fareastwarriors Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304788404579524142169020908?mod=Markets_newsreel_2 Fat Lady Just Won't Sing at BofA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Re: BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants « Reply #4819 on: Today at 08:42:01 AM » Quote GM = unions...autoworkers...working class BAC = "Fat Cats"...Romney..."banksters"...boo...hiss For the Obama crowd this is an easy choice when it comes to a pound of flesh. That's true, we shouldn't be surprised since after jpm massive settlements justice said it would be a template for other banks. Tbv will be stuck below 14 for another quarter. The stock would rally if this was the last big check but it might be many more billions to go. A statement from Moynihan that they are in the 8th inning would help but even he doesn't know. By 2017 I don't think they can be touched as all the statute of limitations should be up unless Obama sets up another task force to reinterpret the statute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Does anyone think they will have to halt share buybacks this quarter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daytripper Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 GM = unions...autoworkers...working class Really? When I hear GM I think Corvette and GMC trucks, but then again, I've always been product oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 After paying 65 billions, why do you guys think now that this will keep going forever? We are certainly closer to the end than from the beginning. But i agree with you, i am pissed off too about this situation. What other llawsuits can we expect? We are now more than 5 years away from the crisis. Thoses lawsuits cannot keep coming every quarter for another 5 years, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 A statement from Moynihan that they are in the 8th inning would help but even he doesn't know. And being in the 8th inning doesn't tell us how many innings are left. May 8th, 1984. Chicago 7 vs Milwaukee 6 25 innings. However, personally, I feel like we're getting down to the end of this mess. Grand Finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 After paying 65 billions, why do you guys think now that this will keep going forever? We are certainly closer to the end than from the beginning. But i agree with you, i am pissed off too about this situation. What other llawsuits can we expect? We are now more than 5 years away from the crisis. Thoses lawsuits cannot keep coming every quarter for another 5 years, no? Is there not a statue of limitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 The civil lawsuits (like say Allstate vs. Bank of America, or Mr. X vs. Countrywide) are pretty much past the statute of limitations. DOJ and/or attorney's general possibly have an agreement with BAC to extend the statute of limitations while they negotiate a settlement. The larger problem is that the government is simultaneously a prosecutor and a regulator (aka judge/jury/executioner). Because regulatory punishments can be severe and/or punitive (they can arbitrarily halt capital returns, they could even revoke a banking license), the banks are subservient in a way that wouldn't be true if another company were suing them. FHFA is another example of that - regardless of the merits, you can't really be in the mortgage business if the FHFA doesn't do business with you - so you negotiate with them regardless of the laws on that basis. I think BAC (and its shareholders) have to grin and bear it, unfortunately. I don't think they have a lot of recourse. You'll noticed even usually-cocky Jamie Dimon has basically rolled over. After paying 65 billions, why do you guys think now that this will keep going forever? We are certainly closer to the end than from the beginning. But i agree with you, i am pissed off too about this situation. What other llawsuits can we expect? We are now more than 5 years away from the crisis. Thoses lawsuits cannot keep coming every quarter for another 5 years, no? Is there not a statue of limitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 BAC suspends previously announced repurchase & dividend increase Not good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. BAC suspends previously announced repurchase & dividend increase Not good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. BAC suspends previously announced repurchase & dividend increase Not good.. Yeah, this looks like it will probably be a non-issue. However, I do understand why everybody is so jumpy. Everybody, including me, was afraid that another big settlement was on the horizon that the Fed and BAC knows about but haven't disclosed to the public yet that would crush the capital ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 It won't be an overreaction if they make bac wait several months or even until next March. Anything is possible with the new Fed. They are changing the rules all the time. It looks like they will resubmit within 30 days according to cnbc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 IMO since the bank discovered the problem and reported itself to the Fed, the Fed is not going to be a hard-ass. I guess we will see. I think today might prove a nice buying opportunity. [edit] If this is basically a matter of them decreasing their request by the small amount they over-reported capital, BAC will recover today's loss in the next few months. If there's something bigger, or punitive on behalf of the Fed, then you are right this might be justified. But so far, I mostly see this as being a voluntary action on BAC's part, not a punitive one on the Fed's part. The Fed made the same mistake when they did their own calculations (otherwise, had the Fed caught it, the approved capital plan would already have included this change). It won't be an overreaction if they make bac wait several months or even until next March. Anything is possible with the new Fed. They are changing the rules all the time. It looks like they will resubmit within 30 days according to cnbc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. On $1,282.5 bln of risk-weighted assets, aren't we talking about a 20bp mistake of $2.6bln? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Regardless of the magnitude of the mistake, it shows us how unstable the system is right now. Moving targets, and a huge settlement, apparently not well accounted for. People are jumpy all right, and with very good reason. Its time for the CEO to step up and clear the air around further lawsuits, and government actions. It worked for JPM last fall. I cant help but wonder if this mistake is an excuse to raise money to pay the big settlement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 It's in the 8-K http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000007085814000047/bac0428148k.htm Depends on which metric you care to look at, but the capital numbers are down between $700MM and $4Bn. Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. On $1,282.5 bln of risk-weighted assets, aren't we talking about a 20bp mistake of $2.6bln? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 It's in the 8-K http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000007085814000047/bac0428148k.htm Depends on which metric you care to look at, but the capital numbers are down between $700MM and $4Bn. Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. On $1,282.5 bln of risk-weighted assets, aren't we talking about a 20bp mistake of $2.6bln? Assuming this is a one off event, then even at $4bln we are talking about a one-time per share adjustment $0.36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 JAN16 $20 calls...$1.00 I just bought some for $0.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I guess it depends on whether you are valuing BAC based on its current balance sheet, in which case you'd deduct .36/share, or if you are valuing it based on future earnings/buybacks, in which case you wouldn't care too much... unless you think this is not really a "one timer." There's a case for that too. For me valuation is mostly based on $2/share in earnings and maybe $1.50/share+ in buybacks a few years from now ... though frankly I'm getting a little sick of this so I don't know. If you say this is going up 50% in 3 years, but you'll have to take a lot of headaches with it - is it really worth it? It's in the 8-K http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000007085814000047/bac0428148k.htm Depends on which metric you care to look at, but the capital numbers are down between $700MM and $4Bn. Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. On $1,282.5 bln of risk-weighted assets, aren't we talking about a 20bp mistake of $2.6bln? Assuming this is a one off event, then even at $4bln we are talking about a one-time per share adjustment $0.36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 As a shareholder, I think this is hilarious. Talk about amateur hour. That said, it doesn't change my thesis much, so I don't really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tng Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Assuming this is a one off event, then even at $4bln we are talking about a one-time per share adjustment $0.36. We have to also keep in mind that this is not a "loss", it is merely short term accounting. When the notes run off in a few years, the end financial result would be exactly the same. The accounting does matter because the capital ratios determine dividends/buybacks, but I think the market has overreacted because at a 5% cheaper price, you can live with the capital return being pushed back an entire year ($4 billion is not that much anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 As a shareholder, I think this is hilarious. Talk about amateur hour. That said, it doesn't change my thesis much, so I don't really care. Does seem pretty unprofessional. A banks job is to manage money and do accounting. TBTF has long since become Too Big To Manage. Not to suggest that anyone else has any better handle on their short term accounting, cause they dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I sold all my 20 expiries, evidently to Rkbabang, and half my 17s, and bought a roughly equivalent amount of 15's. Tax managment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 This looks like a classic " a bad news never come alone". They are passing all the bads stuffs while reporting this 1st quarter loss. Bought some 15$ january 2015 calls this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Market seems to be vastly overreacting to the report. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-announces-adjustment-estimated-123300009.html They are revising down their estimated capital ratios by around 20bps. They're going to resubmit "expeditiously" and maybe instead of a $4Bn stock repurchase we get a $3.8Bn stock repurchase. Doesn't seem in-line with the 3-4% drop in the stock right now. This isn't an analog to the Citigroup issue, this is a self-caught ~20bps mistake that is causing a 300bps drop in the stock price. On $1,282.5 bln of risk-weighted assets, aren't we talking about a 20bp mistake of $2.6bln? Here I think is the problem... A bank is SUPPOSED to know what they are doing, they are SUPPOSED to keep accurate books. It is not quite so much the magnitude of the mistake, but simply the fact that it was made. I think investors have a "cock roach" theory going here. If you see ONE, how many are there hiding, that you can't see? I've heard stories and rumors for years that BAC was riddled with incompetence, toxic assets, bad processes, etc. etc. The question is does more bad news come out, or is this the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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