scary article

[sswan11]

Peter Schiff: "We're in the Early Stages of a Depression"

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/08/09/peter-schiff-were-in-the-early-stages-of-a-depress.aspx

 

Jennifer Schonberger

August 9, 2010

 

 

In August 2006, Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, offered what many considered to be an outlier prognosis for the economy: The exuberance would end, real estate prices would crash back down to earth, and consumers would revert to saving from spending. In short, a deep recession was in the works.

 

As outlandish as he may have sounded at the time, he was right. Four years and the worst recession since the Great Depression later, Schiff stands alone again with a bleaker diagnosis for the economy: an inflationary depression.

 

In an interview, Schiff, president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, a candidate for U.S. Senate in Connecticut, and author of the new book How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes, said he thinks the government's policies -- massive fiscal stimulus and a zero interest-rate policy -- have put the U.S. on a track for a collision course.

 

As such, to protect one's wealth, Schiff recommends divesting U.S. assets and dollar-denominated debt in favor of emerging markets. He likes natural resources economies like Australia, Norway, and Canada.

 

Companies like Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) or BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) are examples of companies that offer exposure to natural resources economies.

 

He also favors exposure to precious metals -- particularly gold.

 

With that, investors might want to consider exposure to gold miners like Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) or exchange-traded funds SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) or iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV).

 

Here is an edited transcript of our conversation.

 

Jennifer Schonberger: What's your take on the state of the economy now?

 

Peter Schiff: We're in the early stages of a depression now. It's going to be a horrific experience for average Americans who are going to watch their standard of living plunge. The cost of living is going to escalate dramatically. We are going to see soaring prices for the basic necessities of life, like energy, clothing, and other things. Education and health-care costs are going to continue to spiral out of control. Millions of more Americans are going to lose their jobs, and all of us are going to lose our freedoms and our rights. As the government gets bigger, it tries to end the crisis; but its policies are creating, perpetuating, and making it worse.

 

The sad fact is these policies are going to wipe out the middle class. They're going to wipe out the poor; they're going to wipe out retirees. Accumulated savings is going to be blown.

 

There is no economic recovery. All we did is spend more borrowed money. We dug ourselves into a deeper hole, and now we're in even more trouble than before Obama ascended to the presidency.

 

Schonberger: You've got the new book out on how an economy grows and why it crashes, and as you noted, you feel that this recovery is "fake." Certainly, it's slowing down as the stimulus is beginning to fade. How do we revive the economy for real growth and create jobs?

 

Schiff: We have to stop stimulating. We have to shrink the government and cut government spending dramatically. The reason the economy is so screwed up is because government regulations and subsidies have created a slowing economy. They have prevented market forces from operating the way they need to be. They have prevented an efficient allocation of resources. We need to rebuild our manufacturing base. We need to reindustrialize. We can't do that without the resources, without the savings, without the investment.

 

They've created a nation of spenders, speculators, and consumers, and they've destroyed the savers, producers, and the investing class that built this country. We're moving from a market-based economy to essentially a planned economy. We're abandoning capitalism and embracing socialism. That's a recipe for disaster.

 

Schonberger: Sans fiscal stimulus and the Feds' intervention -- quantitative easing -- do you think we would even have GDP [gross domestic product] growth?

 

Schiff: We don't have economic growth. GDP is going up, but that's not a sign of any economic growth. All we're measuring is what we're consuming. But we are paying for it by going into debt. As a nation, we're in worse shape because of the GDP growth. The real economy is shrinking. All we're doing is borrowing money from economies that are growing, like China, and we're spending their money. But that's going to stop.

 

Schonberger: You mentioned that you think we're in the early stages of a depression. When do you think we begin to see a double dip back into a recession?

 

Schiff: We've already seen that. GDP is decelerating now as the stimulus is wearing off, and the hangover is setting in. By next year, I believe we'll be back in recession territory, as far as the GDP numbers.

 

Schonberger: If we continue on the current policy path, is there a chance the U.S. is facing a Japan scenario where we're in a slow-growth, deflationary malaise?

 

Schiff: No. There's no chance of us getting off as easy as Japan. Our situation is considerably worse. We're going to have runaway inflation and recession simultaneously. I call what we're going to have an inflationary depression, which is the worst possible depression you can have.

 

Schonberger: So even though you think we're in for a depression, you're not concerned about deflation?

