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UWN - Nevada Gold


ragnarisapirate

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Anyone still own/follow this name?

 

Stock has been working higher but fundamentals in WA deteriorating and NV casino has yet to earn what management originally guided to.

 

Balance sheet is in good shape and they have ~25% of market cap in cash on hand... should generate another quarter of decent cash flow too...

 

A couple of things worry me: WA minimum wage hike is going to hurt by $400k on top of the 30% decline in EBITDA so far this year, tax assets running out, buyback seems stupid to me as stock is illiquid and they are perfectly happy issuing shares at any price for deals, cash sitting on the B/S and no idea as to how they plan to use it...

 

Anyone have any thoughts here?

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Anyone still own/follow this name?

 

Stock has been working higher but fundamentals in WA deteriorating and NV casino has yet to earn what management originally guided to.

 

Balance sheet is in good shape and they have ~25% of market cap in cash on hand... should generate another quarter of decent cash flow too...

 

A couple of things worry me: WA minimum wage hike is going to hurt by $400k on top of the 30% decline in EBITDA so far this year, tax assets running out, buyback seems stupid to me as stock is illiquid and they are perfectly happy issuing shares at any price for deals, cash sitting on the B/S and no idea as to how they plan to use it...

 

Anyone have any thoughts here?

 

I still look in on the company from time to time, but I no longer have a position, nor do I plan on initiating one...

 

I think your assessment is largely on target.  The company is doing kind of sort of OK....

 

BUT their Dakota acquisition has largely been a turkey...Nevada is kind of sort of OK...but no great shakes.  WA is having trouble, bad weather, higher minimum wage, etc.

 

One thing that I think has been unmentioned and that I see in my personal life is that poker is kind of on a downturn...One big problem with poker is that after a period of time (6 months, 1 year, 2 years) the local area is going to have winners & losers.  Obviously, most players are going to be losers.  The losers will play, win a little, lose a lot, and then they stop playing OR cut back by like 75%.  Poker has to have a continuous inflow of NEW MONEY, NEW PLAYERS to have a healthy ecosystem.

 

In the Detroit area, I see lots of "regulars" who play for a while, then they bust out and disappear.

 

I imagine the same thing is happening in WA.

 

UWN is doing OK, but nothing compelling.  Management is OK, but they aren't big enough to take on any really meaningful deals.  The company is too small, has marginal assets, so they aren't of interest to a bigger player...

 

End result is they are stuck in a bad spot...

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Agreed, I feel the best route for them might be to sell the company or go private... they generate a good amount of cash but this is not a growth story and never will be...

 

The card rooms in WA are a sub-par business at best... receipts have grown something like 1.5% over the last 17 years from ~$187m to $240m or so while tribal casinos eat their lunch (went from $272m in 2000 receipts to $2.3bn last year)... now throw the wage hike into the mix...

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  • 1 year later...
  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

I have no idea... but almost get the feeling that one of their big holders decided to sell their whole stake in one day for some reason.

 

I had the same feeling. I initiated a small position at 2.38 and then added to it later during the day. This happened to CALL on big market down days(not saying we will get same result). It’s likely there are people need liquidity at such time. But who knows. Make sure you size the position.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

The Club Fortune casino has been sold (link). Next step: definitive proxy. Deal is taking a bit longer than expected .. Still, if everything works out: 4% in a few months. Not too bad. Club Fortune sale price is $14.65m - very slightly higher than expected but subject to a post-closing working capital true-up. Not sure how that combination will affect the merger consideration but it's probably not super significant.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Definitive proxy released this morning:

 

Meeting is scheduled for Feb. 22nd, which means that shareholders will likely receive at least $2.51 a share.

 

Transaction still expected to close in "early 2019", which seems a little vague given that it's already nearing the end of January. A reasonable interpretation is probably by or before the end of March.

 

Either party can walk without penalty if the transaction hasn't occurred by April 15th, which is still comfortably in the future.

 

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277058/000114420419002713/tv508341-defm14a.htm

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 months later...

Deal finally closed! Took over six months longer than expected but the good thing is that shareholders got paid a bit for waiting. Final consideration: ~$2.56 (link). I bought the majority of my position end of September 2018 for ~$2.40. IRR about 10%. Bit disappointing but I'll take it.

 

Wondering if it was possible to follow the proceeds somewhere. Price action last four days was definitely indicating something was up. At least I'm glad that I was suspicious enough not to dump my shares at 2.53 a few days ago.

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