thepupil Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 as an additional fun fact, AV Homes used to be called Avatar Holdings; they changed their name not long after the movie Avatar came out. Avatar was a nice little post GFC value trap where it traded at like 20-30 points of unlevered book and that was too high a price because it mostly owned marginal land in god forsaken parts of central florida and Arizona. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2012/02/15/468145/246013/en/Avatar-Holdings-Inc-Becomes-AV-Homes-Inc.html Here's a February 2010 VIC pitch @ $17 and change; I pitched it as a long in an interview with the one the only vampire squid and the guy didn't like it one bit; no second interview was rewarded, no Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies job for me. So if you all thought that me being a little early to a real estate recovery trade was a new thing, I've been doing this since college lol! with hopefully better assets than lots in Poinciana, Florida. https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/AVATAR_HOLDINGS_INC/0684703277 Thereafter went as low as $6 in 2011, and got taken out by Taylor Morrison 2018 for about $20. TPG bought in 2014 for $14 and change, not exactly a crazy good (or bad) investment on the surface, maybe they made a little more than it looks like because of the converts/prefs. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2013/06/19/555135/10036881/en/AV-Homes-Inc-Announces-135-Million-Equity-Investment-by-TPG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 I'd like to see his compensation structure. Giving a young, motivated fella the reigns is more appealing to me than some grey haired industry vet still living in the 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Is he by chance related to the Forest City Ratners? My first thought was who's nephew is this. But then if he is a Forest City Ratner and the best school they managed to get him in was Emory then I would stay the hell away from the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Is he by chance related to the Forest City Ratners? My first thought was who's nephew is this. But then if he is a Forest City Ratner and the best school they managed to get him in was Emory then I would stay the hell away from the stock. lol! ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 Yea NYC RE circles can be very incestuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Is he by chance related to the Forest City Ratners? My first thought was who's nephew is this. But then if he is a Forest City Ratner and the best school they managed to get him in was Emory then I would stay the hell away from the stock. You sir, are an absolute unit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 as an additional fun fact...I pitched it as a long in an interview with the one the only vampire squid and the guy didn't like it one bit; no second interview was rewarded, no Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies job for me. No wonder Buffett sold that trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Is he by chance related to the Forest City Ratners? My first thought was who's nephew is this. But then if he is a Forest City Ratner and the best school they managed to get him in was Emory then I would stay the hell away from the stock. Well, is this better or worse than JW May's bringing in a poker player as a director? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MVP444300 Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Empire State Building Slashes Carbon Emissions By 40% With Energy Saving Upgrades https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/31/empire-state-building-slashes-carbon-emissions-by-40-with-energy-saving-upgrades/ Over the past decade, the trust that owns the Empire State Building has invested more than $30 million to make it more energy efficient. Today, the improvements made over the past decade are saving $4 million in electricity every year and the project is expected to pay for itself twice over. The elevators in the building now have energy recovery systems. Think of them as regenerative braking devices that operate vertically instead of horizontally. Every light in the entire building is now an LED, including those that flash from its top at night to remind New Yorkers that brighter days are ahead despite the darkness on the land at present. Every window has been upgraded to the highest energy conservation standards. Automated window treatments adjust the amount of daylight that enters the rooms during the day to reduce heating and cooling needs and decrease the amount of electricity needed to illuminate the rooms. Heating devices have been modified to make them more efficient. Here is the much longer article from the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/climate-solutions/empire-state-building-emissions/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_climate-solutions-1110am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Full dividend announced. No cut here....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Full dividend announced. No cut here....yet. Was the dividend in doubt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Full dividend announced. No cut here....yet. Was the dividend in doubt? I dont think so, but as we've seen with a number of companies, there was/is always the risk that "preserving cash" becomes the "safe" option. Part of the reason I like this is because these guys have been notoriously cautious over the past several years with an emphasis on building a fortress like balance sheet and allocating capital in a highly disciplined manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbi Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 I've hacked together a spreadsheet to try and get a handle on how the market is pricing the portfolio. EV atm of around $3.4B. $2.2B for ESB + Obs (which is arguably low given its the ESB after all) leaves about $1.6B for the balance, spread out over 7.3M SF, so $220/SF. Deals for these kind of assets - ageism aside - seem to be occurring around the $600/SF mark, but as gregmal has said, everything is currently no bid. Still seems low though. Understand that ESB is the trophy asset, but am interested to see what the stub is currently worth if it were to be excluded. ESRT_-_Vals.xlsx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Short report (from reddit): https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LandB-NYC-Office-Facing-Existential-Hurricane-1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Short report (from reddit): https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LandB-NYC-Office-Facing-Existential-Hurricane-1.pdf Yup, thanks. This was shared already by user realassetsvalue on May 6 earlier in the thread. Jon Litt's Land & Buildings is short ESRT and put out a press release with their negative view on NYC office RE. I am still absorbing their view and what that should mean for NYC Office RE but given the discussion around ESRT, VNO, ALX and PGRE (full disclosure I own ALX and PGRE) I thought useful to bring the negative case to the forefront. https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LandB-NYC-Office-Facing-Existential-Hurricane-1.pdf