COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)

[Gamecock-YT]

~12%, which not bad considering I was -10% at mid-year. The inflation trade in the second half of the year kind of bailed me out. Started the year with 63% cash and ended it with roughly the same. Only made one new investment for the year (MO). I expected more fallout with the crash in March and never thought the Fed would pull out the bazooka to deal with things so was behind the curve with putting my war chest to work. A learning experience for sure, I'm being more proactive with whittling down my watchlist to just companies I want to make for 'the long term' and following those companies more closely so can pull the trigger next time there's a big decline in prices.

 

Big winners: GLIBA/LBRDA, ATUSF, FRMO

Big loser: STNG

 

 

2020: 12.0%

2019: 33.0%

2018: -15.5%

2017: 35.0%

2016: 17.3%

 

 

Thanks everybody for their continued contributions to the forum. I learn something new every day, which is all anybody can ask for. I'm happy to put 2020 behind me as I'm sure many of you are as well. As someone with a high sense of wanderlust, being confined to home was difficult. Not to mention being stalked by a black bear while hiking by myself was a very unpleasant experience. 

 

 

[JRM]

Adjusting for one time mistakes that I don't plan on repeating my (adjusted) returns were well in excess of 100%.

 

But even in that case you didn't outperform the MSCI World Mistake Adjusted index. It was up 743.4% last year, as determined on December, 31, after the close. The mistake adjustment committee determined that everybody who was not 100% long Tesla in 2020 made a one-time mistake.

 

Dangit.  I should have indexed.

[CorpRaider]

My "Beardstown Ladies Method" annual return for 2020 is 25%.  Did about 6% across the portfolio, but a lot of that is indexed/AA. 

 

I actually posted a loss of almost 12% in the soon to be renamed Shadenfruede Fund (just an IRA I putz about with and actually track closely). 

 

In my defense, if you did really well this year, you are very likely a dope.  ;D 

 

BRK was up ~1.5%; RPV was down ~9%; QQQ was up ~46%; ZM was up ~400%, and that ticker that people thought was Zoom, Inc. but was actually totally another unrelated company was up ~900% (kidding). 

[Fitz]

79.9%

 

winners:

BYDDY - >40% of portfolio

FB

AMZN - march

CLWY

GOOG - march

 

Some losers -

EAF

FCAU

 

Flatliners - from my basis

BRK.B

DISCA

 

15% cash drag

 

[Viking]

John, as others have posted, it was very sad to hear of the passing of your brother. I have two and can’t imagine what you are going through. Our thoughts are with you :-)

[Lemsip]

9% in USD and 5.65% in GBP.

 

Happy with that.

 

Was largely inactive all year ( including in March). Sold down a bit of BRK after the AGM where Buffett appeared spooked. Should've held.

 

Best performers - NKE, GOOG

Just 2  MKL, DEO had YTD losses.

 

Positioned OK for next year although have to constantly resist the urge to trim NKE ( approaching 3x from my buy price of $51 in 2017).

 

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

To us capital is just capital.

We are repatriating capital because we either take the $ off the table, or lose it (and more), by doing something stupid in the market. Sure, we could still do something stupid, but paying off mortgages reduces the possibilities, and ensures that we get the benefit of higher discretionary cashflow - and hopefully, more out of life. Defeasement, is a simple technique by which to avoid early repayment penalties.

 

We are fortunate that with two nephews just starting out, we can repatriate material capital for quite some time.

The downside is that finance/accounting isn't really their interest, so this is a limited term process.

Sadly, there's never a smuggler when you want one!

 

SD

 

 

[writser]

A couple of you sent some nice messages after my last post, thanks for that. It felt good to write down some of my frustrations. But just to be clear: we're all healthy, the kid is awesome and I managed to eke out a small profit. All in all that's damn good for a terrible year like 2020 and I'm pretty much the last person you should feel sympathy for. John deserves that and the countless others who lost loved ones. Not to mention people who got fired, worked their ass off in the hospital, own a small business, etc. This was a terrible year for a lot of people and I was just whining from inside the stock market bubble. Something to keep in mind. Again, my condolences John.

[Libs]

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

 

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

 

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

 

These were the drivers:

 

CASH (thx Wabuffo)

XPEL

KNOP (thx Wabuffo)

GBTC

RUTH

 

 

[hillfronter83]

About 16%.

Most of my winners are special events and deep value such as FENG.

I'm very happy with the return especially considering how 2020 unfolded for many people around the world.

John, Really sorry for your loss!

Lastly wish everyone on this board a healthy and happy 2021!

