BYD

[AJB96]

I've been following BYD since 2008 and I posted an investment write up on my web site:

 

http://alexbossert.blogspot.com/2010/07/wang-chuanfu-has-been-called-thomas.html

 

Enjoy,

 

Alex

[nodnub]

I've been following BYD since 2008 and I posted an investment write up on my web site:

 

http://alexbossert.blogspot.com/2010/07/wang-chuanfu-has-been-called-thomas.html

 

Enjoy,

 

Alex

 

thanks alex, that is a great collection of anecdotes and facts.  very interesting.

[link01]

excellent job, alex.

 

i actually came across your website just a few days ago afer googling BYDD to see whether i could find an investment case for it

[txlaw]

I saw that article on gurufocus, Alex.  Very nice.

 

I'd also recommend that people take a look at Shai Dardashti et al's website to get more info on BYD.

 

There are only two companies that I believe are worthy of being true Phil Fisher stocks to be held onto for a long time.  BYD is one of those companies.

[Guest Bronco]

Txlaw - you know the obvious question is what do you think the other one is?

 

My guess is BRK, if there is a prize involved.

[txlaw]

Txlaw - you know the obvious question is what do you think the other one is?

 

My guess is BRK, if there is a prize involved.

 

Well, I would hold BRK and several other stocks (like KO, for example) for the long term, but I don't consider those Phil Fisher stocks. 

 

I'm talking about growth companies that would pass Fisher's test under his Fifteen Points analysis.  See http://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/course.asp?docId=145662&page=3&CN=com .

 

Any guesses after reading those 15 points?

[abyli]

APPLE?

[Guest Bronco]

Apple is a good guess.  Are there any other growth companies on the planet?

[Guest valueInv]

There are many growth companies but none that I see at a reasonable valuation or that are public.

Companies I would be a much lower prices: VMWare, Saleforce.

 

Private companies who are poised for a great future: Facebook, FourSquare, Twitter, GroupOn,  and many more.

[alpha231616967560]

EBIX - they meet all requirements as far as I can tell.

[RRJ]

I saw that article on gurufocus, Alex.  Very nice.

 

I'd also recommend that people take a look at Shai Dardashti et al's website to get more info on BYD.

 

There are only two companies that I believe are worthy of being true Phil Fisher stocks to be held onto for a long time.  BYD is one of those companies.

 

I had a similar take on BYD -- seems like that rare Fisher stock to me.  I also have thought a lot about a speech Munger gives where he suggests that finding that one promising approach to investing that he and Buffett had not done, but he considered promising, was to "find that one in a million entrepreneur early."  Munger said if he was a younger man he might well take that approach, and considered it a valid one if used super selectively.  I think Wang Chuanfu might be such a person.  Like a Sam Walton or Bill Gates (or Warren Buffett) type, that is just in the right place at the right time, with extremely rare talent to grow a business from a small to a super large stage.  I would point out that Munger had the vision to see Buffett like that early on so his vote of confidence is worth considering.

 

Serious hurdles, but BYD's track record is really impressive.  They get more done in a quarter than most companies in a year. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[txlaw]

Apple is a very good guess, and I wouldn't count those guys out for anything.  But I don't know how sustainable their current business model is.  How long can they keep extracting amazing profits through selling hardware?  It's going to be difficult to tell what their owner earnings will be like if they are forced to move to a more service-oriented model due to competition in the hardware space.

 

The company I'm talking about is Google.  Perhaps people have stopped thinking of GOOG as a growth stock now?

 

By the way, I still always consider the price you pay and the durability of business model when trying to figure out whether a stock is a "Phil Fisher stock."  As Buffett says, growth and value are joined at the hip.

[txlaw]

EBIX - they meet all requirements as far as I can tell.

 

Ebix is very interesting.  I actually owned it for a short amount of time and sold out for a nice profit.  Wish I had held on, though.  Then it fell off my radar, but Harry Long's article got me interested in it again.  I'm gonna watch it for a while.

 

Robin Raina is a very impressive person.

[DCG]

A short article I came across http://autonews.gasgoo.com/auto-news/1016119/shares-down-byd-airs-grim-outlook-for-ev.html

 

Shares down, BYD airs grim outlook for EV

By Amanda Zheng  From:Gasgoo.comJuly 22, 2010

Shanghai July 22 (Gasgoo.com) BYD (01211.HK) shares closed at 50.1 HK dollars yesterday. Despite a slight increase over the previous day, the company's share price has fallen by 40.4% over the past three months, compared to its monthly high of 84 HK dollars on April 7, First Financial Daily reported.

 

The main reason for the continuous decline in BYD's share price is that its electric cars cannot achieve commercialization in a short term, said Cao He, an auto analyst with Mingzu Securities Co.

 

China released a plan to subsidize private purchases of electric cars in June this year. BYD's F3DM plug-in hybrid sedan and e6 electric car were both listed on the catalog as energy-efficient models to qualify for the government subsidies. Consumers can get the government subsidy of 50,000 yuan ($7,320) for buying an F3DM car and of 60,000 yuan for buying an e6 electric car.

 

Moreover, the local government of Shenzhen, a southern boom town of China, initialized a green-car subsidy pilot project in July to boost purchasing of new energy vehicles. The Shenzhen government added another 30,000 yuan and 60,000 yuan to the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and pure electric vehicle respectively.

 

Although motivated by the favorable governments' subsidies, BYD sales have been failing to achieve its expected goals. Reportedly, BYD started selling its F3DM cars to private consumers in March 29, but sales were disappointing with only 14 units sold in April, 2 units in May and 12 units in June, which is far short of its sales target of 1000 units for 2010.

