Guest ValueCarl Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think I need to revisit this position thing with SEAM while focusing on their YOY filings for comparison purposes instead. Especially if Nasdaq is posting share counts inclusive of convertibles also, as I think may be the case. If that's true, then they did increase their position in the final quarter by approx. 58MM shares inclusive of approx. 6.5MM in shares underlying call options since the quarter ending September 30, 2010. What's interesting is the fact that, at 2010's end, they're including as "underlying convertible bond options" in the total of 62,070,004, the calls in the amount of 6,480,000 on top of the convert bonds in the amount of 55,590,004 shares. All I can say is either way, SEAM owns a hell of a lot of toilet paper! http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=LVLT&selected=LVLT&FormType=Institutional SOUTHEASTERN ASSET M... 9/30/2010 479,768,538 (4,463,108) (0.92%) $585,318 December 31, 2009 as follows: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000080798510000010/lvlt13g9.txt Item 4. Ownership: (a). Amount Beneficially Owned: (At 12/31/09) 486,504,075 shares. This amount includes 55,590,004 in shares underlying convertible bond options. (b). Percent of Class: 28.7% Above percentage is based on 1,695,365,252 shares of Common Stock outstanding. December 31, 2010 as follows: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000080798511000025/lvlt13g10.txt Item 4. Ownership: (a). Amount Beneficially Owned: (At 12/31/10) 537,757,880 shares. This amount includes 62,070,004 in shares underlying convertible bonds. (b). Percent of Class: 31.1% Above percentage is based on 1,731,280,970 shares of Common Stock outstanding. ©. Number of shares as to which such person has: (i). sole power to vote or to direct the vote: 221,512,516 shares. This amount includes 6,480,000 in shares underlying call options. (ii). shared or no power to vote or to direct the vote: Shared - 270,478,758 shares. This amount includes 55,590,004 in shares underlying convertible bonds. Securities owned by the following series of Longleaf Partners Funds Trust, an open-end management investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as follows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 No worries. I should have looked at the filing anyway before commenting. The call options are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolce2think Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 There was a hint about the new ip adress standard in previous posts. Does this mean, that the P2P streaming feature could be the future? My thinking was a bit (or more totally) wrong, as I just learned about the unicast, multicast, P2P versions of streaming. The bandwidth of the industry as Crowe mentioned (during Dan Rayburns Summit) is around 100 to 120 Tbit/s. Yet it is misleading to use, since every route has its traffic and multicast etc. "expands" this. Maybe he meant the simultaneous long haul capacity of the big backbone providers combined. Prices for storing data seem to be on a steeper downtrend as bandwidth, hence the "push" to the edges of the network. So the way I interpret it is, that it is not the architecture that is better with (3) than Akamai, rather that (3) can undercut them since they own the lines and centers. Still traffic seems to be growing obviously in the long haul as well. It seems simply, that the metro segment was less oversupplied than the long haul. Teleography indicates needs for expanding the submarine lines in 2013/4, Alcatel sees massive expansion needed. I take the industry insiders opinion always with a good grain of salt (since they are biased), but the stocks like JDSU et al. are telegraphing an replacement cycle, even an extended upgrading cycle coming. I think that (3) could see an important upturn in revenue in two ways: one is the supply/demand issue, this would be "the big one", where our Saudi Arabia (as it once was) of bandwidth holds all the cards. Another would be that (3) can simply make deal after deal in the CDN space, as OTT video gains huge momentum and the regulators do not impede it. Further as they make more direct deals (including the 100K buildings) etc. so to take business from the established telcos. This is what I hear the wise boardmembers complaining about........maybe the negative cash flow outlook is really indicating "investments directly related to customer contracts". As the downside seems to be protected by the NOLs, the value of the data centers and the metro lines, the break up value is surely higher than current EV. With SEAMs and Watsas involment which takes out all cash flow, holding the stock is like holding a very long term option for betting on improvements one way or the other. (3) and this industry has so many moving parts, but then there is this little voice in me saying "keep digging, peel the onion"...... dolce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 txlaw, more than one year ago but not two, I became disgruntled over the lack of LEAP's being provided by the option pits of Chicago for LVLT. As a result of such contact, it became "CLEAR" that those boyz were more than willing to enter into "contracts" specifically negotiated for earnest buyers and sellers of puts and call varieties. Now, I understand that US financial markets are governed differently as respects "historical corners" which had reared its pretty/ugly head depending upon which side of the coin you were on in the past compared to Europe, but wouldn't it be wonderful if the next time we cross at a US "CORNER," it is known to be a sustainable one, and one which leads a given security's price to "fair value" by reasonable men versus miscreants? "Bring it on!" