YOLO Tard Ideas

[DooDiligence]

How do you make money off the insanity of W S B?

 

I'll start with the 1st YOLO tard idea.

 

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To the left, to the left, to the right, to the right

To the front, to the front, to the back, to the back

Now dip, baby, dip, come on, let's dip, baby, dip, baby

Dip, baby, just dip, baby, dip, baby, dip

Just dip, cotton candy sweet and low

Let me see that tootsie roll

 

TR

 

High short interest & the stock is up a bit over 14% today and options are available.

 

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Spruce Point made valid points back in 2017ish about management, and it doesn't look any different now. The pandemic has hit them hard and it remains to be seen whether they'll retain their bottom shelf price point positioning in stores, but they do have some decent brands, like Tootsie Pop, Sugar Baby's, Junior Mints and Andes to name a few.

 

www.sprucepointcap.com/tootsie-roll-industries/

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/spruce-point-capitals-ben-axler-211650018.html

 

Ben Axler looks like someone the W S B crowd could really despise.

 

Axler: "...their products don't resonate with the current generation"

W S B crowd: "...who are you to tell us what we like?"

 

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Here's a quick look by a pair of YouTube guys that picked up 840+ views since the end of December.

 

 

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There's no direct link to investor relations on the Tootsie Roll site.

I Googled "Tootsie Roll investor relations" in order to find it.

 

https://tootsie.com/financials/

 

 

Latest 10Q

 

https://tootsie.com/core/files/tootsie/financial/4587031065d3fc674f6432255f62094c.pdf

 

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I'm posting this before looking through the 10Q, and if I was a true YOLO tard, I'd start hammering away at calls and just never read the thing.

[Fly]

I think it is easiest to follow the WSB crowd by browsing their reddit page. It seems like BB, NOK, AMC, BBBY top of chain OTM calls for the next few weeks are the way they are heading.

 

Also keep an eye on this:

https://dayminer.herokuapp.com

[LC]

WSB's true power comes from the weaponized autism of techbros, neckbeards, and basement dwellers.

 

Therefore I'm in for 100 calls of TR and TSN cuz if i know one thing it's tards love their tendies and tootsie rolls. YOLO

[KFS]

I think it is easiest to follow the WSB crowd by browsing their reddit page. It seems like BB, NOK, AMC, BBBY top of chain OTM calls for the next few weeks are the way they are heading.

 

Also keep an eye on this:

https://dayminer.herokuapp.com

 

I have been checking the site below on occasion, just as an easy way to casually monitor the insanity without having to jump direcly into the WSB cesspool too often.  ;D  Similar data to the one you linked but in the format of volume vs time chart displays.

https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment

 

[StubbleJumper]

You guys seem to have integrated the WSB concepts of retards, rockets, autists and YOLO, but nobody has gone so far as to start fapping. I don't know how fapping makes the stonk price increase, but it sounds like a lot of fun especially if it works.  Go full out retard and then fap away says I...

 

 

SJ

[KFS]

Ironically, if/when the YOLO bubble finally reaches peak euphoria and finally pops/deflates, I imagine a fair deal of the next generation of cautious value investors will emerge out of the WSB/retard/autist wreckage.  I'm sure plenty of COBF members can relate to similar painful lessons of the past and eventual conversion. 

 

[DooDiligence]

I'm anxious to maintain my status as the worst financial analyst on CoBF, so here goes.

 

Tootsie Roll doesn't look like a horrible operation. It does look boring, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. The business has obviously taken a hit due to the pandemic. Their products are largely used for consumer giveaway events like Halloween, Mardi Gras throws, restaurant checkout counters, etc. They also rely on impulse purchases.

 

There's the possibility of a declining product category but that could be said of most businesses these days. They could also see a snap back in revenues post covid. Sugar Babies are friggin delicious & who hates Tootsie Pops?

 

They look like they have sufficient liquidity to handle normal business operations and they have no debt (except for a small amount at a Spanish subsidiary).

