yadayada Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 He targets ITT mostly lol. I would not invest in this mess. You are basicly investing in a scam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smreitz Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 This company has seen many sell-offs over the past few months. Today, the company disclosed receiving a 'Wells Notice". http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/19/us-itt-education-sec-idUSKBN0HE1H420140919 Again, this stock is not for the faint of heart, but could be an interesting play. At what point is a margin of safety enough to invest? What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 There was another thread on this company with more current discussions. Anyway, I first got in at $15 a share and doubled down at $8. I figured the coin toss was quite enticing at $15, at $8 very exciting. At $5ps, it's not even a coin toss anymore. Heads, uncertainties go away and you make 10x your money. Tails, the company liquidates and you still make a profit??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 There was another thread on this company with more current discussions. Anyway, I first got in at $15 a share and doubled down at $8. I figured the coin toss was quite enticing at $15, at $8 very exciting. At $5ps, it's not even a coin toss anymore. Heads, uncertainties go away and you make 10x your money. Tails, the company liquidates and you still make a profit??? How do you figure you will make 10X on your money? "For profit" education's hey day is long gone and never coming back. Skools are under increasing scrutiny because of the laughable expense, high rate of drop outs, and terrible outcomes for their graduates. How do you figure if it liquidates you will still make a profit? Their assets are probably largely illiquid. They tried to monetize their real estate and couldn't do it. Nobody is going to want to have anything to do with "for profit" education. They have a bad reputation and are untouchable. There is no brand equity...Nobody will want to buy existing locations/schools. COCO rocketed higher on Friday to $.14/share...I don't see any way that the stock does not wind up as a zero. There is a strong chance that most players in the "for profit" sector wind up the same way. These guys are socially destructive. Many, many, many lives have been ruined by them. The law suits are only getting started. I imagine we will start to see many lawsuits from former students and graduates. Who hires graduates from these places? Who in their right mind would go to one of these places? I don't see things getting better...their reputations will fall further as more & more people are aware of their problems. If the government decides to cut back on student loans, these places are in "super duper" bankruptcy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jschembs Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 I was long LINC a couple years ago, thinking (a) the sector was already beaten down, and (b) LINC focused more on blue-collar industries where specific skills could be taught that were easier to market for post-graduation jobs. I escaped with some minor gains, but thankfully closed the position, as I realized I had no way to estimate the economics of these businesses without significant gov't subsidies, which are likely a thing of the past. That being said, I do think there will be survivors, particularly those companies that differentiate themselves from traditional universities/community colleges by offering industry/job-specific training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focusinvestor Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Good news for ITT Shareholders. The company is still trading below cash on the balance sheet and is profitable. There is still a lot of hair on this company but it should eventually get worked out. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/itt-educational-services-inc-reports-113000459.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Are there any greater value traps than the "for-profit education" companies? (...Aside from SHLD, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Are there any greater value traps than the "for-profit education" companies? (...Aside from SHLD, of course) How is ESI a trap though? Company generates cash like Nolan Ryan generates fastballs. Even current CEO, who shat the bed and has resigned for it, has worked towards righting the wrongs he and his buddies made. Tuition hasn't increased in years, PEAKS is being accounted for, efforts are being put in place to assist students with finding jobs, and their crappy programs are being cut out. What else can you ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focusinvestor Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Are there any greater value traps than the "for-profit education" companies? (...Aside from SHLD, of course) Clearly, for-profit education is controversial. But there is clear value in the area of technical trades (like mechanics), information technology jobs, and health care positions. Not everyone is able to go through the traditional path of ivy league or state school education. Furthermore, many jobs out there require little more than some post high-school training like medical assistants, etc. ITT focuses on real world education so that people can qualify for jobs upon graduation. There is clear value in this. Valuations have profoundly corrected to reflect a new earnings power in the entire industry. We will see what the next few years hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Are there any greater value traps than the "for-profit education" companies? (...Aside from SHLD, of course) Clearly, for-profit education is controversial. But there is clear value in the area of technical trades (like mechanics), information technology jobs, and health care positions. Not everyone is able to go through the traditional path of ivy league or state school education. Furthermore, many jobs out there require little more than some post high-school training like medical assistants, etc. ITT focuses on real world education so that people can qualify for jobs upon graduation. There is clear value in this. Valuations have profoundly corrected to reflect a new earnings power in the entire industry. We will see what the next few years hold. Focusinvestor I'm curious, what valuation range do you have on this company? Can you go into detail how you get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 A few recent events: -GOP with big win makes people speculate that FPE regulations will be loosened. Even though I'm big on ESI, I hope that doesn't happen. ESI can do plenty fine under current conditions, no point in letting greed take over again. The company has started making strides in improving the product it offers, would be a shame if it went back to the crapper just because of this. I'll take a company that nets 150mil year in year out while being useful to society over a company that does 