Jump to content

LVLT - Level 3


doc75

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Guest ValueCarl

I just returned from the local public library having had the most horrific internet experience ever in my lifetime on any coast. This was Time Warner Cable's territory to be sure. I literally spent one hour attempting to navigate around my gmail which wouldn't work! In one hour's time I was able to get one email finished! The connection made my old dial up modem service seem like state of the art! Internet 2, where are you because America is crying for being behind in the internet race!

 

Then I walk into my haircut salon for a visit only because I have no hair but saw my friend while heading to the store, and there is my lovely hair dresser, a nice Asian woman pregnant with her feet up on the chairs in the lounge area because business was slow. She had her lap top where it was designed for. We're talking-she speaks excellent English and I always help her with words she struggles with-and I am hearing what is probably "Mandarin" blazing a mile a minute in the back ground and an image of a woman talking in a pop up screen is embedded on the screen as well. It turns out she was talking to her family free as she described it, with live video, to China! It wasn't "Skypes" software and I neglected to source the company providing her the service except, again, the internet connection was Time Warner Cable. Truthfully, she mentioned it but I didn't catch it due to broken English and a legitimate customer having walked in.

 

What's the point? Well, there are a number of points including her ease to communicate to her loved ones in China, and me struggling at my PUBLIC LIBRARY to access my damn email account here in the US!  

 

However, the biggest point which bothers me most is this!

 

(3) is a $3.6B annualized run rate company with a market cap of less than $3B and more than $25B of PP&E investments still counting over a period of thirteen years to give Reese his dream. This is PRE-GLOBAL XNG and we've seen the charts post merger for how the numbers will be changing!  

 

<Netflix is blowing the doors off its business, with $3 billion in annualized revenue and a $12 billion market cap driven by the transition to streaming online video. In terms of hours watched, streaming surpassed DVDs for Netflix in the fourth quarter, but CEO Reed Hastings has been preparing for this moment for more than decade. The name Netflix itself always held the promise of movies delivered over the Internet. The problem, says Hastings in an interview today at the Wired business conference, was that back then they couldn’t stream movies over 56K modems.>

         

Here's another suggestion for these Wall Street scoundrels and STUPID control freak dynasties like the Rockefellers and Jay Rock, "if I could, the internet would be gone, poof" comments, Brker_guy.

 

Call The Rothschild Dynasty in Europe and have them PUT it to ROCKEFELLER beyond the "fair doctrine" work they did for (3)'s purchasing of Global Crossing. I won't forgive them for harboring a financial terrorist like Soros, but if they can drive a GAPING HOLE in those Rockefeller remnants of Standard Oil and JPM/CHASE fortunes, they would be FRIENDS of AMERICA for the time being!  >:(

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Carl, the network you can rely is out in force.  In the blog that I posted from Dan Rayburn, it said this that I failed to catch:

 

"Do trace routes for videos from Facebook and see where those are coming from. The evidence that Level 3 is winning more business is clearly out there and that means the share has to be coming at the expense of another CDN."

 

"Someone pointed out to me that all of the small objects for Twitter are now being delivered from Level 3, in what looks to be the exclusive CDN. I don't know who Twitter was doing this with in the past, but maybe someone else knows more details."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hi brker_guy, i have been on the board for some time and never really had any great insights to post something worthy on investments.

 

i have been following (3) and recently invested a little money from my 401k account. i have been reading up on the links you and Carl (and others) have been posting. i have a background in electrical engineering, though never used any of that knowledge in a career. some of your posts about b/w and shannon's theorem etc got me reading up on some of the fundamentals again. thanks for that.

 

i was able to research a bit on twitters cdn and i have attached my findings. hope that helps (3) followers.

 

regards

manoj

 

p.s thanks sanjeev for the wonderful board

 

edit: i could not find out anything for FB yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hi manoj, welcome to the LVLT chat and the place where I like to call "The Greatest Roller Coaster Ride" of your life. :D So, buckle up and enjoy the ride.  ;D

 

So, are you one of those smart EEs turning into "Easter Eggs Hunter"?  I put those words in quote because they come out of Charlie Munger's mouth, not mine.  :D  I am sure you will do just fine with LVLT.  If you can trace Twitter's traffic this, making money from LVLT won't be a problem for you.