[gary17]

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

 

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

 

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

 

These were the drivers:

 

CASH (thx Wabuffo)

XPEL

KNOP (thx Wabuffo)

GBTC

RUTH

 

 

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

 

Gary

 

 

[Gregmal]

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

 

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

 

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

 

These were the drivers:

 

CASH (thx Wabuffo)

XPEL

KNOP (thx Wabuffo)

GBTC

RUTH

 

 

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

 

Gary

 

One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

[Guest cherzeca]

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

 

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

 

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

 

These were the drivers:

 

CASH (thx Wabuffo)

XPEL

KNOP (thx Wabuffo)

GBTC

RUTH

 

 

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

 

Gary

 

One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

 

Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

[Guest cherzeca]

looking at the poll results, it looks like a normal distribution centered around +10%, turned 90 degrees, which makes sense, except for the outlier...massive number of +50% returns.  while I dont want to harsh anyone's mellow, I think there is a bit too much risk-taking going on...

[kh812000]

+41% gross / +33% net for year.

Net market exposure ~20% for year so shorts certainly were a big headwind to performance post March drawdown.  Long only return +83% gross.

 

Biggest drivers:

AMD

1211.HK  aka BYD

3888.HK  aka Kingsoft

NUAN

AAPL

 

 

[Liberty]

Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

 

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended.

[Spekulatius]

Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

 

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended.

 

I haven’t read the book, but this seems great advice. One thing is sure that happiness doesn’t scale with the money spent.

[Gregmal]

Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

 

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended.

 

I haven’t read the book, but this seems great advice. One thing is sure they happiness doesn’t scale with the money spent.

 

Yup. One of the biggest traps is when ones lifestyle scales up with their earnings. People, even of modest means would be retiring 10-20 years sooner if they just stuck with what they needed and maybe a few toys and were content. The biggest ceiling facing middle America, IMO, is needing to recycle into a new $600 a month car payment every 3 years. That $7200 a year over 25 years, even if you suck at investing and only did 5%, is nearly $400k...Same thing to a degree, albeit with other nuances, with housing.

[SharperDingaan]

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

 

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

 

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

 

These were the drivers:

 

CASH (thx Wabuffo)

XPEL

KNOP (thx Wabuffo)

GBTC

RUTH

 

 

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

 

Gary

 

Long time ago I lived in Calgary - and saw the impact of the first oil bust on the city and the surrounding community. Countless people, very good at what they do, losing everything, and quite a few suicides. Since then the same thing has largely repeated every downturn, but the message has remained very clear. Even in a civilized country you can lose everything tomorrow, and a great many people still do.

 

There are NO old, bold, bush-pilots. However, there ARE old bush-pilots - but they are ALL very good risk managers, both tactical and strategic. Most of them got to be old by executing on plans today, that made them less at risk tomorrow. During WWII Munger routinely did exactly this, day after day: never sending pilots through weather systems that would ice wings, and destabilize flight.

 

SD

 

[thowed]

About 16% in US$.  What a year.  My hedges meant I slept OK in March, but unfortunately I didn't take advantage enough of the volatility.  I hope that it's taught me to have a better plan if it happened again (though easier said than done...).

 

I try to be long-term buy and hold, but finally sold a few things I considered mistakes.  One has already pinged up since I sold... but I hope that I've replaced them with things that will do better over 10 years.

 

Japan did well for me (a mix of small-cap value, and quality mid-cap growth).

 

I bulked up the China exposure a fair bit - large and mid-cap growth stuff.  It's a bit 'EM consensus', but there are some great companies there if you can pick through the governance pitfalls, and the Macro Growth seems to be there (if not quite what it used to be).

 

I reduced Vietnam - I think it's a wonderful macro story, but struggle to find outstanding funds (I haven't managed to get a brokerage account - too fiddly for me).  There are a handful of great companies, though most are at Foreign Ownership Limits, so you'll pay a premium to buy them (except perhaps in very small quantities).  Performance has been frustrating for the past few years, as ASEAN hasn't been very popular, but I hope it'll come back soon, as things are generally cheap with amazing growth opportunities.

 

I increased UK exposure - mainly via owning a stake in an Akre-style listed fund management co.  I'm hoping the UK will come good next year now that Brexit's 'done' - though it's not really finished, and the vaccination set-up seems to be a mess.

 

And finally I increased US exposure - again (yawn) quality stuff like Ansys and Fortinet, stuff that's punchy for me, but I feel comfortable with the cash flow & management - I wasn't brave enough (or alternatively, early enough) to do the more hardcore tech stuff like PAR, NET etc.