300mil or bankrupt depending on which party is in power. -New filing shows that ESI's auditor PWC will not stick around for 2014 audit. Don't really know what to make of this, it looks like it happened for political reasons more than anything. At least I glean from the filing that the company wants us to see it that way. As I understand it, opinion was unqualified in '12 and '13, but PWC noted a few internal controls had significant weaknesses (surrounding the peaks program, which was not audited for 10k??). Possibly also scared due to increased liquidity pressures? Not sure that's much of an issue, company will still have $100mil cash on BS at year end, and keep generating going forward. -80mil letter of credit was issued as demanded by the ED. Scary line in the filings: "to provide for the “teach-out” of students enrolled at the time of closure of the institution" is a reminder that while the company is making strides, it's still stuck in the woods for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focusinvestor Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Are there any greater value traps than the "for-profit education" companies? (...Aside from SHLD, of course) Clearly, for-profit education is controversial. But there is clear value in the area of technical trades (like mechanics), information technology jobs, and health care positions. Not everyone is able to go through the traditional path of ivy league or state school education. Furthermore, many jobs out there require little more than some post high-school training like medical assistants, etc. ITT focuses on real world education so that people can qualify for jobs upon graduation. There is clear value in this. Valuations have profoundly corrected to reflect a new earnings power in the entire industry. We will see what the next few years hold. Focusinvestor I'm curious, what valuation range do you have on this company? Can you go into detail how you get there? I don't truly have a valuation range... on a pro-forma basis, here is how I view the margin of safety: 1) Cash and restricted cash (via the LOC) of 200mm 2) Unencumbered real estate that eventually could get monetized of at least 150mm 3) ITT is still producing cash which means our asset value is safe Once ITT settles in with normalized cash flows, we could potentially see $2.00 of earnings or more. It all depends on enrollment and utilization. While a lot of for-profit ranges from questionable to bad, ITT has relevancy in this country and economy. Look no further than Strayer to see how they are pushing through their challenges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Are there any greater value traps than the "for-profit education" companies? (...Aside from SHLD, of course) Clearly, for-profit education is controversial. But there is clear value in the area of technical trades (like mechanics), information technology jobs, and health care positions. Not everyone is able to go through the traditional path of ivy league or state school education. Furthermore, many jobs out there require little more than some post high-school training like medical assistants, etc. ITT focuses on real world education so that people can qualify for jobs upon graduation. There is clear value in this. Valuations have profoundly corrected to reflect a new earnings power in the entire industry. We will see what the next few years hold. Focusinvestor I'm curious, what valuation range do you have on this company? Can you go into detail how you get there? I don't truly have a valuation range... on a pro-forma basis, here is how I view the margin of safety: 1) Cash and restricted cash (via the LOC) of 200mm 2) Unencumbered real estate that eventually could get monetized of at least 150mm 3) ITT is still producing cash which means our asset value is safe Once ITT settles in with normalized cash flows, we could potentially see $2.00 of earnings or more. It all depends on enrollment and utilization. While a lot of for-profit ranges from questionable to bad, ITT has relevancy in this country and economy. Look no further than Strayer to see how they are pushing through their challenges. Interesting, that's a very conservative level of earnings power you peg ITT for. Are you figuring $2ps normalized or does that include lawsuits, fines, all that crap? You would need to reach 500mil revenue and 10% net margin, almost impossibly low ex-crap. Even at that level, value would be something like $30ps? ($2epsx8multiple +$14ps in assets as per your calcs). However I try to count the beans, this company seems worth multiples what it is currently trading at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Q2 2014 is out. http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9913187&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=10-Q&dateFiled=2014-11-19 Q1 2014: http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9905422&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=10-Q&dateFiled=2014-11-14 Restated 2013 10k: http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9848558&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=10-K&dateFiled=2014-10-16 Overall very happy with how recent events are unfolding, I think Modany is setting ESI back on a solid track for his successor to drive on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focusinvestor Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Q2 2014 is out. http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9913187&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=10-Q&dateFiled=2014-11-19 Q1 2014: http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9905422&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=10-Q&dateFiled=2014-11-14 Restated 2013 10k: http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=9848558&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=10-K&dateFiled=2014-10-16 Overall very happy with how recent events are unfolding, I think Modany is setting ESI back on a solid track for his successor to drive on. Agreed. And yet, it's still trading at less than liquidation value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 I have been following this name for quite some time, both on the long and short side. The good news in this release is the financing from Cerberus. It will keep the LOC in place from the bank group, but take out the $50m outstanding from the banks. Overall, debt piece will be more expensive. Peaks and RSA will slowly roll off. It is not trading below liquidation value, despite some claims. However, cash flow does appear to give it breathing room to reverse student declines. The current student levels are about break even on a go forward basis with interest and litigation expense. If attendance does not stabilize or increase, the operating leverage works in the opposite direction. The company is in much better position than earlier this year because it is actually filing its financials. This stock is "trading sardines" in the near term--good news moves it a lot and same with bad news. Tough to say after Q2 