Mohnish Prabrai and Guy Spier performance

[Munger_Disciple]

Hi Aurokuror,

 

No idea what source or where you pulled those numbers from---the numbers I used are posted on his website and I show him significantly underperforming over the last 10 years (didn't check the last 5 but looks like 2018 was a very bad year from him. 

 

For last 10 years I show:

 

Value of $100 invested over 10 years:

PIF3=$243.37

DJ=$351.33

SP=$356.54

 

If the numbers you had were indeed correct I would agree however, what the numbers tend to show is that every 3/4 years Mohnish will have a year where he basically implodes.  (See 2018 referenced above)

 

I get the same 10-year results as AzCactus.

[LC]

At this point I'd question his "resources" given the.......degree to which they seem to translate to results.

 

I heard he and Guy went out to first nations' land, drank a gallon of ayahuasca tea, and heard the universe as it whispered, "buy more Sears"  ;D

[Jurgis]

At this point I'd question his "resources" given the.......degree to which they seem to translate to results.

 

I heard he and Guy went out to first nations' land, drank a gallon of ayahuasca tea, and heard the universe as it whispered, "buy more Sears"  ;D

 

In reality universe whispered "Britney Spears", but how were they supposed to know that something wasn't riiighht...

[Jurgis]

I ignored 2020 because it's not done yet. It will be soon so I'll include it then. This year is very volatile so I think it's better to wait until it's done to get the whole year performance. No?

 

I think I calculated correctly based on the data on Pabrai Funds website. For the last 10 years I just added all the last 10 years (from 2010 until 2019) and then divided the number by 10 to get the average yearly performance.

 

In the case of PIF3 this is:

34.4% - 15.7% + 23.4% + 46.6% +1.9% - 16.7% + 2.3% + 109.2% - 41.9% + 12.5% =  156% / 10 = 15.6%

 

I did the same for 5 years.

 

How did you get your number?

 

So... according to your math someone who had -50% return first year and +100% second year would have 2 year 25% annualized return?  ::)

Maybe you should calculate what real return in this case would be.

And then you might be able to calculate real return of PIF3.

 

 

Oh, baby, baby, how was I supposed to know

That something wasn't right here?

[Guest aurokuror]

You're right. My mistake.  :(

[Vish_ram]

Just found an amazing video on how to beat the indices. Watch & learn.

 

[Spekulatius]

Just found an amazing video on how to beat the indices. Watch & learn.

 

 

Yes, invest in the right fruit company. If you watched the movie and just did invest like Forest Gump did when the movie came out, you did very very well.

 

Nice self promotion. The Bollywood music is very annoying.

[stahleyp]

Just found an amazing video on how to beat the indices. Watch & learn.

 

 

Man, those numbers that people are posting must be wrong. The guy has a license plate that seems to indicate he is compounding at 26%.

 

Why would I believe some "official" or "audited" reports when his Youtube marketing video is clearly indicating 26%?

[shamelesscloner]

Clarification: He's compounding HIS OWN wealth at 26% with the boost from OPM. Do what he does, not what he says ;)

[Lollapalooza]

Hi Aurokuror,

 

No idea what source or where you pulled those numbers from---the numbers I used are posted on his website and I show him significantly underperforming over the last 10 years (didn't check the last 5 but looks like 2018 was a very bad year from him. 

 

For last 10 years I show:

 

Value of $100 invested over 10 years:

PIF3=$243.37

DJ=$351.33

SP=$356.54

 

If the numbers you had were indeed correct I would agree however, what the numbers tend to show is that every 3/4 years Mohnish will have a year where he basically implodes.  (See 2018 referenced above)

 

You guys must be feeling pretty good wearing those big boy's pants. Surely you got to jump on the Teslas and Airbnbs of today's market and made 1000% in 1yr.

 

Reading so much criticism from those enjoying anonymity, the keyboard warriors, is just sad to watch. If you are going to criticize someone's performance at least have the decency to share yours as well.

[fareastwarriors]

Hi Aurokuror,

 

No idea what source or where you pulled those numbers from---the numbers I used are posted on his website and I show him significantly underperforming over the last 10 years (didn't check the last 5 but looks like 2018 was a very bad year from him. 