Additional info that I think is useful is this CBRE piece - it doesn't draw any conclusions but has useful case studies of early 2000s and GFC Manhattan office rents on page 21, down ~25% and ~30% over 4 years and 3 years respectively. https://f.tlcollect.com/fr2/520/33500/VP_Covid_19_impact_on_Manhattan_Office_-_040120A.pdf Will this downturn have a similar or different impact on the Manhattan office market? Do the prices of NYC office REITs today compensate for this kind of downturn? This is what I am trying to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Will office buildings ever be the same? Empire State offers clues https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-empire-state-b/will-office-buildings-ever-be-the-same-empire-state-offers-clues-idUSKBN2401A1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Empire State building alone I think could fetch the current EV of ESRT- given the iconic address alone with the added attraction business attached.......its inflation protected bond like income stream would possibly warrant a 25x multiple. The rent roll on the Empire State building a 20x rate. The remaining assets sit at higher end of Class B Manhattan / Metro area RE........lets call them B+ with a descent environmental/sustainability footprint. The downside is protected here.........the risk appears in the management teams contrarian instinct to now lever up and do some deals. The ability to lever up against an asset like the ESB is tempting & easily done...........what bank/bond holder wouldn't mind taking delivery of an iconic asset if they had to and selling it to China or Qatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted June 29, 2020 Author Share Posted June 29, 2020 I do agree, but on the flip side, I think they've proven disciplined, certainly have a financial alignment, and I think given those two things, have earned the opportunity to "take a shot", especially during a time in which it may be wise to "start shooting". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Commercial mortgage delinquencies surged at record monthly rate in June https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/commercial-mortgage-delinquencies-surged-at-record-monthly-rate-in-june.html Delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities jumped by 213 basis points in June to 3.59% from 1.46%. It was the largest one-month spike since Fitch Ratings began tracking the metric nearly 16 years ago. The hotel and retail sectors are seeing the worst delinquencies, as the coronavirus has been especially hard on those industries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 This is where having low leverage and nearly 80% of SF unencumbered plays into their hands. They are definitely well positioned should the CMBS issues prompt further softness in the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 13, 2020 Author Share Posted July 13, 2020 Numbers continue to improve, Observatory expected to reopen 7/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 no position. I do have a view that you will see more "no central HQ office" businesses. anecdotally, I hear this from the young adults that I know, about the direction their companies are taking. I expect each business's office HQ to become more conference room availability for client meetings and less employee office space...secular shift. I see Empire State Building/chrysler building and the like to be on the forefront of this secular contraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 29, 2020 Author Share Posted July 29, 2020 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200729005828/en/Empire-State-Realty-Trust-Announces-Quarter-2020 Second Quarter and Recent Highlights Net loss attributable to the Company was $0.07 per fully diluted share. After a $0.03 per share reserve against tenant receivables and non-cash reduction in straight line rent balances, Core Funds From Operations (“Core FFO”) was $0.14 per fully diluted share. Same Store Property Cash NOI excluding lease termination fees was up 18.0% from the second quarter 2019 primarily driven by lower property operating expenses, partially offset by a reserve against tenant receivables. When COVID-related rent deferrals are excluded, Same Store Property Cash NOI increased 9.9% from the second quarter 2019. Strong liquidity position with $1.4 billion of total liquidity as of June 30, 2020, which consists of $873 million of cash plus an additional $550 million available under its revolving credit facility. The Company repurchased $52 million of its common stock shares at a weighted average price of $7.99 per share in the second quarter, and year-to-date through July 28, 2020, the Company repurchased $119 million of common stock at a weighted average share price of $8.67. For the total portfolio in the second quarter, we signed 19 new, renewal, and expansion leases, representing 113,431 rentable square feet at an average starting rental rate of $64.43 per rentable square foot. Collected 84% of second quarter 2020 total billings with 86% for office tenants and 75% for retail tenants. Through July 24, 2020, collected 90% of July total billings, with 93% for office tenants and 75% for retail tenants. The Empire State Building Observatory remained closed during the entire second quarter and reopened on July 20, 2020. Declared a dividend of $0.105 per share. Announced the appointment of Christina Chiu to EVP and CFO, Aaron D. Ratner to SVP and CIO, and the departure of John B. Kessler. On July 13, 2020, the Company announced the appointment of R. Paige Hood to its Board of Directors, effective August 1, 2020, and the departure of William H. Berkman, effective July 31, 2020. Reduced expected full year G&A by approximately 12% from the previously disclosed 2020 G&A run rate of $68 million to $60 million, excluding one-time severance charges. Reduced property operating expenses by $10 million in the second quarter 2020 from the prior year period and expect further to reduce expenses by $12 million in the second half of 2020. Reduced required capital expenditures planned for 2020. Reduced annual base salary for Anthony E. Malkin, the Company’s Chairman, President and CEO, and Thomas P. Durels, EVP Real Estate, by 33% and 25%, respectively, effective August 1 through the remainder of 2020. This is in addition to Mr. Malkin’s base salary reduction to $1.00 for the second quarter of 2020. Reduced 2021 NEO annual equity compensation by $3.9 million, comprised of a $2.7 million reduction for Mr. Malkin and $1.2 million reduction for Mr. Durels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 https://nypost.com/2020/07/30/nycs-bryant-park-hotel-is-being-converted-to-office-space/ You dont say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Armed with a modest checkbook but a big pulpit, Jonathan Litt is going after Big Office. Can he prevail? https://therealdeal.com/2020/08/19/the-littmus-test-veteran-activist-investor-on-his-office-shorting-strategy/?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=feature_posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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