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market 2008: Porsche and shares in Volkswagen During the financial crisis of 2007-2010 Porsche cornered the market in shares of Volkswagen, which briefly saw Volkswagen become the world's most valuable company.[8] Porsche claimed that its actions were intended to gain control of Volkswagen rather than to manipulate the market: in this case, while cornering the market in Volkswagen shares, Porsche contracted with naked shorts—enabling it to perform a short squeeze on them.[9] It was ultimately unsuccessful, leading to the resignation of Porsche's chief executive and financial director and to the merger of Porsche into Volkswagen.[10] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaf63 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Dan Rayburn on Global Crossing's letter to the FCC on last mile charges http://seekingalpha.com/article/251611-global-crossing-asks-fcc-to-regulate-intercarrier-fees-disagrees-with-verizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 When will Mr. Crowe step up to the plate with his own damn money? Mr. Reed is the beginning of a more favorable trend, however. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000122520811005177/xslF345X03/doc4.xml In the mean time, the crowd remained hush waiting for the Bambino, the Sultan of Swat, to step into the batter's box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Mr. Carl, do you hear that sound? It's the shark silently circling the prey. :-) :-) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ahead-of-the-Bell-Akamai-apf-139435637.html?x=0&.v=1 Let's see how much losing NFLX hurt AKAM this coming Q... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I hear it loud and clear, Brker_guy!!!!!! I wouldn't be surprised if the little "MOUSE LADY" had rushed back to her computer key boards after the conference with sell orders in mind, while she "gracefully" exits stage left seeking more solace in PIPE stories which were built to carry the world's content "streams" for decades to come debunking her own "white mice" theory. ;D <Akamai recently renewed long-term deals with eight out of 10 major media customers, including Netflix, but at lower prices that will hurt revenue in the first quarter, executives said. "I think with the high valuation on the stock, any slowdown is a negative," said Donna Jaegers, an analyst at D.A. Davidson & Co. But she said news that major media companies are willing to sign multi-year contracts with Akamai bodes well for the online video and entertainment business, which is still in its infancy.> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/09/akamai-idUSN0911990220110209 I do suspect; however, that not until "The Great Goldman White Shark" sinks his SELL TEETH into AKAMAI's flesh will a better "trading" entry point exist! Thirty pps and much closer to their blended share buyback costs, maybe? ;) Woe to Akamai owners for having caused (3) owners unnecessary grief! This is what one gets for placing their trust in descendants of "Star Gazers!" imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hark though Maties, the Mouse Lady's crew comes up for AIR frantically looking for cover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! UPGRADE: Akamai Tech (AKAM) upgraded by DA Davidson from Neutral to Buy. 02/10 10:06 AM Get more news on:SYMBOLS: AKAMNEWS TYPE: Ratings: Upgrades and Downgrades, Ratings: Upgrades, Analyst RatingsSECTORS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 But she said news that major media companies are willing to sign multi-year contracts with Akamai bodes well for the online video and entertainment business, which is still in its infancy Really? What major media companies is our favorite white mouse lady referring to here? Is WeeWorld a media company? AKAM is SO GOOD at web acceleration that they even get their dates wrong: http://www.akamai.com/html/about/press/releases/2011/releases_2011.html Carl, try to go to that link there and and click on the select arrow. These guys are so good they are reporting FY 2010 on Feb. 09, 2010. :D :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Nice catch there Brker_guy. You are very detail oriented! It kind of reminds me of this Harris Associates LLP filing their 13G for L3 Communications, stock symbol, LLL, under our Level 3 Communications, stock symbol, LVLT, the other day! I am still trying to figure out why this high flying "DEFENSE COMPANY" with very strong "communications" building skills inside of aircrafts and other military equipment, doesn't buy OUR(3)? Between the names and the logos, they are a fine match. ;D http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000081391711000077/0000813917-11-000077-index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 This is down right hilarious, Carl!!!! :D :D A value investing firm can't tell the difference btw Level (3) and L-3 Communications? What ever happened to the famous value investing mantra of understaning the business first before the price of the stock? Oh boy, I better go and get rid of the Oakmark funds from my wife's 401K. Thanks for sharing the filing... I am reading Rayburn's article on the GLBC's filing with the FCC on last mile toll fee charges. Sounds very familiar, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Carl, I think this is worth following. Can you believe that we, as a nation, are 20th on this list? We even trail Estonia and Belgium... http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/06/us-20th-in-broadband-penetration-trails-s-korea-estonia.ars And here is the President's plan to solve it: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/10/president-obama-details-plan-win-future-through-expanded-wireless-access Just don't ask me where we will get $15BIL for all of this along with the $53BIL for high speed trains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Ok, who amongst us LVLT die hard cult here wants to do the honor of calling up LVLT's IR or Sales Dept and give them an order? http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/fcc-will-remake-87-billion-program-for-world-that-no-longer-exists.ars The Commission's $8.7 billion Universal Service Fund and Intercarrier Compensation system was designed "for a world that no longer exists Ars Technica: Do you think that Congress will help the FCC with the Connect America fund? Any optimism here? It's a pretty tough Congress, I'd imagine you'd agree. Genachowski: As I said in my speech, we're really open to all ideas that would speed this transition. Let's do all we can to end the tyranny of these last mile monopolists and looters!