Myth465 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 We have also had alot of little announcements like this. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/110419/20110419007131.html?.v=1 Not sure what they are worth but they have to be positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Smazz - I cant figure this one out either. Perhaps its just relative value arbitrage. This selloff is interesting. The December options are out as well. I dont think the Japan activity was material compared to the consolidated business. I think the selloff is due to people raising cash and a lack of news over the last 4 months. Also perhaps due to people perceiving oil risk with $120 oil, when its the reverse for ATSG. We are getting chipped at by 2% - 3% a day though so perhaps I am missing something. ATSG tends to do this, and did this around $5 or so. I remember TX and myself trading it from $4 to $5 for a while, then it rallied to $7 or $8, hopefully more of the same. I have a bid on the December calls, but the bid ask spread is huge right now. Exercising my $5 calls took alot of my cash, I have new cash coming in though its not accessible. Hopefully I can get a few more calls during this downturn. Interesting indeed. One pundit made a very simple point but one that many forget re. psychology out there. with the runup that we've had over the last yr or so in not only the market price here but the market in general, there is ALOT of room for profit taking all the way to? Who knows. I get a chuckle when people talk about a 5-10% pullback. As if that wont manifest in a herd of fear - get out while i can mentality. I am in no way saying that is what will happen however its a variable which cannot be discounted. I got bbqd for my commentary on FFH pricing earlier - ok, we will see what happens there when its priced over book yet so much can go wrong that could be in the books present day. (and Ive held FFH for the majority of 10yrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted April 20, 2011 Share Posted April 20, 2011 Honestly I avoid those FFH threads. I agree with you and UCC, FFH is overpriced right now. Fair value - true fair value is probably 1.25 - 1.5 BV, and maybe higher in a normal 5% - 6% rate environment. With many high quality great underwriting insurers trading below book value, investment losses, and cat losses looming it doesnt seem wise to hold FFH, unless you have a material position with tax gains, or are simply a buy and hold kinda guy. If one can be nimble with capital it makes more sense to sell and buy back after Q1 and Q2, or hurricane season. Alot here arent receptive to that sort of thinking though. We wont get to Fair Value without 95% combined ratios for a few years or a hard market. FFH is ineffeciently priced, one guy buy at or below book value when FFH is sitting on huge gains...... To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Myth, Im assuming you still holding - what is your latest thesis on this one. It looks like a damn good traders holding thats for sure. If you ever do have the time i would love to read about your theory when this was a penny/$ stock. I am being sincere as i rarely delve into those holdings but am always willing to learn from others successess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I listened to the call yesterday and looked at the updated slides today. I hold a large (large for me lol) overweight position, maybe 20% in a tax free account. I think $16 in 2 years and $12 by year end is doable. I plan to update all my stocks over the next week or so and will post my thoughts at that point. I like what I see though we will likely have to account for the loss of the business related to the smaller inefficient planes at some point and taxes which will be due sooner or later. I plan to look at the 10k for ideas on how they are depreciating the planes. They have a deferred tax asset which is weird, I assumed tax depreciation was higher then book. So alot of interesting things to look at. My plan now is to hold my shares which have been rolled over to a tax free account. If we get a big enough pullback I will buy a 3% position and trade it as it moves up or down $1. Also I emailed you my log which goes back to 2007, been an interesting few years. I learned alot with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smazz Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Also I emailed you my log which goes back to 2007, been an interesting few years. I learned alot with this one. Thankyou, very considerate - i will check for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
king888 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Drop 17% today. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110722005402/en/ATSG-Statement-DB-Schenker-Announcement Thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Drop 17% today. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110722005402/en/ATSG-Statement-DB-Schenker-Announcement Thought? Seems like a massive overreaction. I don't know if there are people selling who know more than the filings are telling though, since it's been under pressure for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Drop 17% today. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110722005402/en/ATSG-Statement-DB-Schenker-Announcement Thought? Seems like a massive overreaction. I don't know if there are people selling who know more than the filings are telling though, since it's been under pressure for some time now. Yes been very weak for a while. I am all in on ATSG but if I had cash I would be buying. Hell I may sell some SD to buy today. I am for retiring these aircraft and taking a one time hit. I prefer being just 767s. We estimate that on an annualized basis, each of our eight DC-8 and eight 727 aircraft dedicated to the DB Schenker network generates approximately one cent per share in earnings after tax. We cannot yet determine, however, when or how many of those aircraft will be removed from DB Schenker service, nor how readily we can deploy them with other customers or otherwise realize their value. If all of the DC-8 and 727 aircraft currently dedicated to DB Schenker are eventually removed from service, we project an annual reduction in required capital maintenance expenditures of $10 to $15 million.