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Ericopoy,

 

Do you really think it should have a larger market cap than Wells Fargo? The $77 b discount you are referring to would do that. Just curious?

 

Dazel.

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I have been thinking about what will happen with the big banks after the bond bubble collapses.

 

I expect the bond market to revert to more ordinary interest rates. You can't starve bond investors forever. So I expect all the moat stocks like Walmart, Intel etc. will do well for at least a few years as some bond investors look for alternatives to holding bonds. I like BAC because you buy for a big discount to book and the litigation, loan loss, and dilution risks are all abating. Bond investors love long term dependable cash flows. But perhaps a rise in interest rates to norm and a fall in bond prices will hurt BAC's earnings?

 

Will BAC be a lifeboat when the bond market storm arrives? My guess is that all bond prices will rise including BAC's bonds so that more of BAC's great cash flows are captured by the bond investors while BAC will suffer temporary losses on their bond and derivative holdings. BAC's recovery to book value may be delayed, but the storm will eliminate many smaller competitors, cheap deposits will continue to flood and loan rates will rise following the increase in bond rates.  Overall BAC's long term earnings will increase. Thoughts?

 

I think it is wise to think about what will happen once we go towards more normal interest rates i.e much higher.-as eventually this has to happen

 

My thinking is that interest rates will only be allowed to go up when it won t kill folks financially. For now interest rates has to stay lower than GDP growth.

 

Once rates go up it will help banks as they will be able to earn more

 

I believe rising interest rates will eventually take money away from other parts of the stock market, depending on valuation and  interest rate/bond yield.

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I believe rising interest rates will eventually take money away from other parts of the stock market, depending on valuation and  interest rate/bond yield.

 

I guess it is hard to know because of all of the fed activity, but the rates could be low because everyone has run to treasuries instead of equities/other investments, so if they rose, wouldn't that mean less people were buying treasuries?  Perhaps it would mean that in a normal environment (absent all the fed activity), but not now though...

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ah, makes sense. thanks man. You are a true gangsta. ;)

 

I'm working on cutting my first gangsta album, drawing inspiration from Naughty by Nature.

 

Track 1:

Price Down Value Up...  That's The time to load the Truck

Track 2:

OPP (Other People's Panic)  You down with OPP, yah you know me.

 

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ah, makes sense. thanks man. You are a true gangsta. ;)

 

I'm working on cutting my first gangsta album, drawing inspiration from Naughty by Nature.

 

Track 1:

Price Down Value Up...  That's The time to load the Truck

Track 2:

OPP (Other People's Panic)  You down with OPP, yah you know me.

 

How about "You down with OPP,  L. E. A. Ps" Say each letter on its own to match the original.

 

Also C.R.E.A.M, Calls rule everything around me.

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ah, makes sense. thanks man. You are a true gangsta. ;)

 

I'm working on cutting my first gangsta album, drawing inspiration from Naughty by Nature.

 

Track 1:

Price Down Value Up...  That's The time to load the Truck

Track 2:

OPP (Other People's Panic)  You down with OPP, yah you know me.

 

 

 

We'll call you "50 cent" as a reflection of your margin of safety....  Wait a minute, that moniker is already taken by another gangsta rapper.  :P

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ah, makes sense. thanks man. You are a true gangsta. ;)

 

I'm working on cutting my first gangsta album, drawing inspiration from Naughty by Nature.

 

Track 1:

Price Down Value Up...  That's The time to load the Truck

Track 2:

OPP (Other People's Panic)  You down with OPP, yah you know me.

 

 

 

We'll call you "50 cent" as a reflection of your margin of safety....  Wait a minute, that moniker is already taken by another gangsta rapper.  :P

 

Call him "25 cent" then.  After all why go after 50 cent dollars when you can go after 25 cent dollars.

 

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Ericopoy,

 

Do you really think it should have a larger market cap than Wells Fargo? The $77 b discount you are referring to would do that. Just curious?

 

Dazel.

 

Total Common Equity

BAC 220 billion  WFC 142 billion

 

Tangible Common Equity

BAC 142 billion  WFC 104 billion

 

Total Assets

BAC 2.2 trillion  WFC 1.37 trillion

 

I think BAC should have a higher market cap.

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Track 2:

"OPP (Other People's Panic)  You down with OPP, yah you know me."

Hilarious!

 

Eric just gave away his age...as well as his taste in music!    8)  Cheers!

 

Oh, but wouldn't it be funny to add this line before sharing your results in the annual letter to shareholders...

 

You are now about to witness the strength of street knowledge.

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Here's some interesting knowledge about BAC options in the last year.

 

Bank of America Ripe For A Breakout

2013-01-04 Forbes.com

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/01/04/bank-of-america-ripe-for-a-breakout/

 

Elsewhere, the stock’s Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.75 sits just 12 percentage points from a 52-week peak. Or, in simpler terms, short-term options players have rarely been more put-heavy on BAC during the past year. An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could act as a contrarian tailwind for the stock.

 

In fact, the security’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) currently stands at 100, suggesting BAC’s options are relatively inexpensive relative to the probability of an outsized move on the charts.

 

 

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$12 is still very, very, cheap  8)

 

Eric,...

 

Let me give you a high-five in your hands,... I myself would consider them still extremely cheap.  ;D

 

I see here certain very simple patterns like... Gödel, Escher, Bach. ::) Some sucking move of the current valuation to the center gravitational field that is itself moving upward,... i.e. book value.

 

Comparable with Fairfax situation when it moved from $50-60 something in 2003 to $120 in the middle of the last decade (around 2006). Now, just overlay BAC valuation moves from $5 to $12. And where is FFH today,... (at/around $360 something !!! ),... so most BAC holders have only the slightest idea in what quantum leaps it's headed over the next years ---  Just take a digit away.

 

I figure if they earn a dollar this year as the analysts expect, then it really earns $1.40-$1.50 considering the usage of NOLs.  Then if earning $1.40 next year, then really it's roughly $2 in earnings.  Then for 2015 if the issues are cleaned up, it can still go on earning $2.

 

So, the stock should probably be at least $14 already if valued at 10x forward, yet that leaves it too cheap because it needs to jump to $20 the very next year in order to remain at 10x forward. 

 

So perhaps it should somewhat above $14 today -- maybe $16+?

 

Even the current earnings estimates at Yahoo! Finance are between $0.60-1.35,... and with an average of around $0.97. ---> http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BAC+Analyst+Estimates

 

There are even some courageous estimates for already this year that make Eric's estimate look pretty conservative  ::).

 

-----

 

Bank of America Rally Continues Into 2013

2013-01-02 WSJ.com

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2013/01/02/bank-of-america-rally-continues-into-new-year/

 

Analyst Andrew Marquardt thinks the capital concerns are “behind” BofA, so investors will start to focus on its earnings power, which the analyst has high hopes for. He sees 2013 EPS at $1.69 a share, 76% above consensus estimates, as measured by Thomson Reuters

 

-----

 

 

 

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Bank of America ordered to release more documents related to MBIA case.  Probably why the rally in MBIA today.  This may force BAC to finally come to some sort of settlement, as I'm sure they don't want alot of information to go public.  Cheers!

 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11804771/1/bank-of-america-ordered-to-unseal-documents-in-mbia-case.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

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