 

Regarding Facebook, I think it's a little more work that you have to do to trace down their traffic.  What you would need to do is get a tool like WireShark  and then generate a video stream from Facebook.  When the video stream arrives at your PC, you will see the IP addresses and the routes that the stream comes from.  Hopes that help.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest ValueCarl

mbharadwaj, I like your research and conviction! Keep up the great work and welcome aboard! I pity the fools who must encounter the one two punch that might keep coming from you and Brker_guy together! Not only do I pity them, I think I must predict nothing except PAIN will come their way!  ;D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest ValueCarl

To board members evaluating this security, please put on your analyst hats and answer this question for me.

 

Since the announcement of the acquisition by (3) for Global Crossing, is it fair, accurate and plausible to be writing reports after yesterday's results about pending integration "risk factors" moving ahead, but not valuing any part of the "combined" entities according to # projections once they are joined together in marriage?

 

Stated differently, when is it fair to begin "discounting" the future combined numbers, knowing full well that, although not entirely guaranteed, the likeliness of the merger going through is 95 percent probable, even increasing as of yesterday with Global Crossing beginning to show signs of fatigue?

 

More than likely, we are less than eight months away from combining. tia     

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Carl, I like to call this an exercise in "fudiciary C.Y.A."  When an analyst can't sit alone in a room to come up with his own analysis of a company given the facts out there and has to resort to this kind of CYA exercise is pure idiotic...

 

These guys should go back to their MBA school and learn how to value a business all over again because whatever the Highest Priests of Finance have taught them at MBA school is not working out in real life...  They don't want to get the analysis wrong on the valuation of a company; so, they start writing about "risk".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ben Graham and TxLaw,  I listened to the CLWR CC last night, and this topic did come up for them because they are in the process of moving from WiMax to LTE.  So, it's kind of interesting that you brought up MetroPCS going to LTE.

 

Manoj, thanks for sharing your finding.  Quite interesting that they used Qwest and AKAM.  I guess AKAM is still breathing, but they need to remember, "Best Value Wins!"

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Myth, this was a great and  very revealing interview.  Look at how many times Reed mentioned the "Internet"  and that "fiber backbone" as the key enabling infrastructure. 

 

Sounds to me that he is making a pitch to be bought out by MSFT since he is on the board of Mr. Softee?  It can happen you know. :D

 

Now, I am kicking myself for selling my NFLX a few years too early...

 

BTW: I saw this on Forbes:

 

http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/2011/02/03/apples-next-multi-billion-dollar-business-connected-televisions/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few weeks ago, Carl wrote about the merger of LVLT and GLBC, and he named it "Level Crossing".  This didn't hit me until now.  Renesys had two very good articles about the enormity of this merger and anyone following Level Crossing by walking down the alta together:

 

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/04/level-crossing.shtml#more

 

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/04/qwavvis-the-battle-for-second.shtml#more

 

Somehow, I completely missed this point that Carl brought up...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest ValueCarl

Ben Graham, it's good to see you so optimistic early in the morning!  ;D For without optimism, the world's majesty is oftentimes lost.

 

One caveat on the "no taxes" portion of your well thought out write up. Unfortunately, our tax free runway ends at a little more than $6B constrained by time including the speed at which it will all be absorbed. It would have been significantly higher if rabble rousing elitists in America of the Rockefeller ILK weren't intent on the destruction of the free and open internet adding to the world's majesty. Like you and Brker_guy, I believe the "time" to absorb many years of LOSS REPORTS due to INTENSE capital investments, will be much faster than most criminal NY investment bankers think once "LEVEL CROSSING" marries. This beautiful blonde will be the hottest network on the planet once consummated.   ;)    

 

Other than that, carry on my wayward friend, and soldier!

 

 

       

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest ValueCarl

I have called him El Gordo on this board before. Others in his nation are finding it fit to describe him similarly as they "BUFFET" Slim using the court system to their favor finally. He may be heavy, and have a lot of brothers planted throughout the legal system down there,  but he's not Warren Buffett's or Bill Gates' nor Walter Scott's brother, as they probe more deeply in SUD AMERICA, I'm sure.  

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1KtScrqtbc

 

 

 

Last week, Mexico's Supreme Court handed the billionaire his biggest legal setback in years, ruling that his Mexican wireless company, Telcel, couldn't ignore decisions by the telephone regulator regarding interconnection rates while the company challenged those rulings in court, a tactic that Telcel has long used.

The move came weeks after Mexico's antitrust regulator levied a $1 billion fine against Telcel for alleged monopolistic practices. The fine, which Telcel plans to appeal and will pay only if it loses the appeal, was by far the biggest in Mexico's history.

 

 

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703730804576311352951033930.html#ixzz1LsI8qM5O

 

 

Until recently, Mr. Slim and the broadcasters had been on friendly terms, but tensions rose as technology blurred the lines separating their businesses, prompting Televisa and Azteca to offer "triple play" services: telephone, broadband Internet and TV.

