MSFT

[txlaw]

Two articles to read for people interested in the "post-PC" era:

 

http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/05/intel-defends-pc-goes-all-in-on-ulv-and-speeds-up-moores-law.ars

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/2011/05/the-post-pc-era-is-happening-but-not-yet-at-the-expense-of-pcs.ars

 

It would also be worthwhile taking a look at INTC's presentation, which was filed with the SEC yesterday, and Brian Gladden's interview on the DellShares blog and on CNBC today.

[txlaw]

Which of the other beat up cheap large caps do you like?

 

Many of the ones discussed on this board. ;)

[Myth465]

Which of the other beat up cheap large caps do you like?

 

Many of the ones discussed on this board. ;)

 

LOL.

 

I was looking through an intel powerpoint presentation last night. Someone was kind enough to email it to me. The first thing I thought to myself was perhaps I am making this much harder then it seems or needs to be. I need to look at things with the same eye I looked at WDC.....

 

I also listened to a WDC presentation last night, which said the same thing. Tablets are largely additional devices or toys. They arent replacing PCs, and may replace a few laptops when the user has a main desktop. The numbers on the Intel presentation and WDC presentation are mind boggling. Where was this realization when LVLT was $1. Sign....

 

Also made me feel better about my Primus warrants.

 

[Cardboard]

Again on DELL, I can't believe how smart are the analysts... These guys have beaten their average estimates by 6.7%, 36.4%, 43.2% and 25.0% respectively in the last 4 quarters.

 

Stock down today. Go figure!

 

Cardboard

[txlaw]

Again on DELL, I can't believe how smart are the analysts... These guys have beaten their average estimates by 6.7%, 36.4%, 43.2% and 25.0% respectively in the last 4 quarters.

 

Stock down today. Go figure!

 

Cardboard

 

Perhaps they realize how wrong they and their firms have been, and are now trying to save some face by arguing that more time is needed to definitively show that a "turnaround" is occurring.

[goldfinger]

Again on DELL, I can't believe how smart are the analysts... These guys have beaten their average estimates by 6.7%, 36.4%, 43.2% and 25.0% respectively in the last 4 quarters.

 

Stock down today. Go figure!

 

Cardboard

 

Eventually money talks!

[ERICOPOLY]

Look what they are saying about HPQ:  

 

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Worries-About-Tomorrow-Sink-Hewlett-Packard-Today-HPQ-IBM-DELL-CSCO-EMC0519.aspx?partner=YahooSA

 

Even if the company can't grow much more than 1%, it looks no worse than fairly priced

 

Fairly priced at $36 with non-GAAP EPS of $5 given a scenario of 1% growth?  Since when did fair price for the components of the DOW imply earnings yield of 13.9% under the expectation of growth instead of decline?

 

 

 

 

 

[goldfinger]

Look what they are saying about HPQ:  

 

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Worries-About-Tomorrow-Sink-Hewlett-Packard-Today-HPQ-IBM-DELL-CSCO-EMC0519.aspx?partner=YahooSA

 

Even if the company can't grow much more than 1%, it looks no worse than fairly priced

 

Fairly priced at $36 with non-GAAP EPS of $5 given a scenario of 1% growth?  Since when did fair price for the components of the DOW imply earnings yield of 13.9% under the expectation of growth instead of decline?

 

 

 

 

 

 

If HPQ gets to 7$ earnings per share by 2014 (and as you commented they need almost no growth to get there if current buybacks continue) we would be at a PE of 5!

If one reviews earnings by division at HP and listens to Leo's plans, we are not talking about restructuring things or whatever. We are talking about putting focus on higher value added products at the service division and ramping up cloud efforts. Technologies and infrastructure to get there already exist at HP.

Many analysts that had a 50+ price target on the stock simply say: hey it still is a very good business but I still downgrade it to 40 or so (so that I fit with the rest of the street).

[biaggio]

Microsoft Using Free Xbox to Spur PC Sales, But Will it Work?

 

 

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/11/05/1098342/microsoft-using-free-xbox-to-spur-pc-sales-but-will-it-work#ixzz1MpxQ7P4v

 

 

Starting May 22, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will begin giving away free Xbox 360 consoles (the $200 four-gig version) to students who spend $699 or more on a new Windows PC. According to Mashable, this deal – which will be available at Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), the Microsoft Store, Dell.com (NASDAQ: DELL), and HP.com (NYSE: HPQ) – was announced on the Windows Blog today.