 

Capex requirements aren't huge.

 

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The pension liability looks pretty bad and their current labor contract requires them to continue participating in the plan through September 2022.

 

"The Company understands that the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Senate have proposed various legislation, including the “Butch Lewis Act,” that would provide varying degrees of assistance to troubled multi-employer plans similar to this Plan, including long-term low interest loans to troubled multi-employer plans. Certain provisions proposed would change the withdrawal liability rules which could increase the Company’s obligation in the event that the Company withdrew from this Plan, resulting in higher annual payment amounts and payments for a longer period of time in excess of the maximum twenty-year period discussed above. The Company is currently unable to determine the ultimate outcome of the above discussed multi-employer union pension matter and therefore is unable to determine the effects on its consolidated financial statements, but the ultimate outcome could be material to its consolidated results of operations or cash flows in one or more future periods."

 

I wonder if they would try to do what Hostess Brands did to get rid of union employees? The only Google result for union problems that I found is this,

 

http://fourteeneastmag.com/index.php/2020/11/20/tootsie-roll-industries-chicago-employees-protest-for-hazard-pay-amid-pandemic/

 

I haven't been able to find any major OSHA violations.

 

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They have a large non-qualified deferred compensation liability which seems to be mostly attributable to executives, as per the last Def 14A, pg 16.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/filing/4903322

 

Is carrying a large deferred comp liability a tactic used to thwart takeovers?

Seems like the large insider ownership would be enough.

 

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The latest 10Q presents unaudited figures and they replaced the auditor, Price Waterhouse Coopers, with Grant Thornton in 2018.

 

"The audit reports of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP on the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2017 contained no adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion and were not qualified or modified as to uncertainty, audit scope or accounting principle. During the Company’s fiscal year ended December 31, 2017, and for the subsequent interim period through June 7, 2018, there were no “disagreements” (as defined in Item 304(a)(1)(iv) of Regulation S‑K) with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP on any matter of accounting principles or practices, financial statement disclosure or auditing scope or procedure, which disagreements, if not resolved to the satisfaction of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, would have caused PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP to make reference thereto in their reports on the consolidated financial statements for such year. Further, there have been no “reportable events” (as defined in Item 304(a)(1)(v) of Regulation S‑K)."

 

Non-executive board member, and audit committee chair, Barre A. Seibert was First Vice‑President of Washington Mutual Bank 2003‑2007; Vice‑President from 2001 to 2003; Chief Financial Officer of TransAlliance LP and predecessors from 1995 to 2001. Mr. Seibert is a seasoned financial executive and brings executive management expertise to the Board along with in‑depth knowledge and insight in the areas of corporate finance, banking, accounting and audit related issues and financial reporting.

 

I can't find anything to say Mr. Seibert was responsible for any wrongdoing at WAMU.

 

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There are 2 classes of shares. Each share of Common Stock is entitled to one vote and each share of Class B Common Stock is entitled to ten votes.

 

Ellen Gordon has direct ownership of 30.2% of common & 49% of class B shares.

She also indirectly owns (as fiduciary) 25.4% of common & 34.3% of class B shares.

 

Total insider ownership is 55.7% common & 83.3% class B shares.

 

Seems to me like this would give them every right to be tight lipped. Personally, I think Spruce Point were being bitches about this.

 

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They've issued 3% stock dividends every Dec (I only looked back to 2017 & 2018) but did not issue a stock dividend in 2020.

 

Not a lot of float = wild price swings if the YOLO crowd were to try and storm the palace. Other than that, this is pretty boring and will likely remain so unless Mrs. Gordon passes and her shares get sold off.

