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BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants


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for what it is worth- CNBC just had a feature on the wealth of congress.

 

I did not realize that there are several congressmen that are worth several hundred million dollars.

 

They said that they don t make a big salary being a rep but a lot of them make money trading stock

 

There 3rd favorite stock is BAC..good news for you guys holding BAC considering that these guys often trade on insider information which is legal for them but not for us. i.e they must know something (56 congressmen own BAC)

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for what it is worth- CNBC just had a feature on the wealth of congress.

 

I did not realize that there are several congressmen that are worth several hundred million dollars.

 

They said that they don t make a big salary being a rep but a lot of them make money trading stock

 

There 3rd favorite stock is BAC..good news for you guys holding BAC considering that these guys often trade on insider information which is legal for them but not for us. i.e they must know something (56 congressmen own BAC)

 

It seems to me it goes well beyond the congressmen.

 

"these guys" use brokers for purchasing and selling their holdings, correct? Even if these brokers are not advised of the reasoning for purchasing or selling, they are at least aware that it is happening. If a certain broker has as a client more than one of "these guys", he would have a very good indication that something might be going on and act accordingly on behalf of himself or his other clients. Would that be legal?

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for what it is worth- CNBC just had a feature on the wealth of congress.

 

I did not realize that there are several congressmen that are worth several hundred million dollars.

 

They said that they don t make a big salary being a rep but a lot of them make money trading stock

 

There 3rd favorite stock is BAC..good news for you guys holding BAC considering that these guys often trade on insider information which is legal for them but not for us. i.e they must know something (56 congressmen own BAC)

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7388205n

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John Paulson increased too.

 

Here is the slide deck for today's presentation:

 

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDQ3ODAyfENoaWxkSUQ9NDcxNjkzfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

 

One thing that needs to be watched regarding Basel 3 is if companies rush to meet 2019 targets in the next couple of years. If one or two SIFI's do this, others would be forced to follow and in that case there could be dilution risk at BAC.

 

Vinod

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John Paulson increased too.

 

Here is the slide deck for today's presentation:

 

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDQ3ODAyfENoaWxkSUQ9NDcxNjkzfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

 

One thing that needs to be watched regarding Basel 3 is if companies rush to meet 2019 targets in the next couple of years. If one or two SIFI's do this, others would be forced to follow and in that case there could be dilution risk at BAC.

 

Vinod

 

This is exactly what Ericopoly has suggested, I believe in another thread.

 

Specifically, he noted that BAC has indicated in its latest 10-Q that it might issue common in order to redeem TRUPS.  Why would they do this?  Maybe because they want to boost their capital levels for the Basel 3 transition such that they are allowed to resume their dividend at the same time as WFC, JPM, C, and other SIFIs.

 

Given that I've paid such a low price for all my BAC exposure, I don't mind a little dilution if we are able to resume our dividend at the same time as the other US SIFIs.  Because I'm thinking that will boost the share price.

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for what it is worth- CNBC just had a feature on the wealth of congress.

 

I did not realize that there are several congressmen that are worth several hundred million dollars.

 

They said that they don t make a big salary being a rep but a lot of them make money trading stock

 

There 3rd favorite stock is BAC..good news for you guys holding BAC considering that these guys often trade on insider information which is legal for them but not for us. i.e they must know something (56 congressmen own BAC)

 

I see the 60 minutes video but not the cnbc special. If anyone has a link to the cnbc special it would be much appreciated.

 

The 60 minute special made me sick. Looking forward to researching the Stanford professor/researcher tonight. I wonder where they get their information.

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for what it is worth- CNBC just had a feature on the wealth of congress.

 

I did not realize that there are several congressmen that are worth several hundred million dollars.

 

They said that they don t make a big salary being a rep but a lot of them make money trading stock

 

There 3rd favorite stock is BAC..good news for you guys holding BAC considering that these guys often trade on insider information which is legal for them but not for us. i.e they must know something (56 congressmen own BAC)

 

 

I see the 60 minutes video but not the cnbc special. If anyone has a link to the cnbc special it would be much appreciated.

 

 

 

The 60 minute special made me sick. Looking forward to researching the Stanford professor/researcher tonight. I wonder where they get their information.

 

 

I think this is it  http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000057523

 

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John Paulson increased too.

 

Here is the slide deck for today's presentation:

 

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDQ3ODAyfENoaWxkSUQ9NDcxNjkzfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

 

One thing that needs to be watched regarding Basel 3 is if companies rush to meet 2019 targets in the next couple of years. If one or two SIFI's do this, others would be forced to follow and in that case there could be dilution risk at BAC.

 

Vinod

 

This is exactly what Ericopoly has suggested, I believe in another thread.

