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NKLA - Nikola

Sunrider

By Sunrider
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Guest roark33

Guest roark33

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Perhaps I am putting too much faith in regulators, but I don't think you have been paying attention to how much Trevor talked online in the past 4 months.  It's incredible the amount of lies he told. 

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Guest cherzeca

Guest cherzeca

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Perhaps I am putting too much faith in regulators, but I don't think you have been paying attention to how much Trevor talked online in the past 4 months.  It's incredible the amount of lies he told.

 

no position.  relying on regulators is dangerous for an investor. ackman thought the FTC would put Herbalife out of business in US, certainly deserved it, didn't happen.  lumber liquidators is another example, pure shit show got a slap on wrist.  I do see Trevor having to pony up, but it is anyone's guess to what extent the company will suffer, now that it seems to have access to tech that will enable it to actually build something. 

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Foreign Tuffett Newbie

Foreign Tuffett

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Perhaps I am putting too much faith in regulators, but I don't think you have been paying attention to how much Trevor talked online in the past 4 months.  It's incredible the amount of lies he told.

 

no position.  relying on regulators is dangerous for an investor. ackman thought the FTC would put Herbalife out of business in US, certainly deserved it, didn't happen.  lumber liquidators is another example, pure shit show got a slap on wrist.  I do see Trevor having to pony up, but it is anyone's guess to what extent the company will suffer, now that it seems to have access to tech that will enable it to actually build something.

 

Exactly. If your thesis depends on regulators acting in a timely manner then you have a bad thesis.

 

It isn't finance related, but the example I always think of is Scientology, which is a criminal enterprise disguised as a religion, yet the US government (IRS, FBI, etc) has sat on its hands for decades despite a plethora of evidence.

 

Government also took a long time to start taking advantage of provisions of RICO Act after it was passed.

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Guest roark33

Guest roark33

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I completely get what you are saying, not depending on regulators, but this is a slightly different situation.  The lack of tech + founder's statements, having already caused him to resign are a unique situation here. 

 

He only lasted a little over 3 months as the face of a public company.  That has to be a record. And not a good one. 

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Guest roark33

Guest roark33

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Well, their 2.7b is now worth 1.7b and the chance Nikola can actually raise the capital to pay for the 700m re-tooling looks less viable by the day.  So, the stain of being associated starts to outweigh the benefits of free money.  I think it is 50/50 at this point. 

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Guest cherzeca

Guest cherzeca

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Nikola Founder Milton’s Fall Reveals What His Backers Feared

 

 

Fidelity Investments, among other investors, voiced concerns

GM’s $2 billion stake loses half its value in three weeks

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-28/nikola-founder-milton-s-fall-reveals-what-his-backers-feared?srnd=premium

 

isn't this a cautionary tale about musk? I know this isn't the tsla thread, but musk is unreliable (albeit brilliantly so).  (I'm just trying to work myself to short tsla...sorry nkla folks)

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arcube Newbie

arcube

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Absolutely apples to apples. You know the early backers of Elon and what they thought about the guy. Same thing. They all said he is full of %$#@. Go ahead and short it. Once SEC finishes with NKLA, TSLA is next.

 

Nikola Founder Milton’s Fall Reveals What His Backers Feared

 

 

Fidelity Investments, among other investors, voiced concerns

GM’s $2 billion stake loses half its value in three weeks

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-28/nikola-founder-milton-s-fall-reveals-what-his-backers-feared?srnd=premium

 

isn't this a cautionary tale about musk? I know this isn't the tsla thread, but musk is unreliable (albeit brilliantly so).  (I'm just trying to work myself to short tsla...sorry nkla folks)

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ratiman Newbie

ratiman

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Isn't this the best case scenario for Nikola? Trevor raises the money, the deal with GM is done, and Trevor is pushed out on some shadowy charges and a real car guy takes his place. It's not like the initial investors in Nikola were idiots and yeah, the tech is GM tech, but GM was never going to develop and market it successfully (see Bolt, Volt). The initial Nikola investors must be pretty happy with how everything turned out.

