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BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants


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"I am thinking that Merrill could not reserve for the CDS because they were not part of any projected losses.  They have been added in as part of a settlement."

 

I think that their litigation reserving is quite a bit sloppy here as well. It does not matter where the losses are or the cash outlays come from once BAC provides consolidated statements. The reserving could be off, but $1.3 billion more mainly for this settlement, since most other monolines have already been taken care of, is enormous.

 

It is especially worrisome since Thompson had a question about it in the latest conference call and hinted that it had been increased to account for the latest developments with monolines. And it is not like MBI got a full payment either for their losses. You would think also that we should see some offset on reserving for other cases like private-label where it is mentioned in the annual report that their litigation could be enhanced with the MBI experience.

 

I am quite happy that they finally put this behind them, but the continued share issuance per other posters, lack of visible profitability and potential delays for it to emerge, and issues like this one on reserving makes me wonder about the long term potential of this investment. I thought I would hold for a very long time and I had a strong projected rate of return from this point, but I may have to ratchet down my expectations.

 

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Here are things that I like on today's report

LAS expense exclusing litigation is down to 2.6B/qtr.Bruce mentioned on the call that it will go down to $2.1B/qtr by end of 2013.

New BAC project is working. Bruce mentioned on the call that after taking out yearly compensation the expense is down to 13B.It will drop by another 300-400m/qtr by year end.

LAS expense and New BAC will provide savings of $800-900m/qtr by Year end.

 

Common equity increased by $4.1B in first qtr.We caould see 2013 TBN between 14-14.5 with the buybacks.

BaseIII tier1 common is increased to 9.42%.It could increase to 10% by year end.BaselIII requirement is 8.5%.This could lead to higher buyback/dividend in 2014.

What I do not like is that they are issuing too many shares probably for compensation.Diluted is now more than 11B.Diluted has increased by around 400m in one year.

 

They granted 283 mio options / restricted stock in 2012. Seems pretty significant indeed on an oustanding base of ~ 11.300 shares.

 

I went back to understand what is happening with shares outstanding.

The 283mln from above is part of cash settled RSUs.

 

Here is a simplified number for shares outstanding excluding the warrants from 2012 to 2011

2012: 10,820.3mln + 147.6mln (RSUs) = 10,967.9mln

2011: 10,732.4mln + 254mln (RSUs) = 10,986.4mln

(I get the first number from the beginning of the 10K and the second from RSUs outstanding at YE)

 

The cash paid to settle equity awards in 2012 & 2011 was: $779mln & $489mln

Share settled restricted stock granted in 2012 & 2011 was: 197mln & 138mln

Increase in shares from grants of ~2%

 

The share count doesn't seem to be rising as much. What may be happening is more of compensation is being transferred to stock like instruments (cash settled RSUs) not stock. The cash settled RSUs look to be rising but in 2012 some 283.2mln were granted but only 54mln vested and these cash settled shares are likely replacing cash compensation.

 

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There was a post in response to mine regarding my annoyance with Moynihan for not buying back stock the first 2.5 weeks of April. Now he is buying back at 12.90 instead of around 12 that it was probably because he was restricted because if the mbia deal.

I read they have been negotiating on this mbia for over a year and they didn't accelerate until 2 weeks ago. It sounds to me that wouldn't have preceded Moynihan from buying back in the first 2.5 weeks.

He could buy back the entire 5b in 4 weeks with semi talented traders without disturbing the price.

Hopefully he wraps this up before the end of may.

That would be nice to see when they report q2 in about 2 months.

 

 

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Re: BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants

« Reply #3656 on: May 07, 2013, 12:09:44 PM »

Quote

So it's almost at tangible book now, albeit 5 months late for Sanjeev's playful forecast."

 

True almost but there is still 6% upside roughly from today to hit tbv so still a ways to go.

Incidentally I think tbv will be about 13.66 when they report in about 9 weeks.

 

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may 30  New York State Supreme Court Justice Barbara Kapnick to decides on the fate of the $8.5 billion settlement truck by bny mellon regarding countrywide mbs

 

 

EDIT: my bad may 30th is the hearing date regarding the 8.5bil settlement

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may 30  New York State Supreme Court Justice Barbara Kapnick to decides on the fate of the $8.5 billion settlement truck by bny mellon regarding countrywide mbs

 

 

quote author=value-is-what-you-get " data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="3167" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" 115708#msg115708 data-ipsquote-timestamp=1368024680]

anyone a little concern for may 30th?

