Arski Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 So, I'm in a kind of investing team and its tradition to take part in an investing competition: Flow Traders. We want of course to win but we need a company with a catalyst within 4 months to have to chance of winning. Stocks, options and turbo's are aloud and the return is measured on a risk-adjusted basis, which is calculated with the volatility of an investment. Maybe someone has a nice suggestion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Gamestop because Roaring Kitty may buy $5mm any given day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Fairfax - Q1 earnings to show how they monetized their BB position during the recent spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Fairfax - Q1 earnings to show how they monetized their BB position during the recent spike. Beat me to it. But not even really regarding BB. Just the MTM on their equity portfolio should be enough even if they didn't lock in BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Totally agree. Fairfax - Q1 earnings to show how they monetized their BB position during the recent spike. Beat me to it. But not even really regarding BB. Just the MTM on their equity portfolio should be enough even if they didn't lock in BB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santayana Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 May not even need to wait for Q1 earnings with Fairfax. I think the annual report is going to talk quite a bit about some of their recent actions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueventures Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 For a more speculative play, AQMS. Sustainably focused battery recycling company that switched to an asset-light licensing model. Expected to sign its first licensing contract shortly. Recently paid off all debt and has a comfortable cash position. Similar situation as Anterix (ATEX), which spiked 50% upon signing its first contract to provide spectrum in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratiman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 DTEA will clear up its leases with in the next few weeks. Headed over $10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Fairfax - Q1 earnings to show how they monetized their BB position during the recent spike. Beat me to it. But not even really regarding BB. Just the MTM on their equity portfolio should be enough even if they didn't lock in BB. Agreed. My math says the Fairfax equity holdings are up about $60/share (pre- tax) since Jan 1 (after the big sell off today). Of this about $25/share is mark to market and $35/share are equity accounted (not mark to market). And based on what we saw with Q4 equity gains, my numbers miss a bunch of stuff (so they are likely low). I think the release of the FFH Annual Report March 15 might also be a catalyst. Prem said on the Q4 conference call that they would be providing additional disclosure around the equity holdings as he felt investors did not understand/appreciate the value of the equity holdings. If this highlights value that is not currently well understood by Mr Market this should help the share price. Especially the analyst community who appear to pretty much ignore Fairfax’s equity holdings in their analysis. This could lead to upwards revisions for Q1 earnings in March as it becomes more clear Fairfax will be booking substantial gains in their equity portfolio. The completion of the IPO’s of both Farmers Edge and Boat Rocker next week will also help unearth value that Mr Market is missing. We also should get the closure of the Riverstone UK sale in the next couple of weeks which will provide Fairfax with the funds to pay off the revolver (greatly improve their debt profile). Yes, this is a known transaction but it is important and will be good to complete If they actually monetized BB that will just be icing on the cake (and yes, it would cause shares to spike depending on the specifics). And i do not think Fairfax is done with on the ‘monetization’ front. My guess is we will be getting more announcements in the next month or two. Nice to see Fairfax once again playing Edmonton Oiler (Gretzky) offense instead of Chris Chelios (beat the sh*t out of the other guy) defense :-) Much more fun to watch as a shareholder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 In addition to Fairfax, there's also Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett's letter comes out this weekend along with the annual report and disclosure of buyback activity. This thread has guesses on recent buybacks: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/4q20-buyback/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COBFInfinity Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I can't believe no one has suggested GSE preferreds! SCOTUS case decision will come in less than 4 months and the market is not pricing in anything positive at all. So I say FNMAL is your pick. Current volatility is low, but will go up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Also, according to the Fannie Mae thread, there may be a catalyst as soon as April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arski Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 Also, according to the Fannie Mae thread, there may be a catalyst as soon as April Very interesting. But looks like something with uncertainty I can't judge accurately, so will throw it in my too hard pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Gamestop because Roaring Kitty may buy $5mm any given day! Looks like the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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