rmitz Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 BBT and Suntrust both came out with buys today. Still holding all shares; haven't lightened up. My main holding is unchanged as well. I did pick up some yesterday for a different account, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 My holding is unchanged as well. I will probably exercise my March options. I've stopped trading with the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 My holding is unchanged as well. I will probably exercise my March options. I've stopped trading with the position. I will have to search and scrabble for this one, dont have enough cash so it will be quite interesting. I want to roll over my options, but think its more prudent to just exercise the March options. I have left $1 per share on the table monkeying around with the options vs. holding a core position, but think I think done better than that on the cash it freed up. I think this is the perfect Buffett type stock. Its a 50 cent dollar growing at 10% - 15% per year with damn near unlimited growth opportunities. The prudent thing seems to be to build a core position and hold and maybe double down when there is a pullback. The real question is where to get the cash, I dont want to be on Margin. 2011 has been great so far. I still see major catalyst here, in ATPG, ROIC, FBK, and SD. I hope for multiples on all and thats 60% of my port. Im starting to feel smart which means I am due for a violent and numbing pullback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 Everyone in the space is raising guidance. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AAWW These guys are up 16% and we are following. Oil and gas is also up big after the GE buy out. Tomorrow should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I was wondering what was going on with ATSG. Apparently, Joe Hete is going to be giving a presentation sometime this week. It will be interesting to see if he presents anything new to those of us who have been following the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Doesn't look like anything new in the ATSG Stifel presentation. Anyone listen to the audio? http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/894081/000119312511036432/dex991.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 They already posted the slides and filed with the SEC even though they have not spoken yet? "Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) announced today that on Tuesday, February 15, 2011, at 2:50 p.m. Eastern Time, Joe Hete, President and CEO, and Quint Turner, Chief Financial Officer, will be presenting ATSG’s story of transforming growth and shareholder value creation to investors attending the Stifel Nicolaus Transportation Conference at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Key Biscayne, Florida. " http://www.atsginc.com/pr2011-02-11.html That's strange?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Same old same old presentation. Has anyone listened and if so is it worth listening to. I want Q4 numbers to use as a run rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 It is going on now. Very good presentation. Joe Hete just announced that they signed a South American carrier contract this past Friday. Something of note: no oil pricing volatility exposure, lower pension liability exposure. and their debt is cheap. The 767-300/767-200 is the air craft of choice for efficiency for cargo due to its low fuel consumption. Feed stock for the 767 is low due to the delays in the Dreamliner... Worth listening to the archived version if you haven't gotten a chance to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Earnings came out this evening: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATSG-Transformation-Yields-bw-2766654100.html?x=0&.v=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Earnings came out this evening: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATSG-Transformation-Yields-bw-2766654100.html?x=0&.v=2 Very happy with the results and ATSG is still quite cheap if you use Q4 as a runrate and add a percentage to cash flow for growth. Its like the gift that keeps on giving. ---- “Our primary goal for 2011 is the deployment of the nine Boeing 767 freighters which will enter service by year end. This will bring the total of our 767 freighters in revenue service to 39, with a balance of customer placements between either long-term dry leases or shorter-term ACMI and CMI arrangements,” Hete said. “Our ability to place and keep all of our freighters in revenue service will depend on completion of freighter modifications, the speed with which our customers can integrate those newly converted aircraft into their networks, and our ability to extend or replace as necessary customer agreements that could expire during the year. We also will continue to opportunistically acquire more passenger aircraft we can convert and profitably deploy into freighter service, including 767 medium wide-body and 757 narrow-body aircraft, either on a leased or ACMI basis. As the year unfolds, I expect that we will further penetrate air-cargo growth markets around the world, and realize greater gains from operating and technical support services to customers in many of those same markets.” ---- Just to give an idea of the baked in growth. So we have 30 in service and will be adding 9. Thats 30% growth in 767s and doesnt include any extra aircraft. These will likely have better margin then the ones with DHL. This all takes place in 2011 and I cant wait to see the 2012 exit rate Q4 CF. The only downside I see is eventually we will have to pay taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It was definitely a good quarter for ATSG. "The only downside I see is eventually we will have to pay taxes." This is not a bad downside to have, Myth. We all can't have the cake and eat it too. ;D ;D Comparing to the near-death experience of Dec. 2008, our ATSG has come a long way. Hete is quite the CEO at pulling magic tricks out of a hat. At one point in 2008, ATSG was a major tax write off. