CGX - Cineplex

[valueinvestor]

No determination can be made, but if it can’t, then run Cineplex and invest in Scene. It’s hard to build a co-branded loyalty program that has 25% of the Canadian population. Where the data is relevant, as it has their spending habits of the users.

 

 

[bizaro86]

I actually think selling a stake in scene to Aimia would probably make quite a bit of sense for both parties.

[valueinvestor]

Probably wouldn’t be surprised if it’s in the cards. Pun intended.

[samwise]

I actually think selling a stake in scene to Aimia would probably make quite a bit of sense for both parties.

 

Wouldn’t Scotia bank be the most likely buyer? Scotia can pay to protect their card franchise (assuming they think its worth protecting). They could own half the loyalty program and pay cash to CGX. Similar to how the banks funded Air Canada’s buy of Aeroplan.

 

Aimia brings nothing to the table except some cash. They don’t even have in-house loyalty experts anymore, which scene doesn’t need.

[bizaro86]

I actually think selling a stake in scene to Aimia would probably make quite a bit of sense for both parties.

 

Wouldn’t Scotia bank be the most likely buyer? Scotia can pay to protect their card franchise (assuming they think its worth protecting). They could own half the loyalty program and pay cash to CGX. Similar to how the banks funded Air Canada’s buy of Aeroplan.

 

Aimia brings nothing to the table except some cash. They don’t even have in-house loyalty experts anymore, which scene doesn’t need.

 

Scotia already owns half of scene. That's probably  good point - Scotia would be a deeper pocket and controls the primary revenue stream, they would be a more natural buyer.

[Nelson]

I bought some Cineplex a few years ago. Started having doubts about the stock a few months before the takeover premium came. Sold my shares and haven't looked back since.

 

I was a heavy movie goer before COVID, and I really enjoyed the retro films the theaters showed in Alberta in June/July. But there aren't any good movies playing now. Why would I go to a theater when all the good movies are being held until next year? Why would anyone?

 

The Cineplexes of the world need butts in seats today, not a few months from now.

 

I've always thought it made sense for Amazon or Netflix to buy a company like Cineplex. They can use the theaters to play their own content while still showing the big Hollywood movies. This shows Hollywood they want to play nice, which translates into more streaming deals down the road.

[Sharad]

I bought some Cineplex a few years ago. Started having doubts about the stock a few months before the takeover premium came. Sold my shares and haven't looked back since.

 

I was a heavy movie goer before COVID, and I really enjoyed the retro films the theaters showed in Alberta in June/July. But there aren't any good movies playing now. Why would I go to a theater when all the good movies are being held until next year? Why would anyone?

 

The Cineplexes of the world need butts in seats today, not a few months from now.

 

I've always thought it made sense for Amazon or Netflix to buy a company like Cineplex. They can use the theaters to play their own content while still showing the big Hollywood movies. This shows Hollywood they want to play nice, which translates into more streaming deals down the road.

 

 

Until about 12 months ago, I believe that content creators (i.e. movie producers) were unable to buy large cinema companies in the US. Only recently have those rules started to loosen, and there is potentially an opportunity for producers to own the theater companies, but the rules are likely different in each sovereign globally. Cineplex's issues go beyond simply the cinemas they own. They have been attempting to diversify into more and more gaming and social centers/points of interest, and this got derailed with COVID and the failed sale to Cineworld. Cineplex can now tap their existing lines of credit and hope for the best, but they failed to innovate in other ways over the last 6 months. They had the opportunity to use their standalone locations as drive-in theatres, and potentially apply their app technologies for the audio portion of the experience. They could have used all sorts of innovations to at least generate some revenues over the last few months, but simply sat on their hands and "hoped for the best".

 

Once the COVID situation has reached a resolution (hopefully sooner than later), it will be interesting if their Junxion concept will be brought to fruition and bring people back to theatres and entertainment complexes.

 

https://www.insauga.com/massive-theatre-and-entertainment-complex-coming-to-erin-mills-town-centre-in-mississauga

[Foreign Tuffett]

RIP to the North American cinema industry through at least YE 2020

 

Regal closing all locations w/ reopening TBD

 

So many movies are getting their release dates pushed back that there is zero clarity on when we'll see the next big budget blockbuster release.