 

Schiff: No. We're going to have falling stock prices and falling real estate prices. That's not deflation. Prices are rising. Oil is at $82 a barrel and rising. The Japanese yen is at a 15-year high against the dollar. The government is printing a bunch of money. These are signs of inflation. Deflation is healthy. That's what we need. Unfortunately, inflation is what we're going to get thanks to the Fed and government policy.

 

Schonberger: Then it's safe to say you think the Fed should not be following the zero-interest-rate policy right now?

 

Schiff: No. We need higher interest rates. Rates are much too low. Low interest rates are part of the problem; they're not part of the solution.

 

... We're repeating the same mistakes of the [Alan] Greenspan Fed except on a bigger scale. Obama is repeating Bush's mistakes. Bernanke is repeating Greenspan's mistakes. So their mistakes will do even more damage to our economy than the mistakes of their predecessors.

 

Schonberger: So how should investors preserve their wealth in this environment?

 

Schiff: By getting out of U.S. assets entirely, by not owning any dollar-denominated debt. Don't own Treasuries or bonds. Invest in the economies that are doing it right. Invest in emerging markets -- Southeast Asia, China. Invest in natural resources economies like Australia, Norway, and Canada. I invest in commodities and precious metals. Just get out of dollars.

 

Schonberger: So you're still buying gold, which is currently trading around $1,200 an ounce. Where do you see gold going from these levels?

 

Schiff: There's no limit to how high gold prices will go. They will rise many times from here --thousands and thousands of dollars per ounce higher. People will be shocked.

 

It's surprising to me that gold is still as cheap as it is. I just know it's going higher, and eventually it's going to go ballistic. ...

 

Schonberger: Given your outlook for the U.S. economy, do you think the U.S. stock market is poised to crash?

 

Schiff: No. I don't think it's going to crash in nominal terms -- the way we think about it -- because the government has already created inflation. All that money creation will put a floor under nominal stock prices. But I do believe that the Dow Jones will fall down to about one ounce of gold, which is an 80% or so decline from where it is right now. In real terms, U.S. stocks are going to get killed. But in terms of dollars that we create out of thin air, no, I'm not looking for Dow 1,000 or Dow 2,000. But I am looking for the equivalent, loss of purchasing power, in terms of an ounce of gold.

 

 

[Myth465]

I used to listen to Schiff but now see him as a crackpot.

 

Also his strategy lost money even though is call was right.

 

Aussie sells to China which many believe is in a bubble.

Canada sells to the US which many believe will slow down.

 

 

 

I doubt decoupling will work and think all assets will decline if he is proven right.

[sswan11]

What about owning oils in general?  It seems like oils may be head up in several scenarios?  I noticed Tweedy Browne's favorable comments (and purchase of) on COP.

[Myth465]

If the world wide economy declines due to a great depression in the worlds largest economy (which would likely pull China down causing 2 of the largest consumers of energy to need less of it), doesnt oil demand decline, and doesnt declining demand cause prices to fall?

 

I own oil, I believe in the new normal theory and see us muddling through.

 

 

 

If  you believe the world is ending then I would prefer guns, a farm, and ammo vs gold and oil.

[alertmeipp]

his thesis and conclusion has lots of conflict, isn't it?

[beerbaron]

I like macro economists, they are right 50% of the time. These guys are all genius!

 

BeerBaron

[Zorrofan]

If the world wide economy declines due to a great depression in the worlds largest economy (which would likely pull China down causing 2 of the largest consumers of energy to need less of it), doesnt oil demand decline, and doesnt declining demand cause prices to fall?

 

I own oil, I believe in the new normal theory and see us muddling through.

 

If  you believe the world is ending then I would prefer guns, a farm, and ammo vs gold and oil.

 

Myth - if the economy does fall into a depression energy demand would decline and prices would fall. But then if production drops off due to natural decline rates from existing reserves while new production is constrained due to lack of investment in new fields, then if production declined more than demand did it could cause oil prices to rise further exacerbating the depression with higher energy costs...?

 

cheers

Zorro  ???

 

[Myth465]

If the world wide economy declines due to a great depression in the worlds largest economy (which would likely pull China down causing 2 of the largest consumers of energy to need less of it), doesnt oil demand decline, and doesnt declining demand cause prices to fall?

 

I own oil, I believe in the new normal theory and see us muddling through.

