BP (ADR)

[nodnub]

No doubt then you are familiar with the historical irony that it was actually the abolitionists/anit-slavery crowd that didn't want slaves to count at all while slave owners thought they should have full representation.

 

I don't think there is anything ironic about that. The slaves still weren't allowed to vote (that didn't come until 83 years later). The slave owners were clearly acting in their own interests.

 

wikipedia:

 

"three-fifths of the population of slaves would be counted for enumeration purposes regarding both the distribution of taxes and the apportionment of the members of the United States House of Representatives. It was proposed by delegates James Wilson and Roger Sherman.

 

Delegates opposed to slavery generally wished to count only the free inhabitants of each state. Delegates supportive of slavery, on the other hand, generally wanted to count slaves in their actual numbers. Since slaves could not vote, slaveholders would thus have the benefit of increased representation in the House and the Electoral College. "

[Sea Island]

I understand Myth's point to be about the idea of a human perosn vs. their voting rights.

 

Either way, BP just took it in the throat from the U.S. govt. Based on prior posts regarding the role of governement in the market, do you all view this as a bullish sign that BP just put a $20 billion down payment on what will be an endless stream of claims?

[Myth465]

Sea Island

 

Thats why I am so bearish on BP, I think we can all agree that the Government excels at spending money, and that their is no one better at spending other peoples money.

 

BP has the Local, Federal, and State government writing blank checks on their behalf. Want man made islands, sure send BP the bill, get 5400 boats down here and give BP the bill. They are financing direct and indirect people harmed by this, every museum, hotel, fisherman, gas station, pretty much any business which experienced a slow down is looking to be compensated. The government doesn't want these people nickle and dimed, and is bringing in outside claims people.

 

Fishermen would have made $5000 in 2 days during busy season. BP gave them $5000 a month, what do you think the Feds will give these people.

 

BP cant be expected to handle the claims, but the Government has no incentive to really hold costs down. Its a horrible situation for BP. This is just a down payment, and they will likely be paying to restore the gulf (including prior damage, they didnt cause).

 

BP is like GM, it will be run for the people of the gulf. The Government will try to suck them try without breaking them, and then will likely discard them if its politically expedite (not allowing them to drill their leases due to safety record).

 

A horrible position for a company to be in, but one BP deserves. I wouldn't want to be an owner of such a business. Think about when the investigations show that this was a man made screw up to shave off a few millions / drilling days. The uproar will reignite again and again, beach after beach, after every major company closure, or hearing.

 

Sucks to be them. Sucks to be their owners, might be ok to be their bond holders.

 

People looking at a BS are getting the wrong idea, and have been wrong at every turn. Strong company, strong balancesheet, will hold the dividend, blah blah blah. 5k barrels, to 20k barrels, to 60k barrels, to XX. All surprises negative so far.

 

What happens if Simmons is even half right and the casing is blown off? What happens if the relief well doesn't work? What happens if the spill rate is 100k barrels a day (with full clean up costs, EPA fines by the barrel, and the Feds spending your CF). I am guessing the Gov agreed to allow them to drill in the future, and thats why the got the $20 billion, but too many known unknowns.

[Sea Island]

Well put, and remember the GM bond holders.

[ERICOPOLY]

Fact:

Thomas Jefferson lost the election to John Adams if you take away the slaves' 3/5 vote.

 

Gee, I wonder why there were so many Southern presidents!

[opihiman2]

Interesting comments from Ken Peak, CEO of Contango Oil (he is one of my favorite CEO):

 

“There are two areas that give me great concern. The first is the concept of unlimited environmental liability for a spill, or a limit so high that a debt-free company with an approximate $1.0 billion market cap like Contango is in essence, asked to “bet the Company” every time we drill a well.

 

 

Translation:  It's only fair that somebody else pays the costs if I make a mistake.  Just let me keep all the profits!

 

I'm liking what Obama said tonight -- it's time we accept the external costs of our fossil fuel society and get serious about finding new energy sources.

 

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

[ERICOPOLY]

Interesting comments from Ken Peak, CEO of Contango Oil (he is one of my favorite CEO):

 

“There are two areas that give me great concern. The first is the concept of unlimited environmental liability for a spill, or a limit so high that a debt-free company with an approximate $1.0 billion market cap like Contango is in essence, asked to “bet the Company” every time we drill a well.

 

 

Translation:  It's only fair that somebody else pays the costs if I make a mistake.  Just let me keep all the profits!