 

Gregmal was the person who I learned most from this year - thank you for your insightful thoughts - it made me think much more 'open-mindedly' about valuations etc., as I'm normally very conservative.  I haven't bought Tesla or Bitcoin, but would probably buy the latter if it corrects.  I hope also to be more receptive to stories like SEA i.e. monsters that haven't made profits yet at punchy valuations.  I think it's important to know what sort of investor you are, and I don't think I'll ever be a 'trader', but I hope to keep learning and expand my options a little.

 

Condolences to John Hjorth.

 

[gary17]

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

 

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

 

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

 

These were the drivers:

 

CASH (thx Wabuffo)

XPEL

KNOP (thx Wabuffo)

GBTC

RUTH

 

 

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

 

Gary

 

Long time ago I lived in Calgary - and saw the impact of the first oil bust on the city and the surrounding community. Countless people, very good at what they do, losing everything, and quite a few suicides. Since then the same thing has largely repeated every downturn, but the message has remained very clear. Even in a civilized country you can lose everything tomorrow, and a great many people still do.

 

There are NO old, bold, bush-pilots. However, there ARE old bush-pilots - but they are ALL very good risk managers, both tactical and strategic. Most of them got to be old by executing on plans today, that made them less at risk tomorrow. During WWII Munger routinely did exactly this, day after day: never sending pilots through weather systems that would ice wings, and destabilize flight.

 

SD

 

thx SD and others for the wisdom / thoughts.  I am in fact thinking the risk adverse thing to do is to significantly exit the stock market and use the winnings to buy a nicer home in vancouvwr. Same mortgage. just change of asset class - and in slow times, having dirt that i can use is probably better than paper loss that’s useless :)

[cameronfen]

I'm about 15-20%.  Don't know exactly as I have a few special situations that fidelity still counts as a loss until they pay out.  Altogether a good year.  I'm too busy to check my portfolio too often so I can't do all the trading stuff, special situations that require paying attention like what @gregmal, @writser etc. suggest.  I've tried and usually I get too busy to pay attention so I end up losing money because I forget some deadline or don't act on some news :-X .  Alternatively you can get higher returns by buying the bubble.  Although I buy quite a bit of tech, I'm not discussing that...

[james22]

The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

 

consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice.

 

Andrew Tobias: The key to happiness is living well beneath your means and enjoying infrequent highly-targeted splurges. 

[Xerxes]

Here is mine -- all in registered accounts (so no taxes).

% net of commission paid + dividends

 

RRSP --- ~7% gain y-o-y

TFSA --- 63% gain y-o-y

 

note1: my RRSP is 3 time larger than TFSA

note2: USD/CAD was more or less stable year over year

-----------------------------------------

RRSP

During the down turn in Q2 2020, I bought BRK, FFH and BAM more than anything else. My outdated view was that the trio as investor/capital-allocators would salivate in a market dislocation. I was humbled. All three were incapacitated for different reasons, discussed in depth in this forum endlessly.

 

That said, my view is that these planted seeds will blossom in 2021. The trio make up 40% of my RRSP portfolio at current prices.

 

I also added to RTX/L3 later in June.

 

My main gains that offset the losses and put me in the black were primarily due to y-o-y gains in:

-Amazon

-Tencent

-Walt Disney

-Alphabet

-Alibaba (was doing well till it went down)

 

These five make up 35% of my RRSP portfolio at current prices. 

 

Interestingly, i did not add/remove anything to the 5 names above in 2019-20. It seems doing nothing helped me! On the other hand, I had shamefully sold Nvidia on March 23, at about $212. My cost was $125-130. The rest is history.

 

I think selling Nvidia at exactly wrong time, helped my overall gain be limited to 7% compares to S&P500's 15%. With 25% of S&P500 being made up of the FAANGs, one cannot afford in selling a tech name at the wrong time.

 

That said, my view is that i got the FFH/BRK/BAM/RTX/L3 vs. the rest of 495 companies in the S&P500 (beyound the FAANG), and that the seeds I have planted will blossom.

 

-----------------------------------------

TFSA

Most of my gains were due to Lightspeed, IAC and Uber etc., melting up like it is 1999.

 

 

 

[thowed]

Xerxes - I sold some tech on about March 23 too!  I cringe to think of it now.  Psychology is powerful! 

 

My (blurred) memory is that amidst the volatility buffeting I just felt that things were going to go down more, and so I'd sell and buy back later.  Maybe I have to try and remember this next time I feel this way, and remind myself that it could mark the bottom!

 

Overall though, I am happier with the quality of my portfolio now, which I think is important - hopefully this will help me to not sell anything if things were to plunge again, but just gradually add on the way down, as I should have done.

 

I'm going to try to 'rub my nose in it' until I hopefully learn something!