 

If  you believe the world is ending then I would prefer guns, a farm, and ammo vs gold and oil.

 

Myth - if the economy does fall into a depression energy demand would decline and prices would fall. But then if production drops off due to natural decline rates from existing reserves while new production is constrained due to lack of investment in new fields, then if production declined more than demand did it could cause oil prices to rise further exacerbating the depression with higher energy costs...?

 

cheers

Zorro  ???

 

 

I believe in Peak cheap oil, and believe that eventually supply will overtake demand causing a spike.

 

With that said it only happens if China, India, and the rest of Asia keep growing their oil consumption (in an attempt to live like the US which consumes 25% of the worlds oil), or until decline rates offset enough cheap production (I think this would take much longer then with growth). If we get a depression and the world pulls back on oil consumption due to a lack of aggregate demand then prices would fall. Right now supply and demand are close, but if demand falls we get excess supply which pushes down prices. Marginal expensive production (such as deep water, and tar sands) would be the first to go. Declining production would be replaced by cheap sources (onshore, opec) before people went offshore and what not.

 

We would basically have a boom, bust, and the bust would setup the need for the next boom.

 

Shiff's thesis isnt contradictory because he believes Asia will decouple from the US, and the Asian consumer will replace the US one. He thinks Asia and its suppliers (Australia) will be insulated from a crash because of this. It hasn't happened and in my opinion wont. If we crash, China will be dealing with low demand and a housing bust and will likely crash too. Germany and the other large exporters would follow as well. Its a global economy, with a large global problem in my opinion. He is extremely anti anything government but likes a central planned economy like China's. Very interesting.

 

I think we will have 7 lean years with anemic growth, and the market will be range bound (it will be a big range with great volatility). At least this is what I hope. I think its the best we can expect.

[Guest broxburnboy]

Over the year's Schiff's views have been very consistent and somewhat prescient.

The gist of his commentary however is to blame government spending and increased regulations for the debt crisis.

He supports monopoly capitalism and sees Big Business as the engine of future growth.

I can't recall him acknowledging the role of corporate malinvestment or malfeasance in the debt bubble.

He recently supported BP as a victim of government malregulation in the Gulf oil pollution affair.

His solutions include further deregulation of business.. he advocates everyone else to "take our medicine".

 

His commentary comes from someone intent on purging "socialism" but not "corporate socialism".

[SmallCap]

His views on what is going on currently seem like they are shaped by his belief system. I have been guilty of this many times and have watched others do the same where one only sees what matches up to their belief system and everything no matter what it is somehow reinforces their belief system.

 

His belief system or point of view (anti gov, free market....) seems to be so entrenched in his thinking that he has a hard time looking at things objectively.

[Zorrofan]

Myth - well said! You are far better at espressing yourself than I. You have expressed perfectly my thoughts on the situation. It will take a while for Asian savers to be converted into Asian consumers, at least to the degree that they would be able to decouple and sustain global growth. FFH survived 7 lean years, it may be time fo rthe rest of the world to have a turn. I fear it may be worse then we hope but hopefully not....

 

cheers

Zorro

[Parsad]

I find these articles and prognostications always quite amusing.  We've just been through a tumultous period, probably worse than any past recession, since the credit markets had completely seized.  Schiff is suggesting bailing out of US assets and into commodities and gold...not like everyone else isn't already there! 

 

I'll tell you what, I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing...buy cheap assets that other people shun, and then I'll sell them back to those same people once they bail out of what they are currently buying...which is treasuries paying nothing and gold that is overpriced and provides no income.

 

Our investors in our US fund have seen their money increase by almost 70% in the last fours years versus the S&P500, and even our Canadian fund which struggled out of the gate in the first year and a half, has beaten the S&P500 (in Canadian dollars) by over 20% with currencies flying every which way around us through the last three years.  Far too much noise by the economists and those that suddenly feel enlightened enough to act as economists.  Stick to what Ben Graham taught and you'll come out of this whole thing fine over the long-term.  Cheers!       

[OracleofCarolina]

I second Parsad!

[nwoodman]

As such, to protect one's wealth, Schiff recommends divesting U.S. assets and dollar-denominated debt in favor of emerging markets. He likes natural resources economies like Australia, Norway, and Canada.

 

 

I wonder if Schiff has taken into account Australia's own particular set of challenges. 

