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BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants


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Bloomberg article on the capital and dividend question.  As plain as you can make it...again, not sure what the world needs to hear, but we are all listening!  Cheers!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-04/bofa-s-moynihan-says-lender-will-pass-next-stress-test.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

My "crack brain" was going crazy after reading that article.  After a few hours of calming down, what's not to love about a franchise deposit base at half BV with a near term catalyst?  Adding more tomorrow.

 

I kinda hope that they don't increase the dividend and just buy back 10-15b.

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my handle is a result of Parsad misspelling it when the board was migrate from old to the current system

 

i never bother to correct Parsad :)

 

LOL!  Why didn't you tell me...it's not like it would have killed me or something.  ;D  Cheers!

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Bloomberg article on the capital and dividend question.  As plain as you can make it...again, not sure what the world needs to hear, but we are all listening!  Cheers!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-04/bofa-s-moynihan-says-lender-will-pass-next-stress-test.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

My "crack brain" was going crazy after reading that article.  After a few hours of calming down, what's not to love about a franchise deposit base at half BV with a near term catalyst?  Adding more tomorrow.

 

I kinda hope that they don't increase the dividend and just buy back 10-15b.

 

I would rather they skip the buybacks and just pay a dividend with all of it.  It would get the stock price up much faster which is my main interest.  Plus it is more difficult to reduce or cancel a dividend than a stock buyback, as we have just seen with JPM.  Of course, our opinions matter for naught. 

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At under TBV, I hope 100% of the capital return goes towards share repurchases.  Once it is over TBV, they can split the capital returns between dividends / share repurchases for 2014.  I know they have already mentioned the split but I can always hope for a $15B excelerated share repurchase program!!!  :)

 

I have not been buying any additional warrants over $4/warrant but it is still rather cheap long term!!! I am debating if I should continue to sell additional positions to continue to add!  hmmm....

 

S

 

Bloomberg article on the capital and dividend question.  As plain as you can make it...again, not sure what the world needs to hear, but we are all listening!  Cheers!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-04/bofa-s-moynihan-says-lender-will-pass-next-stress-test.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

My "crack brain" was going crazy after reading that article.  After a few hours of calming down, what's not to love about a franchise deposit base at half BV with a near term catalyst?  Adding more tomorrow.

 

I kinda hope that they don't increase the dividend and just buy back 10-15b.

 

I would rather they skip the buybacks and just pay a dividend with all of it.  It would get the stock price up much faster which is my main interest.  Plus it is more difficult to reduce or cancel a dividend than a stock buyback, as we have just seen with JPM.  Of course, our opinions matter for naught.

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Is it just me... It has been almost 10 days that we are flirting with the 10$ mark. We just need a 2% pop to hit that mark, but it seems so hard to get that 2%.

 

It seems that for some persons, BAC trading over 10$ will be a big event.

 

Scoreboard!

 

(I just jinxed it I'm sure)

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Is it just me... It has been almost 10 days that we are flirting with the 10$ mark. We just need a 2% pop to hit that mark, but it seems so hard to get that 2%.

 

It seems that for some persons, BAC trading over 10$ will be a big event.

 

Scoreboard!

 

(I just jinxed it I'm sure)

 

Seems so hard to get that 10$, now it should goes up quite fast up to 12-13$ I think. Still possible for Parsad to see tbook by Xmas. The next 4-5 months will be exciting.

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I read that the Fed is limiting dividends to 30%.  This is to address the situation where if the economy goes south the Fed can ask the company to halt the buybacks while still keeping the dividend payments flowing uninterrupted.

 

Eric,

 

Do you recall whether it's just the divvies that will be limited to 30% or is it total distributions of capital (ie, divvies plus buybacks) that will be limited to 30%?  If it's the latter, then BAC's Basel III capital levels will become absolutely silly after another year or two...

 

 

SJ

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I read that the Fed is limiting dividends to 30%.  This is to address the situation where if the economy goes south the Fed can ask the company to halt the buybacks while still keeping the dividend payments flowing uninterrupted.

