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PLTR - Palantir Technologies


Spekulatius

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Anyone know how the folks over at hedgeye are doing ?

 

Ha. I pay for one of their services and get value from it in tracking macro markets. But I am sometimes bemused by their analyst conclusions on individual stocks. They reversed on Peloton and Zoom after each had gone up multiples.

 

Andrew Left also was short PTON—said it was worth $5 when it was $30. Didn’t work out too well. His short target for PLTR is $20 which is not all that bearish considering it’s 2x first post direct listing price...

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Anyone know how the folks over at hedgeye are doing ?

 

Ha. I pay for one of their services and get value from it in tracking macro markets. But I am sometimes bemused by their analyst conclusions on individual stocks. They reversed on Peloton and Zoom after each had gone up multiples.

 

Andrew Left also was short PTON—said it was worth $5 when it was $30. Didn’t work out too well. His short target for PLTR is $20 which is not all that bearish considering it’s 2x first post direct listing price...

 

The idiots are not the hedgeye folks, but the people paying for this service.

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A bit off topic, but when are people going to stop buying stock in companies with multiple classes of common stock?  PLTR has three classes of common I believe - A, B and F.  Class A will have 1 vote per share, Class B will have 10 votes per share and Class F will have a variable number of votes per share.  Variable?!?!  WTF. 

 

Dual or multiple-class ownership structure should be banned in public companies.  Off my soap box now but had to get it off my chest. 

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A bit off topic, but when are people going to stop buying stock in companies with multiple classes of common stock?  PLTR has three classes of common I believe - A, B and F.  Class A will have 1 vote per share, Class B will have 10 votes per share and Class F will have a variable number of votes per share.  Variable?!?!  WTF. 

 

Dual or multiple-class ownership structure should be banned in public companies.  Off my soap box now but had to get it off my chest.

 

As long as the exchanges, groups like ISS, and major indexes allow it, it will continue. Then again, even Berkshire has the B shares...

 

With a co like PLTR, founders retaining control while they ramp up the business is a good thing IMO. This is also a business that can come under political crosshairs. And founder control is much better than having the risk of some hedge fund or PE group coming in thinking they can run things better...

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Palantir’s God’s-Eye View of Afghanistan

 

https://www.wired.com/story/palantirs-gods-eye-view-of-afghanistan/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link

 

It's a recent article but talks about the technology that was in use in Afghanistan in 2012 -- almost a decade ago. It seems logical that by now, Palantir's offerings are way more advanced, although many of the capabilities are classified and in-depth data is not available for us.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4402224-palantir-high-risk-high-reward

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I love this:

 

However, Palantir’s focus is the same, no matter who its shareholders are, Karp (CEO) emphasized.

“We’re in this for the long haul. If you are speculating or you’re thinking about this short-term, there are plenty of other things to invest in,” he said. “If you want something else, it’s a huge world. Buy some other stock. You don’t have to buy Palantir. No one is forcing you.”

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I love this:

 

However, Palantir’s focus is the same, no matter who its shareholders are, Karp (CEO) emphasized.

“We’re in this for the long haul. If you are speculating or you’re thinking about this short-term, there are plenty of other things to invest in,” he said. “If you want something else, it’s a huge world. Buy some other stock. You don’t have to buy Palantir. No one is forcing you.”

 

Same, bought some more  :D :D

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i dont know.  I personally made my first purchase on the date of the direct listing 9/30 in the 10's.  Nov 4 through Nov 25th is when it really had its breakout.  I'm not sure why, as there wasn't really any news in that time. 

 

At the time of the direct listing, I debated taking a much bigger position on the company, like 10%.  I was fairly certain the direct listing format would lead to gains over time (similar to others that have direct listed).  However, as a value investor at heart, I chickened out based on the huge losses, risks of competition, risks of slow adoption due to switching costs and time to implement, and ultimately settled on less than 0.5% position. 

 

I've averaged up during this lockup expiry pullback as I've researched their products and saw q4 performance as I've kicked myself for not just buying more at the direct listing.  still not a huge position, but a couple % in shares + some call spreads of varying dates.

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I like buying listings/IPOs that are "botched" where the insiders feel screwed:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/palantir-debuts-at-17-billion-value-after-long-awaited-listing?sref=i5h4hvUV

 

Best part about the "botched listing": narrative: buying it shortly after the listing allowed you to buy it at about 5-6 year old valuation levels:

 

Palantir ended the day with a market capitalization of about $15.7 billion based on its listed shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On a fully diluted basis based on all the shares covered in its filings, the company has a value of almost $21 billion, in line with the $20 billion valuation private investors awarded it in 2015.
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