Uccmal Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Mistake to sell out. We had a huge position in warrants, so we sold a very tiny amount as we average out a bit. But we are keeping all of the BAC equity and 75% of the warrants for the long-term. This will hit $13-15 in the next year...and I suspect the exercise price will start to fall quickly as BAC starts to pay out cash...and they will pay out a ton over the next few years. You cannot touch their deposit base, so as long as they continue to operate conservatively, I cannot see why they will not do nearly as well as WFC long-term. Cheers! Agreed. I have about a 5 to 10% position and I am only thinking about increasing it. This is a franchise, competitively advantaged company being priced as if it will not earn its cost of capital. I don't understand someone that would sell out completely. What was the thesis there? They should be priced at .5 BV, not .3 BV? Its funny you mention the word franchise with BAC. During the dark days two years ago, and even last year, there were arguments that BAC was going to lose their deposit bases. A couple of us argued that bank assets are stickier than people believe. This has turned out to be very true! Banking, it turns out has something of a moat, that is not easily broken. I get nervous when stocks rise quickly. I try to handle this by trimming the position, or in this case buying some cheap insurance for the amount I would like to sell. Dropping stocks are easier to handle for some reason. When they go down, I revisit my thesis, and add, stand pat, or in a couple of cases of a blow up, sell out completely, and take my tax loss. My other marker is my personal situation. When BAC gets to TBV - $14 I will likely reduce my position by a third, mostly the leaps, and pay down the mortgage. I am becoming increasingly itchy to do something else in terms of work (ie. quit my day job). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Its funny you mention the word franchise with BAC. During the dark days two years ago, and even last year, there were arguments that BAC was going to lose their deposit bases. A couple of us argued that bank assets are stickier than people believe. This has turned out to be very true! Banking, it turns out has something of a moat, that is not easily broken. Al, it appear that Gio just posted a presentation on Floats and Moats by the Fundoo Professor. Well, guess who has such a strong deposit franchise in the US that it's almost like float for the company. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 My other marker is my personal situation. When BAC gets to TBV - $14 I will likely reduce my position by a third, mostly the leaps, and pay down the mortgage. I am becoming increasingly itchy to do something else in terms of work (ie. quit my day job). That's awesome. I'm also selling some at around TBV. I won't sell the warrants, but I'll sell some common. I need to buy out my landlord (who wants to sell). He granted me a lease extension until end of June 2014, and the clock is ticking. Plus I'll probably switch my 2015 $7 calls for warrants here soon. The prices are converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obtuse_investor Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Is Bank of America Looking to Round Up Some MBIA Wampum? Why did Bank of America (BAC) recently extend its tender offer for MBIA's 5.7% notes until 12/11, and eliminate the two conditions that would excuse BAC from purchasing notes after a successful note consent solicitation by MBIA? These two conditions were... Full Article: http://mbibaclitigtion.blogspot.ca/2012/12/is-bank-of-america-looking-to-round-up.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Will need to watch Highlander again. This is like the quickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Babyface-Bandit-Bank-of-America-Branch-Newport-Beach-Robbery-182480641.html Shoot! How does this affect our investment thesis on the warrants, Eric? And things had been going so well...I guess it's time to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Babyface-Bandit-Bank-of-America-Branch-Newport-Beach-Robbery-182480641.html Shoot! How does this affect our investment thesis on the warrants, Eric? And things had been going so well...I guess it's time to sell. Branches only have a maximum of $100k in cash in the vault (something like that). Better to directly raid the company treasury... via the warrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Customer service representative(CSR) allowed to have cash of $2500- $3000 not locked in the main branch safe, the excess amount must to be stored in branch-wall safe to prevent losses. To get to the” branch wall- safe” would not be possible, unless it is the major bank robbery with hostages ect… Hence, warrants and common looks very appealing, as way to get in to bank’s pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 BofA, U.S. Bancorp Must Face Mortgage Trustee Lawsuit http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/bofa-u-s-bancorp-must-face-mortgage-trustee-lawsuit.html probably insignificant in