Ray Dalio The Changing World Order

[Krapdivad]

Has anyone read the series "The Changing World Order" by Ray Dalio on his linkedin page? https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/

 

An extremely thorough analysis on previous cycles of empires/countries and how they've risen and fallen, and where we are now.

Dalio says the US is basically in its decline phase in the big cycle (approximately 75% +/-10% of the entire cycle). America has had the longest cycle so far at 245 years. The likely new order will be China, who owns the most foreign reserves.

 

He paints a somewhat frightening picture of past transitions of the old to the new order. Increasing debt, and inability to stimulate the economy, and losing the status of the world reserve currency leading to civil wars between the rich and poor and eventual demise of the old order. However, he suggests it can be done more thoughtfully and peacefully.

 

Reading some of Dalio's ideas makes me wonder what affect this will have and how I can position myself to prepare for a potential downturn. Perhaps bitcoin will be a big part of a defensive portfolio. I haven't read these fully... it's a somewhat intimidating amount of dense material.

[Jurgis]

If China takes over, bitcoin is not going to save you.

CCP is gonna nuke bitcoin as soon as yuan is the reserve currency.

 

You cannot position yourself for global (civil) wars.

Well, you can move to New Zealand, but even they will be affected ultimately.

 

On the positive side, most likely nothing disastrous will happen in the next 10 years.

 

And anyone who tells you that they can predict what will happen after 10 years is selling you pipe dreams. © Philip Tetlock

 

Actually Tetlock said "5 years", but I'm gonna be generous.

 

This message is likely going to self destruct in ...

[scorpioncapital]

even 10 years i wouldn't be so sure is predictable )

[SharperDingaan]

It's more about the size of the consumer market, and it's ability to consume.

 

China has the most people at 454M (2017), followed by Brazil, India, and the US (325M). However, the US dominated forever because it had a big market, that ALSO had the discretionary income to spend - and multiples of times more people than the next nearest rivals with similar ability. Globalization made poorer countries richer - wealth & industriousness have given China's consumers discretionary income; at 1.4x the number of people, with rising vs falling (US) discretionary income, they are knocking the US off the roost. Particularly aggravating as until recently, the bulk of goods have been built to American consumer tastes. You can't just build more to flood the China market - 'cause you're building the WRONG goods.

 

Good thing overall, as the vigorous competition forces both cultures to continually adapt and 'breathe'. Time continually moves on, if your solution is to simply put your culture in a bottle - you end up similar to the Amish/Mennonites. Conflicts resulted because ambitious  men (usually) at 'the top', saw an opportunity to exploit it. Today, we have much less damaging solutions to that.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

if I were a client of Bridgewater, I would worry more about their performance than the change in world order.

[rolling]

And the opposite view of things:

 

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=bba991dfd7

 

Note: this is just a post from the blog. There are many more and a few books. I'm currently finishing the latest one.

[Ross812]

It's more about the size of the consumer market, and it's ability to consume.

 

China has the most people at 454M (2017), followed by Brazil, India, and the US (325M). However, the US dominated forever because it had a big market, that ALSO had the discretionary income to spend - and multiples of times more people than the next nearest rivals with similar ability. Globalization made poorer countries richer - wealth & industriousness have given China's consumers discretionary income; at 1.4x the number of people, with rising vs falling (US) discretionary income, they are knocking the US off the roost. Particularly aggravating as until recently, the bulk of goods have been built to American consumer tastes. You can't just build more to flood the China market - 'cause you're building the WRONG goods.

 

Good thing overall, as the vigorous competition forces both cultures to continually adapt and 'breathe'. Time continually moves on, if your solution is to simply put your culture in s bottle - you end up similar to the Amish/Mennonites. Conflicts resulted because ambitious  men (usually) at 'the top', saw an opportunity to exploit it. Today, we have much less damaging solutions to that.

 

SD

 

 

Maybe I am not understanding your point, but don't China and India have almost 1.4B population each?

[SharperDingaan]

Number of annual active consumers across Alibaba's online shopping properties from 4th quarter 2015 to 4th quarter 2020

https://www.statista.com/statistics/226927/alibaba-cumulative-active-online-buyers-taobao-tmall/

As at Q2 2017 it was 454M - as at Q4 2020? 779M.

 

Then look at what Chinese Consumers consume, and compare it to the US.

www.credit-suisse.com › media › assets

CSRI Special Report: The Chinese Consumer in 2017.

 

Hardly surprising the world order is in flux.

 

SD