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BG2008 Newbie

BG2008

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Isn't this the best case scenario for Nikola? Trevor raises the money, the deal with GM is done, and Trevor is pushed out on some shadowy charges and a real car guy takes his place. It's not like the initial investors in Nikola were idiots and yeah, the tech is GM tech, but GM was never going to develop and market it successfully (see Bolt, Volt). The initial Nikola investors must be pretty happy with how everything turned out.

 

That's some 5D chess there

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A_Hamilton Newbie

A_Hamilton

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Isn't this the best case scenario for Nikola? Trevor raises the money, the deal with GM is done, and Trevor is pushed out on some shadowy charges and a real car guy takes his place. It's not like the initial investors in Nikola were idiots and yeah, the tech is GM tech, but GM was never going to develop and market it successfully (see Bolt, Volt). The initial Nikola investors must be pretty happy with how everything turned out.

 

I went to GM's EV day in March. The Cadillac Lyriq and new GMC Hummer will sell. They also showcased 9 other vehicles coming out over the next 4 years. Some were still wax mockups, but these are all fully funded in the company's current capital plans and of the 11 I'd say 6 were ones where I said "yep, I'd own that." The Ultium batteries are the real deal too. Also is GM's intention to not roll out a full electric lineup until they have a legitimate number of charging stations.

 

This NKLA deal is obviously looking like a real mess, but the reality is look at how cynically GM itself structured the deal. No cash in, receive equity stake for non-exclusive use of their electric technology/fuel cell tech and then get refunded for any manufacturing capacity you create for NKLA. Too, some will ask, why do this and the reality is NKLA had offers from others to use their batteries as well, so if NKLA was going to get funding anyway, why not take the free option as GM. GM has tar on its face thus far on this deal and maybe they deserve it, but I think the future is very very bright for both the company and shares there. 

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JRM Newbie

JRM

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Isn't this the best case scenario for Nikola? Trevor raises the money, the deal with GM is done, and Trevor is pushed out on some shadowy charges and a real car guy takes his place. It's not like the initial investors in Nikola were idiots and yeah, the tech is GM tech, but GM was never going to develop and market it successfully (see Bolt, Volt). The initial Nikola investors must be pretty happy with how everything turned out.

 

Isn't the bigger question whether or not Nikola can follow through with the deal?  Can they fulfill their obligation to GM ($700M?) without a capital raise? 

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rkbabang Newbie

rkbabang

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Two women file sexual abuse complaints against Nikola founder Trevor Milton

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/two-women-file-sexual-abuse-complaints-against-nikola-founder-trevor-milton.html

 

It’s almost like garbage people tend not to do just one bad thing, and if you dig, you keep finding more..

 

His first cousin says he sexually assaulted her at the funeral of their grandfather.  This guy's a class act.

 

"He grew up in a tight-knit Mormon family, according to Aubrey Smith, his first cousin. She went on social media recently and accused him of sexually assaulting her in 1999 when she was 15 and he was 17. In a public account on Facebook and Twitter, and repeated in a phone interview, Smith said that Milton came onto her at the funeral of their grandfather. He took her shirt off without permission, Smith wrote, and then he touched her inappropriately before someone knocked at the door and she ran out."

https://archive.vn/c9I0a

 

 

 

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ratiman Newbie

ratiman

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Isn't this the best case scenario for Nikola? Trevor raises the money, the deal with GM is done, and Trevor is pushed out on some shadowy charges and a real car guy takes his place. It's not like the initial investors in Nikola were idiots and yeah, the tech is GM tech, but GM was never going to develop and market it successfully (see Bolt, Volt). The initial Nikola investors must be pretty happy with how everything turned out.

 

Isn't the bigger question whether or not Nikola can follow through with the deal?  Can they fulfill their obligation to GM ($700M?) without a capital raise?

 

You think if they get that far they won't be able to hype the truck enough to sell a few more shares? They'll even have a working prototype. You and I know that autos are a horrible business but apparently there are a lot of people out there who don't. It shouldn't be that hard to raise the money.

