Myth465 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 They moved it because they have good news and want to stop the bleeding in the price, and the cascade of analyst downgrades, or they have bad news and want to get it out there while the share price is already selling off ;D Sorry I know that's not what you wanted, maybe hedge your bet, buy shares and bonds? I am guessing slightly reduced revenues, decent FCF, holding of the dividend, and updates on the integration / synergies that are positive. FTR probably sucks if you project out decreases in revenues over the long term, if you believe Management on Integration, Stabilization in Revenues, and projected synergies though then it should work out well. I am skeptical, but like and believe Management. Q4 and Q1 are very important quarters. My leaps are taking a beating, but if we hit $7.50 I do quite well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 With the potential yield on this thing I am having a really tough time not buying shares! I wish I had held off and not bought so much at $7! Anyone care to share how much they have weighted this in their portfolio? It's about 3.5% of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 With the potential yield on this thing I am having a really tough time not buying shares! I wish I had held off and not bought so much at $7! Anyone care to share how much they have weighted this in their portfolio? It's about 3.5% of mine. I dipped my toe into the 2014 $5 LEAPS last week. They seemed asymmetric to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 As of Dec 31, 2011 it is 1.19% of my portfolio... My book value is 7.86 as I am still underwater BUT loving the dividend! :) I am considering doubling my position but still not sure. S UPDATE: I just performed an in-kind transfer of my FTR shares from my US$ cash account into my RRSP account so my new book value will be $4.29. Has anyone started adding at this price? The 18% dividend is VERY tempting!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwericb Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Like you guys I am also in around $7 and thinking about buying more but really don't want to risk any more on this. As far as percentage of portfolio - was perhaps 3%, but a lot less than a few months ago :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yeah, we are all in the same boat. It is extremely cheap and the dividend is to die for if it can be maintained. Thanks, S Like you guys I am also in around $7 and thinking about buying more but really don't want to risk any more on this. As far as percentage of portfolio - was perhaps 3%, but a lot less than a few months ago :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-bone1 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 If they cut the dividend in half right now - which I do not think will happen - you still get an 8-9% yield (and I assume substantial equity appreciation from here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Island Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If everybody on the board who bought at $7 would reload on their positions FTR might move up some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 If everybody on the board who bought at $7 would reload on their positions FTR might move up some! LOL Just send Mr. Watsa an email asking him to double down. That would help a tad bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Started a small position at $4.30 today. Certainly a speculative play but I think worth the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Who has added to their position? I am debating doubling my position at these prices but the market is pricing in a dividend cut. I cannot wait till the earnings call as we need Maggy to start delivering on revenue growth, additional integration savings and affirmation on the dividend. This can turn really quick but is the market seeing something we are not? S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 10, 2012 Author Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is the biggest bargain I see in the market. If the div is cut though it will be dead money with a 10% yield until integration savings hit the bottom line, and revenues stop falling. I cant see Maggie buying while knowing she would be cutting the Divi. I think one can listen to the call and buy after. Even if the stock runs till $5, its still a steal. I cant help but think I could be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This has been on my watch list for so long. It's nice to see it crashing like any dividend stock should, I can finally do my homeworks on this one. Yield is really a great source of profit for me, some people are chasing it, get burn, sell, then I'm there to pick up a bargain. BTW I'm still waiting for REIT to crash, the question is not if it's when. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arden Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 How is FTR better than France Telecom (FTE)? FTE has a FCF yield of ~25% at its current price, half of which goes to pay down debt and the other half is given back to the shareholders as dividend with a 12% yield. It's more diversified geographically, and more diversified in its operations (Internet infrastructure, digital tv, cell phones and fixed line phones). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ_Value Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I promised myself not to get in until I can listen to the call and look at numbers and get a feel that promised integration is going as planned etc... But come on... the stock is about to go below $4 for crying out loud!! Mr Market is teasing me to get in. But still the fact that Wilderotter was buying recently isn't enough for me to commit. So I'll wait for the 10-K to come out but it sure looks like a tempting gamble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wow, it looks like I will have to do that in-depth analysis despite the laziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wow, it looks like I will have to do that in-depth analysis despite the laziness. will be interested in your analysis. I am thinking I was wrong on this one. I may have forgot that-Mr Market is right most of the time (but not always). & Most turnarounds don t turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is weird, why did they move up the earnings release? Frontier Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: FTR) plans to release fourth-quarter 2011 results on Thursday, February 16, 2012 after the market closes and to host a conference call that day at 4:30 P.M. Eastern time. Previously, the release and conference call were scheduled for February 23, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Because the stock is getting killed. Might as well move it up. Get the bad news or good news out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Because the stock is getting killed. Might as well move it up. Get the bad news or good news out. Its interesting how it might be the uncertainty that is killing this thing. I can see how the self reinforcing trading pattern might be from those not focusing on value or fundamentals e.g. people selling because price is going down +/- effect of any short sellers/momentum players. I hoping that date moved up because they had a good quarter or at least things are working out close to what was projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 How is FTR better than France Telecom (FTE)? FTE has a FCF yield of ~25% at its current price, half of which goes to pay down debt and the other half is given back to the shareholders as dividend with a 12% yield. It's more diversified geographically, and more diversified in its operations (Internet infrastructure, digital tv, cell phones and fixed line phones). I never looked at this one before. Will dig in a bit. Do you know what is causing the current negative sentiment about the stock? Is it just euro troubles or anything company-specific going on? The dividend seems to vary a lot from year to year. What makes you think it'll stay up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 How is FTR better than France Telecom (FTE)? FTE has a FCF yield of ~25% at its current price, half of which goes to pay down debt and the other half is given back to the shareholders as dividend with a 12% yield. It's more diversified geographically, and more diversified in its operations (Internet infrastructure, digital tv, cell phones and fixed line phones). I never looked at this one before. Will dig in a bit. Do you know what is causing the current negative sentiment about the stock? Is it just euro troubles or anything company-specific going on? The dividend seems to vary a lot from year to year. What makes you think it'll stay up? I found this article, as maybe a starting point: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/161222/france-telecom-fte-upsides-and-risks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 People think the dividend will stay up because there is FCF to sustain it, and the CEO stated she thinks it is safe & purchased 50,000 shares. This is a 'dying' business, revenues are projected to fall BUT if synergies can be attained FCF should still provide excellent long-term returns. There is a lot of risk involved with buying a merger because synergies often do not pan out and management hoped. I don't know anything about the CEO's past successes or failures, does anyone have info on her track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S2S Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 We looked at FTR a while back and passed. With all due respect, we don't view Ms. Wilderotter's buying as a compelling buy signal because (1) similar to SHLD repurchases by Eddie Lampert (who is in all likelihood a superior security analyst), most of Wilderotter's buys have occured at much higher prices and (2) of various studies / noted investors' commentary that more often than not, management are terrible at determining whether its own stock is a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Agreed S2S, lousy reason to get more conviction on a stock imho. Shane.smith made a good point as well, especially given Verizon's track record of spinning off parts of it's business. There also seems to be very little growth in its broadband segment and probably to much decline in it's other business segment but I'm far from an expert on this company. Just not seeing what the extreme bargain is here. It's cheap but it comes at a decent risk as far as I can tell and I'd rather not count on synergies too much before I actually see them occuring a bit. Just my 2c. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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