 

Eric,

 

Do you recall whether it's just the divvies that will be limited to 30% or is it total distributions of capital (ie, divvies plus buybacks) that will be limited to 30%?  If it's the latter, then BAC's Basel III capital levels will become absolutely silly after another year or two...

 

 

SJ

 

Just the divvies. 

 

And thus if you are at 9% B3 already, then if you can survive the "adverse scenario" stress test with your proposed dividend distribution, then there ought to be no limitation on your buyback approval (as long as divvies+buybacks is within what you can generate)

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Citi just decided to start their cost cutting efforts. BAC looks like the smart ones now, because they saw that they needed to do this much earlier than the rest of the group. May be worth keeping an eye on C as well because they may follow BAC's strategy of simplifying the business.

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A while back I wrote a post on how the A warrants adjust for dividends. For some reason I used 13.60 rather than 13.30 as the exercise price. Dumb mistake. No one seemed to notice or care, but I can't figure out how to delete it so I'll try and correct it.

 

They adjust by formula, not penny for penny.  So as an example - BAC trading at 10 pays a .06 cent quarterly dividend, .05 greater than the .01 threshold. The new exercise should be 13.2335. The adjustment is slightly greater than the dividend.

 

9.95 ( price of 10 - (div  - threshold)) / Price of 10 = .995

.995 times the current ex price of 13.30 = 13.2335 the new strike

 

If price and div are unchanged the next quarter, then .995 times 13.2335 gives new strike of 13.1674. Next quarter - 13.1016.

 

With the stock below strike, the strike adjusts slightly more than the dividend. If the stock is at 25 the new strike would be 13.27.

Hartford warrants have adjusted by this formula.

 

The amount of shares purchasable per warrant increases also but I think it's negligible.

 

I hope I've gotten this right this time. Full disclosure, I have been wrong before.

 

 

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A while back I wrote a post on how the A warrants adjust for dividends. For some reason I used 13.60 rather than 13.30 as the exercise price. Dumb mistake. No one seemed to notice or care, but I can't figure out how to delete it so I'll try and correct it.

 

They adjust by formula, not penny for penny.  So as an example - BAC trading at 10 pays a .06 cent quarterly dividend, .05 greater than the .01 threshold. The new exercise should be 13.2335. The adjustment is slightly greater than the dividend.

 

9.95 ( price of 10 - (div  - threshold)) / Price of 10 = .995

.995 times the current ex price of 13.30 = 13.2335 the new strike

 

If price and div are unchanged the next quarter, then .995 times 13.2335 gives new strike of 13.1674. Next quarter - 13.1016.

 

With the stock below strike, the strike adjusts slightly more than the dividend. If the stock is at 25 the new strike would be 13.27.

Hartford warrants have adjusted by this formula.

 

The amount of shares purchasable per warrant increases also but I think it's negligible.

 

I hope I've gotten this right this time. Full disclosure, I have been wrong before.

 

 

First off, I appreciated that post as it helped me better understand the mechanics of the warrants.  I noticed the error, but I just figured your finger missed the "3" on your number pad and hit the "6" instead.  Personally, I didn't much care about a 30 cent error on the strike, as the decision on the warrants is a big picture decision and 30 cents shouldn't really change it. 

 

SJ

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The number of shares per warrant may be an insignificant adjustment at the beginning or even per instance, but:

 

1) There's going to be a lot of them, so they may add up to a fair amount; and

2) as the dividend increases over time, the adjustment should get bigger.

 

 

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Congrats Friends! BAC new 52 week high. We may just hit Parsad's $12 Tangible book target by christmas!

 

Who is this "Moorecapital"?  I don't remember him!  ;D 

 

If you haven't noticed while you've been lurking, everyone was wondering what the heck happened to you and I've had to explain that you just haven't been posting.  Ericopoly has been monopolizing the whole BAC thread in your absence.  Cheers!

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