berkshiremystery Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This of course is good news for the 2015 call options. The kids may start to believe again if they here Santa's bell ringing strong by the end of 2014. Today they don't believe in Christmas. Eric,... don't scare the kids,... seems you came last Christmas in a Scrooge McDuck costume, giving them linear algebra math books as presents ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This of course is good news for the 2015 call options. The kids may start to believe again if they here Santa's bell ringing strong by the end of 2014. Today they don't believe in Christmas. What strike price do you own for the 2015's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mike Mayo's line of questioning is interesting...demonstrates how confused the analysts are over the legal exposures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This of course is good news for the 2015 call options. The kids may start to believe again if they here Santa's bell ringing strong by the end of 2014. Today they don't believe in Christmas. What strike price do you own for the 2015's? Mostly the $7s but a few $10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This of course is good news for the 2015 call options. The kids may start to believe again if they here Santa's bell ringing strong by the end of 2014. Today they don't believe in Christmas. What strike price do you own for the 2015's? Mostly the $7s but a few $10s. Just bought 100 of the 2015 $10s at $3.03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRH Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Always useful to see what the naysayers are claiming: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/frightening-truth-behind-bank-americas-earnings Seems to me that it makes sense for reserve releases to follow NPL's downward but I guess they have a different perspective. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Always useful to see what the naysayers are claiming: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/frightening-truth-behind-bank-americas-earnings Seems to me that it makes sense for reserve releases to follow NPL's downward but I guess they have a different perspective. ;) There was confusion on the conference call as well given the large size -- so I expect this will be replayed by more retards like Tyler Durden before we've heard the end of it: Edward Najarian - ISI Group: Then I guess my second question is just fairly technical, but when I look at what you've outlined in terms of reserve recapture, it looks like about $900 million in terms of the loan loss reserve, a $2.2 provision and $ 3.1billion charge-offs, but it looks like the loan loss reserve itself dropped by about $2 billion from the third quarter. Can you reconcile that for me? Bruce R. Thompson - CFO: The reason it dropped by that amount is that – and you saw it in the third as well as the fourth quarter, that some of the DOJ/AG Settlement modification and other things, that is, as you disposed get repaid of write off the purchased credit impaired portfolio, it reduces your loan loss reserve. Edward Najarian - ISI Group: Then that's not coming through the charge off line? Bruce R. Thompson - CFO: That's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Always useful to see what the naysayers are claiming: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/frightening-truth-behind-bank-americas-earnings Seems to me that it makes sense for reserve releases to follow NPL's downward but I guess they have a different perspective. ;) I never understand why it's such a conspiracy when earnings improve due to reserve releases, but it's all ok when earnings are punished due to increases in reserves. Reserves go up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Always useful to see what the naysayers are claiming: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/frightening-truth-behind-bank-americas-earnings Seems to me that it makes sense for reserve releases to follow NPL's downward but I guess they have a different perspective. ;) I never understand why it's such a conspiracy when earnings improve due to reserve releases, but it's all ok when earnings are punished due to increases in reserves. Reserves go up and down. Yup. Same with earnings spruced by utilizing tax losses. At some point they've already paid these things out...now they are just monetizing the assets...be it reserves or NOL's. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 BAC Says Repaying Buffett May Have to Wait Until 8% Preferreds Are Redeemed: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/bofa-says-repaying-buffett-may-wait-until-8-preferreds-redeemed.html?cmpid=yhoo Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Always useful to see what the naysayers are claiming: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/frightening-truth-behind-bank-americas-earnings Seems to me that it makes sense for reserve releases to follow NPL's downward but I guess they have a different perspective. ;) I never understand why it's such a conspiracy when earnings improve due to reserve releases, but it's all ok when earnings are punished due to increases in reserves. Reserves go up and down. Under any big bath in general and with banks in particular you tend to have over reserving during a crisis. Even more so when you have a new CEO taking over at the bottom, which is usually part of the package anyway. When studying banking crises in the US over the last 100 years you will see that pattern repeat itself in every crisis. Over reserving and then the releases. It just tends to fall outside the frame of reference of the average Wall Street guy. But then you know that already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Tom Brown likes BAC http://www.bloomberg.com/video/bofa-shares-significantly-undervalued-brown-says-VeomEAYDTBa1ExVFuwHSww.