 

"Certain life insurance benefits payable with respect to the Chief Executive Officer were provided by the Company in lieu of substantial non‑qualified deferred compensation benefits that would have otherwise accrued during her employment with the Company over a period of approximately 25 years through 2008. This benefit was intended to minimize the necessity for the estate of the Chief Executive Officer to sell large blocks of the Company’s Common Stock to pay estate taxes that might otherwise disrupt the market for the Company’s shares. Under whole life insurance policies subject to split dollar life insurance agreements, Mrs. Gordon’s beneficiaries would have received $30,955,000 if she had died on December 31, 2019. Premium payments towards these life insurance policies were discontinued in 2008 and all premiums paid by the Company to fund these benefits are fully recoverable upon payment of death proceeds from the life insurance policies subject to the split dollar life insurance agreements."

 

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Big volume today and a smattering of talk on W S B over the past week.

 

I'll probably just watch this and see if the YOLO tards start fapping to images of Ellen Gordon. If I was going to do anything, it would be to buy a very small bit of equity just for fun (knowing I'd likely watch it do nothing for the next decade.)

 

Then I'd start shitposting on reddit about how the shorts are right about these guys.

Pointers on how to write like a boomer would be appreciated.

[Gregmal]

TR looks like another good candidate to sell some puts on. 3 weeks out the Feb 30s net you a buck, which is ~3x the annual dividend and worst case your basis is basically the 52 week low. To lose money the stock needs to decline ~15% in a few weeks. Or you can go long the common and short the $40 June calls for ~$3.50 which if called results in ~60% IRR. Interesting setup here.

[DooDiligence]

TR looks like another good candidate to sell some puts on. 3 weeks out the Feb 30s net you a buck, which is ~3x the annual dividend and worst case your basis is basically the 52 week low. To lose money the stock needs to decline ~15% in a few weeks. Or you can go long the common and short the $40 June calls for ~$3.50 which if called results in ~60% IRR. Interesting setup here.

 

Thanks for the input.

 

I'm not sophisticated enough and have learned my lesson regarding options. Equity only from now on and maybe covered calls on positions with gains where I'd be happy either holding or not.

 

edit: I see your point about offsetting any equity by shorting calls. Short term success would largely depend on reddit. Long term success would depend on the American sweet tooth and what happens to the business after Mrs. Gordon passes.

[DooDiligence]

Stabber and ambulance driver?

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Given the name on the thread - I'm going to suggest that we all buy OTM call options on ticker YOLO - the Advisory Shares Cannabis ETF. Cannabis is clearly the future and will eat all competition in its path (cigs first, then beer, then the entire food industry with edibles, then the entire productivity industry as everything is just done in our heads). TAM is huge!

 

So let's all buy OTM calls and let this baby go!!!!!

[DooDiligence]

I had a good nights sleep, got up, drank a cup of coffee, and realized that I slept well for a reason.

 

I'm going to sit this YOLO tard stuff out.

 

It will be interesting to watch & if a bunch of TR shares eventually get unleashed on the market, causing the price to deteriorate, I may buy a little, but I'm not going to buy a pig in a poke in the hopes that a bunch of morons are going to pile in.

[LC]

[John Hjorth]

I had a good nights sleep, got up, drank a cup of coffee, and realized that I slept well for a reason.

 

I'm going to sit this YOLO tard stuff out.

 

Jeff,

 

There is no use of complicating life, if it's not needed. To me, this YOLO line of thinking is actually dumb & also boring. Focus on what you want to accomplish [for your part]: MUSIC!

 

It also does not harm to keep time horizon in mind. [Personally, I check my statistical life expectancy every year in January at the website of the Danish Statistical Department, right now about 21 years.]

 

Honestly, & personally, I think it's fair to say [if you are aware your life expectancy] that it's better to stay focused on getting shagged as the years go by [in stead of this YOLO BS]!  [based on theme : "Will this be the last time?"] [j/k].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Each to their own propensities.

[DooDiligence]

I had a good nights sleep, got up, drank a cup of coffee, and realized that I slept well for a reason.

 

I'm going to sit this YOLO tard stuff out.