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It was definitely a good quarter for ATSG. Hete is quite the CEO at pulling magic tricks out of a hat. At one point in 2008, ATSG was a major tax write off. :) Lol I still have tax loss carryforwards and had shares purchased for less than 20 cents at one point. Too bad it was a was sale. I thought about doubling down after 30 days but just bought back my original holding - I guess you win some and loss some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Myth, you said it. ATSG is the gift that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Myth, I am just glad that I doubled down when it got to 20 cents. At the time, my wife questioned my wit and sanity. It sure was a lonely feeling buying when others were dumping ATSG at that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Is this just pull back time? nothing really material from what ive seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 brker_guy man thats amazing. Good thing you didnt listen. It seems like one of these comes along every other year or so. ---- Smazz, I think just a pullback. Its happening in all my stocks with no news. - ATSG, ROIC. At first I thought it was tied to oil going up (people seem to think there is fuel risk here), but it pulled back again when oil was down. I would buy more common but I am overwieght. I would buy more options but the December ones arent out. The way I see it is we have growth for the next year or so. Pretty consistent growth, also a few calls on Management, new plans, and labor / repair / other services. I have a core position, and will add at some point when I get more cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Myth, thanks! I think the mispricing will happen more often as Mr. Market goes into panic attack mode on a frequent basis. So, you will get the mispricing of equities if you are armed and ready. Charlie Munger was right all along: i.e. when you see opportunities, you have to be mentally ready and financially ready to act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Charlie Munger was right all along: i.e. when you see opportunities, you have to be mentally ready and financially ready to act. I am coming into some cash, and will try to hold onto it lol. Hete said on that conference call that the value of 1 plane exceeded the Market Cap of the company. It was an interesting period, I cant wait for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Do they actually own those planes? I remember they have tons of debt. So, their creditors own the plane until ATSG become debt free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Assets exceed liabilities is my guess without checking the BS. Not every single plan is 100% encumbered with debt. So there is some ownership. I think at the time the company was trading for 11 - 15 cents. You could have sold all the planes, paid off the debt, and been left with a nice chunk of change at the time was Hete's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Hi Myth, you are the resident guru on ATSG ;) I dont see anything material other than the macro stuff some of us have been talking about recently (which somehow doesnt seem to bother the rest of the market lol). Is this just profit taking on the way down re the current marketvalue drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I remember they have operations in Japan, what kind of impact they will have there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddballstocks Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I did a brief look at ATSG and skimmed the 10-K and had a question that hopefully someone could answer here. I'm trying to understand what the impact of DHL closing the Wilmington facility will be on them. From reading the 10-k it appears they're based at the Wilmington airport, and I remember reading in a local Cincinnati paper that DHL was closing the Wilmington facility completely. I went digging to see if I could find anything out via Google and all that turned up was a Bloomberg article saying that the Cincinnati Hub would be expanded. I'm wondering if by Cincinnati hub they are referencing Wilmington? My wife's family is from that area and Wilmington is not considered part of the Cincinnati area or anywhere near the airport. To drive from one to the other would probably take close to two solid hours. So here's where I'm at, ATSG operates out of Wilmington but the biggest carrier there is now gone, so are they going to relocate, shuttle planes? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 All that is old news. I believe the sort operation and a bit else was based on Wilmington. All the planes have been released to DHL or other carriers and I believe they use a portion of the facility as a base of operations. Most of the sort workers were laid off and DHL paid through the transition. Thats more related to the old cost plus structure of the business. Now ATSG basically just leases plans and does a few other support work. Basically its old news / a none issue. You can use Q4 earnings / cash flow as a run rate. It is post closing to give you an idea of the earnings / cash flow potential. --- Smazz - I cant figure this one out either. Perhaps its just relative value arbitrage. This selloff is interesting. The December options are out as well. I dont think the Japan activity was material compared to the consolidated business. I think the selloff is due to people raising cash and a lack of news over the last 4 months. Also perhaps due to people perceiving oil risk with $120 oil, when its the reverse for ATSG. We are getting chipped at by 2% - 3% a day though so perhaps I am missing something. ATSG tends to do this, and did this around $5 or so. I remember TX and myself trading it from $4 to $5 for a while, then it rallied to $7 or $8, hopefully more of the same. I have a bid on the December calls, but the bid ask spread is huge right now. Exercising my $5 calls took alot of my cash, I have new cash coming in though its not accessible. Hopefully I can get a few more calls during this downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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