PlanMaestro Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 American Banker on the Fannie settlement. (video) http://www.americanbanker.com/video/bank-of-america-in-mortgage-settlement-with-fannie-mae1055632-1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin4u2 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Does this mean BAC will start selling loans to Fannie again? No mention in the press release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here is a table of R&W for BAC. $645 billion in principal is outstanding as of Q3, 2012 for loans originated during 2004-2008, of which $370 billion is with GSE and with today's agreement all the GSE exposure is covered. The R&W principal exposure still outstanding is $127 billion (Private label and whole loans) if we can assume that the BNY mellon settlement goes through. Feel much better with the R&W exposures now. VinodRW.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Where is WEB? Wasn't one of the reasons he got the deal he got, was that it implied him saying wonderful things about Moynihan as he performed? We don't want to lose this guy. Shouldn't someone start campaigning for Moynihan? Can Brian Moynihan Survive Long Enough to Fix B of A? http://www.americanbanker.com/countdown2013/news/can-brian-moynihan-survive-long-enough-to-fix-bofa-1055510-1.html?zkPrintable=1&nopagination=1 I liked this quote by Moynihan that was in the article: Moynihan acknowledged the somewhat absurd balancing act he faces: "We want to be the biggest company we can be to impact our customers; and the smallest, most efficient company we can be for our shareholders and equity," he said at the Goldman Sachs conference. So far, so good! Cheers! The stock market is campaigning for Moynihan these days. :) No need for Buffett. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Ok, so I was a little early with the tangible book by Christmas prediction! I've got a new one for 2013. - Legacy issues slip, sliding away. - Bulk of "New BAC" reductions should be in place by mid-year. - Servicing costs will drop like a rock through 2013. - Housing prices remain firm, or modestly higher, so loan loss reserves will continue to modestly improve. - Interest income will not go any lower than it is now. - Long-term debt costs will also continue to drop. Here is this year's Christmas gift...BAC hits $17.50 by Christmas 2013. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here is a table of R&W for BAC. $645 billion in principal is outstanding as of Q3, 2012 for loans originated during 2004-2008, of which $370 billion is with GSE and with today's agreement all the GSE exposure is covered. The R&W principal exposure still outstanding is $127 billion (Private label and whole loans) if we can assume that the BNY mellon settlement goes through. Feel much better with the R&W exposures now. Vinod Thanks for that Vinod, just what I was going to go back and do--do you know what the remaining $370 GSE corresponds to if there are agreements from Freddie and Fannie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This settlement was approximately $3B accretive to BAC according to my calculations.... At of 3Q12, I estimated remaining Agency exposure was $9.7B based on at-risk UPB of $45B and a 21.5% settlement rate (per settlements to-date). However, this FNME settlement provides a much cleaner framework to analyze remaining Agency exposure.... The press release says unresolved claims with FNME were $11.2B of UPB at the time of settlement - the $3.6B cash payment plus $2.5B of additional R&W reserve thus implies a settlement rate of 54%. Unresolved claims as of 3Q12 were $12.3B (page 64 of the 10Q) - assuming that figure is still relevant as of the FNME settlement, remaining unresolved claims are then $1.1B ($12.3B - $11.2B). At a 54% settlement rate, remaining Agency exposure is then $599. $3B accretion = $9.7B initial agency exposure estimate - $6.1B FNME settlement - $600MM remaining Agency exposure. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Here is a table of R&W for BAC. $645 billion in principal is outstanding as of Q3, 2012 for loans originated during 2004-2008, of which $370 billion is with GSE and with today's agreement all the GSE exposure is covered. The R&W principal exposure still outstanding is $127 billion (Private label and whole loans) if we can assume that the BNY mellon settlement goes through. Feel much better with the R&W exposures now. Vinod Thanks for that Vinod, just what I was going to go back and do--do you know what the remaining $370 GSE corresponds to if there are agreements from Freddie and Fannie? I have listed all of the outstanding principal. $73 billion is covered in BAC agreement with Freddie. The $297 billion should be covered with today's BAC agreement with Fannie. So the $370 billion in total should be completely covered with the agreements in place as of today. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I have listed all of the outstanding principal. $73 billion is covered in BAC agreement with Freddie. The $297 billion should be covered with today's BAC agreement with Fannie. So the $370 billion in total should be completely covered with the agreements in place as of today. Vinod Oh, I see, I thought it meant still outstanding after the agreement. Still though, I thought the GSE some was higher than the 11 billion they mentioned, e.g., similar to what bmichaud just posted (9.7 billion remaining agency exposure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This settlement was approximately $3B accretive to BAC according to my calculations.... At of 3Q12, I estimated remaining Agency exposure was $9.7B based on at-risk UPB of $45B and a 21.5% settlement rate (per settlements to-date). However, this FNME settlement provides a much cleaner framework to analyze remaining Agency exposure.... The press release says unresolved claims with FNME were $11.2B of UPB at the time of settlement - the $3.6B cash payment plus $2.5B of additional R&W reserve thus implies a settlement rate of 54%. Unresolved claims as of 3Q12 were $12.3B (page 64 of the 10Q) - assuming that figure is still relevant as of the FNME settlement, remaining unresolved claims are then $1.1B ($12.3B - $11.2B). At a 54% settlement rate, remaining Agency exposure is then $599. $3B accretion = $9.7B initial agency exposure estimate - $6.1B FNME settlement - $600MM remaining Agency exposure. Not too shabby. Since this settlement covers all of the UPB for loans orginiated between 2000-2009, the 54% rate you use might not be valid as this would include some estimate for future unresolved claims that Fannie must have estimated. I do not think there would be a need for any additional estimate for unresolved claims although the $599 million is not very material for BAC. :) Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I have listed all of the outstanding principal. $73 billion is covered in BAC agreement with Freddie. The $297 billion should be covered with today's BAC agreement with Fannie. So the $370 billion in total should be completely covered with the agreements in place as of today. Vinod Oh, I see, I thought it meant still outstanding after the agreement. Still though, I thought the GSE some was higher than the 11 billion they mentioned, e.g., similar to what bmichaud just posted (9.7 billion remaining agency exposure). I think the differences were due to the dates at which they have been estimated. bmichaud numbers are as of Q3, I would think when they are coming up with a settlement they would use the then current numbers. In any case, the press release states this covers all the loans from 2000-2008 and states that the UPB is roughly $300 billion which matches with the $297 billion they had in 3Q. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This settlement was approximately $3B accretive to BAC according to my calculations.... At of 3Q12, I estimated remaining Agency exposure was $9.7B based on at-risk UPB of $45B and a 21.5% settlement rate (per settlements to-date). However, this FNME settlement provides a much cleaner framework to analyze remaining Agency exposure.... The press release says unresolved claims with FNME were $11.2B of UPB at the time of settlement - the $3.6B cash payment plus $2.5B of additional R&W reserve thus implies a settlement rate of 54%. Unresolved claims as of 3Q12 were $12.3B (page 64 of the 10Q) - assuming that figure is still relevant as of the FNME settlement, remaining unresolved claims are then $1.1B ($12.3B - $11.2B). At a 54% settlement rate, remaining Agency exposure is then $599. $3B accretion = $9.7B initial agency exposure estimate - $6.1B FNME settlement - $600MM remaining Agency exposure. Not too shabby. Since this settlement covers all of the UPB for loans orginiated between 2000-2009, the 54% rate you use might not be valid as this would include some estimate for future unresolved claims that Fannie must have estimated. I do not think there would be a need for any additional estimate for unresolved claims although the $599 million is not very material for BAC. :) Vinod Correct - I'm being relatively conservative assuming the $11.2B is what they used to settle. And yes, the $599 is not material, but interesting to note nonetheless 8) What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" EQUALS $7.5B potentially available for an MBI settlement. MBI has booked $3.3B of the $5B it claims BAC owes them.....the above calculation shows BAC could more than foot a $5B bill to get MBI out of its hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" EQUALS $7.5B potentially available for an MBI settlement. MBI has booked $3.3B of the $5B it claims BAC owes them.....the above calculation shows BAC could more than foot a $5B bill to get MBI out of its hair. The $4 billion possible loss has not been reserved. I guess you meant $7.5 billion could be spent and market would not be negatively surprised since they projected $4 billion of potential additional losses. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" EQUALS $7.5B potentially available for an MBI settlement. MBI has booked $3.3B of the $5B it claims BAC owes them.....the above calculation shows BAC could more than foot a $5B bill to get MBI out of its hair. The $4 billion possible loss has not been reserved. I guess you meant $7.5 billion could be spent and market would not be negatively surprised since they projected $4 billion of potential additional losses. Vinod Right, exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This settlement was approximately $3B accretive to BAC according to my calculations.... At of 3Q12, I estimated remaining Agency exposure was $9.7B based on at-risk UPB of $45B and a 21.5% settlement rate (per settlements to-date). However, this FNME settlement provides a much cleaner framework to analyze remaining Agency exposure.... The press release says unresolved claims with FNME were $11.2B of UPB at the time of settlement - the $3.6B cash payment plus $2.5B of additional R&W reserve thus implies a settlement rate of 54%. Unresolved claims as of 3Q12 were $12.3B (page 64 of the 10Q) - assuming that figure is still relevant as of the FNME settlement, remaining unresolved claims are then $1.1B ($12.3B - $11.2B). At a 54% settlement rate, remaining Agency exposure is then $599. $3B accretion = $9.7B initial agency exposure estimate - $6.1B FNME settlement - $600MM remaining Agency exposure. Not too shabby. Since this settlement covers all of the UPB for loans orginiated between 2000-2009, the 54% rate you use might not be valid as this would include some estimate for future unresolved claims that Fannie must have estimated. I do not think there would be a need for any additional estimate for unresolved claims although the $599 million is not very material for BAC. :) Vinod Correct - I'm being relatively conservative assuming the $11.2B is what they used to settle. And yes, the $599 is not material, but interesting to note nonetheless 8) What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" EQUALS $7.5B potentially available for an MBI settlement. MBI has booked $3.3B of the $5B it claims BAC owes them.....the above calculation shows BAC could more than foot a $5B bill to get MBI out of its hair. Mbia is suing several mortgage sellers/services. The $3.2 billion figure is the total figure for all litigation. The amount booked for BAC alone is only a portion of that figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This settlement was approximately $3B accretive to BAC according to my calculations.... At of 3Q12, I estimated remaining Agency exposure was $9.7B based on at-risk UPB of $45B and a 21.5% settlement rate (per settlements to-date). However, this FNME settlement provides a much cleaner framework to analyze remaining Agency exposure.... The press release says unresolved claims with FNME were $11.2B of UPB at the time of settlement - the $3.6B cash payment plus $2.5B of additional R&W reserve thus implies a settlement rate of 54%. Unresolved claims as of 3Q12 were $12.3B (page 64 of the 10Q) - assuming that figure is still relevant as of the FNME settlement, remaining unresolved claims are then $1.1B ($12.3B - $11.2B). At a 54% settlement rate, remaining Agency exposure is then $599. $3B accretion = $9.7B initial agency exposure estimate - $6.1B FNME settlement - $600MM remaining Agency exposure. Not too shabby. Since this settlement covers all of the UPB for loans orginiated between 2000-2009, the 54% rate you use might not be valid as this would include some estimate for future unresolved claims that Fannie must have estimated. I do not think there would be a need for any additional estimate for unresolved claims although the $599 million is not very material for BAC. :) Vinod Correct - I'm being relatively conservative assuming the $11.2B is what they used to settle. And yes, the $599 is not material, but interesting to note nonetheless 8) What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" EQUALS $7.5B potentially available for an MBI settlement. MBI has booked $3.3B of the $5B it claims BAC owes them.....the above calculation shows BAC could more than foot a $5B bill to get MBI out of its hair. Mbia is suing several mortgage sellers/services. The $3.2 billion figure is the total figure for all litigation. The amount booked for BAC alone is only a portion of that figure. Here's the last paragraph of the Barron's article out today (posted in the MBI thread): The potential private-label losses for Bank of America, in the aggregate, dwarf the $4.0 billion-$5.0 billion MBIA is after. We continue to believe MBIA will ultimately recover a net amount of $2.0 billion-$3.0 billion from Bank of America after commuting all of its structured commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) pool wraps. Appears to imply MBI is after $4B to $5B from BAC. What would you say the number is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This settlement was approximately $3B accretive to BAC according to my calculations.... At of 3Q12, I estimated remaining Agency exposure was $9.7B based on at-risk UPB of $45B and a 21.5% settlement rate (per settlements to-date). However, this FNME settlement provides a much cleaner framework to analyze remaining Agency exposure.... The press release says unresolved claims with FNME were $11.2B of UPB at the time of settlement - the $3.6B cash payment plus $2.5B of additional R&W reserve thus implies a settlement rate of 54%. Unresolved claims as of 3Q12 were $12.3B (page 64 of the 10Q) - assuming that figure is still relevant as of the FNME settlement, remaining unresolved claims are then $1.1B ($12.3B - $11.2B). At a 54% settlement rate, remaining Agency exposure is then $599. $3B accretion = $9.7B initial agency exposure estimate - $6.1B FNME settlement - $600MM