 

"At 3.2 times GDP, Australia's housing bubble has surpassed both the United States and Hong Kong housing bubbles, but remains below both the Japanese and Chinese bubbles. Nevertheless, it is clear that Australia's housing market has entered dangerous territory and, based on HSBC's analysis, a fall in home values of more than 30% could be expected should our housing bubble deflate."

 

 

http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/

 

 

[twacowfca]

I find these articles and prognostications always quite amusing.  We've just been through a tumultous period, probably worse than any past recession, since the credit markets had completely seized.  Schiff is suggesting bailing out of US assets and into commodities and gold...not like everyone else isn't already there! 

 

I'll tell you what, I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing...buy cheap assets that other people shun, and then I'll sell them back to those same people once they bail out of what they are currently buying...which is treasuries paying nothing and gold that is overpriced and provides no income.

 

Our investors in our US fund have seen their money increase by almost 70% in the last fours years versus the S&P500, and even our Canadian fund which struggled out of the gate in the first year and a half, has beaten the S&P500 (in Canadian dollars) by over 20% with currencies flying every which way around us through the last three years.  Far too much noise by the economists and those that suddenly feel enlightened enough to act as economists.  Stick to what Ben Graham taught and you'll come out of this whole thing fine over the long-term.  Cheers!       

 

 

BUY BUDDY BUY!  :)

[Parsad]

Incidentally, we made the same comments as Schiff in October 2006 at our very first presentation for a group of doctors in Bakersfield, California.  The excerpted slides are attached to this post.  While everything hasn't corrected itself, and many things will take some time to work their way through the system (housing supply, unemployment, governmental debt, etc), we are in a very different place from where we were in 2006:

 

- Corporations in general are far healthier, with fatter bank accounts and less debt  

- Consumers are saving again  

- Interest rates have dropped like a rock

- Home prices have fallen through the floor

- Derivatives risk, while still present in some forms (interest rate swaps, currencies, etc), has been significantly reduced in others

- A weaker U.S. dollar actually helps reduce the trade deficit

 

Things won't be easy, and we will face shocks to the system, but all in all things are slowly improving.  Ben Graham's theories and ideas got us through that, and they'll get us through the next 10, 20, 30 years!  Cheers!  

[SharperDingaan]

 

Not so sure its improved; just looks different.

- Absent trading gains & US bank earnings are essentially flat; ie the artificial spread income (FED intervention) has been covering mortgage write-offs as the banking sector de-leveraged. Very smart policy, but the problem is that seriously deficient mortgages have tripled over 2010 YTD, & that spread can now no longer keep pace. When they go, some of the banking sector will either go with it - or get another bailout.

- The UK deficit has forced drastic cutbacks on the UK civil service. Either the US, with a similar problem is somehow immune, or the same thing starts happening in the US in 2011. We're with the cutbacks.

- Graham was right, but he also ran out of money before he could prove his belief; ie value investment works - IF you pay attention to liquidity. That great deal is actually a loss to you if you cant hold it.

- If you hedge & you're wrong, you stay alive. If you don't hedge & you're wrong, you're in a very deep hole.

 

SD

[Guest ValueCarl]

"Schiff" might happen as SHIFT is a certainty in both physics and economics. I have always wondered about Peter Schiff, the man, overtime. How men come to their belief systems, but as importantly, what they do to adhere to them is more important from my perspective. Strange as it may sound, even a misplaced belief system can point to noteworthy characters, quality characters even, from time to time.

 

Peter Schiffs father, Irwin, seems to be such a man at least what I glean from his history. Any man who is willing to lead by example, even willing to sacrifice his life through incarceration for maintaining his belief systems, ones that would bode well for his peers, will always garner a certain level of respect in my mind.  

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Schiff

 

Often times, radicals, revolutionists and visionaries aren't perceived well by mass audiences, but that doesn't mean that they're wrong! America's founding fathers would, no doubt, agree. Jefferson and Madison are turning in their graves, and have been for a # of years now. Their belief systems about how THE BANKSTERS would ultimately operate, while destroying liberty during the process, is working at a feverish pace today.

 

Recently, I have been coming to see Dr. Jack Kevorkian as a "patriot" as well. His understanding of the ninth amendment should not be ignored.

 

It is so crystal clear, that there is no room for misunderstanding while being directly applicable to what "Dr. Death" was facilitating on behalf of willing, consenting, adults who were experiencing ongoing, excruciating pain.

