KSU - Kansas City Southern

[n.r98]

Share price pop has receded probably due to $CN's falling share price.

Any railroad experts here who can provide insight on whether the M&A takeover of $KSU by $CN will be allowed by regulators?

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overwhelming-support-continues-gain-momentum-111300467.html

Edited April 29, 2021 by n.r98

[Cigarbutt]

Not an expert but here's a humble take.

The key for CN is to try to get the STB to use pre-2001 rules that happened as a result of the attempted CN-BNSF merger (mostly end-to-end but combining two large class I railways). So, they must gather enough support and it looks tricky. Comparing with the CP merger, CN has a lot more overlapping lines. STB and other regulators (Canadian and Mexican) may ask to use post-2001 rules where CN has to demonstrate (they have the burden of proof) that their offer will not impact competition and will not cause merger-related service limitations to customers.

Competition and market concentration regulators have been quite lenient overall in the last few years but, for railway concentration, it's been established that economies of scale have reached their limits a while ago during the consolidating phase and there is a concern that what may be achieved with the combination of larger class I railways is mostly improved pricing power. In all likelihood, the process for CN looks more complicated and may take longer to achieve.

If interested in the 2001 rules, see below:

https://www.stb.gov/Decisions/readingroom.nsf/WEBUNID/A61B4059046BBC1B85256A55004D6D97?OpenDocument