Gregmal Posted March 19, 2021 Share Posted March 19, 2021 Mr. Considine must have gotten word Gregmal was buying last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted March 20, 2021 Author Share Posted March 20, 2021 Interesting. Thanks Greg, I didn't see that. Quick google search results gues-timate his net worth around $35MM, so a couple million $$$ might be real money for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 20, 2021 Share Posted March 20, 2021 Yea whats also interesting to consider is that the spin off date was Dec 15. Per security law, blackouts are required to occur 2 weeks prior to quarter end and cease 2 days following the earnings release. So the first opportunity he had to buy he bought 100k shares. And following up, he's bought 100k shares every day he's legally been permitted to do so. And, he dropped the filing late on a Friday after the close which mean he wants to keep it on the DL.....so draw your own conclusions. Mine, stunted in disclosure mainly because I was both away and unable to post for a month and a half or so is that...the two biggest risks here IMO are gone. Democrats control congress and bailout money is already heading to blue states. Conditions will become significantly more favorable for NY/CA etc. You won't have to worry about unpaid rents. This will also produce some sort of inflation..which by itself should almost certainly make Parkmerced and those beautifully located 150 acres good enough to get par on the mezzanine loan. That loan is ~$2 per share. We're seeing record prices for office and retail RE assets so I think its time people in the public markets stopped mandating a 50% haircut to these type of assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Solid and sizable run of insider purchases by Considine and some other both purchases and sales from the other directors. Given the $8 stated NAV, sketchy track record, clarity and cap rate compression on coastal MF...is anyone of an opinion differing from... that this is basically still kinda cheapish but not excitingly cheap and probably warrants a $6.50-$7 FV? I've been trimming up here, but I'm also a big fan of just grabbing low hanging fruit rather than spending more time than necessary waiting for the exactly deserved valuation to shake out. Still own some, but curious if anyone sees things differently. Easy money IMO was the dollar and change between mid-high $4s-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 yea, i was out well before you. I was seeing this as something I'd only want to own at very big discount. i moved on to focus elsewhere. I was hoping it'd kind of languish as some of the bigger line items de-risked. perhaps that will occur @ 6 rather than $4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210426005194/en/Apartment-Income-REIT-Corp.-Announces-Further-Progress-as-“Best-in-Class”-Apartment-REIT AIRC w/ the $43/share $340mm equity infusion from a single investor. I moved on from AIRC/AIV as I felt the fattest part of the trade was over so this isn’t relevant to me but this is a nice fact pattern for APTS and illustrates the benefits of the AIV/AIRC split. That’s a nice placement of stock. A good “printing of shares” as LearningMachine might say. I would note that this is at a 15% or so discount to what AIV/AIRC said AIRC NAV was pre-split, but I don't think that's terrible in the context of how the stock has performed and in the context of accelerating the de-leveraging. It's fine to me if it's understood that the next one needs to be at 5% or less (not unlike when GRIF/INDT issued some equity at $50). You need to pay the first mover. Edited April 26, 2021 by thepupil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted April 26, 2021 Author Share Posted April 26, 2021 Announces Further Progress as "Best in Class" Apartment REIT = we sold some stonk. Wow I still own this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 haha, selling 5% of your stock at a 15% discount to aggressive mgt NAV and close to a 0% discount to some sell side NAV's in order to bring down leverage by a full turn is a good trade. Let them pat themselves on the back a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Personally I think its prudent to keep the parameters of this investment in focus; for me, being involved in the stub long enough to get some of the free money but short enough to avoid the abrasion of being invested alongside some questionable characters. This is probably even more apparent at AIRC. It might "make sense" to do something like this, but I dont think they deserve to really be allowed to operate or make decisions like this until the purpose of their entire series of corporate actions occurs...closing the discount. Essentially, they pitched a story, it didnt work, and now its back to "business as usual"...yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 35 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Personally I think its prudent to keep the parameters of this investment in focus; for me, being involved in the stub long enough to get some of the free money but short enough to avoid the abrasion of being invested alongside some questionable characters. This is probably even more apparent at AIRC. It might "make sense" to do something like this, but I dont think they deserve to really be allowed to operate or make decisions like this until the purpose of their entire series of corporate actions occurs...closing the discount. Essentially, they pitched a story, it didnt work, and now its back to "business as usual"...yuck. as of today, AIRC is at 93% of mgt NAV pre-split and AIV is at 84%. AIRC is at 110% of JPM's NAV. I would describe that as a resounding success (particularly on the AIV side given what it is) I'm not invalidating your view of mgt, and moved on for a reason, but the transaction's been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted April 26, 2021 Author Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) I'm just riding the momo. Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax and Ed Seykota. Edited April 26, 2021 by CorpRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Haha perhaps Im a tad too negative. I just abhor scummy management and boards. Just going off the top of my head, I know the entire sector has rallied. When you compare it to peers, I'm not sure the short term movement is really all that impressive and having played a bit with stuff like MAA or ESS, I am not really sure AIRC has kept stride. Nevertheless, here they are, now claiming "best in class" status. Welcome to the public markets. Do nothing hacks get a little market rally and now they've proven their strategy works! That said, if it wasn't for their awful reputation, AIV sub $5 most likely never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now