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 topped off a little common at $11.28. Any other takers today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PLynchJr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep. I added a little more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I added some warrants in my taxable account and options in my retirement account today. Just a tiny amount compared with what I already hold in both accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There was plenty to like in today's report. Legacy issues are getting resolved quickly now. The stress tests and anything that happens with MBIA will be catalysts. You can sort of think about today's price as Mr Market offering you a free option on increased mortgage lending, which seems like a certainty. I got lucky. After the new year I sold a bunch of warrants and calls. I've been buying them back this week as the prices have come down. So now the question: what does everyone think the market didn't like today, or was surprised about, and does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So now the question: what does everyone think the market didn't like today, or was surprised about, and does it matter? I saw quite a few articles about the revenue coming down (e.g., lowest revenue in Q4 since 2008). Also, no guidance on the dividend/buyback ask, unlike most of the other banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There was plenty to like in today's report. Legacy issues are getting resolved quickly now. The stress tests and anything that happens with MBIA will be catalysts. You can sort of think about today's price as Mr Market offering you a free option on increased mortgage lending, which seems like a certainty. I got lucky. After the new year I sold a bunch of warrants and calls. I've been buying them back this week as the prices have come down. So now the question: what does everyone think the market didn't like today, or was surprised about, and does it matter? My opinion is that the market is not looking at BAC the same way we are here- they are focused on short term performance- earnings, profits this quarter- and are not appreciating the shrinking (see Eric's post) pig in the python with the potential for $2-3 per share in earnings. Market will catch on (and will like it better) when selling at $25 and earning $2.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberhound Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I bought some class A warrants and commons. After buying out the high dividend preferred shares my bet is they copy WFC and buy Tarp warrants before raising their prices by paying higher dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Thats an interesting observation Aberhound. Beats me why the stock went down. I mean they told us what the earnings would be nearly two weeks ago. Bought some 12 x 2015s the last three days including today, around 2.15 - 2.20. Something will need to go seriously wrong if we dont exceed 14.15 within two years. Sold some deep in the money 2014s to pay for the others. Total position over 100 k options including warrants. Mostly 2 year or 6 yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 So now the question: what does everyone think the market didn't like today, or was surprised about, and does it matter? I saw quite a few articles about the revenue coming down (e.g., lowest revenue in Q4 since 2008). Also, no guidance on the dividend/buyback ask, unlike most of the other banks. The revenue coming down was expected though at the time the settlements were announced. All the analysts learned about this (who didn't already know) in the Q&A of the Q2 2011 conference call when Mike Mayo asked Moynihan where the revenue went. Moynihan informed him that it was destroyed by the R&W provisioning (counts as a subtraction from revenue). From today's release: Fourth-quarter 2012 revenue, net of interest expense, on an FTE basis, excluding $0.7 billion of debit valuation and fair value option adjustments, was $19.6 billion; excluding $3.0 billion of provisions for representations and warranties and obligations related to mortgage insurance rescissions related to settlement agreements with the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) revenue net of interest expense, on an FTE basis, was $22.6 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuecfa Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Glad to hear Mayo opine on the risk of successor liability and the impact it may or may not have on private label litigation...and Brian's vague response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I bought some class A warrants and commons. After buying out the high dividend preferred shares my bet is they copy WFC and buy Tarp warrants before raising their prices by paying higher dividends. I thought when WFC did that they bought back a huge block before the auction. AFAIK BAC can only buy warrants on the open market which is low liquidity and I doubt WEB will sell his back. Did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mankap Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Brian mentioned about recurring earning levels for return of capital in response to question from Ed Najarian. Is he alluding to Net Income ? Does it mean that Fed wants to see recurring Net Income to allow return of capital. ISI Group You know with the capital ratios up significantly and credit quality getting better, the mortgage repurchase risk getting resolved over time. Could you give us any thoughts in terms of how you’re thinking about capital return for 2013? We’ve had a number of the other big banks, JPMorgan, Wells, USB. At least give us some insight in terms of how they’re thinking about capital return for this year going into the C-Cor, wondered if you’d be willing to do the same? Thanks. Brian Moynihan - President and CEO I think I’d say that that we completed our results. We’re in a better position this year than last year and we’ll let you know once we get through the test. I think it’s -- the Fed is doing it’s work and -- but we’ve included people that -- here the issue for us is not necessary capital levels, balance sheet cleanup and stuff, it is the issues of occurring earnings levels, consistent on that and we’ll let you know once we get there. But Bruce and the team have done a great job on submitting it and we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Brian mentioned about recurring earning levels for return of capital in response to question from Ed Najarian. Is he alluding to Net Income ? Does it mean that Fed wants to see recurring Net Income to allow return of capital. He has mentioned this before. I tried to explain it once with the machine gun analogy. You've got a trench defended by multiple machine gunes. Trouble is, they're jammed. Instead, you've got lots of barbed wire and sand bags (capital) to defend your trench. Should the shooting get really thick, you'll sleep much better with fully functioning machine guns. I would if I was in that trench. So even if their capital levels are high and a bit excessive, without that machine gun the trench is just nowhere near as well defended. So I believe the Fed wants that LAS expense to come down so their trench is better defended. Once the Great Depression 2 hits and we're in the thick of it, the capital cushion only lasts so long perhaps -- the rate at which you can augment it with earnings matters considerably. Maybe you can capitalize the power of the earnings and think of that like a capital buffer, so to speak. Until then, the Fed might just tell them that more sand bags and barbed wire are needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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