rogermunibond Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Nice announcements. Quarter itself was okay but 4 additional planes leased and amendment to the credit agreement raises the debt-to-Ebitda ratio for dividends/buybacks from below 2.0 to below 2.5. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atsg-reports-first-quarter-2014-213400502.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Market seems to like the news too. Up 21% today. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Congrats guy. They finally delivered. I sold a while ago, but this is what I was expecting this time in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Now I'm just trying to figure out what the current value is--deciding when to sell is the hard part. If I had more investments that I felt good about committing new money to, I'd feel better about selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Rmitz - that's my problem too. Haven't sold any shares since the 2009 lows, but I do need to start considering my exit. Market is excited by cash returns to shareholders but 767s coming onto the market over the next few years could get Hete in the capex mood again. Given they have mistimed a couple capex expansions, it might be the right time to start exiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Good quarter and good announcements with the potential buyback and additional planes. I felt the market was depressed about ATSG yesterday, too bad I already had way too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 It's nice to get the board authorization but until the debt covenants are reworked.... Still haven't exited either. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 From Cowen Management now forecasts 2014 EBITDA of $170MM, up from prior guidance of $165MM to $170MM. Management indicated they expect 3Q14 to be somewhat in line with 2Q14. As a result we forecast 2014 EBITDA of $182MM. We believe management is being conservative given the commentary we've heard about the peak shipping season. ATSG currently has three underutilized aircraft, which we believe is seeing increased interest given the improving demand environment. Management indicated that DHL could return another 767, however given the comments about the economy we would not be surprised if DHL actually kept it in service, at least through the peak shipping season. We are reiterating our Outperform rating on ATSG and believe the shares can trade at $11.50. We are assuming Share Repurchase Does Not Start Until 2Q15 ATSG announced a $50MM share repurchase program. We do not assume the company will buy back any shares until April 2015. ATSG currently has a promissory note due DHL of $4.65MM. If management were to buy back stock with the note still outstanding, under the terms of the agreement with DHL, they would need to pay a premium of 20% of the current market value of the shares. The DHL note will be fully amortized in April 2015 (it amortizes at $550,000 per month), and lifts the 20% restriction. Management could bite the bullet and pay back the note to DHL now, but won't as management doesn't view it as a good use of capital. They'd rather save the money now and use it to buy back stock at a later date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 ATSG is entering their final phase of this turnaround story. Buybacks are still on track to start in April. There are definitely analysts out there who believe the shares are worth more than I do. Part of the valuation is that relative to other companies like this, they are significantly under leveraged. I personally like the low leverage, but that can't last, especially in this interest rate environment. So at this point we come to that difficult question--when to sell? I don't see a lot of great opportunities right now, and I'd have to recoup 15-24% in capital gains taxes on basically the whole market value (I've been holding since 2008-9.) While there's a great deal of volatility, the bigger issue is that this really isn't a company where you can see a long-term moat for compounding. Screw ups by management can easily sink the ship. I don't see that happening in the near future, but that precludes it from becoming a hold forever situation. Due to the current lack of leverage there is a good cushion of equity, but it's certainly less than where I'd be after the capital gains. I expect to continue sitting on my hands for a good portion of this year, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 w/r/t the low leverage are you saying that they'll just end up buying something? or do you think they'll do the financial engineering route of taking on debt to fund a repurchase? I'm in the same boat as you and also figuring that the $11-12 per share area is a good target for selling shares. I'm not sure if it can get there on the strength of the share repurchase plan starting up in 2Q thru the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 w/r/t the low leverage are you saying that they'll just end up buying something? or do you think they'll do the financial engineering route of taking on debt to fund a repurchase? I'm in the same boat as you and also figuring that the $11-12 per share area is a good target for selling shares. I'm not sure if it can get there on the strength of the share repurchase plan starting up in 2Q thru the end of the year. I think they'll increase debt for the buybacks, or they are themselves going to get bought out as a juicy, under leveraged target (unless there's something in the DHL relationship that prevents that). Particularly as the cargo feedstock market has gotten much tighter, an outside acquisition looks more possible. Once we're past April, there's a good possibility I'll let tax planning drive my timing on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Looks like ATSG has attracted an activist investor. 