 

looking to buy some puts to protect in the event may 30th turn out very bad for BAC

 

What s on May 30th?

 

In the last conf call, Thompson said he expected a decision by Q3...has something shifted?  I though the May date was another hearing...is this a final ruling now?

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may 30  New York State Supreme Court Justice Barbara Kapnick to decides on the fate of the $8.5 billion settlement truck by bny mellon regarding countrywide mbs

 

 

quote author=value-is-what-you-get " data-ipsquote-contentapp="forums" data-ipsquote-contenttype="forums" data-ipsquote-contentid="3167" data-ipsquote-contentclass="forums_Topic" 115708#msg115708 data-ipsquote-timestamp=1368024680]

anyone a little concern for may 30th?

 

looking to buy some puts to protect in the event may 30th turn out very bad for BAC

 

What s on May 30th?

 

 

That is the hearing date, not the date for the decision.

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AIG had a good victory Monday on the main front, 77 is just for annoying value.  >>

 

I read the ruling and there's an important nuance.  For the stuff AIG sold to Maiden Lane, AIG retains the rights for fraud suits, but not for Reps & Warranties claims.  And, the ruling says, if the Feds get paid for Reps & Warranties, then AIG can't also collect on the same securities for fraud. 

 

My preferred outcome would be for the settlement to fail, and for BAC to simply re-settle on a pro-rata basis with the parties in favor of settling.  This would have BAC paying a small portion of the $8.5Bn settlement - but blocking most avenues to a recovery for the remaining holdouts who will have a difficult time getting to the 25% threshold. 

 

 

Countrywide settlement approval.  AIG won't be pleased :)

 

AIG had a good victory Monday on the main front, 77 is just for annoying value.

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Annual meeting transcript:

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1417341-bank-of-america-s-ceo-hosts-shareholder-analyst-day-transcript?part=single

 

I forgot how these things bring out the nutcases.  Moynihan's comments are good, but you have to scroll through a lot of climate change questions.  Reminds me of my first shareholder meeting I went to with my father when I was 9.  Known gadfly Evelyn Davis was hectoring the board.  Apparently she owned a single share of just about every company just for that privilege.  But that was just one question - now it's the majority of the meeting!

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/us-keycorp-bankofamerica-idUSBRE94902420130510

 

Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) will sell a commercial mortgage servicing rights portfolio valued at around $110 billion to a KeyCorp (KEY.N) unit for an undisclosed amount, the latest offloading of servicing assets which many big banks consider costly to collect on.

 

Bank of America announced similar deals for more than $300 billion of servicing rights earlier this year. Terms of those deals showed comparatively small amounts of money changing hands.

 

It sold servicing rights on $215 billion of mortgages for $1.3 billion to Nationstar Mortage Holdings (NSM.N) and rights to $93 billion of mortgages for $519 million to Walter Investments.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/us-keycorp-bankofamerica-idUSBRE94902420130510

 

Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) will sell a commercial mortgage servicing rights portfolio valued at around $110 billion to a KeyCorp (KEY.N) unit for an undisclosed amount, the latest offloading of servicing assets which many big banks consider costly to collect on.

 

Bank of America announced similar deals for more than $300 billion of servicing rights earlier this year. Terms of those deals showed comparatively small amounts of money changing hands.

 

It sold servicing rights on $215 billion of mortgages for $1.3 billion to Nationstar Mortage Holdings (NSM.N) and rights to $93 billion of mortgages for $519 million to Walter Investments.

 

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think this has to do with capital charges and MSRs being a higher risk weight.  I also think that's why you see people pitching servicing companies because the biggest holders of MSRs are motivated to sell them at potentially low prices.

 

If that's true, I hope Berkadia is gobbling them up.

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I first saw this in a tweet from @NickTimiraos that read "BofA: Schneiderman had no right to sue and is more interested in issuing press releases than helping remedy problems".  I thought, 'wow, that's gutsy of BofA to say that! Good for them!' Alas, he was just embellishing.  Totally true though.

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