10 Year Treasury Yield Projections For Summer & Fall?

[wescobrk]

Does anyone think I'm crazy if I think 2% is the ceiling for 10 year Treasuries? At least until October.

Powell didn't comment today but I would think he would start jawing the 10 year down if it hits 2%. That will affect mortgage rates, equity market, Spacs, ipo's, in short, I don't see the market sell off lasting much longer but this is merely a guess. We are already seeing some effect at 1.6.

 

Once the Fed actually starts raising rates in 2024 then a huge sell off starting in 2022 or 2023 seems more plausible but maybe I'm way off.

I guess we will see in the coming months.

 

Maybe in 2022 or 2023 it hits 3 or 4% like Dudley thinks but I don't see how it hits that yield and stays there.

 

How fast can United States GDP sustainably grow once the government starts raising rates and STOPS issuing multi trillion "stimulus" payments?

 

My guess is the same it has since 2010 about 2% real which means a 3 or 4% 10 year seem high.

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[TwoCitiesCapital]

I generally agree. I'm not buying bonds hand over fist, but have started rolling my short-term bonds funds to intermediate and long-term allocations as I don't think interest rates can go much higher sustainably.

[Junto]

My target for end of 2021 has been 2% on the 10 yr.

 

There’s not going to be runaway inflation but definitely persistent push higher. Myopic view on jobs numbers doesn’t take into effect the amount of people choosing not to work because of government subsidies, lack of daycare, lack of school, and government mandated business curtailments.

 

Until government releases executive orders on businesses in line with Texas and others, jobs numbers will not return but they don’t have to in order to have a strong and growing economy. Last I checked, hospitality doesn’t drive the US economy.