 

For last 10 years I show:

 

Value of $100 invested over 10 years:

PIF3=$243.37

DJ=$351.33

SP=$356.54

 

If the numbers you had were indeed correct I would agree however, what the numbers tend to show is that every 3/4 years Mohnish will have a year where he basically implodes.  (See 2018 referenced above)

 

You guys must be feeling pretty good wearing those big boy's pants. Surely you got to jump on the Teslas and Airbnbs of today's market and made 1000% in 1yr.

 

Reading so much criticism from those enjoying anonymity, the keyboard warriors, is just sad to watch. If you are going to criticize someone's performance at least have the decency to share yours as well.

 

No, no, no.

 

They are professionals, investing other ppl's money, charging fees, out in the public giving talks, etc. We can't have some criticism of them? Come on...

 

[AzCactus]

No one on this thread goes around parading talking about their performance and compounding at 26%.  The biggest criticism around Pabrai (in my opinion) is his behavior and leveraging-Buffett/Munger not his actual poor performance by itself. 

[ukvalueinvestment]

I think the point has been made and this thread should come to a natural end.

[stahleyp]

No one on this thread goes around parading talking about their performance and compounding at 26%.  The biggest criticism around Pabrai (in my opinion) is his behavior and leveraging-Buffett/Munger not his actual poor performance by itself.

 

If someone insinuates that he compounds at 26% and is called out on it when he is no where close to it, we are the "keyboard warriors" who wear "big boy pants."

[AzCactus]

No one on this thread goes around parading talking about their performance and compounding at 26%.  The biggest criticism around Pabrai (in my opinion) is his behavior and leveraging-Buffett/Munger not his actual poor performance by itself.

 

If someone insinuates that he compounds at 26% and is called out on it when he is no where close to it, we are the "keyboard warriors" who wear "big boy pants."

 

That's not correct.  If Pabrai didn't go around parading his 26% mantra I doubt anyone here would call him out for his performance.  After all, many investment managers can't and don't compound at 26% and they aren't being called out here.  And there's a reason for that---they aren't anchoring to that number and using it for promotional purposes.

[stahleyp]

No one on this thread goes around parading talking about their performance and compounding at 26%.  The biggest criticism around Pabrai (in my opinion) is his behavior and leveraging-Buffett/Munger not his actual poor performance by itself.

 

If someone insinuates that he compounds at 26% and is called out on it when he is no where close to it, we are the "keyboard warriors" who wear "big boy pants."

 

That's not correct.  If Pabrai didn't go around parading his 26% mantra I doubt anyone here would call him out for his performance.  After all, many investment managers can't and don't compound at 26% and they aren't being called out here.  And there's a reason for that---they aren't anchoring to that number and using it for promotional purposes.

 

Yeah, sorry. I guess it wasn't clear but I was being sarcastic.  I agree with you.

[AzCactus]

No one on this thread goes around parading talking about their performance and compounding at 26%.  The biggest criticism around Pabrai (in my opinion) is his behavior and leveraging-Buffett/Munger not his actual poor performance by itself.

 

If someone insinuates that he compounds at 26% and is called out on it when he is no where close to it, we are the "keyboard warriors" who wear "big boy pants."

 

That's not correct.  If Pabrai didn't go around parading his 26% mantra I doubt anyone here would call him out for his performance.  After all, many investment managers can't and don't compound at 26% and they aren't being called out here.  And there's a reason for that---they aren't anchoring to that number and using it for promotional purposes.

 

Yeah, sorry. I guess it wasn't clear but I was being sarcastic.  I agree with you.

 

Lol sorry still early

[Parsad]

No one on this thread goes around parading talking about their performance and compounding at 26%.  The biggest criticism around Pabrai (in my opinion) is his behavior and leveraging-Buffett/Munger not his actual poor performance by itself.

 

If someone insinuates that he compounds at 26% and is called out on it when he is no where close to it, we are the "keyboard warriors" who wear "big boy pants."

 

That's not correct.  If Pabrai didn't go around parading his 26% mantra I doubt anyone here would call him out for his performance.  After all, many investment managers can't and don't compound at 26% and they aren't being called out here.  And there's a reason for that---they aren't anchoring to that number and using it for promotional purposes.

 

Pabrai uses 26% as a target.  He's fallen far short of it ending 2020, but he was on pace from 1995-2013.  Now if you say your goal is to become a billionaire, but you fall short and are worth $350M, would you call that a dramatic failure?  You still succeeded beyond most expectations...just not this lofty one you originally set out to hit. 