 

I'm liking what Obama said tonight -- it's time we accept the external costs of our fossil fuel society and get serious about finding new energy sources.

 

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

 

I suppose he was also the latest in a long line of presidents to promise a government health care plan:

 

http://modern-us-history.suite101.com/article.cfm/us_presidents_and_healthcare_reform

 

But who was the first to get something done?

[opihiman2]

Interesting comments from Ken Peak, CEO of Contango Oil (he is one of my favorite CEO):

 

“There are two areas that give me great concern. The first is the concept of unlimited environmental liability for a spill, or a limit so high that a debt-free company with an approximate $1.0 billion market cap like Contango is in essence, asked to “bet the Company” every time we drill a well.

 

 

Translation:  It's only fair that somebody else pays the costs if I make a mistake.  Just let me keep all the profits!

 

I'm liking what Obama said tonight -- it's time we accept the external costs of our fossil fuel society and get serious about finding new energy sources.

 

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

 

I suppose he was also the latest in a long line of presidents to promise a government health care plan:

 

http://modern-us-history.suite101.com/article.cfm/us_presidents_and_healthcare_reform

 

But who was the first to get something done?

 

Didn't mean to make this a political debate.  Let's just say I'll believe it when I see it. 

[ERICOPOLY]

Interesting comments from Ken Peak, CEO of Contango Oil (he is one of my favorite CEO):

 

“There are two areas that give me great concern. The first is the concept of unlimited environmental liability for a spill, or a limit so high that a debt-free company with an approximate $1.0 billion market cap like Contango is in essence, asked to “bet the Company” every time we drill a well.

 

 

Translation:  It's only fair that somebody else pays the costs if I make a mistake.  Just let me keep all the profits!

 

I'm liking what Obama said tonight -- it's time we accept the external costs of our fossil fuel society and get serious about finding new energy sources.

 

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

 

I suppose he was also the latest in a long line of presidents to promise a government health care plan:

 

http://modern-us-history.suite101.com/article.cfm/us_presidents_and_healthcare_reform

 

But who was the first to get something done?

 

Didn't mean to make this a political debate.  Let's just say I'll believe it when I see it. 

 

I agree with you.  I don't however think he is insincere, but I do think he is relatively powerless.  One of his responsibilities though as chief executive is to attempt to bring the people to the table to discuss the problem.  You can't do that without opening your mouth to state what the challenges are. 

[Packer16]

He may have been the first to legislate but given the evidence I have seen so far - increasing rates for health insurance (more than in previous years), out-of-network doctors increasing quickly and no solution to the community rating issue (firms above 50 folks are on their own) - I think the outcome in the end is far from assured.  Rather than take small step to get people comfortable with making their own economic choices (like HSAs) the gov't controlled approach is going to lead to the gov't rationing of care, a compromise that may work in Europe and Canada but will have resistance in the US.  In the US you need to let the folks make the decisions (even though they may result in the same answer), if you do not you will get the backlash that is now occurring and will grow with each issue that is dealt with in this way.  Folks in the US do not like autocrats no matter how correct they may be.

 

Packer

[ERICOPOLY]

Folks in the US do not like autocrats no matter how correct they may be.

 

Packer

 

This is true.

[ERICOPOLY]

 

Eric - I agree with you and may take up business as a wild catter, one could really game the system unless they make serious changes to tackle this issue. I love how free market types simply want to entrust other people's lives and lively hood to the market. I think its ok because they dont live off the gulf or near the nuke plant.

 

 

The only thing I really know about the mentality of wildcatting is what I learned from a book I read in January, The Big Rich.  It was a very entertaining story about the Bass/Murchison/Richardson/Hunt families.  These guys typically had no education, some were cattle traders.  They'd somehow convince people to back them and then go drill.  If they missed, they blew the entire wad of cash (not their cash anyhow).  But if they hit it right, they'd become the richest men in America (they did).  They just think differently about risk, especially when it's not their own money on the line.  I guess it's kind of like speculating in real estate with somebody else's money as a down payment and the banks' money -- makes sense to do it if you can.  And people would give them the money as a get-rich-quick lottery ticket.  Generally speaking they weren't really being rewarded for inventing anything new -- rather, just taking something out of the ground.  There are many people in society that could have done what they did, but they were there first and got the money.  Sort of silly the way the market rewards some people extremely well for essentially gambling.  Particularly interesting is the societal impacts of allocating billions of dollars to essentially ignorant people -- they seem to be responsible for funding the religious conservatives in America.  This at least woke me up to the reality that some people believe dinosaurs coexisted with humans -- without them, I doubt I would have ever run across such people.  What would we do without them?  It's very different than what happens when Bill Gates gets allocated the capital.

