long time (it's been painful, trust me) and that is not because I anticipated a massive market correction. I simply was not able to find companies that, in my view, were selling at a substantial discount to a reasonable estimate of future owner's earnings. With the recent selloff I've finally been able to purchase a couple of companies that I've been following pretty closely over the years, which I believe are "punch card" type investments (fingers crossed.) The majority of companies on my watchlist, however, are now probably fairly valued. With all of that said, I really have no idea where this market goes next - all I know is that I've got a list of companies I really like, and prices I want to buy them at based on some reasonable estimates. If they hit those levels, I back up the truck. I find this way of thinking takes a lot of stress out of the game, as you really don't have to worry about timing at all. The purchases I've made over the past few weeks could continue to collapse in market price, but I really don't mind given I plan on holding them for 5+ years and the cash they can distribute to me over those years is quite silly compared to the price I paid. Best of luck to everyone - wild times in the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thowed Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 So it looks like there's going to be a big rebound today. I mean, that's not unusual after such a crazy day as yesterday. On the other hand, it feels like it's in anticipation of substantial government intervention. And it still feels like that the next few months are going to see a lot of economic problems in various industries, as long as people are 'self-isolating' and working from home. I've got cash ready, and have done a tiny bit of nibbling, but personally it feels like the economic hit hasn't been priced in fully yet. It feels like a number of people here have been nibbling, but felt like next week would provide better opportunities. But hey, timing is impossible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I agree. It is only making up about a day though and I have trouble picturing anyone feeling better about this for at least another 1-2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 We are still only around 15% down. More downside to go. At least another 10%. S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. The problem with all the cash guys is they sit around dancing and proclaiming how right they've been for sitting on a pile on 1.2% yielding USD for the past decade but remain too negative to know an opportunity when they see one. Yes, congrats you're 80% in cash when the market falls 25%. As you have been since 2012. And now the market gets back to 2016 levels, and you're still thinking it needs to get back to 2010 in order to invest again... I think there is some validity to your statement, but I've personally been in cash for a long time (it's been painful, trust me) and that is not because I anticipated a massive market correction. I simply was not able to find companies that, in my view, were selling at a substantial discount to a reasonable estimate of future owner's earnings. With the recent selloff I've finally been able to purchase a couple of companies that I've been following pretty closely over the years, which I believe are "punch card" type investments (fingers crossed.) The majority of companies on my watchlist, however, are now probably fairly valued. With all of that said, I really have no idea where this market goes next - all I know is that I've got a list of companies I really like, and prices I want to buy them at based on some reasonable estimates. If they hit those levels, I back up the truck. I find this way of thinking takes a lot of stress out of the game, as you really don't have to worry about timing at all. The purchases I've made over the past few weeks could continue to collapse in market price, but I really don't mind given I plan on holding them for 5+ years and the cash they can distribute to me over those years is quite silly compared to the price I paid. Best of luck to everyone - wild times in the market. Congrats, your attitude is exemplary of what an investor truly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 holy fuck, what a bounce back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 algo's going the other way now...crazy eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Up, down, up, down, up, ... I'm ready for the loop-the-loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 The last 30 or so minutes of each day have been bonkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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