villainx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 you forgot eternal regret. +1. Yea, agree on the above. Grossly expensive but in the sweet spot in an area I love the outlook of and rather than be another dork with a calculator griping about the euphoria, I'll take a small flyer here, ~$170, and if were get a 50% drawdown I'll play ball. Wouldn't be the first time. If it keeps ripping, I like that too. These are the types of companies you either have to buy at horrible valuations or come to terms with never owning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 2.6B unencumberedwith for 2% dilution is pretty good. Especially considering the digital bank licence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage/sea-acquires-indonesian-bank-to-gain-foothold-in-financial-tech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Beast mode today! https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage/sea-acquires-indonesian-bank-to-gain-foothold-in-financial-tech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Beast mode today! https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage/sea-acquires-indonesian-bank-to-gain-foothold-in-financial-tech +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Thought it would be prudent to add. I hold a considerable allocation towards SE and haven't sold a share. Although I saw some are trying to build a full position, and if I was them, I would not be inclined to build a large position at these prices with certain caveats. The key risk is that SE is literally purchasing revenues and the digital bank is going to most likely swallow more cash flow. Optically they are cash-flow negative, but cash-flow positive due to Free Fire and breaking-even of Shopee. They are heavily reliant on Free Fire to catch fire for eons to come to fund these investments. Multiple spinning plates and a lot of execution risk. With the digital bank - they may be back to being cash-flow negative and rely on share issuance. The reason why I haven't sold a share is that if SE goes down 50%, I'm still sitting on a 100%+ gain. Secondly, I always have more capital coming in and I'm young. That's the caveat - if SE goes down 50% - it's just a case for me to purchase more of the digital back-bone of South East Asia at a discounted rate. Nothing negative at the moment, but with every business that obsessive with the customer experience and long-term, things can go very badly in the short-term and translate to really bad drawdowns. This is a 10+ year investment for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Thought it would be prudent to add. I hold a considerable allocation towards SE and haven't sold a share. Although I saw some are trying to build a full position, and if I was them, I would not be inclined to build a large position at these prices with certain caveats. The key risk is that SE is literally purchasing revenues and the digital bank is going to most likely swallow more cash flow. Optically they are cash-flow negative, but cash-flow positive due to Free Fire and breaking-even of Shopee. They are heavily reliant on Free Fire to catch fire for eons to come to fund these investments. Multiple spinning plates and a lot of execution risk. With the digital bank - they may be back to being cash-flow negative and rely on share issuance. The reason why I haven't sold a share is that if SE goes down 50%, I'm still sitting on a 100%+ gain. Secondly, I always have more capital coming in and I'm young. That's the caveat - if SE goes down 50% - it's just a case for me to purchase more of the digital back-bone of South East Asia at a discounted rate. Nothing negative at the moment, but with every business that obsessive with the customer experience and long-term, things can go very badly in the short-term and translate to really bad drawdowns. This is a 10+ year investment for me. Interesting and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 My pleasure! ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Arg. Total regret selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Maybe it's the right time - you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pushing into Brazil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Market Cap: Feb 2020 - $25B Mar 2020 - $18B May 2020 - $25B June 2020 - $50B Now $140B. Jeez. In three quarters, the market cap grew by 3x. Did the business really grow 3x in nine months? Although from Mar onwards there were 10 instances of 10%+ drawdowns about half were more than 20% in some cases. At these prices and a 20% discount rate stock has to increase to 850B in market cap in 10 years for this to be justified. Anyone thinks that can happen with reasonable certainty? Here I am - touting that the stock has risks and increased by 15% from that post. Just unbelievable the amount of money is being made by the founders and Tencent. Pales with Elon's skyrocketing to the top, yet here we are almost at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Congrat by the way on this amazing pick. I am looking forward to Tokopedia and Grab when the IPO later this year. Both are south asian names, with a super-app approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Means a lot coming from you Xerxes. Me too! Can't wait to be fellow shareholders on those names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Cheers ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 People have been harping on Sea and asking what I thought. Nothing has changed. If treasury yields go higher - I'm game. I don't make investments based on economic output - much less the US Treasury, where it has little to no effect on the business. If I had a viable way of answering that where I'm 2/3 right - I would be a trillionaire. Since I'm reverting back to lurker, I'm going to be quiet. I want these stocks to stay cheap or get cheaper, so I don't have to spend time putting my cash elsewhere. Other than that - can the business be heavily impaired? Yes. It's relying on Free Fire, going into new markets at a neck-breaking pace, and one may wish they slowed down a bit, and the digital bank will be a feat. Can it be permanently impaired? Probably not. If I can get a solid 20%+ return over the long term, where I don't have to turn over the portfolio - that's the dream. I'm too lazy to look for new ideas every year. I don't really see an alternative. People say banks are great hedges for increasing yields, but last time I checked Banks are equities and are exposed to multiple compressions. With or without high-interest rates, e-commerce, games, digital payments are here to stay. Also by the way - Sea has a bank that can be valuable in the future. If it wasn't for those who are more selfless than me asking, I would've kept my mouth shut. But then again - I don't think it's particularly cheap on an absolute basis. Back to lurking and staying quiet :) Other than that - wish you all the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 Amazing how little changes in the course of a few weeks or months, right? Just kidding. I think often times people mistake volatility, or a stock moving around a lot...for fundamental developments. Always look forward to hearing your perspectives on some of these unique companies. Too many people focus exclusively on the income statement or balance sheet....but that stuff is boring to me because everyone has access to the same stuff. What separates the outperformers from the rest of the crowd is being able to see how everything fits together and forms a narrative(IE the intangible stuff that the "Excel only" crowd has trouble grappling with)...which will ultimately determine the multiple or valuation a consensus of investors are willing to pay. You seem to do a good job capturing that element of the investment thesis with these sort of companies. Keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 If it wasn't for contributors such as yourself - I wouldn't have contributed - so thank you! Hopefully, I'll have something to share in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Southeast Asian internet battle, Sea's rise sends rivals scrambling https://www.reuters.com/article/sea-southeast-asia-tech-idUSL4N2LJ01P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArminvanBuyout Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Stock has gone on a rip since the Jan lows (up ~65%) - curious if people have updated thoughts. On my end, I think 2024 will be a great year for the company. Competitive environment in e-comm seems to be increasingly more rational (i.e. checks say ad and incentive spend hasn't gotten crazy, and fees seem to have gone up), and gaming seems to have troughed. Stock still seems cheap if you look out a few years (though major assumption is on the terminal competitive environment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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