 

The Chinese government's new-energy vehicle subsidy is only a pilot program. To mass-produce the electric cars is still a long way ahead. Therefore, economies of scale may not be able to work magic in a short time with the high cost of battery packs and inadequate support facilities for electric vehicles, an industry expert said.

 

[txlaw]

I saw that article on gurufocus, Alex.  Very nice.

 

I'd also recommend that people take a look at Shai Dardashti et al's website to get more info on BYD.

 

There are only two companies that I believe are worthy of being true Phil Fisher stocks to be held onto for a long time.  BYD is one of those companies.

 

I had a similar take on BYD -- seems like that rare Fisher stock to me.  I also have thought a lot about a speech Munger gives where he suggests that finding that one promising approach to investing that he and Buffett had not done, but he considered promising, was to "find that one in a million entrepreneur early."  Munger said if he was a younger man he might well take that approach, and considered it a valid one if used super selectively.  I think Wang Chuanfu might be such a person.  Like a Sam Walton or Bill Gates (or Warren Buffett) type, that is just in the right place at the right time, with extremely rare talent to grow a business from a small to a super large stage.  I would point out that Munger had the vision to see Buffett like that early on so his vote of confidence is worth considering.

 

Serious hurdles, but BYD's track record is really impressive.  They get more done in a quarter than most companies in a year. 

 

 

Yeah, Munger has called Wang Chuanfu a combination of Edison and Jack Welch.  I would say Wang is like China's Henry Ford.  

 

If any company emerges out of China as a serious chemistry/electrical engineering/materials science power house, I could see BYD as being that company.  Perhaps it is the company that will prove that China can be more than just a low end manufacturing center.  

 

There is a lot of optionality involved with BYD.

[DCG]

I just have a real hard time valuing this company, as their earnings bounce around so much, and I have a hard time trusting Chinese accounting practices. And (if I'm reading correctly) it looks like they're looking to do a secondary offereing in the next year if their stock price goes up. Have any of you taken a shot at a discounted cash flow model for them?

[frog03]

What is the ticker symbol in the US?

[Guest Bronco]

Google was plummeting toward 400 not too long ago and i was prepared to load up.  It ended up bouncing and I sold my stake.  It does have a great business model, sick ass balance sheet, and everything you would want in a company.  I was just hoping to get in at a highway robbery price.  The company is still cheap IMO, but i will wait to get back in.

 

Google and apple are about the only two technology names I am interested in (and can understand).  While neither may last forever, I at least feel I can see the tide turning if either becomes obsolete.  But man, what balance sheets they have.

 

As an aside, all the users here are great.  I can't think of another spot to bounce around ideas.  While some people view this as boring or nuts (ie my wife), it is a lot of fun, and i thank everyone for the ideas, feedback, articles, etc.   

[RRJ]

What is the ticker symbol in the US?

 

BYDDY for an unsponsored ADR issued by Citigroup representing 10 Hong Kong shares per ADR. 

 

BYDDF evidently is also available.  I was unable to get this through Schwab without paying the outrageous commission through their international desk, but someone else on another string on this board said that was in error, and that BYDDF is an American traded ADR.  I haven't tried again. 

 

BYDDY seems to work fine.  I've held for about 16 months. 

[Guest Dazel]

 

We bought Google below $300 during the crash...a significant postion...easiest money we have ever made..they dominate...sold to early!

 

My Fisher stock and currently our largest holding.

 

Visa....at 10000 transactions a minute and the world getting away from paper currency  I get gidy...they have the best business on the planet...and monkey could run it.

 

Dazel

 

[Guest valueInv]

I saw that article on gurufocus, Alex.  Very nice.

 

I'd also recommend that people take a look at Shai Dardashti et al's website to get more info on BYD.

 

There are only two companies that I believe are worthy of being true Phil Fisher stocks to be held onto for a long time.  BYD is one of those companies.

 

a

Are you referring to this site?

https://www.blogger.com/blogin.g?blogspotURL=http%3A%2F%2Fdardashti.blogspot.com%2F

 

It seems to be invite only.

 

 

[nodnub]

I saw that article on gurufocus, Alex.  Very nice.

 

I'd also recommend that people take a look at Shai Dardashti et al's website to get more info on BYD.

 

There are only two companies that I believe are worthy of being true Phil Fisher stocks to be held onto for a long time.  BYD is one of those companies.

 

a

Are you referring to this site?

https://www.blogger.com/blogin.g?blogspotURL=http%3A%2F%2Fdardashti.blogspot.com%2F

 

It seems to be invite only.

 

 

google shai dardashti BYD and you will find his other blog.

[DCG]

 

We bought Google below $300 during the crash...a significant postion...easiest money we have ever made..they dominate...sold to early!

 

My Fisher stock and currently our largest holding.

 

Visa....at 10000 transactions a minute and the world getting away from paper currency  I get gidy...they have the best business on the planet...and monkey could run it.

 

Dazel

 

 

I started buying Google at $275, and even added to my position at around $400 and again at $475. Visa is my 3rd largest position. They get a cut out of a a large amount of purchases throughout the world, and still have huge growth potential, as there are a lot of countries that are still mainly just use cash.

[biaggio]

DCG, Dazel,

"Visa....at 10000 transactions a minute and the world getting away from paper currency  I get gidy...they have the best business on the planet...and monkey could run it."

 

Agree Visa is a great company.

 

I would love to own it + admit that I have not looked at it real close as I always found it fully priced whenever I have started looking at it.

 

Big moat. If fully priced is there a MOS?

 

Thanks in advance.

[Guest Dazel]

 

I will start a thread...on Visa. BYD is extremely interesting and i thank everyone for their in put...i do not want to take away from this thread.

 

dazel.