 

 

Interesting. My kids are Mac fans, but if their x box broke, then their parent maybe interested in this deal. 

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Look what they are saying about HPQ:  

 

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Worries-About-Tomorrow-Sink-Hewlett-Packard-Today-HPQ-IBM-DELL-CSCO-EMC0519.aspx?partner=YahooSA

 

Even if the company can't grow much more than 1%, it looks no worse than fairly priced

 

Fairly priced at $36 with non-GAAP EPS of $5 given a scenario of 1% growth?  Since when did fair price for the components of the DOW imply earnings yield of 13.9% under the expectation of growth instead of decline?

 

 

 

 

 

 

If HPQ gets to 7$ earnings per share by 2014 (and as you commented they need almost no growth to get there if current buybacks continue) we would be at a PE of 5!

If one reviews earnings by division at HP and listens to Leo's plans, we are not talking about restructuring things or whatever. We are talking about putting focus on higher value added products at the service division and ramping up cloud efforts. Technologies and infrastructure to get there already exist at HP.

Many analysts that had a 50+ price target on the stock simply say: hey it still is a very good business but I still downgrade it to 40 or so (so that I fit with the rest of the street).

 

Taking the March 2009 bottom of $25 and adding in earnings for 2009,2010, and 2011 (projected), one arrives at roughly the present stock price.  This is a funny market.

 

It first hit the $36 price level 13 years ago.  There are probably some board members in first grade back then?

[tombgrt]

Look what they are saying about HPQ:  

 

http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Worries-About-Tomorrow-Sink-Hewlett-Packard-Today-HPQ-IBM-DELL-CSCO-EMC0519.aspx?partner=YahooSA

 

Even if the company can't grow much more than 1%, it looks no worse than fairly priced

 

Fairly priced at $36 with non-GAAP EPS of $5 given a scenario of 1% growth?  Since when did fair price for the components of the DOW imply earnings yield of 13.9% under the expectation of growth instead of decline?

 

 

 

 

 

 

If HPQ gets to 7$ earnings per share by 2014 (and as you commented they need almost no growth to get there if current buybacks continue) we would be at a PE of 5!

If one reviews earnings by division at HP and listens to Leo's plans, we are not talking about restructuring things or whatever. We are talking about putting focus on higher value added products at the service division and ramping up cloud efforts. Technologies and infrastructure to get there already exist at HP.

Many analysts that had a 50+ price target on the stock simply say: hey it still is a very good business but I still downgrade it to 40 or so (so that I fit with the rest of the street).

 

Taking the March 2009 bottom of $25 and adding in earnings for 2009,2010, and 2011 (projected), one arrives at roughly the present stock price.  This is a funny market.

 

It first hit the $36 price level 13 years ago.  There are probably some board members in first grade back then?

 

I was 8.  ;D

 

Funny market indeed!

[Kraven]

Add in the Linked In IPO and it is just like it was 13 years ago!  Those were crazy times.  Everyone was so earnest in their desire to change the world, one parking ticket.com at a time.

[tombgrt]

Interesting facts I just noticed today :

 

- MSFT is one of the 30 companies at market cap of 50m+ that shows up in the magic formula stock screener, that is very rare for 200b company (with considerable moat). Also, the second biggest company in that list has a market cap of only 11b and the third 5.5b. After that it's all under 2b. Food for thought?

 

- dataroma.com shows MSFT is the stock that is owned most by professional value investors, was bought most last quarter and the last 6 months.

[ERICOPOLY]

I have a theory backed by nothing but suspicion:

 

Large cap tech is doing poorly because tech fund managers are chasing the small cap "cloud" stocks.  I suppose it's a matter of waiting for them to find those valuations too scary before they come back to large caps.  Meanwhile, the large cap stocks are growing EPS at a faster pace due to the share buybacks (this will in turn perhaps be the catalyst to beat EPS targets).

 

[txlaw]

Large cap tech is doing poorly because tech fund managers are chasing the small cap "cloud" stocks.  I suppose it's a matter of waiting for them to find those valuations too scary before they come back to large caps. 

