PlanMaestro Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Eric, let's not get into an ego fight; it's not helpful and it's not like we are that far apart in the big picture. The only difference is that I'm just more skeptic on the limits of what can be done with the deposits. And the fact that they are planning to retire only 60B when they have 300B in excess FDIC insured deposits and I think hints on this idea. Besides, 1. There's still some borrowing in the FDIC insured subs. I don't have time to check the call report in detail but this may give you an idea. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8483/8244170499_87572c1b1f.jpg 2. I estimate higher than 60B of cash flow over the next two years. More like 90B. 3. There are many combinations that could be done at Merrill in terms of liquidity, risk, assets, and debt. And some may not increase Basel III capital ratios while reducing debt. 4. When they say all excess capital will be distributed, I dont think I understood the same that you understood. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Eric, let's not get into an ego fight; it's not helpful and it's not like we are that far apart in the big picture. The only difference is that I'm just more skeptic on the limits of what can be done with the deposits. And the fact that they are planning to retire only 60B when they have 300B in excess FDIC insured deposits and I think hints on this idea. Besides, 1. There's still some borrowing in the FDIC insured subs. I don't have time to check the call report in detail but this may give you an idea. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8483/8244170499_87572c1b1f.jpg 2. I estimate higher than 60B of cash flow over the next two years. More like 90B. 3. There are many combinations that could be done at Merrill in terms of liquidity, risk, assets, and debt. And some may not increase Basel III capital ratios while reducing debt. 4. When they say all excess capital will be distributed, I dont think I understood the same that you understood. Have fun. It's not about ego with me. It's about trying to learn. I previously estimated that they could cut $100b in LT debt and you waived me off. You specifically stated that you thought not much more could be done on the LT debt reduction. Now that Moynihan says it's $60b you have "cash flows" right off the cuff. So given that my own level of understanding can't explain it, and you had the quick solution, I wanted you to explain it to me. I figure you are working in the teaching profession because you are the Maestro (Spanish for "teacher"), and I figure that's your intended meaning given that you are domiciled in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sure Eric is not about ego, and irony does not translate well in the internets. Bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 EVERYONE CALM DOWN IMMEDIATELY. :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Folks, I just put a friggin' post up yesterday about sticking to the debate...stick to the debate! >:( Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Everyone, Look, I'm still not mad at him in any way because well, I'm not in a shoving match with him. I never even put my fists up. I've just laid down and let him beat the shit out of me. My ego: 1) I told him I know very little and that's why I come across as someone asking basic questions (no false modesty) 2) I told everyone time and again that I just tailcoat great investors as a way of limiting my misses 3) I told him repeatedly that I just want to learn from him -- I merely asked him questions to get an idea of where he came to the conclusion that they can't do more on the debt side despite BofA insinuating otherwise 4) When he asked if I knew the difference between a call report and a 10-Q, I said "No". Is that macho to some people? I thought I was submitting myself to a strip search on that one. Lastly, can anyone find a single ad hominem attack I've made on him? He's now I think taken jabs at me on ego and irony, but really, can anyone find a place where I just made this a personal attack forum against him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alekbaylee Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Funny (or not) how these "verbal hassles" seem to pop up from time to time. I think it's solely due to the boredom of watching a screen all day long. Everyone should take a walk now and then. Actually, that's what I'm gonna do right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Ericopoly...reveal yourself! I know you're actually Brian Moynihan trying to prop up the stock! :o. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Ericopoly...reveal yourself! I know you're actually Brian Moynihan trying to prop up the stock! :o. Cheers! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 This is good, the tension is passed and we are having a laugh again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It occurred to me that perhaps he thinks I'm fucking with him when I say I know very little. The movie Forest Gump is a good place to start. He made a fortune in Apple stock even though he thought he was invested in a fruit company. Literally, I have a low enough self confidence that I have the better wisdom to just copy off the better students in the class. And I'm honest enough to admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cayale Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If he is Moynihan, and does not know what a call report is, I'm going to have to call my investment into question. So seriously, are you Brian Moynihan [finger on the sell button]? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Ericopoly...reveal yourself! I know you're actually Brian Moynihan trying to prop up the stock! :o. Cheers! To get to the root of this. Ericopoly, by Jan 1st 2010, when you became the BAC CEO, Country Wide was no longer engaged in any revenue producing activities correct? If he answers "I wouldn't be the best person to ask about that, because I don't know", I think we can assert he is Moynihan :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If he is Moynihan, and does not know what a call report is, I'm going to have to call my investment into question. So seriously, are you Brian Moynihan [finger on the sell button]? Perhaps I'm actually a short seller and my plan all along is to get you to make that connection so that I'll be able to cover. Often times when "the shorties" are supposedly driving a stock down on "manipulation", do we ask enough questions to find out whether they are actually just potentially long-only investors that merely want a great entry price? The motivation would be exactly the same, but yet we only ever suspect the shorties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECCO Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Is it just me... It has been almost 10 days that we are flirting with the 10$ mark. We just need a 2% pop to hit that mark, but it seems so hard to get that 2%. It seems that for some persons, BAC trading over 10$ will be a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xazp Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 What more do they need to say? >> They need to do what they say they will do. BAC, C and JPM have all promised substantial capital returns in the past. BAC and C have returned essentially none, and JPM had theirs cut short after a few months. The big three (ex-WFC) have been chronic over-promisers on capital returns. Now I happen to agree they will be able to return substantial capital next year - all three - but analysts have been burned, investors have been burned, and I don't think they're coming back until you actually see cash flowing back to investors. It doesn't matter what the CEO's say, because they have promised it all before. I think they will trade up assuming CCAR concludes the way I think it will. The analysts seem to be thinking a total of low single digit billion returns; I think C, BAC, JPM can each return $10Bn or more next year.... Why is the stock not taking off? What more do they need to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Is it just me... It has been almost 10 days that we are flirting with the 10$ mark. We just need a 2% pop to hit that mark, but it seems so hard to get that 2%. It seems that for some persons, BAC trading over 10$ will be a big event. Considering most of my calls are the 2014 and 2015 $10 strike, this flirting with 10 has spiked the conspiracy theorist in me :) Note that I don't give these numbers any weight in my investment decision, but I find them interesting none the less. According to the trade calculator I am playing with, the probability for the 2014 $10 call is: 68.01% below 11.02, 29.72% between 11.02 and 18.73, 2.25% above 18.73 Standard Deviations: -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 $3.30 $4.69 $6.63 $9.37 $13.24 $18.71 $26.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cayale Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If he is Moynihan, and does not know what a call report is, I'm going to have to call my investment into question. So seriously, are you Brian Moynihan [finger on the sell button]? Perhaps I'm actually a short seller and my plan all along is to get you to make that connection so that I'll be able to cover. Often times when "the shorties" are supposedly driving a stock down on "manipulation", do we ask enough questions to find out whether they are actually just potentially long-only investors that merely want a great entry price? The motivation would be exactly the same, but yet we only ever suspect the shorties. That is not actionable! How am I going to explain this wash sale to my accountant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This is good, the tension is passed and we are having a laugh again. I always have a laugh at everyone's expense. It's why I only have investment internet message board friends! ;D Usually I get into it with some of them too...as Eric knows! Now that is over...how about we go back to predicting BAC's stock price before Christmas...I'm still swinging for near tangible book, even though the window is closing fast. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This is good, the tension is passed and we are having a laugh again. I always have a laugh at everyone's expense. It's why I only have investment internet message board friends! ;D Usually I get into it with some of them too...as Eric knows! Now that is over...how about we go back to predicting BAC's stock price before Christmas...I'm still swinging for near tangible book, even though the window is closing fast. Cheers! Years ago I explained to this board why I chose ERICOPOLY as my handle. Well, it's because I've been known to debate a topic forever on logic and most people don't have the similar appetite. So I can sort of become the last one carrying on the debate. So it's kind of like a monopolist of discussion. A self-deprecating handle ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This is good, the tension is passed and we are having a laugh again. I always have a laugh at everyone's expense. It's why I only have investment internet message board friends! ;D Usually I get into it with some of them too...as Eric knows! Now that is over...how about we go back to predicting BAC's stock price before Christmas...I'm still swinging for near tangible book, even though the window is closing fast. Cheers! Years ago I explained to this board why I chose ERICOPOLY as my handle. Well, it's because I've been known to debate a topic forever on logic and most people don't have the similar appetite. So I can sort of become the last one carrying on the debate. So it's kind of like a monopolist of discussion. A self-deprecating handle ;) Is that why? I don't remember. I always thought you wanted to own the world...or viewed yourself as a monopoly...or something to that effect. Or you just loved playing monopoly as a kid...I used to play for hours and hours. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This is good, the tension is passed and we are having a laugh again. I always have a laugh at everyone's expense. It's why I only have investment internet message board friends! ;D Usually I get into it with some of them too...as Eric knows! Now that is over...how about we go back to predicting BAC's stock price before Christmas...I'm still swinging for near tangible book, even though the window is closing fast. Cheers! Years ago I explained to this board why I chose ERICOPOLY as my handle. Well, it's because I've been known to debate a topic forever on logic and most people don't have the similar appetite. So I can sort of become the last one carrying on the debate. So it's kind of like a monopolist of discussion. A self-deprecating handle ;) It's always good to have a laugh, inject some humor, a bit of levity. Things don't always have to be serious in order to be taken seriously. Especially when it's with internet message board friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 A self-deprecating handle ;) Mine too. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This is good, the tension is passed and we are having a laugh again. I always have a laugh at everyone's expense. It's why I only have investment internet message board friends! ;D Usually I get into it with some of them too...as Eric knows! Now that is over...how about we go back to predicting BAC's stock price before Christmas...I'm still swinging for near tangible book, even though the window is closing fast. Cheers! Years ago I explained to this board why I chose ERICOPOLY as my handle. Well, it's because I've been known to debate a topic forever on logic and most people don't have the similar appetite. So I can sort of become the last one carrying on the debate. So it's kind of like a monopolist of discussion. A self-deprecating handle ;) Is that why? I don't remember. I always thought you wanted to own the world...or viewed yourself as a monopoly...or something to that effect. Or you just loved playing monopoly as a kid...I used to play for hours and hours. Cheers! It was my favorite game. That and collecting baseball cards. I figure the baseball cards one is not that much different from having a mind for stocks. I had a dart board in my garage and I found it pretty hard. I always find it funny when people compare stock picking to throwing darts because there are international dart champions -- some people are consistently the very best at throwing darts with amazing accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Banks' Profits Up 6.6% Banks' overall revenue rose 3% in the third quarter from a year earlier, to $169.6 billion, the largest gain in nearly three years, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. This revenue growth helped propel the industry to the fattest quarterly profit in six years. Total profit of $37.6 billion, was up 6.6%, or $2.3 billion, from the same quarter a year earlier. http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324355904578159042588669694.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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