Hostilities broke out in February, when Mr. Slim's entire stable of companies pulled their advertising from Televisa, arguing rates were too high. Televisa executives said the move was retaliation for an attempt by Televisa to stop Telmex from participating in DishMexico, a satellite-TV provider and rival to Televisa's own Sky service. Mr. Elias, the spokesman for Mr. Slim, denied that was the case.

The rivalry has taken on a personal edge as well. A Televisa executive said Mr. Slim wasn't amused by a series of sassy Televisa commercials that makes fun of Telmex's phone and Internet services by portraying them as a stuffy, overweight person in a suit. Mr. Slim is portly. Mr. Elias, Mr. Slim's spokesman, denied Mr. Slim was upset by the ads.

Shortly after, TV Azteca said it wouldn't allow Mr. Slim's companies to advertise on its network until Telcel lowered the interconnection fee that it charges rivals to connect to its network. Since then, Televisa has forged a business alliance with sometimes-rival TV Azteca, acquiring 50% of Azteca's Iusacell, a cellphone company, for $1.6 billion.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ben and Carl, how can we get a gig at LVLT?  These guys are big spender by hosting a meeting at the Burj Khalifa.  I hope they are linking up with a company like Etisalat to provide fiber to Burj Khalifa because that is one tall building that they are presenting at...  :D :D

 

http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/

 

We need to spread these messages around more often:

 

    The increasingly important role of video in total Internet traffic and the potential implications of that level of video traffic on ISPs and content providers

 

    The move towards television-quality and/or high-definition (HD) video over the Internet and the impact of that expectation on bandwidth

 

    New technologies, devices and platforms for enhancing the audience experience (eg. HD-quality video across mobile devices)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest ValueCarl

It's a good thing that the larger accounts for voting and proxy purposes came after the Global Crossing announcement and not prior, due to the way I voted them earlier. I would still like to see our Friends at Fairfax convert ASAP, but considering how smart this group of investors are working in partnership with their management team, I am just going to have to trust their ability to do the right things for the business when it becomes most appropriate.

 

I am going to apply a universally known Buffett principle to this Enterprise by; trusting my management team. The Global Crossing acquisition will be a pivotal maneuver ensuring greatness to this company once consummated. I wanted it bad, knowing it would be necessary to fill this plant up, and they gave it to me!   ;)

 

 

 

 

 

You have voted as follows:

Proposal(s) Recommendations of the Board of Directors Your Vote

01 DIRECTOR

1) WALTER SCOTT, JR.

2) JAMES Q. CROWE

3) R. DOUGLAS BRADBURY

4) DOUGLAS C. EBY

5) JAMES O. ELLIS, JR.

6) RICHARD R. JAROS

7) ROBERT E. JULIAN

8) MICHAEL J. MAHONEY

9) RAHUL N. MERCHANT

10) CHARLES C. MILLER, III

11) ARUN NETRAVALI

12) JOHN T. REED

13) MICHAEL B. YANNEY

14) DR. ALBERT C. YATES

For

For All Nominees

 

1) WALTER SCOTT, JR.

2) JAMES Q. CROWE

3) R. DOUGLAS BRADBURY

4) DOUGLAS C. EBY

5) JAMES O. ELLIS, JR.

6) RICHARD R. JAROS

7) ROBERT E. JULIAN

8) MICHAEL J. MAHONEY

9) RAHUL N. MERCHANT

10) CHARLES C. MILLER, III

11) ARUN NETRAVALI

12) JOHN T. REED

13) MICHAEL B. YANNEY

14) DR. ALBERT C. YATES

02 TO APPROVE THE GRANTING TO THE LEVEL 3 BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF DISCRETIONARY AUTHORITY TO AMEND OUR RESTATED CERTIFICATE OF INCORPORATION TO EFFECT A REVERSE STOCK SPLIT AT ONE OF FOUR RATIOS.

For

For

03 TO APPROVE THE AMENDMENT OF THE LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS, INC. STOCK PLAN TO INCREASE THE NUMBER OF SHARES OF OUR COMMON STOCK, PAR VALUE $.01 PER SHARE, THAT ARE RESERVED FOR ISSUANCE UNDER THE PLAN BY 100 MILLION.

For

For

04 TO APPROVE, ON AN ADVISORY BASIS, THE EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION PROGRAM FOR OUR NAMED EXECUTIVE OFFICERS.