 

Jeff,

 

There is no use of complicating life, if it's not needed. To me, this YOLO line of thinking is actually dumb & also boring. Focus on what you want to accomplish [for your part]: MUSIC!

 

It also does not harm to keep time horizon in mind. [Personally, I check my statistical life expectancy every year in January at the website of the Danish Statistical Department, right now about 21 years.]

 

Honestly, & personally, I think it's fair to say [if you are aware your life expectancy] that it's better to stay focused on getting shagged as the years go by [in stead of this YOLO BS]!  [based on theme : "Will this be the last time?"] [j/k].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Each to their own propensities.

 

Thanks for the kind thoughts.

 

My most important New Years resolution is to start a reggae band.

I've been diligently learning technique & covers.

 

My piano instructor passed away right before Christmas.

He was also a church organist & I had just started expressing interest in playing organ.

We never got to it in a meaningful way  :-\

 

I added a drawbar organ to my keyboard stack & have been learning from youtube videos.

I've been searching for a tonewheel / clonewheel organ instructor with no luck.

 

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P.S. I'm not surprised at the LVMH performance. Luxury stands the test of time & tide. I should've picked some up back when it was around $70.

[DooDiligence]

 

This account is a scream  ;D

 

"If Gamestop decides to halt all operations and rebrand itself as a cryptocurrency it will go to $30,000"

 

[DooDiligence]

TR up another 10% today.

 

www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-tr-options-data-report-2021-01/

 

I hope someone here makes money on this.

 

Personally, I can't bring myself to do anything with TR.

I've made so many stupid mistakes in the past.

This may be another one, but I'm going to stay the course.

[StubbleJumper]

TR up another 10% today.

 

www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-tr-options-data-report-2021-01/

 

I hope someone here makes money on this.

 

Personally, I can't bring myself to do anything with TR.

I've made so many stupid mistakes in the past.

This may be another one, but I'm going to stay the course.

 

 

I've figured it out!  I can keep up with the times:

 

TR YOLO!!!!!!!  To the moon!  Fap, Fap!!!

 

and,

 

BRK POS to zero!!!!

 

 

SJ

[DooDiligence]

TR up another 10% today.

 

www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-tr-options-data-report-2021-01/

 

I hope someone here makes money on this.

 

Personally, I can't bring myself to do anything with TR.

I've made so many stupid mistakes in the past.

This may be another one, but I'm going to stay the course.

 

 

I've figured it out!  I can keep up with the times:

 

TR YOLO!!!!!!!  To the moon!  Fap, Fap!!!

 

and,

 

BRK POS to zero!!!!

 

 

SJ

 

I'm thinking about buying a little Fairfax.

Seems more satisfying than fapping.

[james22]

I'm thinking about buying a little Fairfax.

Seems more satisfying than fapping.

 

You're doing it wrong.

[pau_]

LMAO

 

God I hate the vernacular of wsb. But anyway, I bought a small amount of LMAOU today because I think there is a chance it becomes a meme stock once the units split and LMAO starts trading (LMFAO Sponsor; LMFAOLOLROFL), and if I understand spacs correctly the downside is limited.

 

Not advice I barely understand anything about this market.

[DooDiligence]

I'm thinking about buying a little Fairfax.

Seems more satisfying than fapping.

 

You're doing it wrong.

 

Fair point, I just don't want to go blind hodling myself.

[username]

I'm thinking about buying a little Fairfax.

Seems more satisfying than fapping.

 

You're doing it wrong.

 

Fair point, I just don't want to go blind hodling myself.

Goggles can protect you from chemical splash.

[DooDiligence]

I'm thinking about buying a little Fairfax.

Seems more satisfying than fapping.

 

You're doing it wrong.

 

Fair point, I just don't want to go blind hodling myself.

Goggles can protect you from chemical splash.

 

;D

 

This thread is turning out better than I expected.

Thanks for the tip (that's what she said).

[DooDiligence]

Tootsie keeps rolling up (on a down day).

 

I'm an idiot for not doing something with my own idea?