 

Peter Lynch averaged 30% a year for about 11 years.  If Pabrai stopped managing money at 2013, would you guys be slinging mud like you are?  Sure he's a public figure, excellent at marketing himself, but if he had shut his fund down in 2013 and walked away, you guys would be talking about him in the same breath as Lynch.  C'est la vie!  Like anything, your only as good as your last game...and Pabrai is the goat, not the GOAT presently! 

 

Funny thing is most of the people criticizing him had no problem eating his free dinners in the past!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

I criticize hypocrisy, but theres a fine fine and often a distinction. And I also continued to be amazed the number of people who seem to be oblivious to the fact that money managers run a business, and sell a product......if he could charge 5/50 and market himself as the wizard of oz, that would be within his rights.

 

As with Prem, my tendency to be critical is simply due to blatant failures to adapt as an investor and the continued arrogance of doubling down on losing.

[stahleyp]

I personally think Lynch was lucky. The last few years he ran Magellan he didn't beat the S&P 500 by a whole lot. I'm assuming he probably saw the writing on the wall. I also don't think his outperformance would have been nearly as much if he would have started in say 2007-2020.

 

Markets are way more efficient now. Fidelity also benefited big time before the time of Regulation FD. If I had to guess Lynch may have beaten the market by 2%-3% - which is still outstanding.

 

With that being said, I still think he's an elite investor - though not Buffett level.

 

As far as Pabrai is concerned, if you have a personal goal of 26% that's fine.  I don't have an issue with that. If you are trying to sell people on the idea (and it certainly seems that way given his marketing video!), that's a different story.

 

[brker_guy]

Pabrai uses 26% as a target.  He's fallen far short of it ending 2020, but he was on pace from 1995-2013.  Now if you say your goal is to become a billionaire, but you fall short and are worth $350M, would you call that a dramatic failure?  You still succeeded beyond most expectations...just not this lofty one you originally set out to hit.

 

Peter Lynch averaged 30% a year for about 11 years.  If Pabrai stopped managing money at 2013, would you guys be slinging mud like you are?  Sure he's a public figure, excellent at marketing himself, but if he had shut his fund down in 2013 and walked away, you guys would be talking about him in the same breath as Lynch.  C'est la vie!  Like anything, your only as good as your last game...and Pabrai is the goat, not the GOAT presently!

 

Funny thing is most of the people criticizing him had no problem eating his free dinners in the past!  Cheers!

 

Very well said, Sanjeev!  Very well said!  Hind-sights are always 20/20, and everyone loves to play Monday Morning QB.  Yet, no one dares to play football forever.  To have a thread like this one thread and then turning it into a personal bashing is a little bit of tacky and tasteless... 

[Gregmal]

I personally think Lynch was lucky. The last few years he ran Magellan he didn't beat the S&P 500 by a whole lot. I'm assuming he probably saw the writing on the wall. I also don't think his outperformance would have been nearly as much if he would have started in say 2007-2020.

 

Markets are way more efficient now. Fidelity also benefited big time before the time of Regulation FD. If I had to guess Lynch may have beaten the market by 2%-3% - which is still outstanding.

 

With that being said, I still think he's an elite investor - though not Buffett level.

 

As far as Pabrai is concerned, if you have a personal goal of 26% that's fine.  I don't have an issue with that. If you are trying to sell people on the idea (and it certainly seems that way given his marketing video!), that's a different story.

 

Come on Paul. I agree with you on this topic, sometimes. However I do think you get carried away at other times. You bash the heck out of everyone who underperforms, and then the few guys who outperform are "lucky"? Because he stopped? Or had a "few" years individually where he didnt beat the index? Come on! There's no winning I guess. Granted, I dont lose sleep feeling bad for guys who've made 7 and 8 figures trading paper, but still.

[Rod]

I suspect the only reason any of us have heard of Mohnish Pabrai is because he got lucky gambling on dot coms in the late 90s as a beginner and parlayed that into a successful money management career. During which time he has had a long sub-par record. I see nothing to indicate that Mohnish is a superior investor. But I would guess that 99% of the people who watch his talks believes he is a highly superior investor.

[Spekulatius]

Monish Pabrai is way better at marketing than at investing. That’s all there is to it.

[OracleofCarolina]

Cheers to Mohnish Pabrai!!!....not only an amazing businessman but amazing philanthropist!

 

What he is doing with Dakshana is inspiring.

 

https://dakshana.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/AR-19.pdf

 

Yes, his returns haven't kept pace with the S&P index this decade...he can have a couple of good years and change the numbers drastically