rkbabang Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 You have to stay in touch with the gun blogs and forums as they can sour quickly on a product or hype it up. They also give you a good insight into the sentiment around certain companies. Yes, this is from the 90s and mostly forgotten, but I know people who will still not buy S&W to this day. Memories are long in the gun community. https://lneilsmith.org/smithandwessonmustdie.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 million NICS background checks in 2020, and already over 4 million in January 2021. 40% of purchases in 2020 were first time purchasers. Some buyers may have preference, but right now it looks like the shelves are empty. I don't disagree that Smith & Wesson is an inferior brand, but they are being priced as if they will be out of business in a few years. I think there is heightened uncertainty about Biden's firearms proposal. Ironically this is driving the gun and ammo hoarding. Much like the Green New Deal; what parts of the proposed gun plan will actually be implemented? If it is implemented in full, what is the actual impact on SWBI? More limited AR-15 sales? Seems survivable for a company with a sound balance sheet that should have a record earnings year in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted March 4, 2021 Author Share Posted March 4, 2021 Shocker, they crushed earnings. Let's see how long this lasts. I'm hearing there's at least 18-24 months worth of orders to fill. We'll see. Finished off the last share repurchase program, new $100 million share repurchase program approved...sub $1B market cap...PE<5...wtf is going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 Shocker, they crushed earnings. Let's see how long this lasts. I'm hearing there's at least 18-24 months worth of orders to fill. We'll see. Finished off the last share repurchase program, new $100 million share repurchase program approved...sub $1B market cap...PE<5...wtf is going on here? Feels like this one of those stocks you get on it, make some money, and then get off. Not a diamond hands kinda hold to me. Nothing wrong with that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted March 5, 2021 Author Share Posted March 5, 2021 I get the cyclical stock, low PE thing. I can't get over the possibility that they could earn half of their market cap in the next two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted May 4, 2021 Author Share Posted May 4, 2021 Another month of record background checks and record sales. They announced their intent to sell Thompson-Center brand; not sure I completely understand why other than it may draw a good valuation. I'm honestly not sure why the entire company isn't for sale at this point. FWIW, I rolled my position into the equivalent of 2023 leaps to get the same notional exposure and force myself to get out if it doesn't work out relatively soon-ish. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/fbi-gun-frenzy-now-in-16th-month-as-biden-seeks-ban Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 Dead horse, meet baseball bat. https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_day_month_year.pdf/view Still on track to beat 2020 NICS background checks. Maybe the institutions are finally done virtu-selling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 The institutions are the dumb money. Thats always been the case, they've just really showcased it the past 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 Sold half of my calls to take my original outlay off the table. Will let the rest ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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