[opihiman2]

He may have been the first to legislate but given the evidence I have seen so far - increasing rates for health insurance (more than in previous years), out-of-network doctors increasing quickly and no solution to the community rating issue (firms above 50 folks are on their own) - I think the outcome in the end is far from assured.  Rather than take small step to get people comfortable with making their own economic choices (like HSAs) the gov't controlled approach is going to lead to the gov't rationing of care, a compromise that may work in Europe and Canada but will have resistance in the US.  In the US you need to let the folks make the decisions (even though they may result in the same answer), if you do not you will get the backlash that is now occurring and will grow with each issue that is dealt with in this way.  Folks in the US do not like autocrats no matter how correct they may be.

 

Packer

 

Also, there is not much in the Bill that addresses exponentially increasing health care costs.  Regardless, it's a step in a direction.

[Myth465]

Folks in the US do not like autocrats no matter how correct they may be.

 

Packer

 

This is true.

 

Honestly this is the best argument I have heard against health-care. It drops all the ideology and gets to the root of the issue. I was talking to a more liberal friend, and he thought that the death panels would be real and that care would be rationed. I told him you don't really have a choice and would have to put some limits on what people get done or the whole system would go bankrupt. He was livid and he is pro socialized medicine.

 

I think you have a good point and this will be the biggest problem for the government.

 

 

[Sea Island]

the whole system is economically bankrupt from the beginning: please see every other nation with socialized medicine as en example. It is also intellectually bankrupt as you cannot redistribute endlessly: see EU and Greece

[Sea Island]

also medicare and social security in the U.S.

[nodnub]

the whole system is economically bankrupt from the beginning: please see every other nation with socialized medicine as en example. It is also intellectually bankrupt as you cannot redistribute endlessly: see EU and Greece

also medicare and social security in the U.S.

 

Canada has socialized medicine and it looks like they have also have a fully funded social security program.

 

These systems are not necessarily bankrupt from the beginning... For example social security: keep it funded, keep reserves, and keep the benefits/promises to retirees in line with reasonable expectation of incoming funds.

[Sea Island]

 

The leading Canadian newspaper, the Globe and Mail, reports that "critics say that the clinics are taking physicians away from the public system making it even harder…to find a family doctor." David Eggen, executive director of a group that supports the Canadian socialized system, Friends of Medicare, said that it's already hard to find a family physician in Canada and that clinics like these, springing up in several Canadian cities, could make it even harder.

 

It does not seem to have occurred to defenders of socialized medicine that the system itself is causing the doctor shortage. Cuts in medical fees, overcrowding of facilities, shortages of equipment and space, and bureaucratic oversight have all combined to drive men and women out of family medical practice. Now, with a critical shortage looming, those who can afford to pay for adequate care are opting out of the public system and, literally, taking their lives into their own hands.

 

But it is illegal to make patients "have to pay a fee to gain access to health services" that are provided free by the government system. So patients and doctors are forming membership-only groups to avoid the legal penalties that could potential stop them from getting or giving the care that they need.

[ERICOPOLY]

Well, is Australia bankrupt?

[Sea Island]

The U.S. has more uninsured illegal aliens than Australia has citizens

[Myth465]

Its funny, either you are against something or for it. We can debate the merits of either system, but once one is selected you have to continually make tweaks to make it viable.

 

Private enterprise / systems go bankrupt all the time unless tweaks are made to business plans. The systems are not going bankrupt because they are inherently flawed. They are going bankrupt because of the reason everything goes bankrupt. Its underfunded.

 

SSI should probably be means tested and the retirement age raised. Medicare - people should either bite the bullet and pay for it, or parts of it should be cut.

 

The U.S. has more uninsured illegal aliens than Australia has citizens

 

This is pretty funny though. Lol

[ERICOPOLY]

Interesting.  However my suspicion has always been that they hold down costs by deregulating the clothing on the beaches, effectively communal breast examinations.

[Sea Island]

Illegal aliens?

[ERICOPOLY]

Illegal aliens?

 

No, the Australians.  I thought everyone was aware of this custom.

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Is BP responsible for the spilled methane damage too?

 

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012150009_apusgulfoilspill.html