remaining Agency exposure. Not too shabby. Since this settlement covers all of the UPB for loans orginiated between 2000-2009, the 54% rate you use might not be valid as this would include some estimate for future unresolved claims that Fannie must have estimated. I do not think there would be a need for any additional estimate for unresolved claims although the $599 million is not very material for BAC. :) Vinod Correct - I'm being relatively conservative assuming the $11.2B is what they used to settle. And yes, the $599 is not material, but interesting to note nonetheless 8) What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" EQUALS $7.5B potentially available for an MBI settlement. MBI has booked $3.3B of the $5B it claims BAC owes them.....the above calculation shows BAC could more than foot a $5B bill to get MBI out of its hair. Mbia is suing several mortgage sellers/services. The $3.2 billion figure is the total figure for all litigation. The amount booked for BAC alone is only a portion of that figure. Here's the last paragraph of the Barron's article out today (posted in the MBI thread): The potential private-label losses for Bank of America, in the aggregate, dwarf the $4.0 billion-$5.0 billion MBIA is after. We continue to believe MBIA will ultimately recover a net amount of $2.0 billion-$3.0 billion from Bank of America after commuting all of its structured commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) pool wraps. Appears to imply MBI is after $4B to $5B from BAC. What would you say the number is? That is what they are suing BAC for. Not what they reserved for in regards to BAC. I've seen the media get lots of things wrong in this litigation. Total recoveries booked was $3.2 billion as of last quarter end. The amount reserved for BAC alone hasn't been disclosed but I believe is less than $2 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Makes sense - thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Other then MBI doesn't BAC still have to deal with AIG for their loan losses? To my knowlege AIG is not part of the Bank of New York Mellon agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Correct - I'm being relatively conservative assuming the $11.2B is what they used to settle. And yes, the $599 is not material, but interesting to note nonetheless 8) What is really interesting is what is potentially available for an MBI settlement..... 3Q12 R&W reserve $16,269 BNY Settlement (-) 8,600 FNME Loss (-) 6,100 Est. Remaining Agency Exp. (-) 600 R&W Addition (+) 2,500 Updated R&W Reserve $3,469 PLUS $4B of "possible loss above existing accruals" PLUS undisclosed reserves … probably specific to MBIA (they said the reason not to disclose them was litigation). There are also some Private Label litigation not included in the New York Mellon settlement (ie: AIG) and the AGs making noise, but seems like the BAC anaconda digested the biggest issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 BofA deal is at a high cost but eases fears http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b6d5f5c2-58e7-11e2-b59d-00144feab49a.html It was not until last month, when Mr Moynihan praised Fannie Mae during a speech in Washington, that the talks began to make progress, Fannie Mae officials said. Mr Moynihan’s positive posture reassured Fannie Mae executives. Monday’s settlement opens the door to a full resumption of BofA’s relationship with Fannie Mae, officials said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 BAC's "beta" has been doing a poor job of indicating how it will trade relative to the market. How long does it take for the "beta" to reflect new patterns -- in other words how many past days of trading go into that "beta" computation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 BAC's "beta" has been doing a poor job of indicating how it will trade relative to the market. How long does it take for the "beta" to reflect new patterns -- in other words how many past days of trading go into that "beta" computation? Yes, because then the dumb money will really start to flow. Brokers will be buying it for all of their trading accounts. Wait till it pays a 3.5% dividend...they won't be able to buy it fast enough for the client accounts that belong to seniors! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinod1 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Other then MBI doesn't BAC still have to deal with AIG for their loan losses? To my knowlege AIG is not part of the Bank of New York Mellon agreement. Correct but the AIG litigation is about MBS securitization and there is still doubt about BAC culpability. All the numbers above on UPB are about R&W where it is only a question of how much BAC would need to pay. Vinod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomcapital Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 BAC's "beta" has been doing a poor job of indicating how it will trade relative to the market. How long does it take for the "beta" to reflect new patterns -- in other words how many past days of trading go into that "beta" computation? I remember from my bschool days (please don't hate the playa, hate the game) beta was calculated with 3 or 5 year monthly data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now