great scheme of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Prasad Are you going out for lunch today.We want to go out for lunch today. No, went for a big dinner last night...knew I had to give you guys a good morning...get over that $10 hump in a big way! ;D I'll be going for lunch tomorrow, so I'm hoping to get you guys to $10.65 at some point. Got a couple more lunches planned for next week, so we'll fly over $11 after that. Cheers! Ok, ok, no need to thank me...I got you guys over $10.65 today! So as I said, with the lunches I have planned for next week, plus our big office Christmas dinner on Friday, I'll get you all over $11 next week. We'll probably fall short of my tangible book by Christmas, but I'm hoping to get you guys to at least $12 by Christmas. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 , but I'm hoping to get you guys to at least $12 by Christmas. Cheers! That'd make a nice Christmas present indeed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Thank you Mr. Parsad and the rest of the board for teeing this one up. Seriously, this is T-Ball. Forget the pitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I just added some more earlier this week and am thinking about adding more. I am trying to blow it up and can't: 1. Litigation appears behind us 2. Old loans rolling off 3. New loans could blow up but thats highly unlikely due to tight lending 4. Operational risk, but probably not enough to get this to be a 0 I am really trying to see the downside because the upside seems massive to me, which could be making me biased. Also, just for fun here's a Kelly calculator: http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php. Assume this is a 1:1 reward to risk (20 or 0) with a 55% chance of it going to 20. Kelly says bet 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 BAC sells 300,000 square foot building in Columbia, SC. Only $26M, but I like that they continue to refine and streamline their entire operations. Once the legacy issues disappear, this sucker is going to hum! Cheers! http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/transwestern-brokers-sale-of-300000-sf-bank-of-america-plaza-in-columbia-sc-for-26-million-182610661.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FCharlie Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I just added some more earlier this week and am thinking about adding more. I am trying to blow it up and can't: 1. Litigation appears behind us 2. Old loans rolling off 3. New loans could blow up but thats highly unlikely due to tight lending 4. Operational risk, but probably not enough to get this to be a 0 I am really trying to see the downside because the upside seems massive to me, which could be making me biased. Also, just for fun here's a Kelly calculator: http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php. Assume this is a 1:1 reward to risk (20 or 0) with a 55% chance of it going to 20. Kelly says bet 10%. BAC reminds me of the tobacco companies. At the point of maximum pessimism, most people on earth thought the tobacco companies were finished. They were hit with lawsuits week after week. They were evil. They were the target for most critics. They were even the target of the President. Banks are today what tobacco was twelve years ago. To sell BAC here would be like selling Philip Morris in 2001. It has gone on to outperform for a decade more and still continues to do well. No one even talks about litigation as a threat to them anymore. The same will be for BAC and the other banks. Not selling out early during times like these is crucial in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I just added some more earlier this week and am thinking about adding more. I am trying to blow it up and can't: 1. Litigation appears behind us 2. Old loans rolling off 3. New loans could blow up but thats highly unlikely due to tight lending 4. Operational risk, but probably not enough to get this to be a 0 I am really trying to see the downside because the upside seems massive to me, which could be making me biased. Also, just for fun here's a Kelly calculator: http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php. Assume this is a 1:1 reward to risk (20 or 0) with a 55% chance of it going to 20. Kelly says bet 10%. BAC reminds me of the tobacco companies. At the point of maximum pessimism, most people on earth thought the tobacco companies were finished. They were hit with lawsuits week after week. They were evil. They were the target for most critics. They were even the target of the President. Banks are today what tobacco was twelve years ago. To sell BAC here would be like selling Philip Morris in 2001. It has gone on to outperform for a decade more and still continues to do well. No one even talks about litigation as a threat to them anymore. The same will be for BAC and the other banks. Not selling out early during times like these is crucial in my opinion. I definitely agree. And with the stress tests coming I think we are at a precipice of an enormous crossroads. Does anyone know the timeline: Early January - 4Q12 results and