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Brker_guy, Brker-guy, ye with little faith. Have you not lived sufficiently to witness the power of their "printing press" to create money by fiat inclusive of any idea wasteful or otherwise, especially to the detriment of mankind? The bigger question is whether or not these "money changers" have bought into truly innovative, radical, earth shattering "change" which doesn't necessarily aid and abet the old guard monopolists preceding it. Nice data points from which we must stay tuned into! 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Here came to market those Big Texas Bush Backed Ball Breakers with Enron roots talking about PIPE STORIES, many times PIPES LEASED as opposed to owned! Good time for Carlyle and Goldman to do a little distributing, I mean "SELLING!" (3) has TWELVE PIPES buried in MOTHER EARTH for these SOB's to VALUE! imo Kinder Morgan shares trade 6 percent above IPO price 02/11 07:11 AM HOUSTON (Reuters) - Shares of Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI:$31.8854,$1.8854,6.28%) traded more than 6 percent above their initial public offering price in early trading, signaling strong investor appetite for the U.S. pipeline company's assets. On Thursday, Houston based Kinder Morgan (KMI:$31.8854,$1.8854,6.28%) sold 95.5 million shares for $30 each in the largest U.S. energy IPO since 1998, according to Thomson Reuters data. Backed by private-equity investors including Carlyle Group and Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS:$167.1300,$1.7900,1.08%) buyout fund, Kinder Morgan (KMI:$31.8854,$1.8854,6.28%) upsized its IPO from the original plan to sell 80 million shares for $26 to $29 each. Kinder Morgan (KMI:$31.8854,$1.8854,6.28%) , which originally filed to raise up to $1.5 billion, is the biggest U.S. energy IPO since Conoco Inc's$4.4 billion offering more than a decade ago. The IPO is seen as a means for Kinder's private equity partners to monetize their investment and an opportunity for investors to access its vast network of pipelines spanning the United States and stretching 2,500 miles into Canada. Shares of Kinder Morgan (KMI:$31.8854,$1.8854,6.28%) climbed $1.82, or 6.1 percent to $31.82 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Anna Driver in Houston, additional reporting by Alina Selyukh in New York, editing by Gerald E. McCormick) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Harris, etal corrects their filing error. UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 SCHEDULE 13G (Rule 13d-102) Information Statement Pursuant to Rules 13d-1 and 13d-2 Under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Amendment No. 1)* Level 3 Communications Inc. (Name of Issuer) Common Stock, $0.01 par value per share (Title of Class of Securities) 52729N100 (CUSIP Number) THIS AMENDMENT IS MEANT TO CORRECT A PRIOR FILING MADE IN ERROR UNDER THE NAME OF LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS INC. DUE TO AN INCORRECT CIK CODE USED. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/794323/000081391711000083/lvlt123110ye.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Carl, you probably saw this article. I have to say that AKAM has a very good IR department. Right after their stock got clobbered, they put that department into hyperdrive. We haven't seen warp speed yet, but here you go: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_08/b4216032345752.htm?campaign_id=yhoo Rival CDN providers such as Limelight Networks and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) have pushed down the price Akamai can charge for basic CDN services. Sagan says the company's sales volume will make up for falling prices: Growing demand for Internet video delivered to everything from iPads to big-screen TVs will drive Akamai's CDN business from $400 million today to $2 billion within 10 years, he says. As Akamai expands into new markets, competitors are edging in on its core business. Level 3 won the high-profile Netflix (NFLX) account away from Akamai in late 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I am not so sure about that being a favorable PR, Brker_guy, or one to assuage employees fearful of some new owner beating down their doors. He has to keep the troops at bay comfortably settled down in the port. There is also much uncertainty on top of his nose bleeding P/E peppered across it as well. Other than that, it's a confusing PR when comparing "addressable markets" which he may or may not be playing in. Remember, these SOB's were talking about five billion dollar revenue targets during their December, 2010, dog and pony show where many of their hosts took liberty at bashing (3)! For example, in aggregate, assuming both numbers are not crossing over each other anywhere, there is only $4.5B in "markets" including one for two billion that will take ten years to get to if I am reading it right, as I know I am. Only an "Astronomer's" cousin, one with his head in the "stars" could confuse his audience like that! Woe to Akamai owners for attempting to lie while causing (3) owners unnecessary grief during the past couple of years in this space. It's time for (3) to PUT IT TO THEM! imo <Rival CDN providers such as Limelight Networks and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) have pushed down the price Akamai can charge for basic CDN services. Sagan says the company's sales volume will make up for falling prices: Growing demand for Internet video delivered to everything from iPads to big-screen TVs will drive Akamai's CDN business from $400 million today to $2 billion within 10 years, he says.