Dazel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Fairfax’s Blackberry holding is up $400m this morning. I don’t care how....Prem knows more than we do... The insider dump I see as headline was hardly that it was a dribble of shares sold...I checked and am betting no one else did. Nice to see FAirfax on the other side of a massive short squeeze but BlackBerry’s stock was controlled by short sellers and MM for years. The question is does Prem wait like Onex did...and make $4 or $5b...or sell or does BB stop going up. I love it because I am not paying for the option when buying Fairfax shares. Get some popcorn today. It appears to me that there is now trend in smashing undervalued small float value stocks where short sellers and MM have controlled the stock prices for year and years!!! Sound familiar? Look at value stock performance. It is just what I am seeing...I may be late or early or in the middle no idea! As strategy, at the start it makes sense...WSB target picks are NOT made by kids...that is for sure. They are carefully thought out and have some margin of safety at the start...for the most part. Most don’t know that Ford and GM are favourites as well. Pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 $600m gain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripleoptician Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I can not find any options chain for Fairfax under TSE or OTC. Does anyone know if they is a way to access Fairfax call options here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I can not find any options chain for Fairfax under TSE or OTC. Does anyone know if they is a way to access Fairfax call options here? I don't believe there has been since they delisted from the NYSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripleoptician Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I can not find any options chain for Fairfax under TSE or OTC. Does anyone know if they is a way to access Fairfax call options here? I don't believe there has been since they delisted from the NYSE Thought so. Too bad because it’s such a nice asymmetric bet to make an outsized bet on with LEAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Fairfax’s Blackberry holding is up $400m this morning. I don’t care how....Prem knows more than we do... The insider dump I see as headline was hardly that it was a dribble of shares sold...I checked and am betting no one else did. Nice to see FAirfax on the other side of a massive short squeeze but BlackBerry’s stock was controlled by short sellers and MM for years. The question is does Prem wait like Onex did...and make $4 or $5b...or sell or does BB stop going up. I love it because I am not paying for the option when buying Fairfax shares. Get some popcorn today. It appears to me that there is now trend in smashing undervalued small float value stocks where short sellers and MM have controlled the stock prices for year and years!!! Sound familiar? Look at value stock performance. It is just what I am seeing...I may be late or early or in the middle no idea! As strategy, at the start it makes sense...WSB target picks are NOT made by kids...that is for sure. They are carefully thought out and have some margin of safety at the start...for the most part. Most don’t know that Ford and GM are favourites as well. Pattern? He might, but he might not. And even if he does, its hard to argue its done anyone any good. I recall being long Blackberry leading into the eventual "fake bid". It was appealing from a value perspective and it was obvious they were really going to put the company in play. But when the best that comes of a real process is a sham bid from Fairfax at what was maybe IIRC a 5-10% premium....that tells you everything you needed to know. RUN TF AWAY. I actually came to believe that the BB deal was possibly more of a good publicity thing; bailing out one of Canadas national treasures...than it was a sound investment. FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc75 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 . FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%. Imagine... unloading BB and buying BRK at today's prices. So simple yet so unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 . FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%. Imagine... unloading BB and buying BRK at today's prices. So simple yet so unlikely. You guys make fun, but the fact remains that since 2016, BRK is up 75% to date, while BB is up 140% to date over the same period. Whether it's market exuberance, Robinhood accounts, investors recognizing that BB is not the same BB, or capital flowing to cheaper stocks from overpriced stocks...BB has done better than BRK. My point is that Prem spent 12 years as a portfolio manager then another 30 years running an insurance holding company/investment company...you really think he can't do better than BRK going forward with the universe available to him and the universe available to Berkshire? If so, why the heck are you posting on here...trolling Watsa?! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 But, the OTM Leaps on BRKB since it's lo in past 2 year period might likely have been a better asymmetric return too date here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 But, the OTM Leaps on BRKB since it's lo in past 2 year period might likely have been a better asymmetric return too date here? So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Petec I was responding to Parsad's suggestion that Prem and a vanilla FFH equity purchase has/was a better bet then Buffet's products when their is possibly more valuable non conventional bets ( i.e. outside the box and or on the edge ) that end up geometrically more valuable then just an arithmeticical mean value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Petec I was responding to Parsad's suggestion that Prem and a vanilla FFH equity purchase has/was a better bet then Buffet's products when their is possibly more valuable non conventional bets ( i.e. outside the box and or on the edge ) that end up geometrically more valuable then just an arithmeticical mean value. Ah - sure. But then if you allow yourself total freedom to pick securities and dates you'll almost always find something better. Also, simple price performance doesn't adjust for risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieV Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 . FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%. Imagine... unloading BB and buying BRK at today's prices. So simple yet so unlikely. You guys make fun, but the fact remains that since 2016, BRK is up 75% to date, while BB is up 140% to