release. Loan from Cerberus may be viewed positively. Continued earning power declines may keep a lid on the value until any positive movement in student enrollment. My two cents...exactly what it is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I have been following this name for quite some time, both on the long and short side. The good news in this release is the financing from Cerberus. It will keep the LOC in place from the bank group, but take out the $50m outstanding from the banks. Overall, debt piece will be more expensive. Peaks and RSA will slowly roll off. It is not trading below liquidation value, despite some claims. However, cash flow does appear to give it breathing room to reverse student declines. The current student levels are about break even on a go forward basis with interest and litigation expense. If attendance does not stabilize or increase, the operating leverage works in the opposite direction. The company is in much better position than earlier this year because it is actually filing its financials. This stock is "trading sardines" in the near term--good news moves it a lot and same with bad news. Tough to say after Q2 release. Loan from Cerberus may be viewed positively. Continued earning power declines may keep a lid on the value until any positive movement in student enrollment. My two cents...exactly what it is worth. ESI released an 8K to deliver standalone news of Cerberus loan as indicated by roark (you are a beast by the way to pick that up in some random hidden corner of the 10Q, teach me your ways!), divulging at the same time that the co will end the year with $50mil more in unrestricted cash on its balance sheet than anticipated, with $150mil vs. $100mil. News shot the stock up 35% again (about $60mil in market cap). Super duper high volatility on this stock, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes back down to $8 again and then shoots to $12 on 10Q release, or something stupid along those lines. Just holding dearly onto my shares as the roller coaster goes about, one day I'll try trading a similar position to see if I can take advantage of this kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Cerberus deal done, roughly 9.5% interest. Sounds high, but the Peaks and RSA obligations are around 12-13%, so any debt cheaper than that is a positive. The big news was the 150m in cash, as opposed to management estimate of 100m in cash a month earlier on conference call. Stock obviously shot up on this news (given the deal with Cerberus was already disclosed in 10Q), however, I think this is a sleight of hand. You can't misestimate cash by 50m....Instead I think management has decided to forgo 50m in Peaks/RSA payments in order to conserve cash. Otherwise, you have to believe that management was off on their cash flow estimate by $50m. If you believe that, then you should probably sell the stock given how stupid management is for being off that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Something odd is happening, 4 or 5 institutions have taken a position in the last couple of weeks. That's 4 or 5 more than the prior 8 months combined. I'm not gonna bother reading too much into that, but its a peculiar observation thatI know some on here tend to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
focusinvestor Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Something odd is happening, 4 or 5 institutions have taken a position in the last couple of weeks. That's 4 or 5 more than the prior 8 months combined. I'm not gonna bother reading too much into that, but its a peculiar observation thatI know some on here tend to pay attention to. Most of these institutions were already involved. Reporting requirements required the annual disclosure. Steadfast is a new position at 1.1mm shares and Nantahala, a very smart value fund, dramatically increased their position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 They filed a notice of late 10k yesterday due to another VIE consolidation issue ("2009 RSA/program" now). Some nice news though. http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=10154463&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=NT+10-K&dateFiled=2015-03-17 "2009 program" consolidation is expected to bring a gain, which they believe could be material 2014 will be income positive Loan program guarantees losses will probably be < $5mil (vs 90mil in 2013, I think that was kind of expected though as they took a bath in 2013) Hopefully 2014 will be out by or before May 31 They also filed an 8K in regards to the 2009 consolidation this morning but I haven't had a chance to skim it yet. http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=10155445&type=PDF&symbol=ESI&companyName=ITT+Educational+Services+Inc.&formType=8-K&dateFiled=2015-03-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 In the past, i.e. last year, when they have filed these meaningless notices of delays (they filed a lot last year), they provided some rough updates on the business, cash, enrollments, etc. Nothing here. If the company can remain cash flow positive to pay of PEAKS and RSA, it could be worth something, so those are the key figures, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The fact that RSA will have more assets than obligations is pretty meaningful imo, if losses had to be taken like PEAKS that would be up to another 120mil to pay off with cash flow, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 I am not sure I am understand you. The contingent liability of RSA is around 121m, per the latest release. They said they may book a gain, but I think that just means that they had reserved a contingent liability higher than they are actually going to book when they bring it on the balance sheet. The RSA liabilities increase with each year when they don't pay them off because the interest rates on the underlying loans are so high and ESI is responsible for covering any shortfalls. PEAKS and RSA are really just very expensive debt at this point (I think the underlying loans are basically worthless). If ESI can produce cash flow and pay those down quickly or refinance, it's a great good and probably a good price, but that's a big if. And Cerberus is now standing in front of any equity--and given their name, I don't think they take too kindly to people passing through their gates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Yes my bad, my first reaction was "great, more loans receivable than payable!" But obviously that's not even possible. I wonder what the cont. Liab. Amount was recorded on bs last 10q (will check at home) vs. The 120mil now, and what the not-writtenoff amounts receivable will amount to. I dont think these loans will be 100% writeoffs, need to check what is left for PEAKS but I would imagine whats left on the books can be recoverable, or else they would have been written off with all that other crap. So a similar ratio forRSA probably applies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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