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Brker_guy! You haven't had time to address my question to you about "LATENCY" and "The Holy Grail" invention you are part of? Why is it important to me as well as all internet subs paying their ISP's especially the cables at this time? Let's take last night, for example, when we chose to watch a T.V. program on Hulu during our chosen time, instead of the Networks normally broadcast times. This is Time Warner Cable in my backyard, so here goes: The STREAM SUCKED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am paying for that SUCKY STREAM! My family deserves better! I hope it was that Astronomer's cousin doing the CACHING! Other than that, we LOVE watching normal T.V. programs or other video content through our internet connections via PC's and/or lap tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Check out this article on the FCC's Allvid proposal: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/can-big-cable-block-the-google-tv-revolution.ars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 TxLaw, you are very observant. I was going to post that article too, but I said to myself, "Slow down with the information overload there, bubba". To be frank, I read arstechnica as often as brush my teeth every morning. I read that Telecomramblings and Dan Rayburn's blog every morning just to keep up with the industry. Carl, regarding your comments, I can give you some ideas to your wonderful streaming experience with TWC. Remember that wonderful graph that the NFLX fellows made for us on their streaming throughput and the carriers? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_gC6nMAI6mu8/TUHG6jsQq-I/AAAAAAAAADE/Bwe1fkAUxzA/s1600/isp_usa.png Look where your MSO aka Time Warner is on this chart. They are smack in the middle of the pack at 2Mbps for each stream. So, if Hulu encode their contents that are above this bit rate, say hello to "Choke City". :-) The second possible reason for your problem is: Bit Rate Throttling. If Hulu deploys Bit Rate Throttling to save BW, you might experience this crappy video quality. However, if Time Warner deploys Bit Rate Throttling, well, I'd say go get your lawyer's phone number handy. Time to call him up for a class action lawsuit... It's ILLEGAL for the MSO to do Bit Rate Throttling. Just ask Comcast. They got sued for it: http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ee791758(WS.10).aspx http://www.iis.net/download/BitRateThrottling I am one of those who truly believe that the choke holds are at the last mile guys. I have Cox in my area, and I do use Roku to stream from Hulu. I don't experience such problem. The Cox guys know that if they do it, VZ and T-Rex would come down with an offer that I can't refuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Looks like Longleaf has some words for the management of (3) http://www.longleafpartners.com/pdfs/10_q4.pdf Negative returns at Level 3 and Dell detracted from 2010 performance. Level 3 fell 36% for the year but had a 5% gain in the fourth quarter following news of becoming a primary carrier for Netflix. Because of the 60+% contribution margin from additional revenues, the growing demand for internet video should add meaningful free cash flow over time. The company has been slower to deliver growth than projected, particularly in the metro business. The short-term cost of hiring and training new sales people has impacted costs but not yet revenues. The transition time from orders to revenues in wireless backhaul has expanded because newer products demand more set-up time, and carriers are taking longer to connect. At this point success depends on revenue growth. Major debt maturities are three years away. Given that the cost to build the network was over $25 billion and that today’s enterprise value (debt + equity) is less than $8 billion, the company’s assets are severely discounted with several possible rewarding eventualities. As we said earlier in the year, we are neither oblivious nor idle regarding Level 3’s results and stock performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ValueCarl Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It would seem counterproductive for Hulu to denigrate potential customers' experiences by incorporating this method. It would also seem silly of Hulu to encode at higher bit rates than they know their provider is offering for a similar reason, i.e., denigrating the customer experience for blame to fall back on them. How can one be sure with ironclad proof who the culprit is? txlaw, that was a great article! thx, and always thx back to you, too, Brker_guy! <If Hulu deploys Bit Rate Throttling to save BW, you might experience this crappy video quality.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brker_guy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Try to speedtest.net to see what your internet speed is at home. While you are doing that, start a Hulu stream. You will see what you can get when you do that. Then, you really know who is throttling your network speed to your home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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