8:43 am Air Transport Services Group: Bastogne Capital Management issues open letter to James H. Carey, Chairman of the Board of ATSG, calling for it to immediately take action to address the large discount to intrinsic value represented by the trading price of the Company's equity (ATSG) : In the letter, Bastogne outlined a specific proposal that would allow the Company to repurchase over 35% of its equity at a 30% premium to the market price while still creating over 30% accretion in cash flow per share. Highlights of the letter include: "According to the Company's slide presentation delivered at the BB&T Capital Markets' Transportation Services Conference on February 11, 2015, the Company's lenders (who will no doubt speak conservatively) value its aircraft fleet at approximately $880 million; given the Company's current stock price indicates a total enterprise value of just under $920 million, the market is therefore only ascribing approximately $40 million of value to the Company's business and ability to generate significant cash flows. We are not writing this letter simply to express our frustration with the continued depressed trading levels of the stock, but rather to bring to the board's attention a plan which we believe will address the widespread misunderstanding of ATSG's intrinsic value. As of December 31, 2014, the Company had net indebtedness of roughly $313.5 million, implying net leverage of less than 1.75x EBITDA and a net debt to collateral value ratio of under 36%. By comparison Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. ("Atlas") has a net debt leverage ratio of over 5.0x, greater than ATSG's enterprise value to EBITDA ratio. The extension of the DHL relationship and the execution of new dry lease arrangements have brought a significant level of stability to the Company's cash flows, and this should allow the Company to add leverage comfortably and at attractive levels. We believe the Company could borrow an additional $300 million of debt, remain conservatively levered, repurchase $300 million worth of shares at $12 (30% premium to current market) in a dutch tender and create over 30% free cash flow per share accretion for all remaining shareholders. We call on the board to immediately explore this and other options to remove the significant discount in the Company's stock price when compared to intrinsic value." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/bastogne-capital-issues-open-letter-james-h-carey-chairman-board-air-transport-services-2005825.htm Letter from Bastogne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Really a blow out quarter for ATSG. They are buying two additional 767 for delivery to DHL. No mention of share repurchases. That's the thing with these guys, they always have opportunities for cash that don't involve share repurchases. I'm wondering if they have any estimate of the intrinsic value of ATSG shares. Probably not. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atsgs-results-reflect-growing-returns-200500481.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Some interesting developments for ATSG and their partner rumored to be Amazon. http://motherboard.vice.com/read/amazon-is-expanding-its-secretive-air-cargo-operation http://www.mcall.com/business/mc-amazon-cargo-lvia-20151223-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Huge day for ATSG. They've announced a deal with AMZN for the lease of 20 767 freighters (5-7 year terms) and AMZN has acquired warrants to purchase up to 19.9% of ATSG (cut them a deal on pricing at $9.73 per share). http://finance.yahoo.com/news/air-transport-services-group-confirms-124500140.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Huge day for ATSG. They've announced a deal with AMZN for the lease of 20 767 freighters (5-7 year terms) and AMZN has acquired warrants to purchase up to 19.9% of ATSG (cut them a deal on pricing at $9.73 per share). http://finance.yahoo.com/news/air-transport-services-group-confirms-124500140.html Amazing how quiet this name has been here for so long. Anyway, I am waiting for the detailed 8K coming out later this week with the full details (some of it was covered on the conference call), but I am trying to get a handle on what the new value is. I expect to be selling in my tax-sheltered accounts soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 For sure, as news leaked about the Amazon deal, the stock really took off since mid February. Cowen's Helane Becker raised her target to $18. I'll be curious to see how she values the Amazon deal since the economics weren't really mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Here's the agreement info: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/894081/000089408116000212/a2016materialcontract8kcov.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 ATSG announced $50 million share repurchase - nice deal that allows Red Mountain to reduce the 30% holding that ATSG has become and allows ATSG to offset Amazon warrent dilution. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/atsg-repurchase-50-million-common-123000793.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Welp, that was quite a day yesterday. Seems like this is now a forever holding for me (except for charitable donations); or at least until Amazon buys them out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 It just gets better and better. What I'm wondering now is how much there business would tail off in a recession. When it was DHL and heavily express dominated, they were pretty sensitive to economic cycles. Now with both global leasing, more maintenance and 737 freighter conversion, plus the big ecommerce tailwind, how economically sensitive would they be? With 2-3x net debt/Ebitda as a target leverage, would the stock sell off 20-30% in a recession? Just my musings as I decide whether to keep all my ATSG position for another 3-5 years. Or as you say make it keeper for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Actually for those in AAWW or AER, I think ATSG is both a better value even with the jump up in share price. ATSG is too small for most HFs, but perfect for small PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Well, I think the buyout of WFM by Amazon today should dispell any notions of a significant buyout by Amazon for ATSG. It's an all-cash deal, so the possible speculation of getting Amazon shares at a really low cost basis via ATSG holdings should be considered dead. At this point all my holdings are taxable so at some point I'm going to need an exit strategy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neversummer Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 I have been in Atsg for years and love it. I haven't followed this board but were people really contemplating a buyout by amzn? To me the shares were taken to ensure adequate plane supply... why would you even want to exit as well? The multiple and FCF is reasonable to say the least and they have done an amazing job of driving consistent growth in cash from operations by investing our money in high ROIC projects. I am really curious why you would want to exit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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