 

[txvalue]

RIP to the North American cinema industry through at least YE 2020

 

Regal closing all locations w/ reopening TBD

 

So many movies are getting their release dates pushed back that there is zero clarity on when we'll see the next big budget blockbuster release.

 

Stock has quietly jumped from $4.8 to $10 over the past month with the vaccine news rolling out. Lots of interesting things in play, especially to see how the recent PVOD deals influence how studios release pictures in North America. With Universal inking deals with both Cinemark and AMC it will be fun to watch what happens next with Cineworld and the various other studios.

 

[Foreign Tuffett]

RIP to the North American cinema industry through at least YE 2020

 

Regal closing all locations w/ reopening TBD

 

So many movies are getting their release dates pushed back that there is zero clarity on when we'll see the next big budget blockbuster release.

 

Stock has quietly jumped from $4.8 to $10 over the past month with the vaccine news rolling out. Lots of interesting things in play, especially to see how the recent PVOD deals influence how studios release pictures in North America. With Universal inking deals with both Cinemark and AMC it will be fun to watch what happens next with Cineworld and the various other studios.

 

Hmm, not entirely sure why you quoted my post from October 5th. By "RIP" I was clearly referring to the movie release slate through the end of this year. And it still looks as bleak as ever, with rumors flying that WW1984 may go straight to HBO Max.

 

 

 

[txvalue]

No disrespect meant to you at all.

 

WW84 terms are certainly different. Things still leaking out but it seems like it will be available 30 days on HBOMax as well as theaters and then exclusively in theaters for 30 days then day 61 PVOD. I’ve also heard there was talk of some additional payment going to exhibitors for this deal and/or the studio take will be down from 60% to in the 40s.

[Foreign Tuffett]

No disrespect meant to you at all.

 

WW84 terms are certainly different. Things still leaking out but it seems like it will be available 30 days on HBOMax as well as theaters and then exclusively in theaters for 30 days then day 61 PVOD. I’ve also heard there was talk of some additional payment going to exhibitors for this deal and/or the studio take will be down from 60% to in the 40s.

 

I am skeptical that these new VOD-type revenue sharing deals between the studios and exhibitors are going to be much of a boon to exhibitors given that they are negotiating from such a position of weakness.  Do we know the details of any of them?

 

I don't think we are going to see much recovery in North America box office until vaccine is widely available. So maybe next spring?

[txvalue]

No disrespect meant to you at all.

 

WW84 terms are certainly different. Things still leaking out but it seems like it will be available 30 days on HBOMax as well as theaters and then exclusively in theaters for 30 days then day 61 PVOD. I’ve also heard there was talk of some additional payment going to exhibitors for this deal and/or the studio take will be down from 60% to in the 40s.

 

I am skeptical that these new VOD-type revenue sharing deals between the studios and exhibitors are going to be much of a boon to exhibitors given that they are negotiating from such a position of weakness.  Do we know the details of any of them?

 

I don't think we are going to see much recovery in North America box office until vaccine is widely available. So maybe next spring?

 

Agreed, I think Spring may even be a bit early at this point. You need a distributed vaccine, declining case numbers, Cali, NYC and Chicago opening up and then product. I don’t have firm numbers but for Universal and Cinemark the rumor is Exhibitors get 10% of PVOD and the Cinemark would get around 15% of that slice.

 

Still unclear how smaller exhibitors will fit into the structure if they do at all.

 

So you are looking at a NA landscape with many screens closing permanently - declines happening from the mom and pop operators and the large circuits closing down older big multiplexes. The new sweet spot for things seems to be under 18 screens and chains like AMC are quietly taking old large theaters offline.

 

The first question is obviously which circuits have the cash to limp through Q1 2021.

 

Those that survive may wake up to less competition as the weaker circuits and  screens close permanently.

 

As the window gets compressed the only bright spot is that studios haven’t yet found an economic model for VOD/PVOD that is a slam dunk.

 

 

[valueinvestor]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/20/universal-inks-deal-with-cineplex-to-shorten-theatrical-window.html