stress starts March - Stress test results announced 2Q13 - Capital can be returned Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 For those of you that like real estate investments. The bank is selling 24 acres that they were planning to use as an alternate worksite. As they say, its always best to buy from a bank wanting to get rid of something they no longer have a use for. The article has a link to the offering. http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/blog/bank_notes/2012/12/bank-of-america-to-sell-24-acre-site.html?ana=yfcpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 BAC sells 300,000 square foot building in Columbia, SC. Only $26M, but I like that they continue to refine and streamline their entire operations. Once the legacy issues disappear, this sucker is going to hum! Cheers! http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/transwestern-brokers-sale-of-300000-sf-bank-of-america-plaza-in-columbia-sc-for-26-million-182610661.html How much (dollar figures) real estate is there left for them to sell. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/11787045/1/retail-banking-sucks-but-bank-of-america-could-jump-50-hedge-fund-guru.html Some positive coverage of BAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 BAC sells 300,000 square foot building in Columbia, SC. Only $26M, but I like that they continue to refine and streamline their entire operations. Once the legacy issues disappear, this sucker is going to hum! Cheers! http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/transwestern-brokers-sale-of-300000-sf-bank-of-america-plaza-in-columbia-sc-for-26-million-182610661.html How much (dollar figures) real estate is there left for them to sell. Anyone? Just a rough estimate, but before they started selling/leasing alot of their real estate, I had it estimated at about $5-7B conservatively for only their stated corporate offices...roughly about 55-60 properties, offices, etc. Of that, they have sold only about 15-20% of the properties, so that means that they still have the bulk of their real estate. A few of the properties may have been packaged in deals for other banking/investment assets, but I would say that they still have a ton of real estate. That doesn't include the hundreds of bank branch properties they own outright as well throughout the country. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StubbleJumper Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It seems to me at the current price the A warrants are still the most attractive, would like to verify with some of the more knowledgeable memebers first if you don't mind. Let's say the bank will earn $1 per share next year and $2 per share by 2019. For simplicity I'll have earnings go up linearly ($0.167 per year for 6 years) and they return 66% of the earnings to shareholders. This means from the beginning of 2013 until 2019 the company will return a cumulative $6.93 per share via dividends or buybacks. You basically get the capital appreciate above the strike price for a negative cost. Does this make sense? I'm not too sure that I understand what you're angling at. Are you referring to the strike price adjustments that occur in response to dividends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yes Stubble - thanks for your response. I figured it out though so I deleted my question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjone Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 If I remember right it is really impossible to figure what the impact of the buyback will be, because it depends on the impact the buyback has on the stock price. It might be wrong on that. I remember it confused the hell out of me and I had to re-read it about 4 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 If I remember right it is really impossible to figure what the impact of the buyback will be, because it depends on the impact the buyback has on the stock price. It might be wrong on that. I remember it confused the hell out of me and I had to re-read it about 4 times. The buybacks are the same as with the common, I presume you are talking about the warrant adjustment when dividends ar paid. It's easier in layman's terms using an example. Example A: You own 100 shares of common. Suppose you get a 10 cent dividend per share when the stock is trading at $10, then you buy 1 extra share with that dividend. You now own 101 shares of common Example B: You own 100 warrants Suppose you get an 11 cent dividend per share when the stock is trading at $10, then your warrant adjusts to 1.01 share convertable, and the strike is lowered by 10 cents. Your 100 warrants now convert in aggregate to 101 shares (100 x 1.01). Plain and simple. The higher the price per share when a dividend is paid in Example A, the fewer common shares your dividend can purchase. Same logic applies with the warrants as with the common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I changed flies Sanjeev. Now I think Mr. Market will bite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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