date over the same period. Whether it's market exuberance, Robinhood accounts, investors recognizing that BB is not the same BB, or capital flowing to cheaper stocks from overpriced stocks...BB has done better than BRK. My point is that Prem spent 12 years as a portfolio manager then another 30 years running an insurance holding company/investment company...you really think he can't do better than BRK going forward with the universe available to him and the universe available to Berkshire? If so, why the heck are you posting on here...trolling Watsa?! Cheers! The fact also remains that since 2016 Fairfax is down more than 25% to date. I don't think it is a good time to point to stock prices as vindication of Prem and Fairfax. Prem hasn't been able to add value with shorts. He and the company have seemingly have acknowledged as much. If they can't add value with it, they should stop doing it. I'm not sure whether or not Prem/Fairfax can do better than investing in BRK. BRK isn't a bad stock at all in my estimation. BB was a big loser a month ago. The sun has now shined upon shareholders of the company and turned it around. I hope Fairfax is able to take advantage. I wouldn't, however, want to point to the BB position as evidence of the company's stock investing acumen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 BB was a big loser a month ago. The sun has now shined upon shareholders of the company and turned it around. I hope Fairfax is able to take advantage. I wouldn't, however, want to point to the BB position as evidence of the company's stock investing acumen. You'll feel differently when it hits $50 on Friday ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieV Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 BB was a big loser a month ago. The sun has now shined upon shareholders of the company and turned it around. I hope Fairfax is able to take advantage. I wouldn't, however, want to point to the BB position as evidence of the company's stock investing acumen. You'll feel differently when it hits $50 on Friday ;) $50? I thought it was going to $100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 My bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 BB was a big loser a month ago. The sun has now shined upon shareholders of the company and turned it around. I hope Fairfax is able to take advantage. I wouldn't, however, want to point to the BB position as evidence of the company's stock investing acumen. You'll feel differently when it hits $50 on Friday ;) $50? I thought it was going to $100. You're missing a few 000s. It's going to moon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluedevil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 In light of the Blackberry experience, we really need to add the Rocketship emoji to the menu here. It is very difficult to express where BB is going without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sullivcd Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Are we pushing $600 bvps these days? In a hard market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikek Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 An interesting post on Fairfax https://tidefall.substack.com/p/fairfaxs-stealth-rally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluedevil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Thanks for posting. I had not thought much of Farmers Edge before. But having spent some time on its website, it is a business that seems to have some real momentum, and is of course in a very hot space. A press release from today about a partnership with Google Cloud: https://www.farmersedge.ca/farmers-edge-partners-with-google-cloud-to-digitally-transform-agriculture/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Out of interest, what if any data did you spot that suggests momentum? Anything on acres under management, client numbers, revenue, etc? Or was it more soft factors like the google announcement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluedevil Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Soft stuff only. Partnership with Google; partnership with MunichRe and a host of other insurance companies (including Fairfax Brazil and Hudson); a deal to help digitize 3m acres in Brazil. No hard numbers seem available though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 . FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%. Imagine... unloading BB and buying BRK at today's prices. So simple yet so unlikely. You guys make fun, but the fact remains that since 2016, BRK is up 75% to date, while BB is up 140% to date over the same period. Whether it's market exuberance, Robinhood accounts, investors recognizing that BB is not the same BB, or capital flowing to cheaper stocks from overpriced stocks...BB has done better than BRK. My point is that Prem spent 12 years as a portfolio manager then another 30 years running an insurance holding company/investment company...you really think he can't do better than BRK going forward with the universe available to him and the universe available to Berkshire? If so, why the heck are you posting on here...trolling Watsa?! Cheers! The fact also remains that since 2016 Fairfax is down more than 25% to date. I don't think it is a good time to point to stock prices as vindication of Prem and Fairfax. Prem hasn't been able to add value with shorts. He and the company have seemingly have acknowledged as much. If they can't add value with it, they should stop doing it. I'm not sure whether or not Prem/Fairfax can do better than investing in BRK. BRK isn't a bad stock at all in my estimation. BB was a big loser a month ago. The sun has now shined upon shareholders of the company and turned it around. I hope Fairfax is able to take advantage. I wouldn't, however, want to point to the BB position as evidence of the company's stock investing acumen. But ask yourself, is there a justifiable reason why Fairfax is trading where it is, or is it simply Mr. Market discounting Fairfax with no real reason? For all intents and purposes, FFH should be trading at book value, and that has nothing to do with anything Fairfax or Prem have done. It's just the market is discounting them, just like the market is inflating BB, GME or TSLA. The voting machine is in hyperdrive at the moment. I see another 50% market correction coming...the fourth major correction in just over 20 years! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Parsad we are barely up with FFH and/or other value names, and now you are already expecting a 50% drop from here ! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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