 

<The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.>

 

Where he and his constituents might disagree with me, is where they place the source of power behind our nation's misdeeds. They believe the power, influence and control rests inside the Supreme Court, while I believe it rests, as it always has, inside "The Central Bank(s)."

 

As Mayer Rothschild once opined,

 

"Give me control of a nation's money

and I care not who makes the laws."

 

 

 

Regarding this Depression talk, tumultuous times, The Great Recession, double dips and more, America hasn't seen anything yet! SD has Graham right, to the extent that his patience tethered to his belief system was tried at its core while prices for cigar butts went nowhere for very long periods. Without a doubt, Graham was tested to his outer limits like others in this modern era shall continue to be!  

 

Not unlike Schiff, I do not have a perfect crystal ball, however, the psychological destruction and corresponding effects of destroying "belief systems" that these "Money Changers" have aided and abetted by their criminal, nefarious acts once again in history, will continue to have negative rippling effects for a very long time.

 

Couple that with a declining wage base due to lost industries as a result of dirt cheap competing labor forces overseas, a debilitated education system, a banking system that is hoarding the capital it stole from its citizen base including "small businesses," while the hangover from such a previous "debt gone wild" society remains elevated, is a masterful recipe for failure in addition to civil unrest.  

 

When a rat is cornered by its potential CAPTOR, it will bite back.

 

 

 

   

[Zorrofan]

Sanj - what you say is not wrong but WEB always says that one should wait for the fat pitches, and that one gets as many pitches as they want before they swing. I just think the pitches are going to be fatter 6 months from now than today......

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Incidentally, we made the same comments as Schiff in October 2006 at our very first presentation for a group of doctors in Bakersfield, California.  The excerpted slides are attached to this post.  While everything hasn't corrected itself, and many things will take some time to work their way through the system (housing supply, unemployment, governmental debt, etc), we are in a very different place from where we were in 2006:

 

- Corporations in general are far healthier, with fatter bank accounts and less debt  

- Consumers are saving again  

- Interest rates have dropped like a rock

- Home prices have fallen through the floor

- Derivatives risk, while still present in some forms (interest rate swaps, currencies, etc), has been significantly reduced in others

- A weaker U.S. dollar actually helps reduce the trade deficit

 

Things won't be easy, and we will face shocks to the system, but all in all things are slowly improving.  Ben Graham's theories and ideas got us through that, and they'll get us through the next 10, 20, 30 years!  Cheers!  

[sswan11]

After reading Wikipedia article on Schiff, I agree that he's a kook.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff

[Parsad]

Sanj - what you say is not wrong but WEB always says that one should wait for the fat pitches, and that one gets as many pitches as they want before they swing. I just think the pitches are going to be fatter 6 months from now than today......

 

I agree with you Zorro!  My question is if you see 45-50 cent hamburgers, should you wait for 30-35 cent hamburgers if you are eating for the rest of your life?  

 

I'm not saying go all in.  But if you are buying assets that are cheap, unwanted, and you believe they will be worth significantly more over time as other investors come to their senses, then you shouldn't shun the investment and be in 80-100% cash, buying hoardes of gold, 10 year treasuries paying 2.5%, or Swiss francs!   ;D  Cheers!

[SharperDingaan]

 

The guy with the 80% cash is just continually buying enough burgers for the next week or so. The freezer gets filled up when they hit 30-35 cents; & he can afford to wait for those 30-35 cent burgers with relatively little adverse impact. The 'aggregate' consumer aggressively repaying debt, is essentially that guy with the 80% cash.

 

And if those 30-35 cent burgers are 'sirloin' burgers ... the basic burgers are only 20-25 cents; the highest price you could charge the hurting burger eater. The 30-35c burgers are selling because they're replacing the 70c T-Bone steaks. Quality (BMW, Mercedes, cars etc) & junk (GM cars [no disrespect to GM]) both sell; but the quality sells because its become cheap, the junk sells because there's no other choice.

 

The paradox of thrift.

 

SD

 

[Guest ValueCarl]

I suppose that one could argue vehemently that Peter Schiff doesn't understand what Warren Buffett does sufficiently(control stakes with plenty of FLIPPING of poorly timed or wildly successful strategies and/or thesis', as well as HEDGING including the use of commodity vehicles in between), in order to conclude a comparison of what he does by betting/positioning on commodities like gold, and currencies like the US dollar, which are non cash producing assets except for the corresponding "appreciation" or "depreciation" of the underlying instrument from ones own cost basis and ultimate value over time.

