moore_capital54 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Interesting twist vs. AIG: http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Legal/News/ViewNews.aspx?id=58600&terms=@ReutersTopicCodes+CONTAINS+%27ANV%27 Essentially, BAC says when AIG sold all their countrywide securities to the Fed, they lost their right to sue over those securities. Makes sense to me ... Arden: http://crapstocks.com/files/BAC/2011-Q3-presentation.pdf page 32 shows you the break down of original face value & remaining for various classes of the RMBS litigation, the MBI is a part of the monoline bucket, as you can see it's the smallest of 7 buckets - a fraction of the total. In aggregate, $2.1 trillion of original face value, $800Bn unpaid remaining, $29 Bn in either paid or reserves. Of this MBIA appears to be about 1% of original face, less than 1% unpaid remaining, with unknown reserves (though they say they allocated reserves similar to their existing settlements). I personally spend little effort on MBI, because it's a very small piece of the overall litigation puzzle. Out of $800Bn of unpaid balances xazp- I'm looking at the annual report and can't find a summary of the legal proceedings - Are you saying the sum of the face values of all lawsuits against BAC is 800 Bn against reserves of 16 Bn? Where can you see this? Xazp, I (and I am sure the rest of the board) would be very interested in hearing a summary from you on where you stand on the BAC legal woes. This on the heels of the Wells Fargo Case announced today. My biased opinion is that the WFC case may highlight the flawed logic on the part of the investment community that JPM and WFC are higher quality names than BAC. As WFC gets its turn to be pounded by the government/regulators/media the valuatioon premium should erode between Wells and BAC... But again what I would be most interested in is some type of a summary of where you see things. Where you have been objectively surprised and satisfied and where you have been disappointed and how you see things progressing. Your analysis has been the best I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arden Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Great reply, Thx xazp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Well thank you, that's kind of you to say. With respect to the specific Wells Fargo case, BAC already settled on that issue in February for a billion. I think the Fannie put-back requests are worse than I had expected, and I'm not sure how that all settles out. Fannie historically only asked for put-backs on mortgages that had (I think) 24 or fewer payments. The Freddie settlement of all mortgages was based on that old rule. So it was a bit surprising when Fannie starts asking for put-backs on mortgages with > 24 payments. So that's an area I may have underestimated the losses, and there is low visibility into those losses. I whiffed on this one. I was unaware of LIBOR litigation. I think BAC for once is not the most exposed on this issue. The reason is that BAC was the rate-setter, but Merrill is the bigger derivatives player - but these two were not even one entity until 2008. I was caught by surprise on this issue as well. I put Europe as a $3.5Bn downside loss, but I don't think that is going to happen right now. So that was probably too severe. A good overview is I suggested TBV would drop to $12 in my downside case and would remain at $13+ in the base case. I think BAC will remain closer to the base case than the downside case. So it all kind of nets out - Europe better than expected, Fannie, LIBOR worse than expected. I'll be very interested in the CCAR outcome and whether BAC can return substantial capital next year or not. Xazp, I (and I am sure the rest of the board) would be very interested in hearing a summary from you on where you stand on the BAC legal woes. This on the heels of the Wells Fargo Case announced today. My biased opinion is that the WFC case may highlight the flawed logic on the part of the investment community that JPM and WFC are higher quality names than BAC. As WFC gets its turn to be pounded by the government/regulators/media the valuatioon premium should erode between Wells and BAC... But again what I would be most interested in is some type of a summary of where you see things. Where you have been objectively surprised and satisfied and where you have been disappointed and how you see things progressing. Your analysis has been the best I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 With respect to the specific Wells Fargo case, BAC already settled on that issue in February for a billion. xazp, the FHA fraud was included in the settlement but not the RMBS fraud that targeted JP Morgan. The complaint contends that Bear Stearns and its lending unit, EMC Mortgage, defrauded investors who purchased mortgage securities packaged by the companies from 2005 through 2007. Also, MBIA already conservatively booked $3.2 billion in gross claims and Countrywide must be a huge chunk of that. But it's still not an important amount and there are undisclosed reserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Interesting twist vs. AIG: http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Legal/News/ViewNews.aspx?id=58600&terms=@ReutersTopicCodes+CONTAINS+%27ANV%27 Essentially, BAC says when AIG sold all their countrywide securities to the Fed, they lost their right to sue over those securities. Makes sense to me ... Arden: http://crapstocks.com/files/BAC/2011-Q3-presentation.pdf page 32 shows you the break down of original face value & remaining for various classes of the RMBS litigation, the MBI is a part of the monoline bucket, as you can see it's the smallest of 7 buckets - a fraction of the total. In aggregate, $2.1 trillion of original face value, $800Bn unpaid remaining, $29 Bn in either paid or reserves. Of this MBIA appears to be about 1% of original face, less than 1% unpaid remaining, with unknown reserves (though they say they allocated reserves similar to their existing settlements). Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Bank Of America Might Have A Big Earnings Surprise Oct. 14, 2012 - SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/article/922711-bank-of-america-might-have-a-big-earnings-surprise?source=yahoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Banks Sued by U.S. Homeowners Over Rigging of Libor Benchmark Oct. 15, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-15/banks-sued-by-u-s-homeowners-over-rigging-of-libor-benchmark.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 2015 leaps are out for BAC, JPM, AIG etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 2015 leaps are out for BAC, JPM, AIG etc. Is there any good book/model on evaluation of these leaps that you can recommend? thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 uccmal, would love to hear what your plans are for the 2015 leaps, i thinking of selling some very low strike price puts, but rather do it when the stock is down :) hy 2015 leaps are out for BAC, JPM, AIG etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 2015 leaps are out for BAC, JPM, AIG etc. Is there any good book/model on evaluation of these leaps that you can recommend? thx. Benchmark,... I think our friendly board member Ericopoly already gave the best answer some month ago. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/2012-ytd-rate-of-return/msg85401/#msg85401 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Yes, look at Eric's comments. Isuspect we have both learned by doing. I never met a book on options that was comprehensible. Hyten, I dont have any comment on puts. I always lose when I sell puts. Its much easier to buy a stock that has a 6% dividend. My plan is to buy slightly out of the money BAC leaps, and AIG leaps. I dont see as much upside with JPM or WFC. Picked up 20 BAC $10 2015s at 1.86 today. To me the likelihood of BAC being below 11.86 sometime in the next 2.3 years is very low. Picked up 10 * 40 AIG leaps today @ 5.30. Same comment with AIG. I still hold a huge number of warrants and 2014s of each so I am going to do this opportunistically, and wait for pullbacks. If they dont come, I dont really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MYDemaray Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Anyone know if BAC stopped paying premiums to MBI post accusation of R&W violations? I'm guessing no, since their position is that the insurance still stands... http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/assured-creditsuisse-idUSL1E8LG0N020121016?feedType=RSS&feedName=bondsNews&rpc=43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 2015 leaps are out for BAC, JPM, AIG etc. Is there any good book/model on evaluation of these leaps that you can recommend? thx. Benchmark,... I think our friendly board member Ericopoly already gave the best answer some month ago. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/2012-ytd-rate-of-return/msg85401/#msg85401 That was a good thread. However, Eric strategy seems to be protecting downside while using leverage to potentially get some upside (unless i read that completely wrong). He also said that he doesn't like to buy calls. My experience with option so far has been buying and selling calls -- what's a good way to look at the risk/reward with calls? or is that just too limited (i.e., you need to use put for option to make sense?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benchmark Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Yes, look at Eric's comments. Isuspect we have both learned by doing. I never met a book on options that was comprehensible. Hyten, I dont have any comment on puts. I always lose when I sell puts. Its much easier to buy a stock that has a 6% dividend. My plan is to buy slightly out of the money BAC leaps, and AIG leaps. I dont see as much upside with JPM or WFC. Picked up 20 BAC $10 2015s at 1.86 today. To me the likelihood of BAC being below 11.86 sometime in the next 2.3 years is very low. Picked up 10 * 40 AIG leaps today @ 5.30. Same comment with AIG. I still hold a huge number of warrants and 2014s of each so I am going to do this opportunistically, and wait for pullbacks. If they dont come, I dont really care. The problem I have with call is deciding when to sell. For example, I had some 2012 BAC 10 calls that was doubling at one point (back in March/April when BAC went over 10), but I didn't sell, and am sitting on a loss today :(. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Yes, look at Eric's comments. Isuspect we have both learned by doing. I never met a book on options that was comprehensible. Hyten, I dont have any comment on puts. I always lose when I sell puts. Its much easier to buy a stock that has a 6% dividend. My plan is to buy slightly out of the money BAC leaps, and AIG leaps. I dont see as much upside with JPM or WFC. Picked up 20 BAC $10 2015s at 1.86 today. To me the likelihood of BAC being below 11.86 sometime in the next 2.3 years is very low. Picked up 10 * 40 AIG leaps today @ 5.30. Same comment with AIG. I still hold a huge number of warrants and 2014s of each so I am going to do this opportunistically, and wait for pullbacks. If they dont come, I dont really care. The problem I have with call is deciding when to sell. For example, I had some 2012 BAC 10 calls that was doubling at one point (back in March/April when BAC went over 10), but I didn't sell, and am sitting on a loss today :(. Agreed, that is a problem. I get around that by rolling over to the longest date. Right now, I have a distribution of 2014 BAC Leaps. 7$; 10$, 12$, 15$. Of these the 7s are up by 50%, 10s about BE, 12s, are lower by 40%, 15s off by 70%. I have been selling down the largest positions ( the 10s, and a minor amount of 7s, and 12s). The gains on the 7s, outweigh the losses on the 10s and 12s. With the proceeds I mostly switched to warrants. Now I will opportunistically ramp up the 2015s. Its a strategy that works for me. Take a loss now, for a magnified gain in the future. Had BAc gone up to 13 my decisions would have been even tougher. I would have beenforced to sell positions with big gains, which is hard. The warrants are handy in this case and I now have way more cash in warrants than in Leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshiremystery Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 BofA's Brian Moynihan on housing: 'The worst is over' Oct. 16, 2012 http://www.bizjournals.com/albany/morning_call/2012/10/bofas-brian-moynihan-on-housing-the.html?ana=yfcpc http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/morning_call/2012/10/bofas-moynihan-worst-is-over-in.html?ana=yfcpc In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said the U.S. housing market is on the mend. "The worst is over," he said in an interview with Bloomberg, noting past-due mortgages and the backlog of problem mortgages are beginning to subside. "You're starting to see the home market heal around the country." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olmsted Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Article taking advantage of the Pandit situation to pile on BM. Unsupported and unnecessary: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11738890/1/bank-of-americas-ceo-should-follow-pandit-street-whispers.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arden Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Earnings are out. EPS is 0.0$ with disappoiting revenue (just like Wells Fargo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardincap Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 8.97 B3 T1 cap.. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 As previously reported, the third quarter of 2012 was negatively impacted by $1.9 billion of debit valuation adjustments (DVA) and fair value option (FVO) adjustments related to the improvement in the company's credit spreads, $1.6 billion for total litigation expense, including a charge for the previously announced settlement of the Merrill Lynch class action litigation, and a charge of $0.8 billion related to the repricing of certain deferred tax assets due to a reduction in the U.K. corporate tax rate. Together, these three items totaled a negative $0.28 per share. The year-ago quarter included $6.2 billion in positive DVA and FVO adjustments, $0.6 billion in total litigation expense and $0.8 billion related to the repricing of certain deferred tax assets due to a reduction in the U.K. corporate tax rate. Together, these three items totaled a positive $0.27 per share in the third quarter of 2011 The DVA stuff is really a strange accounting quirk. Interesting article about it for those interested: link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onyx1 Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 There is alot of things to like about these results, but in particular I see this statement as very significant as it is the first time we have seen an RPL put on the GSE R&W liabilities: "The company currently estimates that the RPL for both GSE and non-GSE representations and warranties exposures could be up to $6B over accruals at September 30, 2012 compared to $5B over accruals at June 30, 2012 for only non-GSE representations and warranties exposures." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 I was not able to listen to the call. Can someone post the transcript when they see it. tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wescobrk Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Stock should cross 10 by end of week. 8.97 Basel 3 and Citi is at 8.48 and Citi is trading 8% higher after the board disaster with Pandit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Apparently, BofA is "literally disintegrating"--Thanks Chris Walen! http://www.bloomberg.com/video/whalen-bank-of-america-is-literally-disintegrating-mDmMxuk9TGG9xMUIhvAV9w.html?cmpid=msnmoney&industry=IND_BANKING&isub= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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