For

For

05 TO APPROVE A PROPOSAL OF THE FREQUENCY IN WHICH OUR STOCKHOLDERS WILL CONDUCT AN ADVISORY VOTE ON THE EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION PROGRAM FOR OUR NAMED EXECUTIVE OFFICERS.

1 Year

1 Year

06 TO AUTHORIZE THE TRANSACTION OF SUCH OTHER BUSINESS AS MAY PROPERLY COME BEFORE THE ANNUAL MEETING OR ANY ADJOURNMENTS OR POSTPONEMENTS THEREOF.

For

For

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest ValueCarl

Ben Graham, I can see Brker_guy's friend, Sumner Redstone at CBS, drooling his TUMS furiously out of the corners of his MOUTH for being turned into a "QUEEN" after news like this as well as "BILLY BALLMER" paying TEN TIMES SALES for SKYPE, the money losing video/phone chat company ENABLED by our (3) beautiful blonde network. Do you think this Queen is dressing in drag now too?  ;D

 

If you haven't noticed, some including myself have been ridiculed on this board as though we should be frowned upon as misfit toys wearing "tin foil hats." For shame that some men care not who control the strings of the puppets they mistakenly believe are their masters while propagating lies. Some once said similar things about "Wacky Patty" Byrne who provided a most noble, patriotic, valuable service to all "global investors" in exposing the counterfeiting taking place on Wall Street in the form of illegal naked short selling. One can only hope that similar "conspiracy theories" I like to opine about from time to time are proven correct sooner rather than later!

 

For it's not impossible that, one day those men will be woken from their beds and all their work which they believed was their own will be SEIZED from them, while taking them away to Jail House Rock if they RESIST!  >:(  

 

In the mean time, at ten times sales for this "money losing" technology on our backbone, my back of the envelope Level Crossing valuation($57.5B net debt) is $17.00 pps assuming our inner eye of ownership cares to "BLINK." All aboard the (3) Freight Train taking us on a ride to OUTER SPACE!  ;)    

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-climb-after-85-billion-apf-3392466511.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=          

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TxLaw, wasn't it eBay that bought Skype $4Bil a few years ago, right?  Now, MSFT is paying $8.5Bil to get their hands on 650Mil subscribers?  Wow!  Amazing!!!!

 

I believe Skype is still using LVLT as a backbone provider.  I have a few friends who used to work for Skype, and they told me once that a lot of people who gets on Skype use the video conferencing or video chat.  So, imagine of the amount of video traffic being generated by those subs even if you just take 10% of those subscribers exchanging videos at any one time.  Skype is very widely used in Asia.  That is where their market penetration is. 

 

Well, Mr. Ballmer, looks like you are going to need A LOT OF Bandwidth soon, and I think Mr. Gates has a friend on the Berkshire BOD to introduce to you.  ;D :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TxLaw, wasn't it eBay that bought Skype $4Bil a few years ago, right?  Now, MSFT is paying $8.5Bil to get their hands on 650Mil subscribers?  Wow!  Amazing!!!!

 

I believe Skype is still using LVLT as a backbone provider.  I have a few friends who used to work for Skype, and they told me once that a lot of people who gets on Skype use the video conferencing or video chat.  So, imagine of the amount of video traffic being generated by those subs even if you just take 10% of those subscribers exchanging videos at any one time.  Skype is very widely used in Asia.  That is where their market penetration is. 

 

Well, Mr. Ballmer, looks like you are going to need A LOT OF Bandwidth soon, and I think Mr. Gates has a friend on the Berkshire BOD to introduce to you.  ;D :D

 

brker_guy, I can tell you from firsthand experience that Skype video conferencing will be awesome in a low latency world.  Once every month or so, my Mom actually arranges a multi-user video conference with her siblings in India.  She loves it, and Skype is one of the few technologies that she actually will discuss about being quality of life enhancing.

 

BTW, didn't LVLT just issue a press release about being Lync-certified? ;)

 

Also, see http://cdn1.level3.com/App_Data/MediaFiles/8/F/7/%7B8F73E1DB-64F9-4233-9589-DDBAD22DF868%7Dmsft_lync_001.pdf

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TxLaw,  I know.  I am frequent user of Skype myself to talk to my relatives and clients in Asia.  It's amazing.  I think this is Microsoft's strategy to combat Facebook and the social networks crowd.  You can not deny the existing usage base of 663Mil subs.  In one swoop, MSFT just got into the social media business and VOIP.  Skype's business is doing well too.  I carry a balance with them actively, and I renew my subscription on it every year.

 

I think we need to remind our IR people at LVLT to start getting out that message of Lync-certified if you know what I mean.  ;)

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...