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Drop 17% today. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110722005402/en/ATSG-Statement-DB-Schenker-Announcement Thought? I actually completely sold out of ATSG in June to raise cash, but I'm going to have to do some number crunching this weekend. Could be a golden opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Way to go, TxLaw! I sold some as well, but not as much as you did. I still have a few shares left to unload. I kind of stuck because my cost basis too low to bring it up even if I buy more at these prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I sold some SD and also bought in another account. Seems like an easy trade. I am a bit annoyed, missed the 4s and had to buy at $5.20. This is noise inmo. Some growth is soaked up, but the thesis is still in tact and ATSG inmo is still worth $10 - $16. Now I know why its been week so this is good news inmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Way to go, TxLaw! I sold some as well, but not as much as you did. I still have a few shares left to unload. I kind of stuck because my cost basis too low to bring it up even if I buy more at these prices. Yeah, I'm definitely going to be paying quite a bit of capital gains taxes this year. Not a bad thing. Your cost basis is well below $1, isn't it? You're definitely going to be paying a lot of taxes when you decide to sell. In general, I have been lightening up on many of my winners (including LVLT!) to raise cash and to redeploy into more undervalued companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Last year, I was in such a haste to sell 1/3 of my position at $4.5 thinking that it wouldn't go much higher than for awhile. So, because my cost basis was in the neighborhood of where Hete & Presscott bought their shares at, I ended up sending in an 1040EST bill. Then, I ended owing more taxes this past April. It was a very painful bill to pay... Tha's the reason why I took off my trigger of selling ATSG until last month. Well, you and I have a very pleasant problem that most investors wish they have: making money rather losing money... So, we can't complain. BTW: I hope you don't sell too much of your LVLT. I think you haven't seen the rest of this movie yet. Just sit tight and enjoy the show. ;D :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Up almost 23% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Up almost 23% right now. If only I'd bought more after the price collapsed on the DB Schenker announcement! Did anybody listen to the CC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Several insider purchases at ATSG recently, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATSGs-Adjusted-PreTax-bw-1746201512.html?x=0&.v=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keerthiprasad Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 The management at ATSG is very solid. I hope someday a thorough article or short book is written about the transformation of this company. I hope they start to get more respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Very good call. Explains the bounce. http://www.wsw.com/webcast/bbt22/atsg/ Workforce going down by 30% due to consolidation of entities. Big News inmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Any thoughts on the dive today? The earnings weren't great, the downturn in outlook, etc., but this seems like an overreaction to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Adj ebitda guidance from 190-200 to 170 so a 10% drop in their main cash metric. Could be a speed bump and temporary. Or could be customers reining in volume as th global economy slows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 The delays in projected start dates, however, for 767 aircraft deployments are now significant enough that our previously issued guidance is no longer appropriate. We now expect Adjusted EBITDA from Continuing Operations for 2012 to be approximately $170 million. We will continue to aggressively pursue both cost savings and new business that can yield even stronger results in 2013 and beyond." I haven't followed ATSG these days.. but this looks like a temporary delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I bought more. This is my largest position and I have been wrong for the last year and a half. ATSG is probably worth around $8 - $10, and is dirt cheap right now. I should have sold 18 months ago, but will hold, and have added to my position. Guidance was cut due to contracting issues. Contracts are taking a while to start which caused the issue with achieving the guidance. Run rate EBITDA for 2013 will be $205 million or a little higher. We should be done with restructuring, have full cost savings, have all planes modded and contracted (except the combis). By mid to end of 2013 the fleet will also not feature any DC8s which should help regarding maintenance capex. Management has done a great job, but all of the growth they have developed has been consumed by the loss of the BKS business. They should be growing again in 2013. I also like that they seem to be more open to using cash flow to reduce debt, and potentially buy back stock. Its tough most of the debt is at 2%, and buying planes prevents competitors from developing and also provides tax relief via accelerated depreciation. Should be interesting to watch. My plan is to sell the additional purchases at a 25% gain once the stock recovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordoffh Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Myth After reading your last post and doing a little more digging I bought some that same day and it is up a tidy 10 % since then. Mucho gracis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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