 

However, to call him a kook is not entirely fair. His belief systems tied to The Austrian School of Economics, on top of his association with another great patriot, Ron Paul, a libertarian at his core, should not be dismissed.  

 

Was Warren Buffett a kook when he said that front run investing with sweet whispers from Treasury Secretaries inside of GOLDman at fifteen dollars return per second was the right thing to do, or was he just TALKING his BOOK for the benefit of his crowd?

 

As far as I can tell, Schiff's stance is a long term position that remains OPEN, one that is predicated upon a continuation of trends which will ultimately prove or disprove his belief system.

 

It sounds to me as if, Peter has CONVICTION much as Warren Buffett does, and much like any investor needs to in order to maximize their RETURNS.

 

I do like SD's burger and steak analogies, however. Hold the "extra cheese" even though it's :D to think about!

 

 

 

<The Director of Communications at Schiff's investment firm responded to the original Shedlock piece by saying, "While it is true, that our accounts have suffered badly in 2008, a fact that we have never disputed or ran from, [shedlock's] estimates for the size our of typical client losses are exaggerated and unfair."[52][54] Schiff personally responded to Shedlock's criticism by saying, "to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive" and called Shedlock's blog entry "nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career," adding that losses were felt mostly by recent clients and not by others.[55]

Schiff responded similarly to criticisms made by Wade Slome of Sidoxia Capital Management, LLC. in a September 2009 blog entry entitled, "The Emperor Schiff Has No Clothes."[33] Schiff stated not only were the losses suffered by his clients in 2008 highly exaggerated, but also that most of those losses have already been recouped, stating that many who where down then are now up, and most long-term clients were never down at all, but merely temporarily lost some of the profits they had earned over the years.[33]

The January 2009 Wall Street Journal article discussed the value of Schiff's predictions, and stated how deficiencies "made mincemeat of investors who took his advice in 2008."[53] In an interview the following week Schiff likened himself to billionaire investor Warren Buffett saying they were both "buy and hold" long-term investors. Contrasting his negative press he compared claims about accounts managed under Schiff's firm to the stock market value of Warren Buffett's company, saying: "His approach is you buy stocks and you never sell them—you hope to never sell them—and Berkshire Hathaway is down 40% in the last thirteen months; I don't see the Wall Street Journal saying 'Warren Buffett made mincemeat out of his clients.'"[56] The Wall Street Journal also published a letter written by Schiff in response to his critics saying: "My central investing premise, a weakening dollar and safety in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, didn't materialize in 2008. But all the ingredients were (and remain) present for those movements to occur. Over the past year, market reactions that I didn't foresee—massive global deleveraging, a knee-jerk 'flight to quality' into U.S. Treasuries and a sharp counter trend rally in the U.S. dollar—have kept the scenario from playing out."[57] >

[Myth465]

Zorro thanks for the comments, I have listened to several people and the muddle through / 7 lean years / new normal theory seems to work best for me. Good call Parsad, also seems like you had great timing. You have helped alot with my allocation strategy.

 

Buy cheap, sell dear, hold cash so one can sleep.

 

Schiff is a kook. I have no problems with The Austrian school, but I don't think its very useful and do think Ron Paul is a kook as well. Schiff and Paul are anti government conspiracy theorist. I can respect Paul, but have put Schiff in the crazy Casandra pile. There is a guy on Youtube that has several videos about Schiff and Paul. I stayed up one night listening to them and changed my mindset with regard to them. I spent 1 year listening to Schiffs weekly program, and have read books by Murray Rothbard, and Ron Paul. Also my issue with Schiff has nothing to do with returns. I have a problem with his viewpoint on the Economy, the US, the Government, and his particular ideology.

 

Stiglitz is far more useful then Schiff. For Schiff the Government is always to blame and Corporations can do no wrong. Thats ideology and not facts, and its just not very useful.

 

Buffett was just talking his book and helping to talk up the economy / dispel the fear. Nothing strange about that. Also I have noticed in your posts you seem to have issues with Buffett and his banking investments.

[Fairfaxnut]

"Even a broken clock is right twice a day"