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JRM Newbie

JRM

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Posted

Isn't this the best case scenario for Nikola? Trevor raises the money, the deal with GM is done, and Trevor is pushed out on some shadowy charges and a real car guy takes his place. It's not like the initial investors in Nikola were idiots and yeah, the tech is GM tech, but GM was never going to develop and market it successfully (see Bolt, Volt). The initial Nikola investors must be pretty happy with how everything turned out.

 

Isn't the bigger question whether or not Nikola can follow through with the deal?  Can they fulfill their obligation to GM ($700M?) without a capital raise?

 

You think if they get that far they won't be able to hype the truck enough to sell a few more shares? They'll even have a working prototype. You and I know that autos are a horrible business but apparently there are a lot of people out there who don't. It shouldn't be that hard to raise the money.

 

In the investment community sentiment has shifted to hard negative.  In the retail consumer message boards sentiment is starting to change from "oh kewl, I want one" to "is this vaporware?".  It's a tough call.  I'm tempted to pick up some weekly NKLA call options.

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wescobrk Newbie

wescobrk

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I initially put my toe in the water at $30 thinking there could be a short term squeeze good for an easy 10-20% return. I honestly don't care if the company can succeed in 1 year, 5 years or 10 years. I've seen a lot of very intelligent managers think in only binary terms such as Einhorn and many others infamously with Tesla (and still to this day!). I remember reading Whitney Tilson say that he is a crusader and gets a lot of joy when his shorts work out for moral reasons. I read that and thought that is dangerous to inject emotion when my objective is to make money.

 

Thinking of what I could have done better as my average cost is above $24 a share (I have some call options as well) is I admit I bought too quickly without doing a lot more research. I listened to all the interviews I could find of Trevor online and also read the critical comments including the podcast with Jason Calacanis. He is a long time friend of Elon and ripped Milton after the interview on CNBC.

 

The cons I don't even think I need to list here so I'm going to just post the pros:

 

• Bill Miller said if it is in the news then it is in the stock

• No debt and with only 400 employees current cash burn is about a million a month

• They should be able to wait at least a year and maybe two years before they need to raise more capital as their burn rate is only a million a month due to low employees

• They aren’t vertically integrated. They partnered with Bosch, IVCO, this reduces execution risk.

• Bank of America report about $11 trillion market in 2050 for Hydrogen and world can't be zero without hydrogen and will probably need to make up 20% of energy

• Cost of hydrogen has been reducing; same Bank of America report thinks hydrogen will continue to reduce cost

• Annoying CEO is completely out of the company

• Nikola is the only pure play hydrogen company

• Potential seems to be pretty high with oil company partnering as they are aware of the next 10-40 years will be a slow fade to zero

• One of the most powerful reasons is governments around the world will subsidize this industry due to climate change

• There could be a short squeeze that can cause the stock to go to $30, 35, 40 or even $50 a share in the next 3-6 months

• Long haul trucking can make sense due to light weight and lease package for stations in California as more renewables can bring cost of hydrogen down, plus recent law from California making illegal internal combustion cars in 2035; if any state can help make this happen would be California

• Battery isn’t a good model for long haul trucking therefore can be complimentary as battery will continue to have less than 300 miles

• A lot can happen in 12 months if company had high debt could easily go to zero

• Their institutional partners are staying with them such as Bosch, IVECO

 

so, to sum up, I should have waited and let the stock fall instead of buying and assuming a short squeeze but next week will show a floor after the retail traders can digest comments made on Friday about potentially walking away from GM deal.

I'm in the stock for one reason and that is to make money. I will likely scale out slowly if it hits $26 a share and continue to sell out if it gets into the $30's. I think there is a good chance they will announce another partner (besides GM) in the next 45 days as the incentive is so high for climate change and the massive money governments around the world will be throwing at companies that reduce co2.

If this goes to $10 or $5 and never goes above $25 then this was a stupid move on my part. We will see over the next 60 days as I think my thesis of a short squeeze will manifest by then.

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