 

Specifically, he noted that BAC has indicated in its latest 10-Q that it might issue common in order to redeem TRUPS.  Why would they do this?  Maybe because they want to boost their capital levels for the Basel 3 transition such that they are allowed to resume their dividend at the same time as WFC, JPM, C, and other SIFIs.

 

Given that I've paid such a low price for all my BAC exposure, I don't mind a little dilution if we are able to resume our dividend at the same time as the other US SIFIs.  Because I'm thinking that will boost the share price.

 

I hope that isn't the reason for the dilution, if only for the implication that Moynihan is letting short term pressures divert his recovery efforts. Another culprit might be discussions with the ratings agencies who possess strong leverage against BAC at this point. Ex-government backing, Moody's rates BAC's senior unsecured debt as junk. From the 3Q supplements, Moynihan will be applying nearly every dollar of earnings and sales proceeds towards debt reduction. Someone is applying the pressure, whether it be regulators, ratings agencies, or disgruntled employees. Not so long ago, Moynihan committed to maintaining a position in CCB. Now he sells most of the remainder and issues 186 million shares for a fairly slim improvement in the Tier 1 Common ratio.

 

A dividend target seems like a relatively static issue compared to the shifting announcements of management.

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That's a bit of a generous look at BAC. Whether you are for or against the investment, it isn't a good idea to rely upon one quarter of GAAP earnings to make your case.

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I hope that isn't the reason for the dilution, if only for the implication that Moynihan is letting short term pressures divert his recovery efforts.

 

We all know that BAC already committed a false start in trying to get the dividend boosted earlier this year. 

 

A)  Does this imply that they are conservative and will only resume the dividend only when dark clouds are lifted? 

    --->  My answer is "No".

 

This is why I think they are trying to just buy the great rack from a plastic surgeon instead of hitting the gym.

 

Part of this is probably to maintain appearances -- because they do matter, to customers.  If you can get the regulators and the Fed to let you raise your dividend, it's a vote of confidence.  But if you look like the Fed and regulators think you are shaky, then it's not looking good to customers.

 

I'm trying to be generous here -- if it's not about maintaining show for customers, then they are just plain stupid to want to pay out their capital early in 2011 only to be trying to raise even more later in the same year.  What's going on?

 

 

 

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"Banks have to get there sooner," added a financial institutions group banker about reaching Basel III guidelines by 2019. "That's because of the equity pressure on banks to say to the market that they have the adequate capital. As we all know there is a race among the banks to not be the one singled out as having an issue with this."

Normally a bank would be better off phasing the new capital ratios in over time. "But in this environment it is all optics," said the FIG banker. "You have to say you can get to levels ahead of time because the view is it will make big clients think of you as the strongest and best bank to give their business to."

 

 

https://news.fidelity.com/news/news.jhtml?articleid=201107011428RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_TRE7604Q3_1&IMG=N&cat=Top.Investing.RT&ccsource=rss-Top.Investing.RT

 

 

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Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck, argues that BofA can get to a 10% Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio in 2013 sometime.

"Over the next three years, we expect 300bp to come from earnings, 110bp from RWA shrinkage, 110bp from reduced capital deductions, 40bp from a gain on CCB's (China Construction Bank) sale" and another 40bp from other methods, said Graseck in a recent report.

 

 

https://news.fidelity.com/news/news.jhtml?articleid=201107011428RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_TRE7604Q3_1&IMG=N&cat=Top.Investing.RT&ccsource=rss-Top.Investing.RT

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Also interesting re: BAC's future compliance...

 

http://dailycapitalist.com/2011/11/15/heloc-hell-jeopardizes-banks-tier-i-capital/

 

B of A estimates that only about $5 billion, or 4 percent, of its home equity portfolio is current but subordinate to a delinquent first mortgage. Similarly, JPMorgan Chase estimates that about $4 billion, or 5 percent, is current but subordinate to a late or modified first mortgage, excluding the impaired loans it acquired when it bought Washington Mutual.

 

http://dailycapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Parsing-the-home-equity-loan-bubble.png

 

At Bank of America, underwater home equity loans were equal to 45 percent of Tier 1 common, including a $12.3 billion portfolio picked up in the company’s purchase of Countrywide Financial. (Net of loss allowances, B of A carries those loans at about half of their unpaid principal balance.)
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internally bac looked at things and said "things look good". however, they did not anticipate that externally, people were being hyper critical. all the stuff they are doing is for them. if you are in a beauty pageant, you don't wear what you like you wear what the judges will like.

 

Or what you think the judges will like.  The truth is that investors as a group are not dumb.  ( although they do exhibit herding behavior) Investors will usually give much weight to what they perceive is the future and ignore window dressing.

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