Probability that covid will become endemic

[Cigarbutt]

There is no evolutionary advantage in a virus becoming more deadly.

Small additional comment. Assuming a virus evolution over a few months is a long enough window for adaptation and evolution to play out, efficiently killing your host is clearly not an 'advantage'. With the Spanish Flu episode, what killed the host was typically a secondary bacterial pneumonia, as a side effect of the initial virus invasion and before antibiotics were widely available. The particular matter with Covid-19 is that, like other 'successful' viruses, it is efficient at alluding the human immune system but it is also able to inhibit and delay the immune response in a way as to cause an unfortunate side effect related to this delay, in certain people, resulting in an exaggerated and delayed immune response that is out of proportion to the invader and that kills the host through some kind of self-inflicted immune storm. Of course, the virus does not really care about this unfortunate side effect in some people.

I am unfortunately not an evolutionary biologist but that makes sense to me.

This sentence is heavy with 'meaning'. Our investing styles are different. i tend to go for focused and rare bets, for opportunistic and easy killings in a way. This requires to reach a level of confidence equivalent to being able to challenge the CEO or Board. Despite this, there's always an impostor's syndrome involved which, i guess, must be felt by all who try to define their evolutionary circle of competence.

[LearningMachine]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-africa-covid-strain-resistance-antibodies-coronavirus-vaccine-latest-research/

 

Researcher at a biohazards lab in Johannesburg seems to be claiming that new strain is 10x more resistant to the vaccine and possibly "knockout" the immunity from vaccine totally.