 

This is as good a theory as any.  It makes no sense what's going on in the market right now.

[Myth465]

So when they get crushed they will move into MSFT.

 

Long MSFT and GOOG, short CRM? Not bad if you think the crushing is around the corner.

 

 

What was the catalyst for the 2000 tech crash, what caused the run for the doors?

[goldfinger]

I have a theory backed by nothing but suspicion:

 

Large cap tech is doing poorly because tech fund managers are chasing the small cap "cloud" stocks.  I suppose it's a matter of waiting for them to find those valuations too scary before they come back to large caps.  Meanwhile, the large cap stocks are growing EPS at a faster pace due to the share buybacks (this will in turn perhaps be the catalyst to beat EPS targets).

 

GMO made a study recently and concluded that small to mid caps are wildly overvalued.

[ERICOPOLY]

I have a theory backed by nothing but suspicion:

 

Large cap tech is doing poorly because tech fund managers are chasing the small cap "cloud" stocks.  I suppose it's a matter of waiting for them to find those valuations too scary before they come back to large caps.  Meanwhile, the large cap stocks are growing EPS at a faster pace due to the share buybacks (this will in turn perhaps be the catalyst to beat EPS targets).

 

GMO made a study recently and concluded that small to mid caps are wildly overvalued.

 

I have in the money puts on IWM.  I figure I'll make money both on my large cap positions as well as on that hedge.  MSFT, DELL, HPQ -- the P/E are 1/2 of that index.

[20ppy]

"What was the catalyst for the 2000 tech crash, what caused the run for the doors?"

 

1. Nasdaq was very richly valued

2. The presidential election uncertainty/impasse

3. Then 911.

[leftcoast]

What was the catalyst for the 2000 tech crash, what caused the run for the doors?

 

IIRC, the catalyst was actually the outcome of Microsoft's antitrust case. The bubble burst coincided with a federal court decision that MSFT a monopoly.

 

I don't think that piece of trivia is particularly useful in predicting the future, though. Don't they say "value is its own catalyst"? I think the same goes for overvaluation.

[ERICOPOLY]

What was the catalyst for the 2000 tech crash, what caused the run for the doors?

 

IIRC, the catalyst was actually the outcome of Microsoft's antitrust case. The bubble burst coincided with a federal court decision that MSFT a monopoly.

 

I don't think that piece of trivia is particularly useful in predicting the future, though. Don't they say "value is its own catalyst"? I think the same goes for overvaluation.

 

I remember that day well.  The valuations unraveled quickly after Judge Penfield Jackson ruled to break up the company.

[goldfinger]

I have a theory backed by nothing but suspicion:

 

Large cap tech is doing poorly because tech fund managers are chasing the small cap "cloud" stocks.  I suppose it's a matter of waiting for them to find those valuations too scary before they come back to large caps.  Meanwhile, the large cap stocks are growing EPS at a faster pace due to the share buybacks (this will in turn perhaps be the catalyst to beat EPS targets).

 

GMO made a study recently and concluded that small to mid caps are wildly overvalued.

You just names my three darlings!

 

I have in the money puts on IWM.  I figure I'll make money both on my large cap positions as well as on that hedge.  MSFT, DELL, HPQ -- the P/E are 1/2 of that index.

[ERICOPOLY]

You just names my three darlings!

 

I whittled down my initial list of tech large cap to those three, after first getting excited about a much larger bunch of them.  I like GOOG and APPLE, but they need to double if not triple earnings just to get to where HPQ is today.  I'd rather already be there.

[goldfinger]

You just names my three darlings!

 

I whittled down my initial list of tech large cap to those three, after first getting excited about a much larger bunch of them.  I like GOOG and APPLE, but they need to double if not triple earnings just to get to where HPQ is today.  I'd rather already be there.

 

It seems we both like cheap girls! ;D

[tombgrt]

Does anyone have an idea how revenue percentages are split up for MSFT outside the USA?

 

I know 58% of revenue comes from the USA (part II note 22 in latest 10-K) but I want to know how that 42% is split up. If possible I would also like to know what the growth rates of the PC market is in each major country (say countries with 5%+ of total revenue).